Making Financial Sense of the Coming Energy Crisis

[144jr144]

This content is slightly off. One misconception is about inflation: that there is plenty of inflation now. There isn't. Rising prices of fuel and of goods shipped long distances isn't the same as currency inflation or credit inflation. Also, after decades of speculative credit inflation, that bubble has been deflating recently, bringing down prices of credit-dependent markets (such as real estate) in Japan, US, UK, & EU. BTW, I wrote "worth its weight in... oil" (published on Jim's site in '05).

[peakmoment]

@144jr144, this was taped in fall of 2008. However, with the quantitative easing going on -- printing more money to pay the US debt -- inflation seems alive and well. I've understood that the US and the Euro and others are all working to devalue their currencies. I think that's different than the bursting of the credit bubble you mention.

[144jr144]

@pm Hi. If $1 trillion of debt disappears in bankruptcy court quickly, which it can, that deflating of prior credit inflation is huge. Remember, currency is simply a financial contract. It symbolically represents some external capacity to do work. Oil (among other things) is the actual capacity to do work. Money is quite secondary. Considering that governments can be swamps of propaganda and incompetence, who cares what governments attempt to do? Deflation is here. What is "pay the US debt?"

[144jr144]

@pm re "what is pay the US debt?"

If by "US debt" you mean the bonds of the US treasury, remember 1933. The underwriters of the US treasury's debt are the US CITIZENS which legally includes all corporations. In 1933, ownership of gold coins by US CITIZENS was criminalized, constituting a huge confiscation. Consider what the USSR and other places did re debt: they "socialized" private property, like actual cars and buildings and mineral rights and water rights.

[144jr144]

@peakmoment  re "pay US debt"

if by "US Debt," you mean the unfunded liabilities that the US government has promised to pay to it's citizens like in social security payments, consider that the USSR and the Confederacy and the Mayan Empire made lots of promises and kept several but not all. Insurance companies like AIG keep SOME of their promises. When the US Military was "negotiating" with native americans... or with mexican nationals during the mexican-american war, SOME promises were kept.

[nemnaisa]

Puplava and his investment group PSF has not done any serious original research on oil. All they rely on is so-called research written by other energy agencies such as IEA, resulting in his prediction on oil price and macro pictures being totally off base, causing tremendous lost in his client's wealth. The public must be informed of Puplava's past record on inaccurate macro economic forecast and ill advising his clients on wrong investment strategy.

[peakmoment]

In the last six months I've listened to Pulava he has also interviewed Matt Simmons and Chris Nelder on Peak Oil, and they both did an excellent job.

I think a lot of investors, not just Jim's, have been whanged by the volatility in oil prices. Last summer the huge selling off of assets by big institutions needing to stay solvent was a major contributor to the precipitous drop in oil prices. I think it surprised almost everybody, because it didn't reflect the fundamentals (supply & demand).

[nemnaisa]

If he cannot predict this down turn due to credit contraction, he is no better than ordinary conventional wall-street commentators. Clearly, if we are currently experiencing S/D imbalance, this would directly be reflected on high oil price. The fact that oil price is heading below $30 tells me that JP and other Peak Oil advocates did not do they homework on properly analyzing the true S/D of oil.

[pohjalo]

and now it´s 78/bbl.

[nemnaisa]

While his contribution to educating the public about macro economic issues are admirable, his investment advice has absolutely devastated the wealth of his investors and loyal audience. I am not disputing the ultimate eventuality of Peak Oil, I am critical of the timing on his forecast.

[believeyouwould]

Keep an open mind on peak oil. Information on the true nature oil origination is not forthcoming as depicted by mainstream science for more than a century. Back in the 1950's the Russians struck oil 7 miles below the surface of the Earth. You won't find dead dino's and foilage at that depth. The last thing the powers want is disclosure on what this Earth is truly about. And eternal 30 cent/gallon gasoline is not in the cards. Besides, humans proliferate like wildfire even at current prices.

[nemnaisa]

Jim Puplava totally lacks the credibility and credential to say anything about Peak Oil and the oil industry. He is an incompetent money manager and financial adviser who is totally wrong on the timing of Peak Oil and as a result has destroyed the life savings of investors who followed his investment advice.

[believeyouwould]

Mr. Puplava is a gentlemen who offers a service at no charge to his listeners. If on the other hand you're a participating client of his... well. I've listened to the man for years and find him to be sincere in his convictions. Beyond that, I diverge from the his thinking regarding the peak oil scam. It is a scam. And reading 90 books on the subject corroborating one another does not make a truth. Mr. Puplava's due dligence is incomplete at best. His definition of inflation is spot-on however.

