Amory Lovins: We must win the oil endgame

[rayzars]

$26 per barrel in 2025!!!! HAHAHAHA  good estimate huh? I wish

great vid!!

[MrPEDOCTOR]

Great video... i like it a lot

[blackbeltcrane]

You forgot to mention all of the revenue lost through taxation of the oil industry and the massive job loss that would be the result.

[Proteus6684]

If oil consumption stops and nobody needs dollars to buy oil wont the american economy have problems? i.e. funding its incredibly expensive military?

[RamadaArtist]

[I hate these but this is too good]

8 people are the CEO's of major oil companies.

[mateo134]

I'll look more into what he's saying, but I'm very weary as an engineer of any big claims. People assume there's some super hyperdrive technology the corporations and the government are hiding, but there's really not. For example, carbon fiber costs 20 times more than steel and hybridization/electrification of cars may be a much more cost-effective route as oil prices continue to increase.

[robz40]

Jevons paradox: increasing efficiency INCREASES absolute consumption.

[LKBM]

@robz40 ...sometimes.

[GiancarloD87]

Google Amory Lovins 1984 Prediction, can't believe people are still buying what this guy is selling.

[trakkaton]

@GiancarloD87

I googled it and read it.

It's called "Green Energy Advocate Amory Lovins: Guru or Fakir?" (What?!), and it's pretty dumb. It acts as if the possibilities that Amory Lovins pointed out would be immune to sabotage. Well, they are not, and the lobbying of Big Oil, the rampant corruption of the US, the psychotic war criminal Reagan that ended Jimmy Carters energy revolution, the petrod0llar, the car companies, the prehistoric energy infrastructure of the US, etc. are just sabotage.

[GiancarloD87]

Guy has been wrong so much

[1madaboutguitar]

This guy is so amazingly practical

[RasthemonksputiN]

This man does not have the benefit of an "echo chamber" ( the "Republican Noise Machine", for example). The question the listnener needs to ask is how we can help give that to him. I have created my own channel as a result of this.

[elquemando]

Lovins is a living national treasure

[parthenogen]

please copy the url and paste it to the white house contact page.

whitehouse dot gov(forward slash)contact

this country could lead the world again.

instead of begging from countries that are feeding off of us.

or countries we blindly give money to sponsor terrorism.

[IPossessAHugePenis]

Interesting points, but I wonder if he has ever heard of the military industrial complex. Markets are not philosophy or hard science.

[Frenchdayz]

Canada is supposed to have as much oil as the Emirate states only its in sand and soils, making it between 3-5 times more costly to extract. For every 1 unit of energy you use to extract oil in the Emirates you gain 25 units of energy in the form of oil, for every 1 unit of energy you use to extract oil in sands, you get 5 units of energy back, still not a bad return but with the likes of BP making $1900/second, a 1/5 reduction in energy return is a nightmare scenario.

[duck24x]

Amory Lovins is great, he's a hero, we all know that. But, I really don't like this TED series. It can't distinguish practical advice-givers from total bullshit artists. And, it's completely prejudiced against allowing political activists, including people held hostage in American prisons, from speaking.

[texasblessings]

Amory Lovins is the most brilliant human being I've ever met. He hasn't fought nuclear; he said it would fail on its own financial merits, which it has. As for energy comsumption, he's right there, too. Its not gone up as the nuclear & coal proponents said it would, check it out at DOE, demand is DOWN, efficiency is UP, and most of you who've posted here have fewer brain cells in your skull than Lovins has in his pinkie. He offers real hope. Get a life!

[puxamix]

For such an expert in cars and energy he can not tell the diference between a Mclaren and a MERCEDES! OIL WILL END IN 5 TO 10 YEARS! DO NOT WORRY ABOUT IT!

[D4vy87]

It's a Mercedes Mclaren SLR, for someone who likes to point out other people are wrong, you aren't very right yourself.

[brechtjah]

Don't worry why your post got downrated because you were right on ;-)

[Thedreamshaperabc]

@puxamix

Link me to the peer reviewed paper for the 5-10 year estimate please

[kingmike40]

Who pays for the "free" cars?

[kingmike40]

Where is he getting his information about the wind power in the dakotas can power every land vehicle? How do you get the power from a windmill in the dakotas to florida?

[soylentgreenb]

This is the same Amory Lovins who calls 50 MW natural gas turbines "micropower".

