Gary Shilling on How to Invest in the Age of Deleveraging and Deflation, Part II

[misterman6000]

Deflation , I wish we can have some; but it is not coming. Deflation implies an increasing value of the dollar. With deflation it is important to look at the country that is experiencing the deflation; in a country as overleverage as the US deflation spells Bankruptcy. The dollar is a paper note of a defaulting issuer. Its value will fall there is no stopping it.

[4295eye]

@misterman6000 Unless we switch to a gold standard. If thats a very big if, the FED is printing paper not value but that doesn't take much brain work. Why are the chinese buying up our gold silver and land? Equity they need something to back our green paper bills. Where is milton friedman to put these idiots in there place.

[lucas822]

Is someone vacuuming @ 9:17?

[Minyanville]

@lucas822 yes, actually that would be one of the building custodians in the hallway. Haha, never thought someone would notice that.

[144jr144]

Shilling seems like a pretty astute fellow. His lack of emphasis of the specific technology of oil and cheap energy is notable to me though. As technology has sped us to the exhaustion of cheaply available oil, gasoline prices and budgets worldwide have led the various other ripple effects of destabilizing and deflating markets. Check out TheDominOILeffect d o t com

[2100v]

"Commodities are increasing because of a weak dollar." At least he got that one right. How does he think it will ever get strong again with all the US debt and 7 T held by foreign banks? If you want a sure bet, the dollar lost 97% of it's value since the creation of the FED. Do you think it will continue down another 97% in the next 10 years. I bet when I need to sell my gold and silver in 20 years, I will be able to buy more with it than the same dollars would today.

[2100v]

Say what? if the stock dividend is 3% and inflation is 2% that is a 5% real yield??? In my layman, non economic's Phd brain, it looks like a real 1% yield to me.

[144jr144]

@2100v he said 2% deflation and 3% dividends. I presume that you may not be familiar with the phenomenon of currencies rising in purchasing power, such as when debts default (AKA de-leveraging) and people stop discounting cash with unexamined projections that credit will be more and more easily availabkle the further into the future we go.

[fuckoff187]

lol 30 year bonds...ask pimco

[marcinbarto]

Who is Gary Shilling? .... He has Phd in Economics? .... he doesn't understand economics. I think he has Phd in stupidity. Just listen to this nonsens he's talking about ...

[optionsupdate]

@marcinbarto check out his record

[Mutwasze]

DR. GARY SHILLING is a GENIUS! People dont see the INSANE Genius of this man because they are used to being hammered over the HEAD by the BULLS! This man is a BEAR with a BULLish spirit. You gotta know what you are LISTENING/HEARING. Listen between the LINES with this cat otherwise you will miss EVERYTHING he is saying. The BOND Info alone is WORTH serious BENJAMINS! Elder TruthTeller

[rchin99]

Gary Shilling is a permabear for as long as I can remember. In 2008 and 2009 he was in Forbes magazine advocating being short commodities and the stock market. The market went straight up all year led by commodities. I don't know why anyone would let him manage their portfolio.

[tapdog88]

This guy's a PHD and his advise is to buy long term bonds, which you hold for 30 yrs and then pay tax on, or companies that pay dividends, how much do you need to invest to make that worth it , or the dollar, last time I checked our national debt was growing 1 million every 15 secs Also theres a world wide food shortage but avoid commodities.

[eatandtravel]

@tapdog88

He's not talking about yield or interest rate. If you could buy a bond with a face value of a $100 for $90, did you make money?

[mrzack888]

where does the treasury get the money to buy back the bond/IOUs they owe to the Federal Reserve?

[brmichaels13]

@mrzack888 Either from the taxpayer, or from newly issued debt (including new issued debt bought by the Fed). Twisted cycle, ain't it?

[moderndarkage]

9:15 vacuum cleaner?