Thanks for comments citizens and Seasons Greetings for 2012. For a review Twitpic review of our forecasts 2011 go to link on recent comments posts on WeatherAction website
The forecast for Ireland and Great Britain was updated by Piers at the end of November.That updated forecast seemed to be quiet accurate.I doubted his ability to forecast so far ahead but i have to say well done Piers for this Month.I didn't think it could be done.
Okay i like Piers theory and is certainly more accurate than the MET OFFICE, but this snow just didn't materialise in anywhere near the quantities that were forcast, very mild in the south has been all month not a sniff of winter sorry i really wanted it to snow just to shut the met office up
His prediction of DEC 15-17th being mild in Northern U.S.A. was accurate. I know because I live in this area, normally temps during the day should be about freezing, and they have been well above that.
The date as I write is December 14 2011. I live in nothern Sweden and we're having the warmest winter on record up here. It did snow a couple of days ago (for the first time this winter) but the temperature is now back up above 0 degrees centigrade and the snow is thawing. In short: You're not going to find many fans of Piers Corbyn up here. Somthing has gone VERY wrong with the weather (read: climate). Come up to Scandinavia and see for yourself!
Citizens, please note THIS FORECAST (first issued 16Oct in Madrid) WAS UPDATED. FOLLOWING CURIOUS EVENTS ON SUN. PLEASE SEE 29th NOV VIDEO POSTED ON CLIMATE REALISTS re DECEMBER - still top of hit list. Some parts of first statement hold but "Exceptional" cold Brit+Ire + West Europe to 28 Dec was changed. Colder than normal yes but not "exceptional"; much milder from ~28th still holds Thanks Piers
Citizens, please note THIS FORECAST (first issued 16Oct in Madrid) WAS UPDATED. FOLLOWING CURIOUS EVENTS ON SUN. PLEASE SEE 29th NOV VIDEO POSTED ON CLIMATE REALISTS re DECEMBER - still top of hit list. Some parts of first statement hold but "Exceptional" cold Brit+Ire + West Europe to 28 Dec was chaged. Colder than normal yes but not "exceptional"; much milder from ~28th still holds Thanks Piers
Charts are showing some interesting weather. The cold seems to edge southwards into UK but also goes into Western Europe. The 9th-12th looks promising for snow but then it warms after - however the models tend to revert to warm towards the end anyway. I believe Piers has done an update and said the blocking won't happen (yet?) and there will be warm/cold periods. A few l/t forecasts are looking to Jan for any persistent changes. As it is the jet stream has only just started being mobile.
The current charts do suggest snowfall is possible especially on higher ground in Scotland. However due to strong polar vortex over Greenland, any cold spells are likely to be shortlived. At this time of year this is perfectly normal for the higher ground of Scotland and is far from the exceptional cold Piers is talking about. For the UK to experience a prolonged, exceptional cold spell we need blocking to our N and this is unlikely due to a strong Polar Vortex over Greenland.
Any comments made are approved before they appear, but I'll try and ensure minimal delay. The only comments I'll delete are those which are abusive, rude or inflammatory. Comments of differing opinions are welcome as is any constructive criticism.
This forecast is very unlikely to be correct in my opinion. We are currently experiencing a very cold stratosphere, positive AO/NAO. The result of this means Dec is likely to remain mostly mild with only the odd shortlived cold snap. What is unlikely is any high lattitude blocking bringing prolonged cold spells like Dec 2010. I will add that I would love to be wrong as I enjoy cold, snowy spells of weather.
Latest GFS charts and Snow Risk charts show a run of intense LP systems running through Scotland peaking on Saturday with a particularly severe storm which will culminate in blizzards sweeping Scotland. Into Monday the risk of snow spreads southwards to clip the M4 corridor by this time next week. Suddenly we have LP to our NE and a raging Northerly gale for Dec 5th... For those who subscribed to the December forecast then smile smugly now!!!
@GBRIVORBIGUN Thank you for a valued opinion and your courtesy. What you say makes sense and I confess I don't fully understand Piers' forecasting methods, however should the unexpected occur contrary to the majority of current models the validation could prove 'more' significant. Perhaps I'm over optimistic but then the thought of seeing some snow..... I'll continue to update through the comments section. Thanks again.
@kargenlewis Meteorologists in a few decades time may look back at the vagueness of current forecasting and wonder how we ever coped as a race. Besides, the MET office short term forecasts are hardly more detailed and yet are often still wrong in predicting precipitation, temperature trends etc. (as I found out the last two winters).
Thanks for comments citizens and Seasons Greetings for 2012. For a review Twitpic review of our forecasts 2011 go to link on recent comments posts on WeatherAction website
pierscorbyn2 2 months ago
The forecast for Ireland and Great Britain was updated by Piers at the end of November.That updated forecast seemed to be quiet accurate.I doubted his ability to forecast so far ahead but i have to say well done Piers for this Month.I didn't think it could be done.
amb212212 2 months ago
@amb212212
Clearly you don't live anywhere in Western Europe.
manoffireandlight 1 month ago
Okay i like Piers theory and is certainly more accurate than the MET OFFICE, but this snow just didn't materialise in anywhere near the quantities that were forcast, very mild in the south has been all month not a sniff of winter sorry i really wanted it to snow just to shut the met office up
wpsmith62 2 months ago
His prediction of DEC 15-17th being mild in Northern U.S.A. was accurate. I know because I live in this area, normally temps during the day should be about freezing, and they have been well above that.
