Aussie Bank Charts warning of a Banking Crisis

[steshaw71]

John, how do you "go short" here in Australia?

[BiggerThinking1]

1. If have 50% of my portfolio in property and 50% in PMs - and the property drops and commods rise so im net neutral - is no tax payable?

2. At exit time, if PMs have gone spacco as we all hope (like "buy house for 1000oz of silver" sort of spacco), can the cap gains tax be deferred by rolling directly into other assets like property or does it have to be cashed and cap gains tax? (This is important cos if not we will all be losing maybe 50% of our gains in cap gains tax at spacco levels.)

[KhmerD0g]

oh no banking crisis.

[12bamish]

I understand what you are saying however also possible is a breakout off chart due to a USD devaluation crisis.

[BigRoach1962]

thanks man



[tinslatee]

John, do you see the same pattern in the HUI gold index?

[NovusChaoMundi]

Flip a coin always works for me

[daveashe]

@NovusChaoMundi Make sure its a 999 silver coin that you flip

[ericlepic]

dont worry john alien are comming over to buy some silver and they got lots of money demand is gonna rise......just put pressure on the UN alien ambassador so we can only sell them silver no corn no copper no wheat only .9999 bullion

[STOPPUCKNOW]

great demo on the head and shoulders I thought you just flip the head....but math is good

[samsontiger1]

I just saw one of the Praying Mantisis on CNBC. (Praying Mantisis? you know, Soros, Breshenski, Alenski, Kissinger... Those Praying Mantisis's). The one I saw was Soros. John, you should ask him when the banks are scheduled for crisis, he knows the exact date and time. It won't surprise me if your chart is correct, but my guess is it won't happen until after elections. Try to get an interview with one of the praying mantisis!

[reverendjordan]

this vid was great for learning the head and shoulder patern and the rising wedge. great as usual. i'm pretty young and there are a lot of terms i don't understand or don't understand fully. if you could do a shor vid explaining what "going short or long" exactly is. i'd be very grateful. or if someone here can explain in a comment.

thanks

[Itsjames1]

@reverendjordan yea great Idea stella Do a video on going short long and explain how to profit!

[combatjm89]

This vid was valuable to me as a Yank. Now I understand head & shoulders patterns and what they may reveal. Thanks!

[AgrippasNotebook3336]

Heady stuff John. Funny, when you mentioned that it could be a mirror of the global markets I was thinking the exact same thing. Everything already seems to be sinking but maybe this is ominous to it speeding up very soon.

Thanks for the info!

[scutter4christ]

Thank you John. I always learn something when I listen to you and it's always interesting.

[yogiudo]

best to be careful shorting individual securities. Take for example an overnight pop to 35$

In an overnight pop you're risking 9$+ dollars, not 2$. I am not saying that the banks might come unplugged - but just becareful. For all you know someone might see your short and take you to the cleaners.

[ltse]

why just ANZ? what about CBA, WBC and others?

[DocBrewster]

I can see a head and shoulders patterns in the clouds outside my window - if u know what i mean.

[stellaconcepts]

@DocBrewster short it.

[parrothead2222]

How secure would you say the Perth mint is?

[stellaconcepts]

@parrothead2222 pretty darn secure... but not as secure as your own fort :)

[penguinistas]

9:56 it may not be as interesting, or perhaps a better description would be directly relevant but it was still interesting (for this American anyway) because while I have heard of the head and shoulders pattern, I had not heard of the "inverted" head and shoulders, nor had someone describe the way of estimating the potential rise or fall.

And of course what happens in the Australian economy may be mirrored in the US economy sooner or later.

[endlessmountain]

In regards to your H&S pattern on gold, I use a different math calculation for the price objective.

Thats because I am not a fan of Linear calculations because it is not accurate with large levels. For example if a regular H&S pattern has a top of $20 and and a neckline of $7 that means the target is $-6.00 per share which is impossible.

My target for the Gold H&S pattern is 1420ish because a gain from 700 to 1000 is 42%. Matching 42% on $1,000 gives us $1,420

[stellaconcepts]

@endlessmountain interesting... and makes sense too.

[DocBrewster]

@endlessmountain So some use linear - you use %age, someone else may use exponential - there are many paradigms and who is to say which one is correct? Where is the logical basis for any of this technical analysis horseshit - apparently its only right 55% of the time anyway - just random guessing up or down will be right 50% of the time! Then factor in the manipulation and you can call T.A. totally meaningless.

[dodoinurpants]

Do you think its safe to say that it is possible gold and silver could plummet like they did in 2008 based on the circumstances?

[stellaconcepts]

@dodoinurpants not as severe no...

[ozwasp]

90% of the time you will only lose money when you short - you feeling lucky??

[stellaconcepts]

@ozwasp says who?

[admthrwn]

@stellaconcepts murphys law says so. :)

[ozwasp]

@stellaconcepts I hope got out of those shorts... QE2 will mean stocks will continue to rise

[treysparker]

@ozwasp

What the hell are you talking about? Ive made most of my money shorting.

