To explain this without just iterating percentages: The fact that the door was not opened by the host gives it the extra chance of being a car. This video isn't clear. Think of it as picking 2 doors vs picking 1. You pick 1 at the start, but the host gives you the effective opportunity of opening 2.
@garima2231 Not entirely true... Almost everything can be solved/calculated/explained/proven with math. I believe that the things that we can't calculate, is because we can't do it yet.
@passwordforgetter You are an uneducated in mathematics, this is an example little bit of variable probability and can be simulated time and time again and shown to be true. Don't trip on concepts you don't fully understand
This comment has received too many negative votesshow
This is the biggest piece of rubbish ever posted on YouTube. With three doors, there is a one in three chance. With only two doors, there's a one it two chance. Stop poisining our children's minds with nonsense, it's already hard enough to get them to think right.
@passwordforgetter: Let's say it's 100 doors, 99 with a goat behind it and one with a car behind it. You picked one door and the host opened 98 other doors, revealing only goats. Would you still think there's a 50/50 chance you choose the door with the car behind it? Remember, this would happen with every contestant every time.
That would be amazing, you pick one door with a 1 % chance of hiding the car, but would always end up with a 50 % chance of winning it. No wonder this show never got aired, they would run out of cars in no time!
Look idiots, the problem is extreamly simple once you take the time to actually listen to the explanation. The odds of you chosing right the first time were not very good, which means you probably chose wrong. Therefore, if the host eliminates one of the options of you didn't chose, chances are the remaining one is correct. There is no need for analogies for even good math skills, because the problem is nowhere near as complicated as it seems.
What if there were TWO contestants and each of these two contestants were ardent mathematicians, both with an innate understanding of the principle behind the Hall paradox. After each choose a door, and the third unchosen door was opened to reveal a zonk, would each of the two players, if given the chance, leap at the opportunity to accept the other fellow's door? (And in this scenario the 2 scholars are rivals who would not agree to sell the car and split the proceeds) Hmm?
This is a very good explanation. But if you're still not convinced, I suggest googling for the Mythbusters video where they tested this empirically and found that winning is much more frequent when you swap, and also that there is a strong psychological bias not to swap. And of course, you could always do your own empirical test using some common objects. 3 coins and a die come to mind.
Anyone who says that there is a 50/50 chance has not even given any thought to the explanation, the reason why this is a paradox is because the answer is against intuition, don't you people get that ??
Yea but there's still the 33% chance that you chose the right one. That means it's not 100% safe to swap and probably the idea of swaping the car for the goat is more painful than chosing the goat on the first try. Not that it will affect me very much. I'd like a goat :(
If the host didn't open a door you would indeed have 33% chance to get a car.But when he opens one of the doors. It will remove the possibility to get that goat.Then it leaves only 2 doors.Then so, it doesn't give you a 66% chance to get a car.It gives you a 50%. It would indeed be a 66% chance to get a car if it was 4 doors. And he opened 2 of them. And there was 2 cars and 2 goats. And he showed you one of the goats.THEN there would be a 66% chance to get a car. Swapping things wont save you.
My eyes are hurting for reading these stupid ass comments. Think of the problem this way:
You have a 1000 glasses of water in front of you. In 999 of them there is a drop of poison that will kill you. Only one glass doesn't. Now you have to choose one glass and you want to get it right. I think we can agree that it's almost impossible to pick the safe one. Now I'll remove 998 poison glasses and you're left with the one you picked and the other one I left you with. What do? Of corse you'll swap.
you have no idea how long it took me to try to understand this. ever since i was a kid every so often i'd see this problem and the explanation, and continue to be confused. this is the 1st time this made sense to me. thank you
@MaxVsLife I read the problem and didn't grasp the point of swapping. I watched the video and didn't quite grasp the benefit of swapping. I read your post and I now will choose to swap every time. Very astute and concise. Props to you!
If you really think this is not true and it's 50% then you're retarded and obviously doesn't understand 5th grade math, it's not about 50% it's about 1/3 (33%)
Okay.. yeah.. it's ends with 50/50 ... but not from scratch, either it's the original 33,3% if you stick with your first choice or 66,6% if you don't stick to the original door... the total sum of each choice should of cause be 100% :)
What an incorrect video, after the goat is removed, to swap or not to swap becomes your choices. GIving you TWO choices to make, ONE of which involves a car the other DOES not. The real trick behind this problem is to get people to swap a door thinking they have some 66% between to options to get a car. Its 50/50 by opening a door the odds to the initial choice get changed as it can no longer be a 33% chance seeing as there are only too options now.
@deathBYpinata At first when you choose a door you have a 1/3 chance of choosing the right door. That is crucial for the rest of this problem. When he picks a loser(which is what he does on purpose - thats the point) you still have that 1/3 chance that the door you originally picked was right. This means that the other has a 2/3 chance that it's right. So you should switch.
Great explaination, I was close to understanding it! D: But it still doesn't make sense to me. It seems like this Monty Hall Problem was just 'invented' by someone who likes to make things complicated. D: This does not-not-not make sense. Sorry for being unable to ignore my intuitions. But I feel this theory is utter useless, it really doesn't make sense. Chance of picking the car - swapping or not - should be 50/50. :(
@AshlynnRose wow ur pretty stupid if this isnt clear enough for u.... i mean fuck its easy. ur chance of first picking a goat is 66 percent. so u must expect a goat at first but if the show host then removes the other goat, ur best assumption would be that the car is the door left unpicked. obviously u dont know for sure, but this is about best possible guess
@jaminson533 Thanks for explaining again. Of course I would pick swapping from now on, whenever a chance like this occurs. Still, it does not make > sense <. I do understand, but I do not think it makes sense. It's called counter-intuitive for a reason, and I probably can't ignore my intuitions while you can. Grats :P...
I think I might have a better way of explaining it, if you go by the agendas or the intuitions of the host, this won't work. Now supposing you pick a goat (before he picks out the goat door), the chances are 66% of doing so. Since the goat door is already picked next, the chances of a goat NOT being behind the third door is 66%, that means there's a 66% chance of a CAR being there. Done.
