Peak Oil - a different perspective

[swardinc]

Besides that what about higher tech will it require more energy? for instance a drill runs say at 5 units of energy well what about a drill that is a laser? Does it require more energy to run? So while coal works if you do the math coal+current tech=energy, so does that mean that future tech would decrease that? leigh8959 pointed out 700 years of coal at current energy requirements? so 250 years less more?

[swardinc]

odd, why are not some of the solutions presented in this video as well? for instance there are people who will mod your transport to be completely electric same for the house. there already plenty of substantial community all over the world so again im not sure why that was not mention. not to mention the fact that coal while true it will work, has one problem if a device uses 5 units of energy on oil how many for say coal? 

[miketonon]

Crude oil is abiotic! Meaning it replenishes itself!

If global warming is happening, the biggest culprit by far would be the sun!

[typeclash]

Why would economic problems due to peak oil have the effect of less children being born? I was under the impression that economic wealth might decrease the production of children.

[MrEnergyCzar]

You get it...good job...

[jimbobubbadj]

Also in the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the Arabs cut off the oil supply to the United States because of its support for Isreal in the 1973 Arab-Isreali war. This time the taps have not been closed and yet oil production has peaked.

[smolkasinferno]

Two words for you, Permaculture and Biofuels. Many are unaware of the rich suppressing the use of alcohol as a viable alternative. Plant matter is everywhere apposed to having to have expensive equipment affordable to the few. Never mind if peak oil is a hoax or not.

[cptnsmelly]

As true as that is, oil companies do not want to transition, and it's not as easy as just suddenly relying 100% on natural gas, plant oils, etc. The infrastructure to handle the materials has yet to be produced on a large enough scale for us to totally rely on those materials. In my opinion, we should only be using plant oils, etc. for producing plastics and NOT electricity. We should start transitioning to renewable electricity much faster than we are now.

[jimbobubbadj]

Too much biofuels production causes soil depletion. Infinite growth on a finite planet is impossible.

[BGBurch]

What's your take on the Gull Island Oil pool - it's said the Gull Island oil find is even larger than the Prudhoe Bay field - best kept secret?

[gabbe81]

I really don't mind peakoil. Sure gas prices are insane for sure. But this will force our societies to develop clean green fuels, localy produced... It'a about time that we stop buying oil from the middle east. That oil is tainted with blood. It's time that the west again, becomes a provider of energy, instead of importer. And also it would be nice to be able to breathe fresh air, instead of pollution...

[Mettezz11]

I'm not a doomer but i consider myself as a realist.

And in my opinion we all are facing a 2nd great depression that will hit us like a train because of peakoil and this great depression will be a lot worse and not so easy to get out from.

No jobs, No food, No heat, No healthcare and nowhere to escape can you get closer too doomsday then that?

I agree with everything you are saying but Doomers are in my eyes people who believe in the olduvai theory and scenarios like that

[jayrp]

Of course the author is suggesting to increase the consumption of coal in order to make Peak Oil a more livable scenario.

Anyway, great video nonetheless. Cheers bro, and thanks for spreading the word. BTW, I like the way you edit your videos and thus are able to pack information in only 10 minutes.

[jayrp]

I agree with the comment that the author of this video is too optimistic. It is going to be much harder than the portrays. For example, he says "oil is peaking, but there are other resources such as coal and natural gas" - he talks about these as if they are just sitting there not being used. We are heavily dependent on coal and natural gas. Natural gas shortages will occur soon, and coal is supposed to peak in about 25 or 30 years ASSUMING CONSUMPTION OF COAL DOES NOT INCREASE.

[jayrp]

Great video. I like his take on Global Warming. I had already reached the same conclusion: GB is really about Peak Oil, but the American public does not have the psychology to face Peak Oil yet, though that is changing now that gas prices are increasing so rapidly (and still cheap).

[KARStarla]

I keep my mind open as I research through all this and I cant help being very aware theres something (not so good)is on its way into our lives. Buying an aircar wont help, if you have no job. Making your home solar means squat if you have a mortgage to pay and you foreclose and are driven out etc.

What I still have questions on are these videos

"The Energy Non Crisis" (parts 1-9) by Lindsey Williams and "Syndrome of control" by him as well.

What are your thoughts on these?

[CaptMidnight31]

. Mass production of electric vehicles could again make the United States a world leader that manufactures something that is good for our environment and our economy. Tax Credits for manufactures within the United States would also have the added benefit of decreasing the trade deficit and increasing tax revenues and creating a stronger economy. An added benefit of electric vehicle production is more jobs, improving air quality, and decreasing our dependence on foreign oil.