[ozwasp]

It's just following the US lead

[143DREWID]

The banking crisis was never departed from.

The recession was never departed from.

Welcome to the Greatest Depression.

If in doubt research the Great Depression profile, financially and psychologically. If one chooses to not research; you fit the 98% profile who lost EVERYTHING.

[PatriotsUnite2010]

@stellaconcepts You can use a block or book to draw lines as a guide with your mouse - holding down the left click while sliding along the guide

[kitten123456779]

You only have to see the attitude of ANZ to business customers regarding excessive fee hikes on business accounts, repeatedly offering by direct mail unsecured $20k overdraft accounts at 17.5% interest and massive ongoing account fees (whether you use the facility or not) to see that they are trying hard to screw every cent out that they can - I feel in desperation to raise funds..

[kitten123456779]

You only have to see the attitude of ANZ to business customers regarding excessive fee hikes on business accounts, repeatedly offering by direct mail unsecured $20k overdraft accounts at 17.5% interest and massive ongoing account fees (whether you use the facility or not) to see that they are in trouble and trying to screw every cent they can.

[stellaconcepts]

@kitten123456779 anz is involved in a $40m class action suit for that very reason at the moment.

[ShillBasher]

I learnt something interesting from this.

[sa11ee]

Hmm bhp and many non bank charts look pretty similar?

[SadisticMonkey336]

so...we take long put options on Anz?

[GuildF40]

I keep trying to explain this to friends of mine down under but they just won't listen.

Kettle's on :o)

[ShillBasher]

@GuildF40

Head and shoulder patterns you mean?, didn't know you were into the charting stuff, guildo. Your friends prolly think you're talking about shampoo.

Howz the leg doing?

[GuildF40]

@ShillBasher I am not in to this stuff mate. Lived there for a few years and mates bought & I said its a bubble.

Leg is VERY VERY annoying just took me 15 mins to make a coffee and it was nearly cold by the time I made it back to the lounge. Grrrr

[ShillBasher]

@GuildF40

Oh, oz housing. Oh well.. what can you do, m8?

Bummer bout the leg thing, I know EXACTLY what you're going through. Snapped my achiles tendon twice in 08. Huch fun (not) was had making, well actualy carrying cups of tea/ coffee. You need to get a slave who'll do everything for ya ; )

Little tip; only take one crutch when making tea etc'. Simples.

[trje246]

Great vid, i got the same results with my amaturish chart interpretations before i saw this to. So, very interesting, Always love ur vids mate! and i ment to say, i thought your questions were very good and well thought out, on the interview you uploaded the other day to. you have a great way of explaining all these things. thanks John!

[tokyorealestateman]

canada might be in the same boat...

[drutter]

Yeah!!!! Great charts, great video! This is one of the ways you shine and why your videos are so valuable.

[fal2grace]

Thank you John.

[cityslickeroz]

Interesting, Nice work

[ytgv3fc7]

@cbocquee corrections are never "just time" or "just price". And it will be very noticeably in price. That's the nature of what follows a +200 or more USD move in gold. Just look at the 10 year time-scale and you'll see only at the very beginning is this less pronounced (log-scale).

[charlesfuchs]

Sell everything, hide in the corner and dont do anthing lol

[frontier1701]

Seems like this charting stuff is 50% accurate.... Similar to flipping a coin....

[stellaconcepts]

@frontier1701 in my opinion the longer the timeframe, the more accurate it is.

[ytgv3fc7]

@frontier1701 ya, I can appreciate wanting a target price but one reason why I never quote "resistance and support" is because the math doesn't really indicate those levels exist/are defined, to me. And in purely nominal dollars vs purchasing power or trade benefit (I guess that's "arbitrage") it's not going to work. I like producing charts of each closing date+price because then it's really telling you what's expected.

[polarbeach]

@frontier1701 you are right, but if you add some funadmanetals and momentum trading into the mix you might bump that up to 50.01 % good luck.

[frontier1701]

@polarbeach LOL... Excellent!!!! Thank you.... The "fix" is now "in"

[nztitirangi]

great stuff, cheers!

[limitedplay]

August 2 citigroup was at 4.19 then dropped 20%.

Today its a 4.19, I went and checked because I remember thinking about shorting.

[limitedplay]

thats still under a 25% DROP IN PRICE.

[CuriousTOknow1]

(Trade Weighted USDIndex)

research(D)stlouisfed(D)org(S)­fred2(S)series(S)TWEXBMTH?cid=­105

(Currency Weights)

federalreserve(D)gov(S)release­s(S)H10(S)Weights

(AUD)

research(D)stlouisfed(D)org(S)­fred2(S)series(S)DEXUSAL?cid=2­87

The time to push for the inflation try is now. There cannot be a resting period. imo

By the strong inflows into Australia(Asia&Emerging) i cannot see any crisis yet. Statistically the market has run prior and after the elections. the target is 1500 Gold by end of year.

[uncertaintyprinciple]

Since the silver market is manipulated, can't they also induce an artificial head-and-shoulders pattern to irritate investors?