@glenjacobs423 Thank you for your patient explaination! :3 It helps viewing the problem this way. So: as a player of this quiz, you conciously think you picked the goat the first time because the chance of picking one is the biggest (66%).
For God's sake, I think I got it now. I really don't want to lose this feeling of understanding it, ever! Thanks a lot!
@AshlynnRose theres no intuition needed. fuck! it has been tested and proven to work "testing out the monty hall problem" there go watch that, it is so fucking simple that you'll feel like a kindergarten kid watching it
@jaminson533 There's no reason to be an ass. Seriously, not all people find math as easy as others, and things like this CAN be confusing for some people. Be nice, jeez. -.-
@AricDaNinja But the fact that there was originally three doors makes a difference. Since you probably picked a goat first (2/3 chance) and the host showed the other goat, swapping doors will most likely get you the car.
I had to think for a while to get it myself, hopes this helps.
man! it took me long, but i finnaly got it :D didnt considered you had 66% you would pick an goat the first time. started to think after an door was opened
There are two goats and one car, so of the 3 doors, you're more likely from the get-go to select a goat door than you are a car door. That's how I understand it.
@realitities2 I'm struggling in order to understand it now as well but you are wrong since simulations show that swapping does give you a better chance.
@realitities2 No, the odds that you have already picked a goat is 66%. You can't go back in time and change your decision unless you swap. If you pciked a goat (66), and you switch you get the car. If you picked the car (33), you get the goat. The reason people get confused is that you are not CHOOSING again. You are SWAPPING, the different being is that if you choose, you can choose your original choice again. If you swap, you cannot. Clear?
@realitities2 I thought that for the first half, but the second half explains it better.
You probably picked a goat the first time (2/3 chance), and the host revealed the other goat, so the swap door is most likely the car. The fact that you probably picked a goat in the first place makes a difference. Get it?
@realitities2 In a sense, u're right but the key to this problem is takin the first choice (with 3 doors) in consideration
When you have 3 doors, chances for pickin a goat are bout 66.6%, for the car 33.3%, so pickin a goat is much more probable and that's the important thing
It means that if you pick a goat (more probable) and the other goat is revealed, if you swap you get the car
The Monty Hall problem isn't about getting the car for sure but to raise your chance to get it
the only reason for those odds is that you pick the door first, if you pick the door AFTER the hoster has oppend one, you'll have 50/50, but if you choose first, your odds of picking a goat are greater, and that makes the odds of picking the car after the hoster openning a door greater
I come to discussions like this to amuse myself with people like you. Unfortunately, you didn't rationalize much (yet), which would be even more entertaining.
@NoobiiPower He said 1/3 was approximately 33% and 2/3 was approximately 66%. It's actually 33.3333...% and 66.6666....% recurring respectively- so they would both add up to 100.
^ Pick a door. Two doors have a goat. One has the car.
You choose a door.
I reveal one of the goats.
You choose if you want to stick with the door you picked at the beginning of the game [while the second goat was initiating the 66% probability] or switch doors, because more than likely the door you didn't pick is the car [because that second goat made it to where you are /twice/ more likely to choose a door with a goat, instead of a car.
@kaneminik I don't follow you. Here's my version of your method:
We call the goats A and B
1: you pick A, host reveals B: you should swap
2:you pick B, host reveals A: you should swap
3: you pick Car, host reveals either A or B (which is obviously irrelevant to the probability of event 3 happening at all): you shouldn't swap
It is reasonable to assume that we can make use of an uniform probability model, leaving each option with 33% probability of happening. 33%+33%=66% has it you should swap.
Probability and chance don't mean anything in the real world. They are nice things to play around with mathematically, but you can never determine what outcome is more feasible by calculating percentages. In the end, there are two doors remaining after the host has opened one; and there is a goat behind one and a car behind another. There is no way to tell which is which, or rather, which is more likely to be which. Who could dispute that? Seriously?
For all you skeptics, find a random number generator, and test it urself over a large number of trails... Don't say anything until you stare at the real numbers, not theoretical concepts that aren't thought through. I support this video's concept analysis and it is correct.
@kaneminik wrong. it doesn't matter if the host knows or not. the host could be a dumb robot. when you first pick a door, you have a 2/3 chance of picking a goat. then you get free information that one of the other doors definitely has a goat. but you still have a 2/3 chance of getting a goat unless you switch doors.
@tiehut Actually it matters. I tried it myself with a simulator I found online, and it turned out that if the host doesn't know and opens a goat door by accident, not because he knew, then it really is fifty-fifty. It is essential that the host knows for this to work. You can find a detailed explanation with google.
When picking the first door you are not aware that the host will open a door. Considering this statement, the video is correct! And you will profit from swapping.
Knowing that he will open the door however, makes the problem easier and 50/50 is the correct answer. It's simply a question about who knows what, and this is what makes probability so difficult. The phenomenom is also related to game theory, just read the book by John Nash.
@Haaknes Except in this case you do know that the host is going to open a door, because that's what Monty Hall did on the show Let's Make A Deal, hence the name of the problem.
This is not a coin toss 50/50 situation , the game show host is "the key"...
You had a 66% chance of picking a goat at the ""start"" and only a 33% chance of the car and the game show host will eliminate the other goat should you "more likely" have started badly by picking a goat (66% chance).
The Game show hosts action changes the simple maths odds.
@tsilver33 well you are mistaken. The problem as well as the solution is decades old, and it has been tested in many simulations as well. The analysis in the video is correct. Remember, just because there are only two choices doesn't mean it has to be 50-50. Otherwise I'd like to gamble with you using my die with five 1's and one 6 on it. 50-50 to get a 1 or a 6 right?
Your chances DO IMPROVE once the game show host opens a door with a goat. Before any door is revealed, EVERY door has a 1/3 chance of being the car. Once a Door, which is CERTAIN to be a goat, the probability of the other two doors BOTH increase to 1/2, not just the one you have the option of switching to.
Whether you swap or not really does make no difference. Let me put it this way; We know, for certain, that the game show host will open a door with a goat behind it. No matte what, this will be true, no matter what lies behind your door. Therefore, no matter WHAT DOOR YOU PICK, before your prize is revealed you will choose between two doors; one with a goat and one with the car. Therefore your chances are still 1/2.