The very same who keeps chanting that efficiency will lower energy and electricity consumption(not could; _will_). Jevon's paradox and the rebound effect, brushed aside without substantive retort.

The same who has been claiming cellulosic ethanol will solve US oil imports for nigh on 3 decades now. Cellulosic hasn't even got off the ground yet and largely amounts to mining topsoil.

The guy is a gas salesman.

[paul8kangas]

We the inventors are now in charge. The ruling class is dead wrong on most issues.

Lovins is totally opposed to the GRID. Good. Lovins thinks we must build solar, stand alone, housing, off the GRID.

Such solar houses pay for themselves in 7 years.

[KnightBiologist]

Amory Lovins is one of those nerds that we need to listen to when it comes to really facing and solving the fossil fuel addiction we have. He is a physicist and energy expert with a long history of accomplishment. Check him out.

Thanks TEDtalks for featuring!

[narcolepsy2006]

I really don't think this guy understands the 'scale' of the problem.

[moldyoreo]

perhaps, but every little bit counts.

[blackle4ps3]

australia has 300 hp electric motors & self sustaining high output generators have oil & power companies financial influence corrupted all governments and industries.

[blackle4ps3]

Obama will he return funding to (see) YouTube - hot dry rock enviro Video #303 and make U.S.A nuclear power free

[KirbySings]

WOw this guys breathing is so annoying

[PressForFreedom]

Free Markets FTW!

Get the government out of business and the business of choking regulation, and creative motivated people will take the risks and find the answers!

[ReginaldCrates]

free markets are imperfect and highly discriminating... they dont work in real life as they do on paper so they're anti-ftw

[soylentgreenb]

Free markets are highly discriminatory against bad ideas, that's why they work so well.

Free markets recognize that solar is an albatross. That's why it's necessary to have government cripple the only sensible solution, which is nuclear, and promote the completely unworkable solution, which is wind and solar.

Natural gas pushers like Amory Lovins and Enron agree; renewables make you hopelessly dependent on their gas. Coal pushers don't mind if you ignore their only competitor, nuclear.

[themaninblackbtr]

Good points Flyhead.

[fossilman2]

Lovins is trapped in an 'economics as salvation' mindset. The interception of bona fide biowastes is useful only inasfar as they were heading to landfills.  The conversion of fieldwaste (big ag) or slash waste (logging) is a recipe for de-enriching those soils which gave rise to the plants in the first place.

[fossilman2]

Phosphate prodicing rocks are already in short supply and fossil fuel derived nitrogen fertilizers are on the way out with no replacement in sight. Lovins seems to ignore the very large engineering problem of fueling the colossal global requirement over a several decade long run.

[MrScudge]

Lovins is not trapped in that 'economics' mindset - it is just the quickest way to a businessman's heart. He was one of the first Friends of the Earth in the UK. He once showed me how you could measure absolutely everything in terms of energy. He is a energy guru, not a money man.

[fossilman2]

I'm sure you are aware of the historical and projected extraction curves for the 3 main fossil fuels. I appreciate what Lovins is trying to do vis a vis political, psychological, and economic realities. My concern lies with the average person hearing a talk like this and feeling way too good about how things will sort themselves out.

[MrScudge]

I am not sure the average person is feeling too good about how things are - it's the bonkers bankers and politicians who need to be convinced. Incidentally, bluetwinky(?), hybrids don't need plugging in, that's their point. Using less energy of any sort is easiest and primary objective. Who was it said humans used solar power until they found it buried underground? Got to get back to the sunbeam solution.

[fossilman2]

I have had the 'peak oil' discussion with all types of minds and personalities for the last ten + years. People believe what they hear about and they certainly will not hear about an inevitable decline in every aspect of 'modern life' from mainstream media. Even if their minds did entertain the idea of a general decline the discomfort it brings would make them put it aside. There are too many fictional meta-realities for them to escape into.

[martinmack1]

Very clever chap but...It's a bit worrying from the point of view that biofuel production increases the price of raw food ingredients e.g. price of corn tortillas in Mexico. Also we should discourage Brazilians cutting down the rainforest to grow crops for ethanol.

[bluetwinky]

So ... screw it. If we don't want to burn ethanol we have options. Windpower, as Mr. Lovins mentioned, or nuclear power could serve plugin hybrids. Or clean electric power could serve that most frightening and insideous of technologies: electric trains. The obstacles are not overwhelming.

