Re: Bakken: The Biggest Oil Find in U.S. History

[NeverShoutCharley]

I highly doubt that our lifestyle or economy will "diminish" as you say, because from what I know (and like you, Im going off tidbits i hear - the government is being very hush-hush about this) our government - while it may be able to supply most, if not all of our own oil - has agreed to continue trading and buying from other countries. Also, even if we are able to extract all of the available oil, they have found that it is NOT a fossil fuel that cant be recovered, but a bacteria. it reproduce

[zthustra]

@NeverShoutCharley

During WWI and WWII the government recognized the need for people to conserve and put the mass media to work educating the public. That is what is needed now. Jimmy Carter tried to do it. The money machine wants to keep making money until the very last drop has been extracted. Yes, we can make oil, but we can't make cheap and abundant oil. Thanks for commenting.

[NeverShoutCharley]

@zthustra Im not sure I follow you. Are you saying that the government should allow the media to tell the public of the oil? Because if thats the case, it will be the Industrial Revolution epidemic all over again. Everyone will rush up there in hopes for jobs, and there wont be places for them to stay. The Bakken area is a virtural ghost town. Also, oil extraction would be fairly cheap once the shale has been penetrated. That's the main problem, in my opinion. Stop me if im misunderstanding...

[zthustra]

@NeverShoutCharley

I think the government needs to use the media to tell the public to conserve energy and reduce material consumption. We need to reduce consumption dramatically to buy time to develop other energy options and extend the useful life of materials for future generations. As it is, the word is that we should just consume until we drop and we are robbing our future to live an excessive present.

[NeverShoutCharley]

@zthustra Agreed completely. And these things should go farther then the media; it should go straight to the the government. Its what influences society more so then the media. If its made law, then people wont have a choice. If they're given the choice,they'll pick the easiest route with the most money as you say. Like on those poor ASPCA commercials, yeah people will feel sorry for those cute little animals, but how many people actually try to do something about it? Same concept there.

[mike184ever1]

I THINK the next biggest oil find is another 30yrs away back in Saudi , so drive on exploit and create but dont forget to control the price of oil in US dollars and dont forget that US is the largest exporter of REFINED OIL ie gasoline and it controls the spec price of GAS and simple economics says "how much expendable cash will buyers pay for gas"

[dbporter]

babbling

[ZeekWolfe1]

4 billion barrels...I'm afraid this man is off by a factor of 100, maybe more.

[zthustra]

@ZeekWolfe1

From USGS Newsroom, released 4/10/2008:

Headline

3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montanas Bakken Formation ...

First line

Reston, VA - North Dakota and Montana have an estimated 3.0 to 4.3 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil in an area known as the Bakken Formation.

Do you have a better source of information than the US Geological Survey?

[DorthNakotan]

You know who could extract 5 billion barrels from the Bakken Formation?

Chuck Norris - thats who.

[zthustra]

@DorthNakotan

For a second I thought you were going to suggest that the Creator could do it (feel free to insert your favorite version of the Creator).

I've been asking Creation Scientists to work that one out and get busy creating us some oil. But they don't seem to be making any progress on it. I think they got stuck on the definition of "kind" and haven't been able to move forward on more substantive discoveries.

[lordjared]

I can't walk 44 miles a day to work. The point you seem to miss is that you SUPPLEMENT U.S. oil consumption with this find. Alaska and the GULF will round out the total sum. I guess it's all right with you if we are paying 7.00 a gallon for gas?

You seem to have another agenda to be pissing on this substantial find.

[zthustra]

@lordjared

You have missed the point of this video. I am grateful for the oil beign produced in the Bakkens and the technology that brought them back to life. I like cheep energy and I don't want it to stop. The point is that if makes no sense to pretend that the Bakkens are the next Saudi Arabia or that cheep, abundant, high quality oil is in our future. We must begin now investing in our real, future with fewer energy and mineral resources and a population in overshoot.

[4aSteadyStateEconomy]

@zthustra, You are dead right about the population problem. We have no demand benchmark, only mindless growth on a finite planet. People refuse to run the numbers, and many think a supernatural power won't let us get energy-poor. They have no way to prove that fantasy but they infuse it into public science policy.

P.S. Birds cheEp.