@tsilver33 now imagine there are 100 doors. Pick one door and let the host open 98 doors with a goat behind it. Your chance of winning the car is 1/2 NOW, but how high is the chance to pick the right door at the beginning? Well, there are 100 doors and only 1 got a car behind it, so it's a chance of 1 per cent. Would you swap now? Well, you should
If 100 doors (99 goats 1 Car). Pick one door 1/100. The host then opens 98 doors leaving only 2 remaining. Your first choice has a 1/100 chance to be correct but if you'd switch, your chance would be 100/100 - 1/100=99/100. {(If 3 doors 3/3 - 1/3=2/3.)}
Wait, even if you stay with your original selection, it counts as though you were choosing anew (you are after all choosing a door, only now you only have 2 choices), the fact that you picked that door originally and stayed with it does not mean you have only made 1 decision, you have in fact made 2, so the chances are equal
@cyberslick18 ok i get it, its about the odds in the first phase, its the fact that you get a 2/3 chance of choosing a goat and if you land it, that guarantees that the host will open the other goat door, so you know the car is in the final door, so you must switch, its the choice that gives you the highest odds of getting the car.
@sid8980 Staying with the same decision isn't an equal chance. Since say the 2 other doors you could have picked is 2 out 3 if one of them is taken out its still 2 out of 3 because the other one is gone ergo the chance still remains
If the host always removes one goat, then you are really only ever choosing between two options. 1 out of 2 odds. The third door never plays a role because it is ALWAYS removed. Anything else happening is misdirection.
@skylineiiigtr That is exactly where I finally made a mistake. I haven't been proven wrong for about 1.5 years. That one mistake is what earned me a sad defeat.
The reason why it's not 50/50 is because of that 66% probability of that second goat. [that curtain will more than likely have a goat under it rather than the car] So by swapping, you are picking the car, and not the goat that is most likely under the curtain you chose because of that 66% probability
@TamedShadow Well if you look at this problem without ever knowing what is behind the doors, how is it not a 50% chance? You are only ever choosing between two doors because 1 of them is never counted. You choose from only two doors because 1 wrong door is unconditionally removed. Performing this without knowing what is behind the doors seems it would make it a 50-50 shot.
@skylineiiigtr You are doing exactly what I was doing just an hour ago. I thought exactly the same way that you did.
Trust me. Read my first response on this video; it shouldn't be too far down.
I assure you. That damn goat -- even though it was taken out by the host -- still makes this entire problem plausible; because of that 66% probability. That 66% probability is why the door you picked will most likely be the goat, and not the car towards the end of the game -- after the goat is gone
@skylineiiigtr So when you swap towards the end. The door you didn't pick is more likely to have the car. The door you picked -- when the second goat was still in game [creating that 66% probability]-- is why you are more than likely going to lose if you stick with the door you chose at the beginning of the game.
Now. Let's backtrack back to when the second goat was still in the game. You probably chose the goat over the car because of the 66% probability. That makes sense.
This is where that sense falls:
The game isn't 4 doors, 3 goats - 1, and 1 car. It's 3 doors, 2 goats - 1, and 1 car. Thus, it doesn't matter if you picked a goat or the car because of the probability. In the end, you will always have a car or a goat under the curtain you picked, which is most likely a goat..
Let me explain why this is not as problematic as it appears to be.
Yes, knowing that there are more goats than a car is going to cause you to choose the goat more often than the car. Which is a 66% probablity Vs. a 33% probability.
This is where things get confusing. This rule of probability would only stand if the host never took one of the goats out.
When the host takes away '1' goat. It's no longer 2 goats, and 1 car. It's 1 goat, and 1 car..
@nevada247 If he doesn't reveal the other door, then swapping will be nothing more than taking another guess and the odds remain 33 percent to win the car.
uh, sorry to ruin everyone's "im so smart for knowing the monty hall solution", but it actually IS a 50/50 chance due to the law of independent probability, not 67/33
@chadunn13 Uh, sorry to ruin you "I'm so smart for 'knowing' the Law of Independent Probability," but it has been proven through various studies that you do, in fact, have a statistically significant higher probability to choose a car by switching your choice.
@EvilTurnips it's not like the 33% of the revealed door automatically carries over to the other unopened door. and i read in some places that statistically it's 50/50
@chadunn13 You can perform this experiment at home. Get 3 solid colored cups, one tiny object, and one family member. Have the family member pick a cup and stick with their guess 20 times. Then, do the same experiment, but always reveal the other "empty" cup and have them swap every single time. Do this 20 times. Record the results and compare.
@NoNameC68 ya, i get that you have a 2/3 chance if you switch FROM THE BEGINNING, but i was saying i disagree with the fact that everyone assumes that at that stage, when there are only 2 doors to choose from, that its a 2/3 chance from switching, when its really a 50/50 chance
@chadunn13 If he opened the door BEFORE you picked a door, then yes, it would be a 50/50 chance. However, there's 2 different criteria he must follow when opening a door.
1. He is not allowed to open the door you pick.
2. He is not allowed to open the door with the car behind it.
If he said "before you choose, let me open one of these doors," then he'll be able to pick which one of the two goat doors he can open. If you choose a door, then he can't open that door, no matter what...
@NoNameC68 (cont.) You have a 2/3 chance of forcing him to pick a specific door, and a 1/3 chance of letting him pick whichever 2 doors he wants. This probably doesn't make sense, so how about you just see for yourself.
Go to the link in the following video's description:
To explain this without just iterating percentages: The fact that the door was not opened by the host gives it the extra chance of being a car. This video isn't clear. Think of it as picking 2 doors vs picking 1. You pick 1 at the start, but the host gives you the effective opportunity of opening 2.
CalvinSomething 3 hours ago
what if you choose a door with a goat and the game host doesn't open the other door witch has the other goat? then what do you do?
alexela11ful 12 hours ago
can i win a car that a goat drives it?
billaras54 1 day ago
he has a sexy voice
SupaNarwhal 2 days ago
Wow, I actually understand this! :D
baebae2205 2 days ago
Utter crap.
thefoxlad99 2 days ago
Goats are my friends!!