The stone age didn't end because we ran out of stones.

[lwanatt]

bio fuels do have potential, yes its ludicrous to waste human fuel in our cars but tons of organic waste is thrown away that could be used to make bio fuels

[flyhead2]

The US military is interested in preventing conflict???

Co-sponsored by the Pentagon and independant????????

Either someone slipped some powerful psychotrophic tincture into my earl gray or this guy is bonkers.

[juscurious]

rubbish

[Subutubiata]

Innovation comes straight out of the dynamic, state sector of the economy. It's usually disguised as military research (the internet, semiconductors, parallel processing, etc), enabling twats like this to waffle endlessly about the wonders of capitalism and free markets while audiences struggle to keep a straight face.

[stybarrow]

the electricity grid needs to be expanded / upgraded on a massive scale. some areas of the country are not wind prone on regular basis. it is hard to move electricity long distances over utility lines.

[MensaMeme]

Screw the windless!

LOL. Just a joke.

[FamilyValuesFirst]

Where will we build the hazardous "lead-fills" to house all these cars when they die? We will have to train all medical personel dealng with accidents how to deal with electrical and acid injuries. That would be a nice family photo after a minivan flips upside down. Have they done impact tests on these? Where is the batteries going to be? Almost like the Global freaks telling us that the oceans are rising but the great lakes are drying up . 300 yrs ago it was rising, was it emissions fault too?

[duck24x]

Someone whose YouTube handle is "FamilyValuesFirst" has NO right to form an opinion about ANYthing. "Family values" extremists are the BIGGEST haters of families. They fully support families being demolished by poverty, by unlimited corporate welfare & CEO salaries, by pollution & unsafe work conditions, & by invasive bullshit anti-homosexual laws which seek to control & dominate people's private behavior, instead of stopping behavior that really affects others, such as GW or eating meat.

[Keeban3]

Family guy has made me hate it soo much whhen people stretch the h's like whhen he says whheels

[AlexanderAmbard]

cool hhwip

[jazzjackrabbits]

hwo dware you mwake fwun of mwe

[fossilman2]

heard a bbc announcer actually pronounce the 'h' in hour....a screamer to my ears :-))

[MyBabyReads]

Lovin' Lovins

[laurasIs2c]

The major elephant in the room is the fact that the USA is an OPEC nation and therefore our corporations are co conspirators in the fixing of production and pricing.

Working with the same companies who haven't been part of the sustainability discussion at this point is working with a junky, who senses you have the junk he wants.

Also check out the University of Delaware automobiles that work to be part of electrical grid and move 120 miles at a speed of 90, charge in 2.5 hours.

[fossilman2]

batteries , batteries , batteries....not likely to scale up to keep Riverside, California humming. New battery technology is in the works, but by no means has it arrived. see: (here on ytube) 'My PC is on Fire'. With the privatization of large parts of the electrical grid came decades of maintenance deferral to save money. That lack of investment in maintenance and a razor thin spare capacity will confound using electrical energy for general transport. The grid itself is hungry for fuel.

[keserak]

@laurasIs2c

The U.S. is not a member of OPEC. That being said, the interests of the former government and the latter organization are more closely aligned to each other than they are to the citizens under the control of either group, but still, the aforementioned fact remains.

[jm64d]

Who the hell BURPED at 6:57....LMAO

[FamilyValuesFirst]

What people don't understand is nobody asks the important questions to this bozo like, why, We have cars that run on propane, natural gas now and petroleum? Why don't we let companies drill more? Why not make nuclear powered cars since over 200 ships in our navel fleet are powered by them since 1958 and have had no problems? Or tell him this is impossible because the cost of the materials! I bet everyone thinks this guy is smarter than all the research departments at all the car manufacturers!

[Paulginz]

Gas is dangerous (a minor leak or high speed car crash --> explosion).

Petroleum is heavy and full of crap. Refineries exist for a reason you know.

Even if there were no restriction at all on drilling in the US, that wouldn't matter. There's just not that much easily extractable oil. Also, the US has passed peak production decades ago.

Nuclear reactors are big and heavy. Also, good luck convincing public opinion that nuclear powered cars are safe.

[magmaarock]

The problem isn't a lack of fuel, it's the end of cheap oil...

We can't live the way we do on biofuels, nuclear, natural gas, or tar sands.