[4aSteadyStateEconomy]

@lordjared, the U.S. can burn well over 7 billion barrels of oil per year, so shale is a very weak supplement, especially for the amount of land ravaged and water wasted. It's a "substantial find" only in a small context. The flow rate of those 4.3 billion barrels will be a trickle over time.

Discoveries like "Multiple Exciton Generation" (super efficient solar cells) are what gives me some optimism. People clinging to fossil fuels as our savior are wasting valuable time.

[Bozonez3m]

This guys a dipshit !

[zthustra]

@Bozonez3m

That was a very constructive argument! I wonder if geologists could use that argument to expand the calculated technical recoverable oil reserves from the Bakken formation?

[MsZeitgeist85]

4.3 Billion barrles. Wow sounds like alot.

Untill you realize the USA uses that much ever 205 days.

[tradrmick]

Actually, with technology improving daily the Bakken will produce a tremendous amount of oil and estimates are being raised not lowered. However, I do agree in the long run things need to change. It's ridiculous how much oil we waste.

[zthustra]

@tradrmick

Yupper dupper! The technology is being well deployed and is bringing up a lot of oil. More oil than they have capacity to transport.

It's not Saudi Arabia! They will ultimately recover about 4.3 billion bls of good, light, sweet crude oil. The faster they bring it up, the faster it will run out. If Mr Spock, Mr. Scott and all the scientists and engineers at Starfleet worked together on this one, they still couldn't sqeeze 500 billion bls of oil out of the Bakkens.

[SmellyJunkie]

At the very least it will create much needed jobs.

[zthustra]

@SmellyJunkie

Jobs and oil! I think some people miss my point in this video and other things I have posted. I'm glad that technology is bringing new life to the Bakken fields and reducing on dependence on imports. The Bakken play is nothing to sneeze at ... it just isn't Saudi Arabia all over again. We've been there for SIXTY years now and if it was another Saudi Arabia the U.S. would be swimming in oil.

[DrHogfan]

I've always thought that environmentalists were "poor mouthing" the amount of oil in ANWR . I think they are scared to death that there is a huge amount of oil up there. I just think they "doth protest way too much". How do you know that the amount is finite? How do you know that oil is not being produced continually? Maybe the decompostion of things other than dinosaurs produces oil as well. just askin!

[zthustra]

@DrHogfan

I report on what is being said by the USGS. They, not I, are the experts. I understand that some other experts who work for the petroleum industry have published more aggressive numbers. I'm ok with that, but I recognize they might be biased.

As I understand it, crude oil is being continuously produced from source rock. It has taken millions of years to produce the oil that has been removed. I'm not thinking we want to wait millions of years for the next batch to finish.

[zthustra]

@DrHogfan

The recent improvement in extraction in the Bakken is due to horizontal drill and frac technology. It is expensive, the well production goes up fast, then it goes down fast, and then they have to drill another one. There is little or no infrastructure in place to transport the oil from the Bakkens to refineries so increased production capacity does not equal increased oil delivery.

ANWR if/when developed will have high production costs and delivery problems too.

[zthustra]

@DrHogfan

I can't imagine we will let ANWR go undeveloped much longer. The mean estimate for recoverable oil is 10.3 billion barrels. Costs for production will be high because of location, not technology. New pipelines will be needed. The Prudue Bay delivery was severly restricted because of limits imposed by pipelines. Maintenance of pipelines has been a bigger problem than expected.

Still, ANWR oil will be cheaper than Bakken Oil or deep sea oil.

[zthustra]

@DrHogfan

This is all SWAG, but ANWR should produce 500 thousand to 1.5 million barrels per day for some 25 to 30 years and make a small dent in our 15 million barrel per day apatite for oil. It will also produce natural gas. Bakken will not do as well.

Peak world crude oil production is now behind us. The peak year was 2005 and the peak month was August 2008. Bakken and ANWR will help, but they will not alter the downward trend significantly.

[zthustra]

@DrHogfan

Finally, abiogenic oil. The oil we are extracting now is NOT abiogenic. If abiogenic oil exists, and it may, it is NOT currently providing us with massive quantities of cheap, high quality oil to meet our energy demands. Scientists did not understand oil very well some 50 years ago, today they understand it very well.

The abiogenic oil crowd is as likely to solve our future need for oil as the creation science crowd is. There is no known subsitute for biogenic crude oil.