91fatboy51 2 days ago
i agree but real life is not mathematics.... any door can have anything
garima2231 5 days ago
@garima2231 Not entirely true... Almost everything can be solved/calculated/explained/proven with math. I believe that the things that we can't calculate, is because we can't do it yet.
ExTheSea 1 day ago
Its True...
MrMadMurder 1 week ago
@passwordforgetter You are an uneducated in mathematics, this is an example little bit of variable probability and can be simulated time and time again and shown to be true. Don't trip on concepts you don't fully understand
warrenb64 1 week ago
that's really cool lol, never would have thought about it like that
MrNoname7296 1 week ago
This comment has received too many negative votes show
This is the biggest piece of rubbish ever posted on YouTube. With three doors, there is a one in three chance. With only two doors, there's a one it two chance. Stop poisining our children's minds with nonsense, it's already hard enough to get them to think right.
passwordforgetter 1 week ago
@passwordforgetter this video is perfectly logical
peplo13 1 week ago
@passwordforgetter: Let's say it's 100 doors, 99 with a goat behind it and one with a car behind it. You picked one door and the host opened 98 other doors, revealing only goats. Would you still think there's a 50/50 chance you choose the door with the car behind it? Remember, this would happen with every contestant every time.
aaasssdddwwwful 1 week ago
That would be amazing, you pick one door with a 1 % chance of hiding the car, but would always end up with a 50 % chance of winning it. No wonder this show never got aired, they would run out of cars in no time!
aaasssdddwwwful 1 week ago
booby prizes
smhjerry 1 week ago
3 doors down can answer this..
tengkuganas 1 week ago
That car is lame! I WANT A GOAT!
mymaster32 1 week ago 15
I want the goat
zomgkitty1231 1 week ago
Look idiots, the problem is extreamly simple once you take the time to actually listen to the explanation. The odds of you chosing right the first time were not very good, which means you probably chose wrong. Therefore, if the host eliminates one of the options of you didn't chose, chances are the remaining one is correct. There is no need for analogies for even good math skills, because the problem is nowhere near as complicated as it seems.
JapaneseStudentSan 1 week ago
omg the brit accent makes it so much more interesting
nextblain 1 week ago
Mind. Blown.
Harpysrude 1 week ago
it shows it clearly... its the centre one
MrSqwiggles1 1 week ago
What if there were TWO contestants and each of these two contestants were ardent mathematicians, both with an innate understanding of the principle behind the Hall paradox. After each choose a door, and the third unchosen door was opened to reveal a zonk, would each of the two players, if given the chance, leap at the opportunity to accept the other fellow's door? (And in this scenario the 2 scholars are rivals who would not agree to sell the car and split the proceeds) Hmm?
~ Johnny Radionic ™
Johnnyradionic 2 weeks ago
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This is a very good explanation. But if you're still not convinced, I suggest googling for the Mythbusters video where they tested this empirically and found that winning is much more frequent when you swap, and also that there is a strong psychological bias not to swap. And of course, you could always do your own empirical test using some common objects. 3 coins and a die come to mind.
tuberspud 2 weeks ago
Comment removed
tuberspud 2 weeks ago
Anyone who says that there is a 50/50 chance has not even given any thought to the explanation, the reason why this is a paradox is because the answer is against intuition, don't you people get that ??
808darkhands 2 weeks ago
Yea but there's still the 33% chance that you chose the right one. That means it's not 100% safe to swap and probably the idea of swaping the car for the goat is more painful than chosing the goat on the first try. Not that it will affect me very much. I'd like a goat :(
TheEduardo81 2 weeks ago
No wait. In shows like this there is no car price :) Only 3 goats.
PeMaManiac 2 weeks ago
If the host didn't open a door you would indeed have 33% chance to get a car.But when he opens one of the doors. It will remove the possibility to get that goat.Then it leaves only 2 doors.Then so, it doesn't give you a 66% chance to get a car.It gives you a 50%. It would indeed be a 66% chance to get a car if it was 4 doors. And he opened 2 of them. And there was 2 cars and 2 goats. And he showed you one of the goats.THEN there would be a 66% chance to get a car. Swapping things wont save you.
PeMaManiac 2 weeks ago
@PeMaManiac dude this thing has been proven by statisticians. Please just accept it.
theblackmonkey1700 2 weeks ago
rather ride a goat than drive a car
pokemonifications 2 weeks ago
I don't always swap at the Monty Hall Problem - but when I do, I have a 1/3 chance of winning a goat.
Simchen 2 weeks ago
That's awesome.
Soap360 2 weeks ago
My eyes are hurting for reading these stupid ass comments. Think of the problem this way:
You have a 1000 glasses of water in front of you. In 999 of them there is a drop of poison that will kill you. Only one glass doesn't. Now you have to choose one glass and you want to get it right. I think we can agree that it's almost impossible to pick the safe one. Now I'll remove 998 poison glasses and you're left with the one you picked and the other one I left you with. What do? Of corse you'll swap.
MaxVsLife 2 weeks ago 44
@MaxVsLife
you have no idea how long it took me to try to understand this. ever since i was a kid every so often i'd see this problem and the explanation, and continue to be confused. this is the 1st time this made sense to me. thank you
AmyMooP 2 weeks ago
@MaxVsLife Great explanation :)
RyuRiku 2 weeks ago
@MaxVsLife explained much better than mythbusters :D
SupaNarwhal 2 days ago
@MaxVsLife I read the problem and didn't grasp the point of swapping. I watched the video and didn't quite grasp the benefit of swapping. I read your post and I now will choose to swap every time. Very astute and concise. Props to you!
a3883m 1 day ago
If you really think this is not true and it's 50% then you're retarded and obviously doesn't understand 5th grade math, it's not about 50% it's about 1/3 (33%)
kriz10and 2 weeks ago
Okay.. yeah.. it's ends with 50/50 ... but not from scratch, either it's the original 33,3% if you stick with your first choice or 66,6% if you don't stick to the original door... the total sum of each choice should of cause be 100% :)
FlushNorris 2 weeks ago
What an incorrect video, after the goat is removed, to swap or not to swap becomes your choices. GIving you TWO choices to make, ONE of which involves a car the other DOES not. The real trick behind this problem is to get people to swap a door thinking they have some 66% between to options to get a car. Its 50/50 by opening a door the odds to the initial choice get changed as it can no longer be a 33% chance seeing as there are only too options now.