[laurasIs2c]

The research you refer to is most likely generated from the companies that stand to maintain their communities of stock holders and employees. That kind of situation breeds analysis that defends its continued methods.

There are plenty of less dangerous energies the best of which is demonstrated by Mike Strizki you can look up his work on YOUtube.

Also there are yet undetermined ways of developing kinetic energy through small EMF fields propelled by wind.

Nuc. +Oil= more disability claims.

[dzjad]

lol. Thanks! Now we all know you are ignorant.

[FFridge]

> but there isn't enough carbon fibre to mass manufacture light vehicles

There will be quite a lot carbon fibre once Toyota and Toray build their plant. Of course, if these companies can build a plant, any one else can.

[FamilyValuesFirst]

I am curious on the projected distance after launch caused by collision with older vehicles? 100-300 feet?

[Paulginz]

Projected distance doesn't really matter unless you fall off a bridge or something.

What makes accidents dangerous is exceedingly high deceleration.

Even if you get projected up in the air, you can't fall harder than the initial impact.

Actually, friction with air will probably absorb some of the energy.

(Note: the direction you hit things also matters, as does rotation.... this needs more study and crash tests, I'm just giving a first-glance analysis)

[FamilyValuesFirst]

Let me break it down for you, the distance won't really matter when a Cadillac Eldorado hits one of these things at any speed, decelaration, acceleration, or if its stopped, Also unless these cars weigh the same as today, what exactly will keep them on the road at 65 mph or will we all have to slow down? If only these cars slow down then again they will be death traps.

[Paulginz]

You don't need the car to be heavy if the aerodynamics are designed well.

Take for example formula 1 cars. They are extremely lightweight, but they don't fly away or lose grip because they have those wing-like things on the front and back (what are they called?).

Actually, there is a safety problem with a lightweight car: when momentum is transfered from a heavyer car, you'll accelerate faster. If you get hit on the side, for example that's a big problem because your neck might snap.

[Camerano616]

BRILLIANT!

[mrmultidextrous]

This guy has some good ideas about efficiency - but there isn't enough carbon fibre to mass manufacture light vehicles, I'm not sure how fatigue resistant cf is, and there isn't enough cellulosic ethanol or natural gas to fuel a significant number of vehicles. Definitely need to get vehicle weight down though.

[cxpage]

The key is we don't to do without!

We just have to substute renewable energy for oil.

[Daharen]

Annoying thing is the people can't do anything until the auto makers and oil companies stop buying the Patents for all the new energy saving technology coming out... Or until the automakers start selling fuel efficient cars at prices their actually worth instead of gouging their customers because of demand... Corporations are corrupt, they will kill America, and the thing is everything to save America is available to America, but we don't have the ability to take the steps only the corps do...

[howlinhusky]

you can do something about it.. you're a consumer, you are the very person who can make change... buy more responsibly.

[argh523]

exactly. the money is your ballot paper.

[duck24x]

We do. Only so much consumers can do.

It's all the subhuman fuckheads who vote Demopub & Republicrat - that vote for Bush, Reagan, Clinton, Gore, Obama,

when they could have and should have voted for Nader or McKinney - that need to be exterminated.

Like the military-loving public says: "don't blame the soldiers or police". Then, don't blame the activists - those who do or try to do what they can - for the faults of the corporate-consumer extremists.

[Deathridesahorse2]

They are shocking statistics around the 9:20 mark. I might have failed mechanical engineering but, sheesh, somehow I feel like I'm not alone!

[xilliah]

Yes I don't understand why cars are such big heavy machines either, while they most often only transport people. I will only buy a car that makes sense for me.

[NguyenThiKhiem]

fuck you you stupid wanker

[krist300]

this sheeeit is going to be getting alot more attention in the next year. oil over $200 a barrel is going to scare alot of people.

[harryogre]

Sadly, this presentation is from 2005 when oil was about $40-$45 a barrel.

Now its over $130 a barrel and we are very little closer to doing what he is saying.

[abram730]

Thank you TEDtalks.

I had an Idea. If America created a modular and extremely strong modular tunnel system that could handle a vacuum... we could create a system for a tunnel train that in the absence of wind resistance could travel at any speed.. IE NY to LA counted in minuets not hours. The only big speed limiters would be G's and the curvature of the Earth. Interesting idea and doable.