[benjaminlately]

Another update: Recent estimates by the operators in the basin are saying production could be between 10- 20 bbl for the Bakken/Threeforks play. The plan is to try to get to 1 million b/d production, but new pipelines will be needed for that. The Tyler Formation is next on the list and it looks to be about 1/3 the size of the Bakken, but still significant.

[GammaMan800]

I think its time you do some more research on the so called hype. Its real and im living it. Williston north dakota can produce enough jobs just not the housing.

[zthustra]

@GammaMan800

The report two years ago was that the Bakken oil play was eight times Saudi Arabia. Bakken recently produced 341,384 barrels per day meeting an impressive 5% of domestic demand. Compare that to imports from Saudi Arabia of 1,135,500 barrels per day on average, providing us with 16.8% of our oil. Saudi Arabia produces over 10 million barrels per day or 30.5 times as much as the Bakken. Bakken produces about the same amount of oil as Equatorial Guinea or Vietnam.

[benjaminlately]

Back for a short update. I attended the Williston Basin Petroleum Conference this spring, and the consensus is basically that the USGS estimates will be on the low side.

One thing to keep in mind is that the USGS pays less than 80,000 a year even for their high end jobs. Oil companies pay geologist and geologic engineers 120,000 or so for a base. The oil companies have much better geologist and engineers working for them than the USGS. People put too much faith in our government.

[zthustra]

@benjaminlately

Even though I'm not a petroleum professional, I would never disagree with a professional who suggested that USGS estimates were low. From what I have read ultimate recovery is almost always higher than estimates and sometimes dramatically higher. My argument has always been with the suggestion that Bakken is the next Saudi Arabia with 500 billion plus barrels just screaming to meet our demand for oil. Or that shale to oil conversion was going to save us. Thank for the update.

[DrMotorDude]

"4.3 billion barrels...."

The official numbers from the USGS are actually 503 billion barrels.

[zthustra]

@DrMotorDude

From USGS Newsroom, released 4/10/2008:

Headline

3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montanas Bakken Formation ...

First line

Reston, VA - North Dakota and Montana have an estimated 3.0 to 4.3 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil in an area known as the Bakken Formation.

From my video:

First line:

4.3 billion barrels of undiscovered oil Technically available in the Bakken formation ...

[zthustra]

@DrMotorDude

I'm sure any confusion about the actual amount of oil estimated to be technically available can be cleared up by visiting Snopes and searching Bakken Formation.

[DrMotorDude]

@zthustra Snopes is not the USGS or US Department of Energy....so.....I'm going with the numbers from the scientists who do that sort of thing for a living. USGS: "recoverable 503 billion bbl."

"Six moths worth of oil..." also assumes ALL OTHER sources completely stop at the same time Bakken formation increases productivity (yes, it is producing right now.) "Geologic experts" WROTE the USGS report(s) - which 'experts' you mention disagree with their own reports?

[zthustra]

@DrMotorDude

This is worse than arguing with a faith-based believer!

Scroll up and read the source for the 4.3 billion barrels in TECHNICALLY RECOVERABLE oil ... it is the USGS!

Duh!

The source for information at Snopes is ... that's right, the USGS!

Duh again!

I only posted the suggestion to visit Snopes so that readers would know that it wasn't just me visiting the USGS and reading 4.3 billion barrels of TECHNICALLY RECOVERABLE oil.

[zthustra]

@DrMotorDude

Try this one. Visit Fact Check and search Bakken Formation.

Try reading some of this as if it was possible that the 503 billion barrel number is wrong.

[DrMotorDude]

@zthustra I won't waste my accountant's time by publicly listing her number but I'll tell what is already public.

In 1997 I invested in a fractional ownership of a well (just one) in northwestern ND. It has consistently produced above 700 bbl per day. We are not even CLOSE to needing fracing (short for fracturing) or steam injection. I'm 41 years old and I AM a scientist, NOT USGS (with a few college degrees) and your 3.6 billion number is WHAT HAS ALREADY BEEN EXTRACTED, not what remains.

[zthustra]

@DrMotorDude

A few hours ago the only acceptable source was the USGS, now they aren't acceptable either.

You are a 41 year old scientist and I am a 49 year old scientist. But then your science credentials are probably much better than mine.

I guess the biggest difference between us is that I don't have any personal facts of my own; all I have is the ones provided by the USGS and a few other sources I look at.

Until I get my own crystal ball, the USGS will have to do.