[nemnaisa]

Jim Puplava is an old fool who simple got the big pictures wrong...or at the very least his timing is way way off. Jim invested people's money into gold and oil junior companies. Look where they are now. I used to have respect for the man but he should be totally discredited. He does not deserve the respect that he created for himself. If Peak Oil is an immediate issue, it should be reflected in market pricing. So Jim should just shut up with his disinformation.

[jojo808]

Sounds personal. The market isn't so much the bottle neck as much as refineries, one reason why gas is low(for)now .Price goes Up,we cut usage. Supply/demand. More time and effort need to be spent on making Gas the alternative energy. The science behind Peak-oil is Sound and simple. Oil is Old World.

[Jacobrester]

Oil dependency is a huge problem, especially here in the USA. I truly hope President elect Obama pursues alternative energy. Every President for the last 40 years has said they would.

I also hope the USA starts to produce oil shale, which we have over 1 trillion barrels. However, I know the environmentalists hate this idea.

Peak Oil is a real problem, and it appears it is upon us right now.

[believeyouwould]

It's intentionally kept that way. It's not to the interest of glabalist bankers to have the U.S. independent of anything, much less oil. The Redshields along with the British crown re-aquired their colonies in 1913. It has been boom and bust ever since. The FED mandate was never to stablize US finance but rather extract wealth and ultimately deconstruct a soveriegn constitutional republic into a former nation state to be regionalized

into a NAU via Mexico & Canada. By design & intentional.

[Jacobrester]

You may be correct.......because the technology now exists that will allow the USA to become energy indedependent....

[believeyouwould]

Yes, and it doesn't help to repeatedly cite the works of Council on Foreign relations member Matt Simmons. An individual who attended Dick Cheney's secret energy task force meeting in 2001 and it's subsequent permanent US military Middle East occupation. Simmons never once conceded in any Puplava interview the possiblity of a FED induced demand destruction on all commodities. By merely restrictiing M1 money flow to the middle class, utterly predictable economic downturn ensued.

[144jr144]

@believeyouwould

By the way, boom and bust preceded 1913 even in North America. As for your critique of The Fed, are you condemning them, like with contempt? Governments influence the behavior of many people at the direction of a few. That's just what they do. That governing governors could be biased in accord with their own interests is evidence of nothing special. Governing happens by parents, churches, governments and other associations that do not call themselves governments or influencers

[johnknoefler]

"paper over a crisis" ya right. Each time they paper over a crisis the dollar devalues. So they are retarded. Mentally backwards as they cannot see reality.

[peakmoment]

Of course, we have to ask: who benefits? Is that an accident? They devalue the dollar, but meantime they get bailouts and get to write off billions. I don't think that's an accident: they benefit, while our dollar has lower purchasing power. Not retarded-but brilliant in working with the system as it is. The earth system, however and thankfully, can't support this inflating-growth economy forever.

[johnknoefler]

Well actually those banking elite are brilliant. But they are ruthless and there is no end to thier greed. If this guy actually believes the junk coming out of his mouth he is truly a moron. The ones who benifit are the federal reserve. Think of it... they loan money...Fiat money that costs them just the paper and ink. They create money out of thin air. This devalues our dollar. It's a theft of the value of our money. With this tool they don't need to tax us to steal.

[lilkliveshere]

Thank you Janaia and Robyn. I don't think this will convince my in-laws, but it might open some conversation toward the belief that we are living in a peak moment, yo. Cheers, r

[johnu78]

Keep up the great work!!! -John

[jellric]

Jim Puplava is execellant. I am so glad I discovered his radio program. It helped me understand years ago that this economic crisis was coming and it helps that he is peak oil-aware.

He has a great website also.

[peakmoment]

From "jojo808":

The science behind Peak-oil is Sound and simple. Oil is old world.

[ericladnier]

I knew all of this without having to listen to an expert. The amazing thing about this video isn't that he knows all of these facts, what's amazing is that six billion people are oblivious to thier situation. The lines to the fuel pumps keep getting longer, and the lines to the suv dealers keep getting longer too. Am I imagining all of this? What is really strange is that when the oil runs out people will turn to GOD and ask why did you do this to me?

[peakmoment]

I think it's pretty possible that people will look for who to blame. The increasingly-powerful corporations, including the advertising industry and now the mainstream media, are making sure we keep consuming more and more. And they are hiding or obfuscating the consequences, like the millions Mobil-Exxon paid scientists to cast doubt on the climate change evidence.

[believeyouwould]

Commit yourself to additional scrutiny concerning global warming. Aside from the fact that recent solar activity has enhanced global warming in our solar system, there is clever clandestine electromagnetic machination occuring right here on Earth. It involves a combination of technologies entailing artificially induced atmospheric changes. Chemtrailing, Scalar Interferometry, ELF's, Microwaving the sky etc. The signatures above are blantant once one becomes aware of the farce and fraudulence.