deathBYpinata 3 weeks ago
@deathBYpinata At first when you choose a door you have a 1/3 chance of choosing the right door. That is crucial for the rest of this problem. When he picks a loser(which is what he does on purpose - thats the point) you still have that 1/3 chance that the door you originally picked was right. This means that the other has a 2/3 chance that it's right. So you should switch.
theblackmonkey1700 2 weeks ago
great explanation! i didn't quite understand the problem or its solution before i watched this. thank you :)
quadristan 3 weeks ago
Great explaination, I was close to understanding it! D: But it still doesn't make sense to me. It seems like this Monty Hall Problem was just 'invented' by someone who likes to make things complicated. D: This does not-not-not make sense. Sorry for being unable to ignore my intuitions. But I feel this theory is utter useless, it really doesn't make sense. Chance of picking the car - swapping or not - should be 50/50. :(
AshlynnRose 3 weeks ago
@AshlynnRose wow ur pretty stupid if this isnt clear enough for u.... i mean fuck its easy. ur chance of first picking a goat is 66 percent. so u must expect a goat at first but if the show host then removes the other goat, ur best assumption would be that the car is the door left unpicked. obviously u dont know for sure, but this is about best possible guess
jaminson533 3 weeks ago
@jaminson533 Thanks for explaining again. Of course I would pick swapping from now on, whenever a chance like this occurs. Still, it does not make > sense <. I do understand, but I do not think it makes sense. It's called counter-intuitive for a reason, and I probably can't ignore my intuitions while you can. Grats :P...
AshlynnRose 3 weeks ago
@AshlynnRose
I think I might have a better way of explaining it, if you go by the agendas or the intuitions of the host, this won't work. Now supposing you pick a goat (before he picks out the goat door), the chances are 66% of doing so. Since the goat door is already picked next, the chances of a goat NOT being behind the third door is 66%, that means there's a 66% chance of a CAR being there. Done.
glenjacobs423 3 weeks ago
@glenjacobs423 Thank you for your patient explaination! :3 It helps viewing the problem this way. So: as a player of this quiz, you conciously think you picked the goat the first time because the chance of picking one is the biggest (66%).
For God's sake, I think I got it now. I really don't want to lose this feeling of understanding it, ever! Thanks a lot!
AshlynnRose 3 weeks ago
@AshlynnRose
No problem :)
The thing is that the other person who explained this to you was giving extraneous information, so might have been confusing you.
glenjacobs423 2 weeks ago
@AshlynnRose theres no intuition needed. fuck! it has been tested and proven to work "testing out the monty hall problem" there go watch that, it is so fucking simple that you'll feel like a kindergarten kid watching it
jaminson533 2 weeks ago
@jaminson533 Yep.
AshlynnRose 2 weeks ago
@jaminson533 There's no reason to be an ass. Seriously, not all people find math as easy as others, and things like this CAN be confusing for some people. Be nice, jeez. -.-
PlotMasterX 2 weeks ago
Spelling error. 0:05. He says 'Won Clarke', but it says 'Ron Clarke'.
ChukMakeIt 3 weeks ago
that's a really good explanation of the problem.
Even I (and I'm from germany) understand it.
JWD96 3 weeks ago
foolishness :) everything has %50
it does, or not :P
Efrahimy 3 weeks ago
math gets bent when you over think it. this is a perfect example. 2 doors equals a 50/50 chance, that's all there is to it
AricDaNinja 3 weeks ago
@AricDaNinja But the fact that there was originally three doors makes a difference. Since you probably picked a goat first (2/3 chance) and the host showed the other goat, swapping doors will most likely get you the car.
I had to think for a while to get it myself, hopes this helps.
CrunchGirl123 3 weeks ago
@AricDaNinja He said of winning it, not picking it straight off the bat. Vice versa, you can under-think it.
darkAce100 3 weeks ago
man! it took me long, but i finnaly got it :D didnt considered you had 66% you would pick an goat the first time. started to think after an door was opened
lordsmarty 3 weeks ago
Comment removed
lordsmarty 3 weeks ago
the guy talking sounds like the principle from the inbetweeners :P
matt12tv 3 weeks ago
@thetimez111 yup :)
Nullpointerz 3 weeks ago
There are two goats and one car, so of the 3 doors, you're more likely from the get-go to select a goat door than you are a car door. That's how I understand it.
DonZabu 3 weeks ago
At 3:09 it is closer to 67%. Not 66%.
Berntisso 3 weeks ago
@Berntisso shut the fuck up
whocares9911 3 weeks ago
this explanation ignores the fact that there are two goats. your chances are
Goat-A 33%
Goat-B 33%
Car 33%
it doesnt matter that the odds of picking a goat are 66%. you eliminate one goat and then the odds that youve already picked a goat 1/2. 50%
realitities2 3 weeks ago
@realitities2 I'm struggling in order to understand it now as well but you are wrong since simulations show that swapping does give you a better chance.
RdMrcr 3 weeks ago
@realitities2 No, the odds that you have already picked a goat is 66%. You can't go back in time and change your decision unless you swap. If you pciked a goat (66), and you switch you get the car. If you picked the car (33), you get the goat. The reason people get confused is that you are not CHOOSING again. You are SWAPPING, the different being is that if you choose, you can choose your original choice again. If you swap, you cannot. Clear?
Lotsofpie2222 3 weeks ago
@realitities2 I thought that for the first half, but the second half explains it better.
You probably picked a goat the first time (2/3 chance), and the host revealed the other goat, so the swap door is most likely the car. The fact that you probably picked a goat in the first place makes a difference. Get it?
CrunchGirl123 3 weeks ago
once you eliminate one doesnt that become a new pool with a 50/50?
realitities2 3 weeks ago
@realitities2 In a sense, u're right but the key to this problem is takin the first choice (with 3 doors) in consideration
When you have 3 doors, chances for pickin a goat are bout 66.6%, for the car 33.3%, so pickin a goat is much more probable and that's the important thing
It means that if you pick a goat (more probable) and the other goat is revealed, if you swap you get the car
The Monty Hall problem isn't about getting the car for sure but to raise your chance to get it
Eeloxis 3 weeks ago
Monty Hall and 2614 people need to learn math.