[ZeroFuel31]

Mass production of electric Vehicles could make us a world leader in Electric Vehilce production and create more jobs for our economy and improve the quality of life in America and decrease our dependence on foreign oil. google TeslaMotors and Phoenix Electric Vehicles

[mrhw2526]

Kind of schizophrenic comments...it's going to bad but it's not going to be that bad...this guy is way to optimistic. He should listen to his own comments..."we need to prepare or it will be bad"...that is all well and good...but I don't see our society preparing...the word is out..but nobody is listening...it will be more disruptive than he is saying IMHO

[Germania31]

Mass production of electric Vehicles could make us a world leader in Electric Vehilce production and create more jobs for our economy and improve the quality of life in America and decrease our dependence on foreign oil.

Google Teslamotors Phoenix EV

[Teller3448]

Excellent research and delivery! This guy could/should be a TV pundit.

[highway234]

lol. he's too smart to be a tv pundit, but yeah, i agree. i've been brooding over peak oil for a long time, some days optimistic, some days pessimistic, but this cat's given me a lot of new things to think about. clever fellow for sure.

[JasonDamisch]

Very Good Talk

[ToYouWhoHaveEars]

world oil supply remains UNKNOWN due to the fact oil producing countries don't accurately report what's in the wells if they disclose the information at all. It is reasonable to believe that the oil cartel, much like the diamond mine owners, curtail production creating artificial scarcity which drives up the price. It's a 100 trillion$ game.

[underaserpentsun]

watch?v=NbakN7SLdbk

[anilomd]

I am happy I stumbled upon another one of your videos for the first time when it appeared under "Related Videos" one day. I found this particular video on peak oil insightful and interesting...not boring. Please keep up the excellent work.

[KingMucktoad]

Peak oil is a very important issue, but climate change is equally important.

As for other fossil fuels they are all ecxpected to peak in the next 20-30 years.

very informative video (if a bit dull)

good job man

[ravishane]

ZeketheSwede:

I think that, in America anyway, renewables will turn into community-builders with people all over the place working on wind and solar production. It doesn't need to be a major federal solution. It needs to be a local solution. If you spread out solar panels across *the country* the size of say, New Jersey, that could provide more than 20% (along with about 150 new wind farms).

[ZeketheSwede]

I enjoy what you say. But that is also necessary if we should reach a global average of 20 %, because not much will happen in China and India in that respect. However, peak oil will be the major challenge to your society, considering your infra structure and life style.

[ZeketheSwede]

Renewables will not account for more than 20 % of the global energy mix, at best, in a generation. They are not sufficiently energy intensive to be economically viable on a large scale. So we can choose between an economic depression or a severe climate crisis. No doubt what the choice will be!

[wwood14]

What about the abiotic(spelling) oil theory?

[mrhw2526]

abiotic oil theory...you nailed it with the word theory. Even if it is true..it will not make a difference.

[daglobe]

A little rambling on key points but great perspective on this topic that people either tend to deny completely or overdramatize. Good comments - it's really happening, it takes time to adjust, it's a big deal but not necessarily a doomsday scenario, and individuals need to start adjusting asap.

[IslandMultimedia]

Holy cow this is a boring video though, man--you might as well just type it as an essay. You're not using the fetures of multimedia--there's no soundtrack, visual effects, nothing but a talking head!

[lorax2013]

I know, I know. Sorry but you'll have to tune in to the evening news for cute announcers and effects - wait another 10 years, maybe then they'll even cover peak oil.

[leigh8959]

"The estimated operating costs range from $6 to $14 per barrel for bitumen and $18 to $22 per barrel for synthetic crude oil. The estimated supply costs ranges from $14 to $24 per barrel for bitumen and from $36 to $40 per barrel for synthetic crude oil. Supply costs include operating costs, capital costs, taxes, royalties and the rate of return on investment."

on the National Energy Board Website (Canada)

[sas331]

it's TEOTWAWKI = OLDUVAI THEORY

[leigh8959]

GW and peak oil are both legitimate problems. However, peak oil is much easier to solve with our ~700 years of coal, bitumen and shale. It's cheaper to convert these to oil than you'd think:

coal (Fischer-Tropsch): $30 per barrel

bitumen (in-situ/ ex-situ): $9/$15 per barrel

shale: ??

My #s are just off the top of my head-> Look to ASPO, Canadian Tar Sands literature and Sasol (South Africa).

In other words, peak oil is easier to solve than GW; it's solution makes GW much much worse.

