Silver Update 11/26/11 Silver History Part 1

[lanastus123]

Would you like to put a timeline on these prices occuring? 5, 10, 20 years?

[TheyRiseBand]

Interesting analysis. Though, I'm highly skeptical of $1,000/oz. silver. It would take a hyperinflation of the U.S. Dollar to reach that price. I'd be a bit more conservative, at $200-$300/oz.

I expect silver to outperform gold by a factor of 4, and am investing in the two metals, accordingly, at a 200:1 ratio. This means 200 oz. of silver bought, for every 1 oz. of gold bought. I come to this by multiplying the current silver/gold ratio (about 53:1) by my opinion of a 4:1 performance ratio.

[paulrprichard]

The monetary history of the USA has many twists and turns, there is Constitution which states only gold/silver coins be used in payment of debts, public and private, but then there have been 2 Central Banks issuing paper currency, the first from 1791-1811 and the second from 1816-36 and the non-Federal non-Reserve from 1913 to present, so my question is: how has the 600 year chart of the real price of silver extrapolated the pre-1792 price ?

[paulrprichard]

Another highly informative video from BrotherJohn.

On the Monthly Nearby 30-Year T-Bonds (CBOT), while people should be aware what this 30 year long rising trend is characteristic of a bubble, please can someone tell a novice to a chart such as this what the vertical axis is denominated in ?

[adasilvas]

another great video!!! All this talk about correction and its short term affect on gold/silver is killing me...Are we seriously going under 20-25?? hows that even possible? I understand that deflationary pressure can cause massive selloffs but this must a PAPER thing. Although paper is still controlling the price-which brings me to my 3 questions:

1)when will the paper price deviate from physical

2)will it really go under 20? with or without QE3

3)what price is expected in the summer of 2012?

[adasilvas]

@adasilvas And whats this talk about SocGen: QE3 In March 2012 to Take Gold Up to $8,500/oz??? anytime I here any BANK estimate a price i think - down down down...

Is it possible we can have another margin hike? I've purchased silver from $18 3 years ago to $40 a few weeks ago...but now I'm looking to buy in the mid to low 20's not sure if that going to happen or not...

[JRCrowley]

Great video - but friggin's tired of that Chuck Norris ad.

[rytis1]

How can silver be 1 to 1 with gold if it's mined at 8 times greater quantity?? It's delusional. Also, unless one or two world powers makes it monetary metal again, even 1 to 8 is wishful thinking.

[07161417]

What sort of time frame are you seeing this +$50 breakout? ...and to $15000/oz?

[elysianfury]

17:30 wow

[frankdusome]

@garryjlindsay You can be sure QE3 and 4 and 5 are coming...that's all they have left or the currency will collapse. This is why the US and Canada are so concerned about Europe because they are stalling the printing presses as they see hyperinflation on the way. The US is printing to debase it's foreign debt and collapse the fiat as it is debt saturated. Better get some silver before it's too late.

[mattyelle1]

how could the fed go bankrupt? they print currency for the cost of manufacturing. so the fed cant go bankrupt until the usd is worth less than paper

[SIERRAHPBT]

What most people do not understand or can not get their heads around is that what is coming is the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of the world. To many people are thinking in terms of dollars and what a paper dollar buys. The Dollar is dead folks. You will be starting fires in your fireplace with paper dollars. What will count is how many physical silver ounces you have in your possession. I don't care if you pay 5.00 or 500.00.

[BrotherJohnF]

@SIERRAHPBT Amen

[SIERRAHPBT]

John I agree, I think it will go to a 1 to 1 ration and actually go to 3 ounces of gold for 1 ounce of silver.

[SIERRAHPBT]

great video John. Your time and expertise are very much appreciated.

[SIERRAHPBT]

@garryjlindsay I disagree. the problem is the shortage side of silver. over 7 billion people on the planet and less then 1 billion ounces of silver exist above ground. Production can not be increased within a 5 year period.

You do not need qe3 to come, even tho it has.

[AccuracyMarked]

G/S ratio of 3 will be the lowest it'll ever go before it settles into a 6, with improved recycling... but again that will take a few decades. For the short term...$80 to $150. is coming rather quickly...; that $3000. silver will take a few decades. Riding the G/S ratio to wealth is the easiest financial ticket known to mankind. Story goes..."Everyone saw it coming but few acted". Kings and Queens look to the limited natural resources...we should too.

