Smart Trades Update 12.21.11 S&P, Nasdaq, Dow, Crude, Euro, Gold

[PianoFlight1159]

Greetings Bill,

There is a wave count on the Dow and S&P that I have recently considered. What if the market action during May-December was a triangle, with

Wave A: May 2 - October 4

Wave B: October 4 - October 27

Wave C: October 27 - November 28

Wave D: November 28 - December 7

Wave E: December 7 - December 19

I am interested to know if you think this is a plausible wave count, and why or why not?

Thank you very much for your help.

[T1systems]

@PianoFlight1159 It's possible, but *if* it's a triangle I think it's more likely we are still working on "B". The entire "B-E" pattern in your count is very short time wise relative to "A". Moreover, keep in mind I count "A" as having begun in February (the rally to the May peak best counts as an "abc"). In that case "A" lasted 7+ months, and "B" is still relatively proportional. Great question!

[T1systems]

@PianoFlight1159 While there is no arbitrary rule for how long "B-E" should last relative to "A", In every example I'm aware of from Elliott himself, or the EWP, "B-E" lasts longer in time than "A". One might expect "B" to last 50-90% as long as "A", and "C" to last 50-90% as long as "B", and so on (yes there could be exceptions). In your case "B-E" *combined* last about 50% as long as "A". Wave B is about three weeks, while "A" is five months. "D" is just over a week.

[PianoFlight1159]

@T1systems Thank you for the advice. Those guidelines are very helpful.

[T1systems]

Several chart updates at facebook this morning (12.23.11) . You can find the link at my site, or search facebook for smarttrades dot com (note: beware there are a lot of folks using variations of my smart trades, so it might be easiest to follow my links here). Please be sure to like me on Facebook., Thanks! Merry Christmas!

[T1systems]

I also update charts @ facebook from time to time. Please find the link at SmartTrades