REDTEAM22003 3 weeks ago
yeah but if you pick the car from the beginning then swap for a goat your chances of suicide are 100%
gaby9009 3 weeks ago
the only reason for those odds is that you pick the door first, if you pick the door AFTER the hoster has oppend one, you'll have 50/50, but if you choose first, your odds of picking a goat are greater, and that makes the odds of picking the car after the hoster openning a door greater
DragoNightmarE 4 weeks ago
A car can take you places but with a goat you'll never want to go anywhere else.
Trebotable 1 month ago
Great explanation!
SmartestViking 1 month ago
For Simon, the Yogscast Dwarf
it doesn't matter, its 100% win, theres two goats and a car.
Xomazai 1 month ago
2:43 but 33% plus 66% = 99%
tj15331 1 month ago
@tj15331 well you can count with 33,33333333333333333333333333333333333 and so on if you want but I think everyone else prefers not to.
eddson11 1 month ago
Wrong. Messed up logic. The odds are still 50/50 whether you chose the right door or not.
mroadster45 1 month ago
@mroadster45 unfortunately you are the one that's wrong. Your simpleton knowledge of math and probability is laughable.
thach1ef 1 month ago 4
@mroadster45 no ur wrong
ikmagic123 1 month ago
@mroadster45
I come to discussions like this to amuse myself with people like you. Unfortunately, you didn't rationalize much (yet), which would be even more entertaining.
ekszentrik 1 month ago
@mroadster45 u r wrong. coz u probably choosed a goat first time, so if u change door, u have higher % to win a car.
rambler1234567 1 month ago
@mroadster45 The easiest way to explain why you're wrong is simply:
If you ALWAYS swap, you'll end up with a car when you pick a goat first, and you'll end up with a goat when you pick a car first.
Now what were the odds of picking a goat first vs picking a car first now again? ;)
Hallgrenoid 1 month ago 2
very nice explanation
deen2dam 1 month ago
i never thought about it that way. Hmm, now Im ready for a game show!
crypto0829 1 month ago
What car fits behind a single door?!
hhoneybadgerr 1 month ago 2
really intelligent answer
ElFuroCrack 1 month ago
That makes sense!
maxjordison14 1 month ago
WOAH look at the loading bar!
briskboy28 1 month ago
wait wait wait.... if the chance are 66% chance for a goat and 33% chance for a car, what are the last 1% chance for ?!?
NoobiiPower 1 month ago
@NoobiiPower He said 1/3 was approximately 33% and 2/3 was approximately 66%. It's actually 33.3333...% and 66.6666....% recurring respectively- so they would both add up to 100.
Bristlehoth 1 month ago
So let me show you how this works.
1 2 3
^ Pick a door. Two doors have a goat. One has the car.
You choose a door.
I reveal one of the goats.
You choose if you want to stick with the door you picked at the beginning of the game [while the second goat was initiating the 66% probability] or switch doors, because more than likely the door you didn't pick is the car [because that second goat made it to where you are /twice/ more likely to choose a door with a goat, instead of a car.
TamedShadow 1 month ago
nice explanation
ableite 1 month ago
i'll take a goat anyday. i'll cook it and viola, food
legofreak1109 1 month ago 20
@legofreak1109
i'll take the car anyday, then i can trade it for 10 goats. viola, food
NoobiiPower 1 month ago
@legofreak1109 you could sell the car for a bunch cruncha goats.
mondotwistedmojo 2 weeks ago
And of course, if the host knows then it works as shown in this video, that is to say switching improves your odds.
mrKirosana 1 month ago
everybody lies.
jokacho21 1 month ago
why am i watching this ? -_-
bogdannho 1 month ago
Umm no
there is a 2/3 chance of picking the WRONG DOOR. therefore you should switch if you have the wrong door, Aye?
Seems simple
And kane, the problem is it doesn't matter whcih door they open at if you pick the car... see the mythbusters ep for more info.
Scholarstorm 1 month ago
what if the whole show was a scam in the first place??? :(
dadvoc666 1 month ago
Try writing down all the possibilities:
Car=1 pick=1 open=2 Don't swap
Car=1 pick=1 open=3 Don't swap
Car=1 pick=2 open=3 swap
Car=1 pick=3 open=2 swap
out of 4 possibilities, in 2 you should swap, and in 2 you should not swap = 50%
kaneminik 1 month ago
@kaneminik I don't follow you. Here's my version of your method:
We call the goats A and B
1: you pick A, host reveals B: you should swap
2:you pick B, host reveals A: you should swap
3: you pick Car, host reveals either A or B (which is obviously irrelevant to the probability of event 3 happening at all): you shouldn't swap
It is reasonable to assume that we can make use of an uniform probability model, leaving each option with 33% probability of happening. 33%+33%=66% has it you should swap.
outofpeanuts 1 month ago
@outofpeanuts Thank you - your explanation made it finally clear to me that swapping is the right thing to do!!
HaraldReinhart 1 month ago
This has been flagged as spam show
Probability and chance don't mean anything in the real world. They are nice things to play around with mathematically, but you can never determine what outcome is more feasible by calculating percentages. In the end, there are two doors remaining after the host has opened one; and there is a goat behind one and a car behind another. There is no way to tell which is which, or rather, which is more likely to be which. Who could dispute that? Seriously?
BrotherCopper 1 month ago
@BrotherCopper Oh, just the mythbusters, a multimillion dollar show who ran the numbers.