[Fullrubberman]

BrotherJohn. Great Video, although I think the estimate of 15k is a little low for silver. Assuming we do have a stable currency in 10-15 years as the inground supply is depleted you can only imagine how much it will be worth. Far more than gold! Imagine what gas would be worth if oil ran out and the only available gas was the gas in peopes tanks only. I do think that the government at that point will just make it illegal to own silver because it's so vital to so many things! Love your Vid!

[jrobb316]

I don't think we will ever see anything close to a 1:1 gold/silver ratio. As the ratio closes more people will go to gold. Gold is money, held by central banks, and has always been the money of kings. I like silver a whole lot and see more upside to it, but i wouldn't count on anything more than a slight overshoot of maybe 10:1. But at these prices, stacking silver is a no brainer.

[billenvall1234]

@LP101A You have not been watching very long, have you?

[LP101A]

I will stop here to say that while the markets are manipulated to such an extent that I believe it to be dangerous and perhaps foolish to trade on margin and the way the contracts are written it clearly shows that there is no insurance or protections whatsoever and 'they' can decide to change the game to fit a scenario which just happens to divest you of your holding unless of course you have a pre-arranged deal with a (as Bob Chapman puts it) "Bum Buddy" from the PWGFM. Where's Corzine?

[JanRichardus]

@garryjlindsay "silver may go down to $12-15 ". that's paper spot price. If or when that happens I doubt we'll be able to buy physical at that price.

[ShoppingIdiot]

@garryjlindsay When QE3 is unleashed as you say, that will save the DOW and Silver & Gold from going down.

Still, BEFORE The FED will have an EXCUSE to launch QE, the stock WILL have to go down and Silver/gold will follow.

Then, and only then, will BEN be able to launch QE.

Just a thought.

I don't think that the DOW needs to go to 6200, like in 2008 before the FED acts.

[FractalSigns]

BrotherJohnF, thanks for your informative videos. Also thanks for linking to my silverseek article: Silver Price Forecast: Why Silver For A Monetary Collapse? Part 1. It is much appreciated. Hubert

[alycephoto]

I love those links with the charts. And I hope we don't have to wait a few hundred years cuz I'm not gettin any younger!

[kingrichard24k]

Bottom line keep stacking because it ain't going down ! thanks

[superdiza]

"will go on until the federal reserve is bankrupt.." how can that ever be so?

[Alexiscom1]

If I would put one OZ of silver on one side and all goods I can buy with 15.000 USD today I would choose the pile of goods. 120-200$ OZ seams more logical value today. If silver would be monetize Wolrd wide tomorrow 500-1000$.

Mining gold is much more expansive 1/1 ratio is possible but I would say that gold will be a much better buy then silver.

[MrEdogaba]

Thank you very much BrotherJohnF for another perfect silver update.

Good work, thank you

[SloterMFmeyer]

Silver is being used in electronic applications for it's precious metal characteristics and mostly in minute quantities where price does not matter much. The only substances in the world that can have the same or comparable function are other precious metals and they are all more expensive than silver still. For silver use to be discontinued new electronic foundational systems need to be developed.

In any case, when the economy comes crashing down the gadgetcraze wil die. Silver or no silver.

[ILiveInMyParadise]

Love your channel Brother John!

- Brother John S

[SloterMFmeyer]

How can the FED possibly be bankrupt?

[Kolbe71]

The way I see it is that as all currencies are essentially vastly overvalued with respect to sovereign debt, a huge period of deflation is inevitable. This will bring down the price of everything including wages, goods and yes, precious metals. Just my view (of course this assumes no govt intervention, QE, etc.)

[Hyperborea2012]

Did Brother John say $15,000 an ounce silver? I don't see it. If by some miracle he is right, I would be worth 25 million dollars... and then I woke up.

[EricShermansChannel]

@ 8:00

The spike was caused by the drought in Texas.

@ 19:55

Drop was due to the setting of the US currency.

[BrotherJohnF]

@garryjlindsay I didn't sell any silver in 2008. I bought more

[SilverCitySlicker500]

@BrotherJohnF Yeah if it goes down again I'm buying not selling, becuase I have food, water, guns, ammo and body armor!

[KonaChuck22]

BJF. The CEO of the mining company you referred to yesterday is calling for $120-$200/ounce silver in 3 to 5 years. When does your $15k/ounce silver happen. I assume your price is in 2011/2012 dollars?