[lorax2013]

Coal conversion estimates are over $50 per barrel. The problem is that they are rapidly inflating due to materials costs. If there was actually a viable profit margin, industry could lock it in and fund massive construction. That's not being done. As for bitumen - limited supply and I question that much will yield $15 / barrel oil. Shale is currently a fantasy. However, I do think Fischer-Tropsch & GTL will be the main replacements immediately post peak.

[tv10morehead]

the national peak and the current refinery capacity problems are/were engineered as oil company memos from the early 1990's were exposed that curbing refinery repair and expansion was to be used to maintain and improve the margin on oil products over 15years ago. When have you ever heard of a new refinery being built? None of the ones Bush proposed for mothballed Military bases have been built yet?

[jackson32]

The problem with nuclear energy, at least in the west, is that we now live under big government with it's high taxes, high regulation, bad laws, and a very uninformed populace. To implement a huge nuclear program under this system will be very, very difficult.

[TomsFriendKake]

One reactor that offers promis is the pebble-bed reactor. They would be almost impossible to melt down, and they operate effecient enough to produce hydrogen from water instead of natural gas. These reactors could also be used to turn sea water into fresh water.

[jackson32]

Something that almost nobody mentions is nuclear energy. I believe, and I could be wrong about this, they are capable of building fast breeder nuclear power plants that also reprocess the fuel so that you get 30 times the energy and much less nuclear waste. If this is true it could be the answer to our energy problem.

[UnderseaCaveman]

Why didn't you mention TAR Sands and OIL shales along with Coal-to-Liquid.... because they all suffer the same LOW energy-returned-on-energy-expe­nded problem. Liquid Oil is way way more efficient to "extract and produce"...and everything in transportation depends on it. And most things depend on Transportation.....go figure.

[UnderseaCaveman]

Pt2.....It's already a doomsday scenario for 100 thousands of formerly alive Iraqis and Americans.

[UnderseaCaveman]

"PEAK OIL" implies PEAK PRODUCTION....if more reserves are coming on line, then we won't be at PEAK....it will be shifted to later.

National Peak (70's) and Global Peak ('07) are 2 different animals. Hubbert predicted National Peak in 70s and Global in 2000.

[soylentgreenb]

"If more reserves are coming on line, then we won't be at PEAK"

Not nescessarily true. If reserves comming online are almost enough to make up for the decline of other regions you'll get a broad, flat peak.

[UnderseaCaveman]

Right, thank you....of course...

[UnderseaCaveman]

Incorporate "Doubling Period" in your analysis of future demand (driven by fractional reserve bank and need to fulfill future loan payments above and beyond means). The typical Gaussian Shaped Supply Curve will be shifted to a reversed Rayleigh's Distribution for Global Oil due to loss of competitive pricing .. "must have commodity".

[UnderseaCaveman]

pt2... Rayleigh Distribution implies that Oil fields will be pumped much harder beyond their mid-life due to lack of giant oil fields in prime of life. Demand destruction is not possible in an economy fed by Fractional Reserve Banking without 90% destruction of Economy.... We are just 5-10 years away from the ultimate horror show! (Relative horror)..steep decline!

[UnderseaCaveman]

In Mob situations, you have to think in NonLinear Response Terms..... The Mob can not adjust ORDERLY, it always becomes UN-RULY....The Mob includes the Financial Markets!

[UnderseaCaveman]

pt4 Basically in 30 years the Human Population has to reduce to 10% of present...about 700 Million Homo Sapiens...that will be the hard-core resilent bunch that made it thru the carnage!

[lorax2013]

Regarding the doomsday scenarios - I would agree if it weren't for reserves growth, coal to liquids, increased LNG production. South Africa was another example I forgot. The same doomsday arguments were made throughout the 1970s - we were supposed to be fighting each other with sticks by now. A moderate vs steep decline and rapidly decreasing birthrate will be the lynchpins of controlled powerdown vs. disaster.

[gazzyjeanne]

I think you are overly optimistic. The US will lose all its imports by 2020, so if the world production is down by 50% the US will be down by at least double that. The industrial age will end so we will be forced to regress to an agrarian age without sufficient energy to build new infrastructure. Before the industrial age the agrarian age could support less than 1 billion so a world population of 6.5 billion becomes impossible.

[tju38]

lorax2013 is the truth... Seth is redeemed, Horus is happy :)

[landyowner]

'This is just a cover story' - Thank you! That's what I've been saying for months now but hardly anyone even knows what peak oil is. In fact most don't even realise how much oil is entwined with their life. =-/

Oh well, I've started prepping now, even if that only means curtailing energy usage, learning to grow my own food and buying gold to protect my wealth.

Thanks for the video =)