NOVAtheRetard 4 weeks ago
Comment removed
BrotherCopper 1 month ago
omg..just get a loan dont rely on quiz shows for anything.
enos218 1 month ago
The only trouble with the Monty Hall problem is that it is wrong logic.
sianchild 1 month ago
For all you skeptics, find a random number generator, and test it urself over a large number of trails... Don't say anything until you stare at the real numbers, not theoretical concepts that aren't thought through. I support this video's concept analysis and it is correct.
goodby39 1 month ago
goat!
alexfresno4321 1 month ago
Comment removed
kaneminik 1 month ago in playlist Favorite videos
@kaneminik wrong. it doesn't matter if the host knows or not. the host could be a dumb robot. when you first pick a door, you have a 2/3 chance of picking a goat. then you get free information that one of the other doors definitely has a goat. but you still have a 2/3 chance of getting a goat unless you switch doors.
tiehut 1 month ago
@tiehut Actually it matters. I tried it myself with a simulator I found online, and it turned out that if the host doesn't know and opens a goat door by accident, not because he knew, then it really is fifty-fifty. It is essential that the host knows for this to work. You can find a detailed explanation with google.
mrKirosana 1 month ago
Thumbs up if you would just say the heck with it and just pick the door on the left.
Twiztify 1 month ago
it kinda makes sense but u forget it the second they say something, also - sid8980 is right
Wizhix 1 month ago
Why should you swap? SO I CAN STEAL YOUR CAR?
rockuser28 1 month ago
I want booby prizes :)
crackcakes99 1 month ago
I cant believe i skipped 10 seconds...
OneEndedStick 1 month ago
When picking the first door you are not aware that the host will open a door. Considering this statement, the video is correct! And you will profit from swapping.
Knowing that he will open the door however, makes the problem easier and 50/50 is the correct answer. It's simply a question about who knows what, and this is what makes probability so difficult. The phenomenom is also related to game theory, just read the book by John Nash.
Haaknes 1 month ago
@Haaknes Except in this case you do know that the host is going to open a door, because that's what Monty Hall did on the show Let's Make A Deal, hence the name of the problem.
fsmodz11 1 month ago
Mind....Blown
DucksFromHell 1 month ago
Tsilver he literally just proved the problem... You should brush up on your stats and probability if you want to dispute this in a more educated way
6BURG9 1 month ago
Always go with your first choice. Years of multiple choice tests have taught me that :P
njwkim 1 month ago
@njwkim
Not correct
This is not a coin toss 50/50 situation , the game show host is "the key"...
You had a 66% chance of picking a goat at the ""start"" and only a 33% chance of the car and the game show host will eliminate the other goat should you "more likely" have started badly by picking a goat (66% chance).
The Game show hosts action changes the simple maths odds.
Battleneter 1 month ago
@tsilver33 well you are mistaken. The problem as well as the solution is decades old, and it has been tested in many simulations as well. The analysis in the video is correct. Remember, just because there are only two choices doesn't mean it has to be 50-50. Otherwise I'd like to gamble with you using my die with five 1's and one 6 on it. 50-50 to get a 1 or a 6 right?
nicuramar 1 month ago
THE CURIOUS CASE OF THE DOG IN THENIGHT TIME
TheStealthyClown 1 month ago
Your chances DO IMPROVE once the game show host opens a door with a goat. Before any door is revealed, EVERY door has a 1/3 chance of being the car. Once a Door, which is CERTAIN to be a goat, the probability of the other two doors BOTH increase to 1/2, not just the one you have the option of switching to.
tsilver33 1 month ago
This video is, though well made, very incorrect.
Whether you swap or not really does make no difference. Let me put it this way; We know, for certain, that the game show host will open a door with a goat behind it. No matte what, this will be true, no matter what lies behind your door. Therefore, no matter WHAT DOOR YOU PICK, before your prize is revealed you will choose between two doors; one with a goat and one with the car. Therefore your chances are still 1/2.
tsilver33 1 month ago
@tsilver33 now imagine there are 100 doors. Pick one door and let the host open 98 doors with a goat behind it. Your chance of winning the car is 1/2 NOW, but how high is the chance to pick the right door at the beginning? Well, there are 100 doors and only 1 got a car behind it, so it's a chance of 1 per cent. Would you swap now? Well, you should
RockHailand 1 month ago
With probability math you need to consider all known facts: THE HOST ALWAYS REVEALS ONE GOAT.
Thus leaving 1 goat and 1 car. Swap or not => 50% chance.
Try 2:
A random continent will survive an alien invasion (THE CAR)
You moved to Europe before the invasion started (YOUR FIRST CHOICE OF DOOR)
All other continents except Europe and Asia gets blown up (THE GOAT REVEALED BY THE HOST)
Europe now has 50% chance to survive, whether you move to Asia or not (THE FINAL CHANCE OF THE CAR)
aasmundstavdahl 1 month ago
@aasmundstavdahl Terrible, terrible example.
cyberslick18 1 month ago
If 100 doors (99 goats 1 Car). Pick one door 1/100. The host then opens 98 doors leaving only 2 remaining. Your first choice has a 1/100 chance to be correct but if you'd switch, your chance would be 100/100 - 1/100=99/100. {(If 3 doors 3/3 - 1/3=2/3.)}
GladYoulikedit 1 month ago
Goat (greatest of all time)
GUNNERBOY4 1 month ago
Intresting and even more intresting is that most people well according myhtbusters anyway are stupid enough to stay with there 1/3 change of winning
MrPappa2566 1 month ago
Wait, even if you stay with your original selection, it counts as though you were choosing anew (you are after all choosing a door, only now you only have 2 choices), the fact that you picked that door originally and stayed with it does not mean you have only made 1 decision, you have in fact made 2, so the chances are equal
sid8980 1 month ago
@sid8980 Incorrect, rewatch the video.
cyberslick18 1 month ago
@cyberslick18 ok i get it, its about the odds in the first phase, its the fact that you get a 2/3 chance of choosing a goat and if you land it, that guarantees that the host will open the other goat door, so you know the car is in the final door, so you must switch, its the choice that gives you the highest odds of getting the car.
sid8980 1 month ago
@cyberslick18 you´re actually gambling/hoping on getting the goat in the first round then!!!
sid8980 1 month ago
@sid8980 Staying with the same decision isn't an equal chance. Since say the 2 other doors you could have picked is 2 out 3 if one of them is taken out its still 2 out of 3 because the other one is gone ergo the chance still remains
GrizzledPenguin 1 month ago
@sid8980 did you even watch the video?