[MrFlash285]

I have been following your work for over almost a year now... Thank you for all of your time:O) I hope one day we get what we have been waiting for!

[renegado100]

Silver Miners should organize a world silver cartel and eventual became the next global central bankers !!

Its a shame they are so stupid working with Bankers on short selling silver !! Miners are really working against themselves hedging their future production !!

INSANE INDEED !!

[TheSilverguy79]

Nice presentation but it means nothing if the USA goes into a hyperinflation, your using cooked government numbers instead of more credible Shadow-States numbers to show inflation's, so what if silver is $15,000 an ounce if gas is say $1500.00 a gallon all this talk is meaningless unless you have a proper formula to base it on meaning we know hyperinflation is coming the problem is we don't know the degree or full outcome of it yet until its too late.

[BrotherJohnF]

@TheSilverguy79 Everything I presented was assuming a stable currency

[ShoppingIdiot]

@TheSilverguy79 ...you say, "...so what if silver is $15,000 an ounce if gas is say $1500.00 a gallon?"

Well, I am guessing, but, I think that would at least keep up inflation?

We wont be stuck with $31 fiat to buy $1500. gas.

We will have an ounce of silver that we paid $31 for today and it will be worth $15,000 when gas is 1500, so at least I could buy 10 gallons of gas.

What am i missing?

PS.  Where can I find Shadow-States numbers, as you indicated?

[MrSilvergoldsilver]

@TheSilverguy79 "so what if silver is $15,000 an ounce if gas is say $1500.00 a gallon"

NO one will buy gas at that price. cant afford it. They cant afford $3/gallon, what makes you think that $1500 is affordable, lol. Oh it wont be late at all. It will be late for the sheep at $1000/oz while a new gold standard is formed and we cash in on land and realestate and ride that ponzi up again for the next 40 years.

[lawrencecheok]

@TheSilverguy79 wouldn't silver be worth more than $15K/oz in an hyperinflation scenario? Silver (and gold) as hard assets will "appreciate" along with other hard commodities at the same rate (if not more) as paper currencies depreciate.

[freesk8]

I wonder if the historical gold/silver ratio was so static because govts fixed the ratios via their coinage. Once gold and silver are allowed to fluctuate with supply and demand (since the late 1800's?) we should expect no fixed ratio. Supply of gold and silver are totally unconnected, as are demand. I see no reason why the gold/silver ratio should be predictable or constant these days. I don't even think it tells us much of anything, really. Now, money printing, THAT tells us something...

[ArgentPure]

@garryjlindsay Here are some stats they may interest you!

Average Cost Gallon Of gas

1930 10 cents , 1940 11 cents , 1950 18 cents , 1960 25 cents ,

1970 36 cents , 1980 $1.19 , 1990 $1.34 , 2009 $2.051 ,

Average Cost Loaf of Bread Food

1930 9 cents , 1940 10 cents , 1950 12 cents , 1960 22 cents ,

1970 25 cents , 1980 50 cents , 1990 70 cents , 2008 $2.79 ,

Once the world crashes, the worlds people will demand sound money! The music is going to stop soon and the PTB have no chairs left!

[freesk8]

Regarding your historical inflation adjusted prices, you can't compare them to today's because costs of production have plummeted because of technological innovations. Chemical fertilizers, pesticides, combine harvesters and GM crops have all made food products MUCH cheaper to produce. Since prices tend to be "sticky" to the downside (producers keep their profits for a while after implementing cost saving tech.) you can not really compare yesterday's prices to today's and make projections.

[oraclenvec]

I'll try to survive with/out my silver until then!

[MrRichardstott]

Brilliant analysis. Hugely enjoy your work. Thank you.

[SilverShark427]

Hi John,

Thanks for your vid tonight, very refreshing and informative. In the last few seconds you mentioned you think silver is on its way too $15,000 an Oz. Did I hear that right or did you mean $1,500 ?

I have a gif image of the Silver chart in a 800 x 468 56.7 kb file if you like.

[BruceBoppoTiemann]

@SilverShark427 If he thinks silver could go to $1000/oz at 15:1 ratio to gold, and if he thinks that silver could trade at 1:1 with gold, well, that's 15 times more valuable than under the 1:1 scenario, therefore, meaning $15,000 / oz, assuming all else remains equal.

[chuska8383]

BrotherJohnF,

Your videos are fantastic.