[superfuzz]

why is bank world barbara the most related video lol?

[goedeck1]

wait didnt you use the shoulder in the goold chart (1030+330) so the ANZ would be (using the lower shoulder) 20-4=16?

[stellaconcepts]

@goedeck1 i used the high as the neckline, since thats the breakout zone.

[4rcane]

anyone know when the Australian Bank Deposit Government Insurance expire? I remember the government made it 2 years

[rayomans]

You're getting too technical now. All we know is this gold market is looking extremely bullish. We have no idea where it's going, none whatsoever. Don't even try to pretend we can figure it out. Just ride the wave to where it's going, to whatever that may be.

[ytgv3fc7]

@rayomans I've pretty much figured it out. Look at my video "where gold is going" and you'll see I called the rise on the curve we're seeing, at the time we're seeing it start (2010 july) MONTHS before the event. My more detailed prediction videos peg the rise and fall of gold from march to july. Full math showing so you can build your own models and charts (all prediction charts, date+price, every day)

[ytgv3fc7]

@rayomans I've been too busy to make a video but here's what's up next: peak at 1440 (1430 to 1450) then retracement over 6 weeks down to 1310-1330. Then it's +going to take 5-8 weeks, perhaps even 20, to hover up to the 1400 level. You can very much expect the next level that follows to be 1700. From Friday's North American close to the 1440 level you can safely use +1.333% per week (1.01333 factor per 5 trading days) exponential gains to get the date.

[ShillBasher]

@ytgv3fc7

Wowzers, you're brain operates on binary 1.0, huh! Wish you could upload a vid that would help me understand your analysis better, I watched a couple and just couldn't follow your points, shame. You have a lot to share, that much is clear.

[ronpaul2008rocks]

I'm staying long gold and silver. Per the last COT report, commercials are net buyers in the face of huge price increases. During the same time, large and small speculators were net sellers. To me, that says, "stay long" and "maybe big moves (short squeeze) up before any significant pull back". I guess that the next COT will show ever more commercial buying.

This is my take, but of course I've got stops in case I'm wrong.

Thanks for the video, please keep them coming.

[stellaconcepts]

@ronpaul2008rocks commercials are net sellers, they just lightened the load a bit. if commercials are the reason why you're long, then you've been lied to whoever told you commercials are net long - they are still very much net short. very much.

[ronpaul2008rocks]

@stellaconcepts John, I just meant that they were net buyers for the week. Of course they're hugely net short overall. But it is extremely unusual for the commercials to be net buyers during a strong up week -- they always sell into rallys. I can find a few past examples, but it was only when there was a big down day in the week, and there was no day like that between 9/29 and 10/5. Per the last COT, they covered 2000 shorts and added 1000 longs for the week while silver went up $1.

[eliden]

@1:53 your computer has accumulated a lot of static charges, you need to restart your computer to reset the static off your computer components. i hate that horrible sound.

[superfuzz]

@eliden lol did u just make that up?. it's an sms being recieved by a phone close to the computer. doesn't that happen where u are? it's very common here

[ytgv3fc7]

@superfuzz @eliden specifically it's a GSM / GPRS radio (cell phone). CDMA phones don't do that to your TV, mic, radio, etc.

[ytgv3fc7]

@eliden are you sure it's not the discomobulator? Maybe the flux capacitor? Perhaps it's the auxilliary warblefarpers.

or... ;)

[troybr79]

What do you see happening for the strength of the AUSD? It has been climbing against the USD (or the USD has been falling is more accurate) and my AUSD CD's have been doing fantastic. I'm comteplating moving them (upon expiration) to another currency if the AUSD is going to go into a decline.

[itubeutude]

GFC worse event of your lifetime. You forgotten the recession of the 90's??? ps. You need some screen capture software.

[stellaconcepts]

@itubeutude I have actually forgotten about it :)

[itubeutude]

@stellaconcepts lucky you. I'll never forget it.

[angie7dino]

the Alt A`s like the Subprime is 1 Trillion and they are resetting in the U.S at the moment and they forecast peak foreclosure mid 2011.. then the Option Arms resetts after that and that one is about 500 billion.. so maybe this is reflecting whats going to happen over there ?

[stellaconcepts]

@angie7dino I agree... its all shaping up

[stellaconcepts]

@cbocquee yes there is talk of that already.

[lindabebe835]

should i be waiting for a pull back to buy gold? you say you think people are going to sell and i wonder if the price may drop significantly.

[stellaconcepts]

@lindabebe835 why would you be a buyer at all time highs?

[itubeutude]

@stellaconcepts maybe cos it's going higher.

[stellaconcepts]

@itubeutude I prefer to buy when silver (gold) is scaring everyone about how low it could go - not how high it could go.

To answer your questions, yes I would be waiting for a pullback. But I've also been buying silver since it was $11... So I have the luxury of not having to make this decision you seem to have to make now. I dont envy your position

[dowhatuwill]

Very interesting John. Thank you.

[patriotsundergod]

you should get Qcharts

[Doenietmeermee]

recommended to look at your previous post, agreed and thanks again