TheTrollllol 1 month ago
@TheTrollllol so I didn´t get it the first time round, whats the problem, I don´t claim to be a genius so you can just fuck right off
sid8980 1 month ago
This has been flagged as spam show
@TheTrollllol so I didn´t get it the first time round, whats the problem, I don´t claim to be a genius so you can just fuck right off
sid8980 1 month ago
110%
MisterBamBam89 1 month ago
Yea but if you pick the car in the first place and switch, youll always get a goat.
MisterBamBam89 1 month ago
Goat
Zanthoriator 1 month ago
If the host always removes one goat, then you are really only ever choosing between two options. 1 out of 2 odds. The third door never plays a role because it is ALWAYS removed. Anything else happening is misdirection.
skylineiiigtr 1 month ago
@skylineiiigtr That is exactly where I finally made a mistake. I haven't been proven wrong for about 1.5 years. That one mistake is what earned me a sad defeat.
The reason why it's not 50/50 is because of that 66% probability of that second goat. [that curtain will more than likely have a goat under it rather than the car] So by swapping, you are picking the car, and not the goat that is most likely under the curtain you chose because of that 66% probability
Ugh. I should've got this right
TamedShadow 1 month ago
@TamedShadow Well if you look at this problem without ever knowing what is behind the doors, how is it not a 50% chance? You are only ever choosing between two doors because 1 of them is never counted. You choose from only two doors because 1 wrong door is unconditionally removed. Performing this without knowing what is behind the doors seems it would make it a 50-50 shot.
skylineiiigtr 1 month ago
@skylineiiigtr You are doing exactly what I was doing just an hour ago. I thought exactly the same way that you did.
Trust me. Read my first response on this video; it shouldn't be too far down.
I assure you. That damn goat -- even though it was taken out by the host -- still makes this entire problem plausible; because of that 66% probability. That 66% probability is why the door you picked will most likely be the goat, and not the car towards the end of the game -- after the goat is gone
TamedShadow 1 month ago
@skylineiiigtr So when you swap towards the end. The door you didn't pick is more likely to have the car. The door you picked -- when the second goat was still in game [creating that 66% probability]-- is why you are more than likely going to lose if you stick with the door you chose at the beginning of the game.
TamedShadow 1 month ago
Comment removed
kaneminik 1 month ago in playlist Favorite videos
Now. Let's backtrack back to when the second goat was still in the game. You probably chose the goat over the car because of the 66% probability. That makes sense.
This is where that sense falls:
The game isn't 4 doors, 3 goats - 1, and 1 car. It's 3 doors, 2 goats - 1, and 1 car. Thus, it doesn't matter if you picked a goat or the car because of the probability. In the end, you will always have a car or a goat under the curtain you picked, which is most likely a goat..
I hate you all.
TamedShadow 1 month ago
Let me explain why this is not as problematic as it appears to be.
Yes, knowing that there are more goats than a car is going to cause you to choose the goat more often than the car. Which is a 66% probablity Vs. a 33% probability.
This is where things get confusing. This rule of probability would only stand if the host never took one of the goats out.
When the host takes away '1' goat. It's no longer 2 goats, and 1 car. It's 1 goat, and 1 car..
Continued - -
TamedShadow 1 month ago
Finally its explaied well!!
MtGLow 1 month ago
MAN, my mind is blown!
I always thought it was HAUL.
LowenStrosst 1 month ago
holy shit!!!
iPwntNubs 1 month ago
Mind rape
Cornoholio21 1 month ago
and the remaining 1% is if he opens the door instead of a goat :)
Thumbs up
Powhentall 1 month ago
or, you can beat the $#!@ out of the host and keep everything...
d34th15b4d 1 month ago
This has been flagged as spam show
I FINALLY GET IT.
MaxOnVox 1 month ago
What if he doesn't show u the other door
nevada247 1 month ago
@nevada247 If he doesn't reveal the other door, then swapping will be nothing more than taking another guess and the odds remain 33 percent to win the car.
NoNameC68 1 month ago
By switching you now have a 2 in three chance. That's the way I try to explain this conundrum and still people don't get it!
19822andy 1 month ago
uh, sorry to ruin everyone's "im so smart for knowing the monty hall solution", but it actually IS a 50/50 chance due to the law of independent probability, not 67/33
chadunn13 1 month ago
@chadunn13 Uh, sorry to ruin you "I'm so smart for 'knowing' the Law of Independent Probability," but it has been proven through various studies that you do, in fact, have a statistically significant higher probability to choose a car by switching your choice.
EvilTurnips 1 month ago
@EvilTurnips it's not like the 33% of the revealed door automatically carries over to the other unopened door. and i read in some places that statistically it's 50/50
chadunn13 1 month ago
@chadunn13 You can perform this experiment at home. Get 3 solid colored cups, one tiny object, and one family member. Have the family member pick a cup and stick with their guess 20 times. Then, do the same experiment, but always reveal the other "empty" cup and have them swap every single time. Do this 20 times. Record the results and compare.
NoNameC68 1 month ago
@chadunn13 wrong
SingingKittenTV 1 month ago
@chadunn13 This isn't a case of independent probability.
If you pick a goat on you first guess (2/3 chance), then swapping will ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS win you the car.
The video explains it so clearly that I really can't help you if you don't get it.
NoNameC68 1 month ago
@NoNameC68 ya, i get that you have a 2/3 chance if you switch FROM THE BEGINNING, but i was saying i disagree with the fact that everyone assumes that at that stage, when there are only 2 doors to choose from, that its a 2/3 chance from switching, when its really a 50/50 chance
chadunn13 1 month ago
@chadunn13 If he opened the door BEFORE you picked a door, then yes, it would be a 50/50 chance. However, there's 2 different criteria he must follow when opening a door.
1. He is not allowed to open the door you pick.
2. He is not allowed to open the door with the car behind it.
If he said "before you choose, let me open one of these doors," then he'll be able to pick which one of the two goat doors he can open. If you choose a door, then he can't open that door, no matter what...
NoNameC68 1 month ago
@NoNameC68 (cont.) You have a 2/3 chance of forcing him to pick a specific door, and a 1/3 chance of letting him pick whichever 2 doors he wants. This probably doesn't make sense, so how about you just see for yourself.
Go to the link in the following video's description:
/watch?v=s4FqEjwLT1Q&feature=watch_response
NoNameC68 1 month ago