[zthustra]

According to my sources, the 2008 estimate of all technically recoverable crude oil resources in the United States, not including Bakken oil resources, was 174.67 billion barrels. Bakken added 3.65 billion barrels to the total and was roughly 2% of all proved domestic reserves.

US oil consumption in 2008 was equivalent to 17.8 million barrels per day. Bakken production in 2008 averaged about 118,000 barrels, or about 1.8% of US domestic production, and about 0.7% of US consumption.

[parasitesarefunny]

Global Warming, 9/11, Holocaust etc.. are all FEAR based LIES done by International Communist Jews.

Same is probably true for Peak Oil.

[DrMotorDude]

@parasitesarefunny Don't forget to include Y2K.

[dilbertgeg]

on top of that, PRICE is not about supply. Wm Engdahl est at $140 that 60% of price is energy futures speculation by traders, NOT caused by OPEC (tho they prolly participated in futures spec). "Paper Oil" drives up price by fake demand, not a sudden shortage or demand during Bush admin, but dereg of financial markets. Bush offered Saudis weapons and nuke tech! but they said they would not pump more. Why? The MARKET was not asking for more oil, no glut would counter NYNEX and London ICE.

[zthustra]

@dilbertgeg

1. I am concerned that a lot of commodities are "paper" only.

2. The demand is for light sweat crude. The Saudi's are correct when they say there is no demand for the sour crude which is the only stuff they could bring to market at a lower price.

3. When the available qty drops, price kils demand so that supply and demand are always equal. Saudis couldn't bring light sweet offshore crude to market until the price came up.

[benjaminlately]

Sorry, didn't mean to come down on you. I won't do a video response, and I won't be doing a blog post on the Bakken any time soon. The topic would be too close to ongoing projects at work. Maybe in a few months I'll post something. If I remember I'll send you anything we publish. The USGS really isn't the best source. The NDGS is better and the best might be Williston Basin Petroleum Conference abstracts.

[zthustra]

You are only the second person in two years at YouTube to take me off guard by posting a totally human and descent reply after a sharp exchange.

Thank you.

I have a love/hate relationship with this medium. It is so impersonal. Look for a PM soon.

[benjaminlately]

After reading your replies I take back my initial statement. You need to keep reading, and quit acting like you have the answers. As far as energy usage goes I agree with you, but don't talk about a topic you don't understand, and don't try to defend something you don't understand. Also, it is typically a bad idea to fight with people who comment on your videos.

(You'll have to hit "View all Comments" I wasn't just talking to myself)

[zthustra]

Hi benjaminlately, you are a young geologist just finishing school and I am an over-the-hill veteran of medical technology who tried to break into software just as the bubble burst and now I can't find meaningful work.

I guess people like me shouldn't read USGS reports when we see things in the news that seem unlikely? We should leave that to you? We certainly shouldn't tell others they are misrepresenting the facts from the report. You will do that for us.

Please post your video response.

[TTURedRaidr]

This video is stupid. Just another Libtard enviromental marxist who looks like one too.

[zthustra]

So well spoken! Can you do other tricks too? Like math? All that thinking is overrated! Just believe what ever the last person who said something optimisitc and hopeful told you and everything will work out in the end?

[calibaiyau]

bruce no offence but u r a dumbass

[bdist]

The reserve estimate in the Bakken formation has been stated to be around 400 billion barrels (USGS unofficial 2000 estimate).

But the USGS latest official update in 2008 states the recoverable amount of oil to be 3.65 billion barrels as you say.

That is a huge difference, and most deniers think all 400 billion barrels are recoverable. Wow are they in for a cold shower when they get the facts from their own state body instead of old hearsay...

[bdist]

Your comment is a bit late. :D

[zthustra]

I see! :-o

[kimxxxyyy]

Fracturing turns the ground water toxic!!!!!

No water No life!!! we must learn to live sustainably or go extinct

most of the dinosaurs had no predators they over populated the earth and now humans are doing the same with what was left of! ie the oil in my mind the oil age its a complete disaster!! most city's & towns are not made on a human scale ie walkable!!

[zthustra]

How dare you stand in the way of technology that could save humanity from oil deprivation? :-o

Isn't it remarkable how underreported the destruction of our precious and shrinking clean water supply is? The Baakens are situated in a place that already suffers because there isn't enough clean, fresh water, imagine the impact fracturing is having on the problem. And how much worse it would be if they went after the shale!