[peakmoment]

Regardless of the sources -- including possbily the many technologies you list, as well as carbon emissions and livestock flatulence -- the bottom line is to look at what's happening in the physical world. Ice caps melting, rising CO2 levels, and more extreme weather patterns (not just warming) are indicators that the atmospheric geology is no longer in a stable state. And human activity can change that, if it's not too late.

[believeyouwould]

The atmosphere left to it's own devices absent man made electromagnetic intervention is certainly stable. Solar cycles are THE reason for the latest global warming. Humans on this planet are criminally ignorant of their home planets natural occurrences throughout the ages. It's an inconvenient truth that humans are deliberately susceptible to nonsensical mainstream media mind control. It's beyond pathetic. So pay your New World Order tax increases when they inevitably arise as the bankers laugh.

[hoser4]

You are aware that we are in the least active solar cycle in recorded history, right? The last time something like this happened, England experienced a mini-ice age. All things considered, we should be in an ice age right now, but yet, our polar caps are melting, California is desertifying with all the droughts, ocean currents changing, etc. How ironic, that our CO2 levels just might be helping to keep this atmosphere in a temperate state.

[lilkliveshere]

Thank you Janaia and Robyn. I don't think this will convince my in-laws, but it might open some conversation toward the belief that we are living in a peak moment, yo. Cheers, r

[DonutMouse]

I'm curious as to the peak oil analysts' views of Ray Kurzweil's prediction that solar technology will cancel the threat of peak oil. PeakMoment should do a video on him or at least address his statements.

[peakmoment]

Would appreciate a link. Richard Heinberg notes that renewables (dams, solar, wind, etc.,) provide less than 1% of our energy needs. Plus, solar electricity cannot solve the liquid fuels crisis -- declining oil.

[limeywestlake]

OK, so we hook up solar panels and ramp up power in order for us to morph into a generation of wetware/ hardware hybrids that have upload-able emotions? I think not! Did you know that the byproduct of Solar PV production- silicon tetrachloride - is a toxic substance that poses environmental hazards?

I suggest we all have a re-think and come up with a solution where we get by with less, period. We do not need to triumph technologies that poison women and their unborn children.

[ericladnier]

Don't forget the deep cycle batteries. Can they be sustainable and healthy?

[blueeggsitter]

REALLY appreciate ALL the peakmoment videos. They are informative, interesting and I always learn something! I find great comfort in connecting with like-minded individuals.

[peebeebaynut]

But what about the peak powdered toast crisis? If worldwide production of powdered toast doesn't grow then the population will TOTALLY FAIL to have a balanced breakfast. :(

[Utka9]

Really good show! yes, I was wondering if you will have this interview with J.H.Kunstler

[peakmoment]

Yes, it's coming. Next we'll have Randy Udall, co-founder of ASPO-USA who's got a strong message, too.

[Glargl]

If the current economic crisis is indeed caused by declining energy resources, would it be fair to assume that we're in for a long drawnout crash? The consensus just some 6 months ago was that we'd hit $200 oil soon and it would just keep on rising. Now, it seems we're in for a long series of recessions, followed by brief moments of growth which spur oil price increases which then sends us back into recession. How will this affect the depletion curve? When will we see actual energy scarcity?

[peakmoment]

These are great questions. Although the oil demand is being reduced, which will likely make the oil depletion curve more shallow, the demand is still increasing in countries like China. The credit crunch and lower oil prices mean there's less exploration, which also means lowered production.

[kkob]

In fact, what we can probably expect is that the downturn has created Peak. The thinking is this: We were already at plateau/peak, hitting miniscule new highs this year. Now, if demand falls world wide, but we're still pumping 74 million barrels a day less decline of 5.2+ percent, then we are also depleting reserves that we cannot replace and have not for nearly 3 decades. By the time strong exploration and development resume, much of the trillion remaining reserves will be gone. Peak is now.

[DFORCE1969]

THe beginning of the end of Global capitalism and not a moment too soon!

Any chance of an interview with James Howard Kunstler?

[impalapez]

check the info, it reads that kunstler is coming soon...

[bpmca69]

Two great shows in a row. Will look to get involved in ASPO as a result. People are hungry for good information now so this is great food for thought. Kudos.

[Redshift21]

People just don't understand that this could so easily lead to a (limited) collapse of social order and people starving in countries where starvation has not been seen in over a century, it has all the makings of a second "great depression", only with the added misery of a much larger population.

Food, water and energy are going to become harder to produce and a drop in living standards may well have to happen just to survive.

[5starrater1]

I listened to an interview by Lindsay Williams (not that I believe everything he says) but over a year ago he said about oil prices going down to $50 a barrel before hyperinflation hits the US. Very interesting.

Great vid as always. 5/5