2010-2011 Winter Outlook

[WPJonny]

this wnter for NY has been crazy every week it looks like we have a storm

[xthehernandezx]

How much snow do you think for The northern va area around arlington ,va

[piloneman]

@jetsjetsjets1000 Thats too bad. But it will happen sooner or later, like it or not.

Me, I have been ready for snow and i got a feeling Maryland will have decent winter.

[jetsjetsjets1000]

I HATE THE COLD ND THE SNOW!!!

[dominatorofgods]

you think baltimore maryland will get tons snow

[whiteclaudia9]

I've noticed that each winter here in Oregon has been getting colder. Not by a lot, but I've been noticing. A white Christmas sounds nice, but I have an ominous feeling lately. Did the oil spill really mess up the gulf current, or is that all just a bunch of hooey?

[TreyOConner]

@whiteclaudia9 I think that oil spill did mess up the current. Only for the NE part of the GOM.

[iDenmark]

Tell me about Europe please!

[TreyOConner]

@iDenmark I'm sorry, I do not do other county weather. I can not keep up with the hole entire world weather.

[WJJ1968]

Last year was a snow jackpot here in Central Virginia but with La Nina I am expecting almost none this year.

[TreyOConner]

@WJJ1968 are you kidding me? Virginia will get snow. may not be much as last years, but you will get snow.

[WJJ1968]

@TreyOConner - A local met educated me on the difference between a moderate and a strong La Nina as I was associating La Nina with snow droughts of the past (here in Richmond where we are usually on 'the line' anyway) so I stand corrected. Thanks for the feedback.

[joerover22]

you think the SE will have more snow than last yeaR? that would be great. last year was an amazing winter for snow related activities... it snowed at least twice a week which was ridiculously awesome. Coming from northeast tennessee that is.

[TreyOConner]

@joerover22 so your now living in tennessee? that state is a good state. For the snow now, its depending on where you are. If your in the mountains of TN, I think you will get some decent snowfall. Of course it won't be twice a week though. I think the SE is going to have a frustrating winter year. Only because of that La Nina.

[joerover22]

@TreyOConner o no ive lived here my whole life, was saying snow twice a week is awesome but thats coming from a tennessee stand point

[ChaseThatTornado67]

up at midnight for it! hahaha so i think the 2011 winter should be average or colder not warmer

[TreyOConner]

@ChaseThatTornado67 hahaha... i like that!

[MrUltimatej]

I have a question about this forecast. You say the southwest states such as California...ect.. will be drier than usual. In fact, you actually have that dry area going all the way north to Vancouver. Then you have a huge blue spot in the midwest, that you predict will see a high rate of snow. My question is this, where are the storms going to come from to dump all that snow in the midwest? Alberta Clippers, on average, don't drop that much snow.

[TreyOConner]

@MrUltimatej i think it will be dry for all of the SW and part of the W. For the midwest, it won't be just the alberta clippers. It will be low pressure systems coming from the NW. Most of the time in winter across the midwest it stays cold all winter. So there for the midwest will see a lot of snow all together before winter is over.

[mark40511]

In Lexington KY last year we ended up with a seasonal total of right at 2 feet.

Thanks Trey!

[padude64]

No problem Trey! You are doing a great job!!!

[padude64]

Trey is a good person and those of you cutting on him need to get a life just like the useless republicans need to get a life! For one, I know more meteorology than most of you and 2, since this summer was so hot, and falll and winter approaching, the lake waters will be warmer than previous winters and the Gulf stream will play a role when combined with the arctic jet stream. Great job Trey!

[TreyOConner]

@padude64 thanks for the support.

[mrswebkinz99]

is this winter going to be worse in the dallas-fort worth area than last years?

[Markey0086]

I am predicting over the next five years for one mild winter three very cold winters and one normal based on old climatology. Arctic snow/ice increase and a return to 1970s level since we reached our warm phase max two or three summers ago. We are in a cold phase now for the next 25 or so years just as we were in a warm phase for some 25 years and a cold phase before that. Global cooling then warming back and forth is normal.

[TreyOConner]

@Markey0086 that sounds reasonable.

[Markey0086]

Trey,

What methodology are you using for your forecasts? I do my own winter forecast each year in late Oct-early Nov. I need to see the trends in October to get a good idea and how the NAO, AO, PDA and other things have been averaging.

I will also use soil moisture in my forecasts as well as several things I do not mention and I have been about 80% on my forecasts so far which I consider pretty good when the government forecasts are about 30%. Bastardi is about 70%.

Mark

[TreyOConner]

@Markey0086 The methodology I'm using is the past weather trends. I've been doing winter weather forecasting for 11 years now. Just by observing the weather I can predict what could happen within the next winter. I use other winter weather forecasters map and I compare them with my own weather maps to help me predict the weather. We could be in for a weak La Nina pattern this winter. I think it will be so weak it will not even effect our weather patterns this upcoming winter season.

