In 100 years, even the economist prediction of $5 a barrel may yet be right. China's effects on commodity prices are not an overnight effect, but as the 70's shows, even an oil cartel could not make more than a decades-or-so impact when facing long-term effects of the incentive price enticing human ingenuity.
South, oil was at about $81, when inflation adjusted the target price was $63.29, now oil remains closer to $79. You have your winnings to play with, how about a similar agreement, more time for long-run economic forces to outweight short-term or even cyclical fluctuations from rising economic giants and for technology/ingenuity/substitutes to catch up with the incentive of a higher price. I say by 1/1/30 inflation-adjusted WTI oil will be below $79. $3,000? or gentleman's agreement option?
Impressive, by wrongly speculating that oil would be used up so much as to cause a rise in prices, he still won. Maybe South actually predicted the rise of China and its use of oil now rivaling that of the US, and he predicted the rise of India at the same time I'm sure. Two billion people in those countries helped in their ability to buy&use oil products by the same economic theories that Sout bet against. Ironic.
On Jan. 4, 2010, the price of a barrel of oil was $81.51 (WTI Cushing). As a result, Dr. South won the bet and Dr. Madjd-Sadjadi wrote a check for $1,242 (about $1,000 in Oct-2000 dollars).
How ironic. By attempting to illustrate the error in a theory, you were forced to make a counter-prediction. If your prediction doesn't hold and oil continues to drop, you in effect give more credibility to the theory you were trying to oppose. This will, unfortunately, casts doubt on anything you teach if you are wrong.
This is why many professors take a neutral stance to avoid influencing their students one way or another.
Looking at the South Madjd-Sadjadi bet ending in 2010, the price of oil may be below $50 without even adjusting for inflation, which is just a hialrious slap in the face to South.
South Madjd-Sadjadi 2010 just a year and change left.
Where will his name-calling "zap-religion" banding taunts and mocking be when science again wins out over time and in most cases... maybe he will start to respect economic sciences as something more than a religion when he has to pay up some money... read!
Wow, this guys' bias blinds him so blatantly that he does not believe that you can look back at the last 1000 years' trends and believe that any of those trends will maintain predictive power in the future.
In other words, forget Hume, forget the definition of insanity, forget the scientific method, let's just make this planet green!
He has to admit that he chose a shorter time horizon on purpose and focused on just one resource hoping for a lucky break, rather than challenging LTtheories.
I will bet you that in 2010 you will be able to travel at a cost low enough that inflation adjusted it will be cheaper per mile than now dicounted if oil was 12 a barrel.
I predict we will have a collapsed dollar and hyper inflation. Our empire is nearly bankrupt. Im sorry to our younger generations for my greed and shortsideness.
I agree with your predictions. However I was not short sighted and I did nothing to cause this problem. Rathar it was planned by IMF, CFR, and other secret societies
In 100 years, even the economist prediction of $5 a barrel may yet be right. China's effects on commodity prices are not an overnight effect, but as the 70's shows, even an oil cartel could not make more than a decades-or-so impact when facing long-term effects of the incentive price enticing human ingenuity.
eljefejesus 1 year ago
South, oil was at about $81, when inflation adjusted the target price was $63.29, now oil remains closer to $79. You have your winnings to play with, how about a similar agreement, more time for long-run economic forces to outweight short-term or even cyclical fluctuations from rising economic giants and for technology/ingenuity/substitutes to catch up with the incentive of a higher price. I say by 1/1/30 inflation-adjusted WTI oil will be below $79. $3,000? or gentleman's agreement option?
eljefejesus 1 year ago
Impressive, by wrongly speculating that oil would be used up so much as to cause a rise in prices, he still won. Maybe South actually predicted the rise of China and its use of oil now rivaling that of the US, and he predicted the rise of India at the same time I'm sure. Two billion people in those countries helped in their ability to buy&use oil products by the same economic theories that Sout bet against. Ironic.
eljefejesus 1 year ago
Blatant, shameful lie. You "forgot" to adjust for inflation!!!
eljefejesus 2 years ago
On Jan. 4, 2010, the price of a barrel of oil was $81.51 (WTI Cushing). As a result, Dr. South won the bet and Dr. Madjd-Sadjadi wrote a check for $1,242 (about $1,000 in Oct-2000 dollars).
southdb 2 years ago
How ironic. By attempting to illustrate the error in a theory, you were forced to make a counter-prediction. If your prediction doesn't hold and oil continues to drop, you in effect give more credibility to the theory you were trying to oppose. This will, unfortunately, casts doubt on anything you teach if you are wrong.
This is why many professors take a neutral stance to avoid influencing their students one way or another.
Spectre11B 3 years ago
Looking at the South Madjd-Sadjadi bet ending in 2010, the price of oil may be below $50 without even adjusting for inflation, which is just a hialrious slap in the face to South.
South Madjd-Sadjadi 2010 just a year and change left.
Where will his name-calling "zap-religion" banding taunts and mocking be when science again wins out over time and in most cases... maybe he will start to respect economic sciences as something more than a religion when he has to pay up some money... read!
eljefejesus 3 years ago
Wow, this guys' bias blinds him so blatantly that he does not believe that you can look back at the last 1000 years' trends and believe that any of those trends will maintain predictive power in the future.
In other words, forget Hume, forget the definition of insanity, forget the scientific method, let's just make this planet green!
He has to admit that he chose a shorter time horizon on purpose and focused on just one resource hoping for a lucky break, rather than challenging LTtheories.
eljefejesus 3 years ago
I will bet you that in 2010 you will be able to travel at a cost low enough that inflation adjusted it will be cheaper per mile than now dicounted if oil was 12 a barrel.
powerdbyfood1 3 years ago
I predict we will have a collapsed dollar and hyper inflation. Our empire is nearly bankrupt. Im sorry to our younger generations for my greed and shortsideness.
eastwood24 3 years ago
I agree with your predictions. However I was not short sighted and I did nothing to cause this problem. Rathar it was planned by IMF, CFR, and other secret societies
johnknoefler 2 years ago
You either have not read enough of Julian Simon's work or you purposely misunderstand him.
powerdbyfood1 3 years ago 3