GregKoziol 2 months ago
The date as I write is December 14 2011. I live in nothern Sweden and we're having the warmest winter on record up here. It did snow a couple of days ago (for the first time this winter) but the temperature is now back up above 0 degrees centigrade and the snow is thawing. In short: You're not going to find many fans of Piers Corbyn up here. Somthing has gone VERY wrong with the weather (read: climate). Come up to Scandinavia and see for yourself!
hansjalv 2 months ago
Citizens, please note THIS FORECAST (first issued 16Oct in Madrid) WAS UPDATED. FOLLOWING CURIOUS EVENTS ON SUN. PLEASE SEE 29th NOV VIDEO POSTED ON CLIMATE REALISTS re DECEMBER - still top of hit list. Some parts of first statement hold but "Exceptional" cold Brit+Ire + West Europe to 28 Dec was changed. Colder than normal yes but not "exceptional"; much milder from ~28th still holds Thanks Piers
pierscorbyn2 2 months ago
Citizens, please note THIS FORECAST (first issued 16Oct in Madrid) WAS UPDATED. FOLLOWING CURIOUS EVENTS ON SUN. PLEASE SEE 29th NOV VIDEO POSTED ON CLIMATE REALISTS re DECEMBER - still top of hit list. Some parts of first statement hold but "Exceptional" cold Brit+Ire + West Europe to 28 Dec was chaged. Colder than normal yes but not "exceptional"; much milder from ~28th still holds Thanks Piers
pierscorbyn2 2 months ago
2nd of December today.... Sun is shining... Nice and mild outside in Hoo, Rochester, Kent, SE England... Not so accurate this year eh ?!
leebramp 3 months ago
@leebramp It is supposed to start snowing here in Switzerland today or tomorrow. so partly right I guess....
vanda028 3 months ago
@leebramp It is supposed to start snowing here in Switzerland today or tomorrow. so partly right I guess....
vanda028 3 months ago
Charts are showing some interesting weather. The cold seems to edge southwards into UK but also goes into Western Europe. The 9th-12th looks promising for snow but then it warms after - however the models tend to revert to warm towards the end anyway. I believe Piers has done an update and said the blocking won't happen (yet?) and there will be warm/cold periods. A few l/t forecasts are looking to Jan for any persistent changes. As it is the jet stream has only just started being mobile.
TheGingerZilla 3 months ago
The current charts do suggest snowfall is possible especially on higher ground in Scotland. However due to strong polar vortex over Greenland, any cold spells are likely to be shortlived. At this time of year this is perfectly normal for the higher ground of Scotland and is far from the exceptional cold Piers is talking about. For the UK to experience a prolonged, exceptional cold spell we need blocking to our N and this is unlikely due to a strong Polar Vortex over Greenland.
GBRIVORBIGUN 3 months ago
Any comments made are approved before they appear, but I'll try and ensure minimal delay. The only comments I'll delete are those which are abusive, rude or inflammatory. Comments of differing opinions are welcome as is any constructive criticism.
G2DU 3 months ago
@G2DU Hey i live in the south of the uk will i get any snow( enough to build a snowman) this winter.
WBCTproductionz 3 months ago
@WBCTproductionz Don't ask Piers - he has it hopelessly wrong so far
MrHarvey1968 2 months ago
@G2DU Hey i live in the south of the uk will i get any snow( enough to build a snowman) this winter.
WBCTproductionz 3 months ago
This forecast is very unlikely to be correct in my opinion. We are currently experiencing a very cold stratosphere, positive AO/NAO. The result of this means Dec is likely to remain mostly mild with only the odd shortlived cold snap. What is unlikely is any high lattitude blocking bringing prolonged cold spells like Dec 2010. I will add that I would love to be wrong as I enjoy cold, snowy spells of weather.
GBRIVORBIGUN 3 months ago
@GBRIVORBIGUN Comment today (see update link)
Latest GFS charts and Snow Risk charts show a run of intense LP systems running through Scotland peaking on Saturday with a particularly severe storm which will culminate in blizzards sweeping Scotland. Into Monday the risk of snow spreads southwards to clip the M4 corridor by this time next week. Suddenly we have LP to our NE and a raging Northerly gale for Dec 5th... For those who subscribed to the December forecast then smile smugly now!!!
G2DU 3 months ago
@GBRIVORBIGUN Thank you for a valued opinion and your courtesy. What you say makes sense and I confess I don't fully understand Piers' forecasting methods, however should the unexpected occur contrary to the majority of current models the validation could prove 'more' significant. Perhaps I'm over optimistic but then the thought of seeing some snow..... I'll continue to update through the comments section. Thanks again.
G2DU 3 months ago
I'm subscribing
DivinityzBeAsT 3 months ago
Thank you for the upload :)
DivinityzBeAsT 3 months ago
@G2DUhe is just looking at trends and patterns. And how the sun is behaving and how it effects the earth.. Anyone can do that.
sevensevenification 3 months ago
how can he be considered very accurate if his predictions are vague and rough.
kargenlewis 4 months ago
@kargenlewis how are they vague? he is literally predicting the time of snow for great britian?
TheAlexwile 4 months ago 2
@kargenlewis Meteorologists in a few decades time may look back at the vagueness of current forecasting and wonder how we ever coped as a race. Besides, the MET office short term forecasts are hardly more detailed and yet are often still wrong in predicting precipitation, temperature trends etc. (as I found out the last two winters).
owenhunt 3 months ago 3
@kargenlewis you sir are an idiot.
He just made predictions for specific weather on specific days about a month ahead. In weather forecasting that is almost unheard of.
tom432011 3 months ago 4