[gthorlak]

Sorry to tell you but the fracturing takes place about 10,000 feet below the surface. there is no drinking water at that depth and the fractures are limited to the producing oil formation which is about 15 feet thick. Theres zero danger tot he drinking water supply. This guy is a real dumbass...These wells are making thousands of barrels a day.

[zthustra]

I stand corrected. Water contamination due to hydraulic fracturing is associated with fracturing coal deposts for methane.

The water issue in the Bakkens, as I have read it, has more to do with scarcity of water and disposal of contaminated water.

Thank you for your thoughtful representation of me as a "dumbass". It helps the discussion a great deal when knowledgable people like yourself use the language of the gutter to make your point and belittle any opposition.

[gthorlak]

If you had actually grown up in and worked in the Oil industry for 30 years, you would know that "dumbass" is a mild poke, far removed from gutter language. What you hear daily in the field is far far worse. ( not condoning it, try not to use it.. just sayin....)

My advice to you would be to come work the Bakken and learn before you post. The water is disposed of in played out wells that are re-engineered for that purpose. Companies are working to find ways to recycle the frac water.

[zthustra]

I know how working people talk. I also know that you probably wouldn't tolerate being called a "dumbass" by anyone you didn't personally know, even if that is mild language for hard working people.

Has it occured to you that you don't have to work in the oil fields for 30 years to do the math? My video is about math and science.

Can you see the forest? Or, are the trees in the way?

Oh, my father retired from natural gas. I grew up around people who work in the industry.

Never assume!

[bruceok]

1. The Bakken is also in Saskatchewan -- missed in the opening.

2. What peak oil theory? We have a glut of natural gas and we keep finding more oil.

3. Peak oil theory is a reality only if we quit drilling.

[zthustra]

1. I guess the US Geological Service didn't include the Canadian oil that was technically available. Maybe that's because they are a US agency?

2. Makes you wonder why the US has been importing natural gas for the last 40 years with that so-called glut. And let's not forget that we keep finding more!

3. I guess US imports about two-thirds of our crude oil because we forgot how to drill?

Wake up, you are in denial. US oil production peaked in 1970. It isn't a theory, it is a fact.

[DrMotorDude]

Bartlett leaves out some critical factors.

1. Malthus's model works ONLY if the math is correctly applied. (K is not constant.)

2. We really do have less clean water than fuel, few people outside deserts realize this. We'll run out of reliable water first

3. Population drops = demand drops for resources (K moves)

King Hubbard's 'peak production' didn't count about 90% of the gulf of Mexico, not to mention Jack 1 & 2 fields there or Alberta oil sands or oceanic methane hydrate.

[biped19]

Just because their may be exploitable petroleum there does not mean we should use it. Oil is obsolete & the ICE has reached it's peak in efficiency. Will this buy us time? Sure, and may be a good excuse to drill for the short term. But for people to expect Bakken to solve our economic woes is dangerously delusional. Our economic problems have little to do with oil, and more to do with banks & corporations controlling this country for over century now.

[boswellchrome]

forget walking take a bike! i ride 30+ mi./week

[helegoed]

Ernie, stop being so negative, why do you chose to believe the negative people instead of the positive, besides like you said you are no expert.

Stop being such a negative nancy and say hi to Bert!

[zthustra]

Just curious, which positive people are you suggesting I shoud believe and what are they sayng that they actually support with anything more than their own opinion?

PS. Bert says, "Hi."

[carefulcarpenter]

Nice rant.

"Change" is a fear most will not face without resistance and denial. Denial fuels anger. A simpler lifestyle means more personal autonomy and freedom--here lies a real truth about "freedom-loving" people-- they fear freedom due to their denials.

[McConsumer]

how can someone talk about how much oil there is in an undiscovered well? I mean, wouldn't undiscovered mean practically unknown?

[zthustra]

Amen! Undiscovered oil seems to be the hope of the masses.

Of course experts CAN and DO talk about undiscovered oil because we have a long history of oil discoery to look back on with statistics, trends and data that can be used to predict future discoveries.

The trend is downward. Also there is less of the earth in which to discover more. And the period of time between discovery and extraction is quite long even when oil is discovered.

Thanks for the comment.

[benjaminlately]

It's all based on statistics. Which just happens to be the math that zthusra keeps talking about...

[coastnative]

ok, thanks for your opinion.