[crf450ish]

Hey I live in the Pacific Northwest(western WA state).....how our outlook look?

[TreyOConner]

@crf450ish well, if you live in the mountains in the western WA you will most likely be having all snow. Depending on your elevation. If you are lower than 5,000-10,000 ft. ASL you will get rain then snow. Snow levels will drop from time to time.

[MsGurtej101]

what do you think the winter for toronto ontario canada will be . i hope its cold and snowy

[TreyOConner]

@MsGurtej101 you are in a good spot, for cold and snow.

[inalikealoha]

So Indiana is supposed to be colder and snowier than average? I sure hope so! Last winter was a dud.

[TreyOConner]

@inalikealoha yeah I would say around average, or sometimes above average.

[pureitalian911]

looks like its goin to be record warm for the east this winter but winter going to kick in in late november early december but then getting warmer but if the east gets a warm winter we wont have one for a few winters

[crdennis123]

I live in south MS. the writing you have over the Southeast is so light, you can't read it.

[TreyOConner]

@crdennis123 it says, colder than average, few more snows than average.

[weathermanadair]

it's wrong were heading to a strong la nina + solar activity is low and volcanoes are erupting, so i'll have to say the 2010/2011 winter will be one of the coldest the world has ever seen, but india and indonesia should have above normal temperatures and precipitation because of the strong la nina

[SuperUshistory]

I think the Precipitation Prediction for the South east is correct. I live in Upstate South Carolina. Last year we got around 6-7 inches in my area.

[TreyOConner]

@SuperUshistory the precipitation is any where from 40%-85% correct. I do believe the SE is going to have a little bit more snow than last year.

[pureitalian911]

kk =)



[piloneman]

@pureitalian911

In this case, I hope your wrong.

Hate having to go through a dry, boring winter like 5 years back.

But we'll see what happens.

[pureitalian911]

nahh its to early Nina looks westbond northeast is going to have a drier winter like 06-07

[TreyOConner]

@pureitalian911 out west is going to have a dry winter. But we will all see when winter gets closer.

[nacdude09]

i live in east tx and last year we got our 2nd biggest snowfall since winter of 99' and it also snow very often and it was really cold(like 3 times) do u think it will be the same this year?

[nacdude09]

i live in east tx and last year we got our 2nd biggest snowfall since winter of 99' and it also snow very often and it was really cold(like 3 times) do u think it will be the same this year?

[TreyOConner]

@nacdude09 east TX is going to have around average temps this winter. Sometimes a very strong cold front will pass threw, that will knock the temps below average. I think you will have at least 1 or 2 good snow storms maybe 3. Most of the time the plain states get ice storms more than snow.

[TreyOConner]

@piloneman yeah, Maryland will be getting a lot of snow this winter season. Last winter season the NE had a lot of low pressure systems coming up the coast and bringing snow inland. The isobars were close together bringing almost blizzard like conditions.

[piloneman]

@TreyOConner Heck, their were blizzards - there were high winds and white-out conditions. The first snowfall was in December and Maryland never had that much snow - specifically here in Maryland, which I thought a nice early Christmas present and in overall, we had like, 20" for that storm. In celebration, I ordered dinner for my family. The 2nd one in febuary was our biggest - even bigger than the 2003 storm and windier, and the 3rd big snowstorm was not only colder, but the windiest of all 3.

[TreyOConner]

@piloneman yep, your in the blizzard hot zone for this upcoming winter season.

[piloneman]

@TreyOConner Oh, boy. And I thought we had it bad this past winter. You telling me that, I guess we're gonna be in for it again this upcoming winter. But I am glad you told me about it. I'm going to enjoy every moment of it, being since, I'm a big snow fan:) Please, do keep me posted on the udates for this years winter, ok?

You have a very good night, sir : )

[Cavin21]

yet here's another winter forecast which will turn out to fail.. Predicting winter is NEVER accurate, we don't have the technology and intelligence to do that.. Again it's only a prediction and I love to hear what people think...

[TreyOConner]

@Cavin21 Yep your right, its only a prediction. I've been doing the weather for 11 years. Every winter, I can tell the winter is becoming colder and with more snow. Even places that haven't even seen snow. More weather videos coming soon.

[Cavin21]

@TreyOConner

Is that supposed to be some kind of a joke? I realise every winter is becoming warmer and less snow, for instance, take the great blizzard of 1978, I doubt we'll EVER see something like that again...

[TreyOConner]

@Cavin21 1978? that was years ago. The world climate does change. I would not say we'll never see something like that again. No it's not a joke, you never know when nature strikes. Besides those maps were not mine that are in the video. If you try to make this an argument out of this, I will remove your comments and block you. Administrator, @ TreyOconner's channel.