I guess that what Nassim intends to say is not that past was predictable, rather that nowadays the world is more complex due to its interdependencies that can lead more often to black swans with a much higher impact.
I agree with him on everything but one. I think the world has always been unpredictable. In the past as well as today. I do not think todays is less predictable, it was and is unpredictable.
We are not good at predicting the Black swans, yet white swans are predictable. The problem is we don't have good models to predict black swans so we label them as random events. There have been many black swans in past which are still black, yet there have been many other black swans which are now white swans and predictable example the lightning.
what i suppose this means is that even whilst we create our models for predicting the outcomes, we should not be lulled into taking them as "truths" or infallible tools that one goso far to the extent of preaching that dogma to others. this is not about the black swans per se, but is about human nature's preference for matters to be presented as white swans, and our tendency to exclude the idea of black swans being possible.
I know this is not about black swans and what he means. I have red his books. His argument is about statistical modelling of rare events and now tries to expand it. Although he has a valid point in demonstrating difficulties in predicting rare events, but he merely criticises and has not produced a pragmatic alternative or anything near. overall since not all elements of systems and consequently thier cause and effects are identified as enthropy increases risk measures are bound to failure.
"he merely criticises and has not produced a pragmatic alternative or anything near"... which i believe is the challenge to finance experts and economists, ie, to produce that pragmatic alternative. but i think the real challenge is for them (experts) to stop exploiting other people's ignorance by preaching matters as "truths", posing that they (experts) know better (which Taleb argues that they really don't) and so enjoin society to follow them down their road which they paved themselves.
wow... bastante interesante el punto de vista del autor, y que difícil es cambiar los paradigmas, en lo personal tiendo a creer que las relaciones causa efecto en las cosas son una ley, y que nuestra incapacidad para comprender estas relaciones (los diferentes factores que intervienen en un echo actual respecto a un hecho del pasado)no significa que no existan,, solo manifiestan nuestras limitaciones, aun con estas, creo que se debe seguir investigando "no solo ir descubriendo"
creation comes from freedom without intention. Like a problem must be solve through trial and errors and observing - more importantly free from conclusions and beliefs. - that is the solid core of Philosophy/ Physcology . IF you don't do this then there will be divisions and attacking. Nassim did a good job studying it.
¿Tienes mas material de este autor?, es muy intereseante. Gracias.
KTALOGO 8 months ago
@KTALOGO En mi Blog de Babalum encontrarás más material.
blogbabalum 8 months ago
this is a really bad interview by Charlie Rose I think... he doesnt really get to the core of what Taleb's book is even about to be honest...
neb967 10 months ago 2
I guess that what Nassim intends to say is not that past was predictable, rather that nowadays the world is more complex due to its interdependencies that can lead more often to black swans with a much higher impact.
Babalum
babalum2 1 year ago
I agree with him on everything but one. I think the world has always been unpredictable. In the past as well as today. I do not think todays is less predictable, it was and is unpredictable.
IlGiglioNero 1 year ago
Hi Reza
I fully agree with you!
Babalum
blogbabalum 3 years ago
We are not good at predicting the Black swans, yet white swans are predictable. The problem is we don't have good models to predict black swans so we label them as random events. There have been many black swans in past which are still black, yet there have been many other black swans which are now white swans and predictable example the lightning.
2007reza 3 years ago
what i suppose this means is that even whilst we create our models for predicting the outcomes, we should not be lulled into taking them as "truths" or infallible tools that one goso far to the extent of preaching that dogma to others. this is not about the black swans per se, but is about human nature's preference for matters to be presented as white swans, and our tendency to exclude the idea of black swans being possible.
baldassare01 3 years ago
I know this is not about black swans and what he means. I have red his books. His argument is about statistical modelling of rare events and now tries to expand it. Although he has a valid point in demonstrating difficulties in predicting rare events, but he merely criticises and has not produced a pragmatic alternative or anything near. overall since not all elements of systems and consequently thier cause and effects are identified as enthropy increases risk measures are bound to failure.
2007reza 3 years ago
"he merely criticises and has not produced a pragmatic alternative or anything near"... which i believe is the challenge to finance experts and economists, ie, to produce that pragmatic alternative. but i think the real challenge is for them (experts) to stop exploiting other people's ignorance by preaching matters as "truths", posing that they (experts) know better (which Taleb argues that they really don't) and so enjoin society to follow them down their road which they paved themselves.
baldassare01 3 years ago
I now agree with your view. Cheers.
2007reza 3 years ago
wow... bastante interesante el punto de vista del autor, y que difícil es cambiar los paradigmas, en lo personal tiendo a creer que las relaciones causa efecto en las cosas son una ley, y que nuestra incapacidad para comprender estas relaciones (los diferentes factores que intervienen en un echo actual respecto a un hecho del pasado)no significa que no existan,, solo manifiestan nuestras limitaciones, aun con estas, creo que se debe seguir investigando "no solo ir descubriendo"
sanchofatal 3 years ago
creation comes from freedom without intention. Like a problem must be solve through trial and errors and observing - more importantly free from conclusions and beliefs. - that is the solid core of Philosophy/ Physcology . IF you don't do this then there will be divisions and attacking. Nassim did a good job studying it.
dan020350 3 years ago