[freesk8]

I've heard it said that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid. I agree that a huge meltdown is on the horizon, but none of us has any idea how far that horizon is away from us. Who knows how long the govt and the banks can manipulate gold and silver prices? Almost every chicken little who has said the sky is falling has been wrong. So how do we know we stackers/preppers are right? We don't, despite our compelling stories. Imminent crash? Maybe not?

[ArgentPure]

@garryjlindsay

You are completely missing the point! Bread, milk, a gallon of gas have all risen over time via inflation to the prices they are today! Because of the manipulation of the silver price it has a spot price of approximately $35US per oz today! Had silver NOT been manipulated then bread, milk etc would be the same price that they are today while silver would be $1000 per oz!

[mechanicalengineer3]

Silver price on Nov. 30, 1923 in Weimar Republic hit 543,750,000,000 marks! The real debt of US is >$100 trillion if you include the social security, medicare etc. There is every reason to believe that hyperinflation can hit US in the next 10 years. This time it's a bit different, US dollar being the reserve currency, is going down the drain and it will take the whole world with it.

[thesilverjournal]

@mechanicalengineer3 My time frame for hyperinflation is sometime within the next 6 months to five years. Silver is set to hit min. $1,000 / oz. in todays purchasing power, gold should hit min. $10,000 and housing is set to decline 70%-80% in real terms considering that the printing press will be rendered useless in keeping mortgage rates down, the gov will no longer be able to back mortgages, and Americans will become much poorer and move in together or leave the country altogether.

[TheBloodOcean]

Amazing update brotherjohn, a portion of my stack I am planning on keeping until my retirement years and that's about 40 years away. Should be worth something when I retire

[RockyMountainPrepper]

Thanks for the update.

[pdxeddie1111]

food commodities are kept low through government buying programs, the farmers like it because it guarantees them a certain price for a certain percentage of their yields but it doesn't allow free markets to reign and they don't get the big prices they would if government was out of their business

[puapake]

Eric Sprott brought up a very important point recently, that money flowing to physical silver and gold is at a 1 to 1 ratio. Yet the price is at 50 to 1. This is unsustainable.

[freesk8]

@puapake Not if silver is far more abundant or easy to pull from the ground...

[puapake]

@freesk8 The layman on the street thinks silver is abundant, but if you have been paying attention, there is less above ground silver available for investment than gold by a factor of seven. The underground ratio has also been shrinking due to decades of extraction.

[Ernster86]

If silver is $15,000oz nobody is going to use it for industry. Heck if the price is $500 very little will be used. When Silver was $50 kodak came out and announced their looking for alternatives. So how is Silver going to get that high whenway less will be used for industry? Unless you think it can become a complete monetary money like Gold is. Please explain

[ArgentPure]

@Ernster86 Research "third stage of a Bull market" to get your answer!!!

[renegado100]

@Ernster86 THAT IS THE NAME OF THE GAME : Silver should not waste it on industrial application but as real currency worldwide !!

Only central banks don't want us to use Silver as currency but their useless fiat paper ...they want us to believe their paper is the real deal !!

[Ernster86]

@renegado100 Silver is the 2nd most used resource in the world. Its not exactly a waste. Making it currency would be a waste no? If the price is too high then it wont be used in many products anymore thus increasing its demand therefore I dont know how the price can ever get to such heights as many thing.

[Ernster86]

@Ernster86 i mean it would increase its supply not demand.

[renegado100]

@Ernster86 When a commodity price as silver is manipulated you can provoke a waste of it !!

The only way of a perfect allocation of any resource is a free market price setting ......price manipulation only cause a disaster and dislocations on markets.

Using silver in many products DOES NOT MEAN is the smartest thing to do !! Maybe we need a silver $500 to start looking for new innovation...silver (as oil) won't last forever .

[SIERRAHPBT]

@Ernster86 really? what are they going use? for many industrial uses silver is the only material they can use to make products. There is nothing that can replace silver. Some of you people need to get on Ted Butlers website and get educated. Many of the questions I see asked or some pointing to as fact have been answered 10 years ago. Many of the people commenting on here have no clue what they are talking about.

[UNENSLAVER]

282 views, 19 likes 0 dislikes @ 7:30PM Pacific time 11/26/2011

[natritious1]

@assilvertried7x maby so, but not if a candy bar is worth $1,000

[ArgentPure]

$1000.00 silver works for me!

[outherree]

$51,000 is a bit better.