[aGlobalWarmingHOAX]

Biggest Oil Fields in the US are in Alaska........ Purdoe Bay Oil Fields........

[zthustra]

While Purdue Bay is currently the leading single oil producing field in the US, Alaska is ub second place after Texas. Texas has 25% of the proven oil reserves in the US and is the leading producer.

Both Alaska and Purdue Bay are "past peak". Alaskan oil production peaking in 1988 with just over 2 million bpd and now stands at less than half that number, roughly 760,000 bpd.

[DrMotorDude]

Actually, it's not Texas that's the leading producer in the USA, it's the Gulf of Mexico. The west Texas Permian basin DOES have lots of oil but the gulf provides about 40-45% of oil used in the US.

[benjaminlately]

Alaska could likely see a second peak if they drill farther offshore, and if they were allowed into the protected area. Both Montana and North Dakota are seeing second peaks because of the number of wells being drilled.

[Jacobrester]

There are an estimated 1.5 TRILLION barrels of known oil reserves in Utah, Coloarado and Wyoming.

It comes in the form of oil shale, which is low grade oil and is energy intensive to produce. However, technology will soon make it a viable oil resource. It is similar to the low grade oil we produce from the Alberta Oil Sands here in Canada.

Don't buy into the lie that the USA does not have oil. They may have more oil than any other country on earth.

[zthustra]

There are so many problems with this that I don't know where to start. First, read more about oil shale, oil shale extraction, oil shale economics and something called "Energy Returned on Energy Invested" (EROEI), and if you still have eyes, the environmental impact of shale oil industry.

I guess, I'll just suggest that technology will never may this a viable replacement for the cheap, high-quality crude oil we are used to.

[Jacobrester]

Yes I am very familiar with EROEI. And I am familiar with the environmental opposition to oil shale. However, our Alberta Oil Sands is the same low grade oil as the oil shale in the USA.

We do have environmentalists screaming at the top of their lungs, but so what. They scream sometimes to hear themselves.

It is my understanding that the technology has advanced tremendously for oil shale extraction, and it can POSSIBLY be done environmentally freindly.

[kingsman565]

"It is my understanding that the technology has advanced tremendously for oil shale extraction, and it can POSSIBLY be done environmentally freindly."

Your forgeting about world economic growth, once barrels start to go to $300 how is any business supposed to make a profit with transport costs & all petroleum products skyrocketing through the roof?

[Jacobrester]

I am no expert, just answering with a few detailed artticles I have on the oil shale possibility in the USA.

In order for Oil Shale to be productive financially, the price of oil must be around $70/barrel. Lets face it. This current low oil price level is only temporary.

Hell, at current price levels, our Alberta Oil Sands are not profitable.

It is my opinion, the oil shale is a last resort to the USA, however, the large majority of the rest of the world has nothing close in quantity.

[kingsman565]

"It is my opinion, the oil shale is a last resort to the USA, however, the large majority of the rest of the world has nothing close in quantity."

Exactly and when the rest of the world runs out american investment will be destroyed, there's no silver lining here all shale oil will be good for is makeing petroleum products I bet at very high prices. If anybodys reading this with an SUV you should think about trading it in for a horse.

[Jacobrester]

I disagree with you. The Alberta Oil Sands here in Canada is the exact same low quality oil as the shale in the USA. It is energy intensive but if oil rises in price, it can be quite profitable.

You sound rather hesitant to admit that the USA has such a vast quantity of oil.

Why is that ?

[kingsman565]

Well I sincerely hope your right & I'm wrong. We won't have long to find out in any case.

[kingsman565]

P.s. I relly think you don't see the whole picture when the price of everything goes up and we'er paying $300 a barrel or more economic growth is going down hill from there so you better start pumping that stuff up relly quick.

[Jacobrester]

The problem with oil shale, as well as oil sands, is it takes longer to produce. So it will only solve part of the demand problem.

There is a conception that the USA is short on natural resources. They are loaded. They have 25% of all coal reserves in the world. Although the environmentalists in the USA are fighting to stop coal to liquid processing.

If the USA is allowed to turn coal to liquid fuel and begin oil shale production, there situation would be improved, but not solved.

[kingsman565]

The economy needs to grow each year by 3% do you think the Bakken oil field will allow that to happen?

[benjaminlately]

You are discussing something totally different than what the Bakken is. The type of shale you are talking about is located in Utah and Colorado.