A great marketing item would be that people would age slower on the train.

[kev3d]

Except that a 1 Inch long section of a 10 foot wide pipe would have exerted upon it 5,538 pounds at sea level. A ten foot section would have 332 tons of pressure on it. If there was a leak in the train itself, it would explosively decompress. If the tube did not collapse under the tremendous stress, a leak would render the tube useless, or lethal of the train hit a pocket of air.

[abram730]

The space shuttle handles the the internal pressure just fine and using traditional materials. Materials I'd be thinking in terms of would be carbon fiber and carbon nanotubes... Each section would determine it's stress and replacement, air pressure and ensure that it was aligned. Air leaks and structural fatigue would not be something to take lightly though.

[SirMildredPierce]

unfortunately the cost of running the pumps to create a constant vacuum, I suspect, would negate the cost savings and then some.

[shsnawada]

FINALLY! They have Lovins at TED. I've been reading "winning the oil endgame" recently and its changed my view/approach on engineering. Also, google video the 5 energy efficiency lectures if youre interested and lazy.

[Aegialeus]

What about GM's EV1?

[Fred121212]

..and car manufacturers talk about aerodynamics. pfft.

[frankodelic]

Amory... YOU ROCK!!!

[bgny]

Sounds like a plan.

[benjis007]

i would like to know how we mine our carbon for such carbon composite materials?

How much oil does it take to make carbon composites?

[Aegialeus]

benjis007

It doesn't matter, they can be recycled to be used in your next car. Where as fuel burned is non-retreivable. Mercedes is working on a recycling program where the whole car can be recycled, and carbon composites are heavly incomperated in building them.

It's like returnable beer bottles, you get a refund on your next auto.

[kurtilein3]

just 3 stars, because he completely forgot the easiest method to make cars more effective: put taxes on gasoline and oil, lots of taxes. and dont put taxes on organic fuel and sustainable alternatives.

very simple, and has a huge effect. i really dont understand why he didnt even mention it.

[my15minutes]

kurt - because he's a scientist, not an economist.

[FTLNewsFeed]

The government IS already doing this, but when gas is $4+ a gallon, further tax hikes aren't really going to fly with the electorate.

[kurtilein3]

i think the problem is that taxes on petrol dont work together with the cars your american companies like to sell ;) they need so much fuel, there is only one place where you can sell them: the usa. you need to decide for a sustainable future, or for the car companies. and your gouvernment stays with the car companies and blocks/slows global solutions on an international level, using veto-rights and threats.

[freebaker]

wouldn't higher taxes mostly hurt the public? punishing the people for not having any real choices of efficiency wouldn't make sense. most of the public doesn't know any better anyway, or doesn't care, so it's up to the car companies to do the right thing. i'm getting myself a bicycle motor.

[kurtilein3]

the car companies have no reason to do the right thing as long as fuel is so cheap in the USA ;)

but if all customers buy cars that help to save fuel out of their own interest, because fuel is expensive, then the car companies have to make a simple choice: adapt or disappear. i guess they will adapt and progress.

[BayerLexan]

A much better solution would be for the our government to stop using tax money to directly and indirectly suport oil companies. We spend an enormous amount at providing safety and infrastructure maintance for oil companies to take advantage of, thus keeping the true consumer price of gas hidden from direct sight at the gas station.

[unclesallty]

Making the people suffer for the greed of Gov and industry doesn't sound "easy" to me. And just who do you propose to enforce this punishment on the people - the Gov? LOL! Must be your inert German thinking or a total lack there of. Doesn't sound very "bright" to me.

[duck24x]

Good idea. But, you need to hit the better target: tax - no, better - kill - all Demopubs & Republicrats: anyone who voted for Obama, Bush(s), Reagan, Clinton, Gore. They are absolutely no better than serial killers in prison, but killers in prison suffer, and I feel sorry for them. Demopublicans PRETEND they "don't know what they're doing" each and every year at the voting booth - for 234 years?!! Yeeeeeeeeaaah.. riiiiiiiight.

Well, if I got a gun & blew them all away,

[duck24x]

.. I would then rightfully claim *I* didn't know that there were any negative consequences of high-velocity bullets hitting them.

I would let EVERY body out of prison if I could if it meant annihilating some Demopublicans.

[DeletedDelusion]

Awesome.

[reivilo]

damn he is making point after point... please for the love of god let us get on his ladder!