Energy return on Bakken oil is pretty good. (Other than all the dry holes)

[owlwatch2012]

The Bakken has been known for decades as you mentioned. New drilling techniques make it cheaper to drill so it's now profitable as you mentioned. The state of North Dakota seems to be regulating who gets a rig and who doesn't and how the money is divided.. That may not be legal and that's not something you mentioned.

[geargemartin]

man, i'm glad i don't live in your doom and gloom world. the bakkens may be a bust or it may be a boom. the answer is probably somewhere in the middle. the point is this. until sustainable and economically alternate energy is developed. all conventional energy sources must be exploited. not to acknowledge this would make one a true denier.

[mwwolf62]

The only reason oil is so high is that we are unable to drill do to environmental restrictions, set in place slowely over 30 years. The arabs realized that we had to pay our workers more and flooded the market with oil crashing the barrel of oil to 11 bucks a drum. We were put out of business. When the arabs realized we had our hands tied, they began to not meet the increase to drive the price up. Now were stuck and either drill or pay 4-8 a gallon of gas. You don't need math to figure the will.

[zthustra]

I guess that if math isn't your strong card a conspiracy theory is much better. Is the Energy Information Agency in on this conspiracy? Personally, I prefer had numbers like proven reserves, domestic production and imports over supposition.

Of course we don't import the majority of our oil from the Saudis ... oops, the conspiracy begins to crumble ... and most of the untapped oil fields are not restricted by environmental protection laws ... another crack ... and the Saudis are past peak too!

[mwwolf62]

If America wants to drill their way out of oil imports, we could. We would have enough to run our country for 60-100 years +. We could then spend the saved money to harness the energy that is all around us.

[zthustra]

Let's do some math. The US extracted about 9.5 million barrels per day at our peak oil production in 1970. We currently extract about 5 MBPD and import about 10 MBPD. To meet domestic demand by drilling at home, we would need to TRIPLE current extraction rates to a level 50% higher than peak extraction in 1970.

Does that seem reasonable or likely to anyone?

[zthustra]

Let's pretend it can be done? How long would it last? The US has about 20 billion barrels in proved reserves. At current consumption rates, all proved reserves would be consumed in about 3 years and 7 months. There may actually be two or three times as much oil out there, so maybe, in fantasyland, we could keep extracting for 10 years or more before it was all gone.

Can someone else do better math than me?

[zthustra]

We knew about peak oil in the early 1970s and have had 25 years to move away from oil to other energy source. Not just 25 years, but 25 years of robust economy with cheap energy. We didn't do anything earth shattering in that 25 years, what makes anyone think that another 10 years of cheap oil would be any different?

[DrMotorDude]

Mwwolf, you are on the right track BUT if we include gas and coal, the USA has enough fuel for the next 400 years. The Germans ran WWII on coal gasification - see Fischer-Tropsch process. In 1930-1940s methods and technologies, it was inefficient. Today that's a different story. MOST organic chem. reactions were invented/discovered AFTER that time.

[zthustra]

I recently read about tractors from WWII that ran on solid fuels like biomass by using gasification. The CO and the H2 both burn clean, the remaining hydrocarbons are a bit like crude oil.

That's probably a bit of an oversimplification, but the technology has been around a long time.

One problem is coal. I don't want to go to deep but 400 years might be a bit of an optimistic assessment. Watch Dr. Albert A. Bartlett's Arithmetic, Population and Energy lecture.

[DrMotorDude]

Truth of the matter is fuel from coal was never an issue for Germany, because for practical purposes, you can turn coal into any hydrocarbon you want. If you consider KNOWN oil, coal and gas deposits we already know of in the USA (not factoring the rest of the world) 400 years is conservative. Recall as Bill Clinton left office he made the world's largest know hydrocarbon deposit a "national park" in the south west, after lobbying from Indonesia.

[dwalker2006]

These comments are highly misleading. First, let me state that I am a petroleum geologist. Nobody is suggesting that the Bakken by itself will save us. 'Oil Doomsdayers' always limit their analysis to a single play and then focus on how it is only some small percent of consumption. All plays are just a small percent of consumption when analyzed individually.

How many shales similar to the Bakken are out there? Many.

[zthustra]

Some people are suggesting that the Bakken by itself will save us, that is why I made this video. Some people are acting like the Bakken is some kind of new discovery that will replace the Middle East. I know that those people are not you but their suggestion got major media coverage and the "deniers" have latched onto it. I expect the shales and technology to collectively make their positive contribution but the contribution must be somehow put in perspective with overall consumption. Thanks.

[scientastic]

List all the shales similar to Bakken.

[176807]

I'd like to know where he gets his figures. They are highly inaccurate. I'm from Williston, ND and am in the middle of the oil activity. There is about 500 billion barrels of oil, and 4.3 billion is recoverable with current technology.  Zenergy is leading the way by developing new technology. By simply turning off their pumps for a few hours to allow time for the oil to seep from the rocks, they see a dramatic increase in production.

[zthustra]

Thank you so much. My figures are from the U.S. Geological Service. 4.3 billion barrels that can be recovered. The other oil, however many billions of barrels there are, might as well be on the planet Neptune. When the planet earth passes its peak of production in just a few years, it will still be unavailable to us Homo sapiens living on the surface. This is what peak oil theory is all about, it doesn't matter how much oil, gas or coal exists on the planet earth. How much is available? Now!

[BryceandChristian]

Yea i live in Killdeer ND I too am in oil activity. My family has 4 oil wells and when they turn off the pumps here and they shoot up to an average of 200-250 barrels a day.

[newtlover18]

He is very deceptive. He gives us the idea that the field will last a few months. This is only possible if the U.S. would drink up exclusively from the Bakken. Also he failed to mention that up to 200 - 300 billion of barrels are potentially locked up in the Bakken, this is 4 times more than what is in Saudi Arabia's largest oil field (Ghawar field.

[zthustra]

The U.S. Geological Service's official statement indicates that 4.3 billion barrels, 3.65 billion barrels remaining unextracted, not 200-300 billion, may be "technically" available to extract. Also, I was VERY clear that it may take 20 or more years to extract that oil, providing six months demand spread out over about 20 years or about 2.5% of demand annually.

I think someone might be in denial.

[majimay]

Gee wiz, with the increase to over $125 bbl of oil, a complete seismic survey using the latest High Tech (Sercel-428) equipment will produce 3-D maps showing exactly where to drill.

[yogiudo]

great vid!

[VFLOH]

I have a dream!

Solar Panels on EVERY rooftop

and maybe a wind power station for not so sunny days

Maybe then we could use Oil only for producing things instead of burning it

[iguanodectes]

May be the most boring commentary/video I have EVER listened to/seen. Please don't make any more.

[zthustra]

Thanks for enduring me long enough to provide candid feedback. Sometimes I watch my own videos and I wish I knew how to make the message more interesting and fun to watch. I envy a lot of the people I subscribe to for their communication skills.

Just the same, I think there is a place for people like me that are learning how here at YouTube. I look forward to seeing YOUR videos. ***I noticed you haven't posted any yet.*** You might discover how much more difficult it is than you think.

[abuggymom1]

I still hold hope for the Bakken play cuz oilmen have attained gas leases at 100$ an acre and more across 3 states... is it just hype?

[abuggymom1]

I normally don't watch videos over 10 min long (busy mom that I am) but your opinions of this oil boom being hype had me watching! Of course with the price of gas going up as we speak... We all wish it was that simple to grow our own food, walk and ride bikes, and hold a union job with in walkin distance from our comfortable suburbia homes where drivebye shootings are never heard. So please go ride your bike in the snow and make a video... that would be humor in the highest!

[rj77nz]

Just in.... new est 400 BILLION BARRELS in the Bakken field. Problem solved.

[kurtilein3]

absolutely genious!

there are some great solutions to peak oil, some villages in germany are already completely independent from outside energy. they use fermentation of organic waste to produce heat and electricity, use solar panels and heat storage, and then they farm for small quantities of organic fuel for vehicles.

thats it. completely independent from outside energy, and still producing tons of food. this is the technology that gives hope, not some advanced drilling technique.

[kurtilein3]

oh, and... those villages are not cheating, they dont need to import fertilizers or other stuff. those villages just export food and even energy, they sell energy to the grid.

some of them financed it privately, with every citizen investing a sum of money, and by now they are making profit. for the most successful ones the investment started paying back after just 3-5 years. the crap of farm animals doesnt smell anymore after it is processed, they put it on their fields as a fertilizer.

[gonjamon99]

Often the deniers deny the fact that fossil fuels are fossils.