One more comment (sorry for my english): okay, you really like the idea that intelligent machines will become the masters of this planet ( this galaxy etc...) pretty soon and you fervently emphasize your wish that these machines won't have anything in common with human beings. Some might qualify this as an altruistic dream of absolute power. It certainly gives me the impression that your mind is perpetually oscillating between self-hatred and an stockholm-syndrome.
There is also a long history of eschatological salvation expectations (Naherwartungen) -
many of them resulting gruesome desasters.
And the enthusiastic notions about the ''technological singularity'' are, in my opinion, an actual example for this phenomenon.
I think there’s a good chance that the ''technological singularity'' (as unstoppable as it might be ) simply leads to an existence of INFINITE boredom and desperation.
You said in the video that resources on the planet are abundant. Are they?... Just listen to what Richard Heinberg, here on YouTube, has to say about "peak everything", including "peak oil". Maybe you can make a video about it. I would love to know your opinion on the subject... Have a a nice day.
Most of us die alone as the world lives on after us. In an apocalypse the experience is shared. The idea of all of us being connected through our last experience on Earth is a powerful one. That in itself is enough to propagate doom fantasies, with honest belief in the scenarios actually occurring not being necessary.
Doom and Millenarianism are fears of the unknown. It's science and religions' alternative to whistling in the dark.
By the way, doom does not mean the end of everything it means judgement. So be prepared to meet thy doom. If there's anyone left to judge, they can have the last word.
Humans are NOT a "spectacularly successful species", unless you define "success" as destruction, mass murder, deception, starvation, ressource depletion, mass extinction, which would make you a rather weird guy.
People are generally more interested in Paris Hilton's pants than in the War against Iran (WW III), surveillance, false flag terrorism or peak oil.
You attack the supposed psychology of warnings while ignoring their content.
You didn't talk about penetration, you talked about success. And that is at best narrowminded and inaccurate when talking about destruction, mass murder, deception, starvation, ressource depletion, mass extinction.
Wow, tmtyler still didn't correct his mistakes. Obviously he is immune to rational thought and maintains debunked falsehoods and fallacies because of his overblown ego. Now let me show you some more ways in which you're wrong (except the sleight of hands):
2. A lot of doom-sayer HAVE been right in the past, as whole cities, regions, even civilizations have already gone down in catastrophe (->history book).
3. You completely ignore the selection bias of your claims.
@trakkaton Uh, I was talking about THE END OF THE WORLD. I don't object to people proclaiming DOOM as a Tsunami rushes towards them. For selection bias see 1:42. What "all-or-nothing fallacy"? P.S. Please clean up your act - your criticisms here and elsewhere are of appalling quality, and are laced with pointless ad hominen attacks.
- The end of the world is always only the end of the respective horizon of the people in question. The universe, Mars or Australia are irrelevant regarding Doom of the Maya civilization.
- To call the Cuban Missile Crises "a very very long way from the end of the world" is ridiculous. The close encounter with nuclear warfare is as close to the end of the world as one can be.
- It is irrelevant whether you mentioned selection bias, it is relevant that you don't understand it.
Your conclusion that something didn't happen in this universe at this point in time and therefore it is unlikely to happen is as pointless as claiming "nuclear stand-offs never result in nuclear warfare". If you got hit by lightning and survived it that doesn't make lightning non-lethal. What's so difficult to understand?
- Your all-or-nothing-fallacy is that you don't accept any outcome to be regarded as end of the world if anything is left.
Incorrect. Almost every claim you present uses selection bias. Ignoring the sleight of hands (a criticism you have - again - ignored so far) it is selction bias to use the alleged "success" of the human species to calculate the probability of doom. Ignoring your ahistorical view (humans have been reduced to about 3000 individuals in a past armageddon), it is selection bias to use the alleged absence of armageddon to calculate its probability. Cuban missile crisis. Doomsday clock. Etc.
If you don't understand the meaning of the word "ad hominem attack" then refrain from using the term. "Ad hominem" means to attack someone as an substitute for an argument, NOT to speculate why someone refuses to correct his position once they are debunked.
P.S.: Please clean up your act. Your claims here and elsewhere are of appalling quality. Ignoring that your positions have been debunked does not make them better. It's irrational, unscientific and autistic.
Learn to read. Really. Or, to be more specific: Learn to READ what other people WROTE instead of thinking around while reading. And then RESPOND to what they ACTUALLY WROTE. Because you AGAIN ignored COMPLETELY what I wrote to present another UNRELATED and UNCHANGED REPETITION of your initial claim. And this kind of monologue simply IS annoying!
@trakkaton- The reasons being are that the ones who are corrupt and "evil" among us, have taken control, by crook, or pretty much everything! Not all human beings are evil. If you honestly believe this, how highly do you even hold yourself? Do I honestly need to continue?
I'm not making the generalization or any generalization about humanity - tmtyler did. I just used his false understanding to show that it is contradicting itself. I could have critizised his false understanding but favored the shortcut.
And you are right when you claim that we live in a dictatorship of evil minds, but those require the silent consent of the oppressed in order to rule.
And it's a bit more complex than that, actually we are slaves who are slave-owners themselves.
@trakkaton I entirely agree with your sentiment - however in the reality of this world the current measure of "success" is indeed based on those proclivities you had mentioned. The most prolific viruses (malaria etc) ultimately wipe out the host - and perhaps we as such are headed for the same destiny. But make no mistake we are currently a "spectacularly successful species" to ultimately be judged by the universe.
I'm not going to accept the sleight of hands. What tmtyler is trying to do is to deny doom by claiming "success" (in the positive sense), then trying to prove that "success" (in the negative sense). That's ridiculous!
@trakkaton I think you may have misinterpreted his video. Of course I am completely drunk - and I - as you - also believe the end is nigh. I think the point is that the reality is it all has to end sometime - endless growth is impossible - and at that time all of us kooks will say "see we told you so" --- like the broken clock being correct twice a day. but let us not be so arrogant that we think that our prophesy is better than the thousands before us. (or ahead of us)
You didn't really address my comment in any way (sleigth of hands, remember?).
"It all has to end sometime" - Yes, but that doesn't say if now or in a couple of billion years.
"endless growth is impossible" - That's one of the main reasons why doom is coming in the next years. Along with peak everything, the derivatives bubble, just-in-time-production, risk technologies, police state and surveillance, etc.
I'm not a broken clock, I offer reasonable, measurable, falsifiable facts.
@trakkaton Yes I felt the same way. However one day I said to myself (in 2004) - if this is indeed going to happen.....when? At the time I felt 2 years was the time line. In 2 years the Earth was still there - so I HAD to admit I may be just following a genetic program. I still feel as you do - and can justify the Doom as well by looking at all the imminent threats - however admit I truly do not knew if or when. Give us a timeline - come back here then and we'll talk. If the internets still work
DOOM can bring you money, attention, fame, popularity, but if you are right then you will not live to see it. Why worry about something which neither you anyone else can do anything about?
It' s good to plan for disasters, be they militaristic or astronomic, but planning for the end of the world (not just a big attack on part of one country) is pointless because we cannot change what some perceive to be an inevitable future.
Why be concerned about DOOM - when nobody can do anything about it?
According to my thinking on the subject, the answer appears to be in order to receive the social benefits that accrue to those warning others about danger, to feel good about yourself by warning others, because your brain has been hijacked by the superstimulus presented by DOOM virus - and in some cases to get rich by selling DOOM-infected products to unsuspecting DOOM suckers.
I am not so sure DOOM is harmless. Causes are a marketing bonnanza - where advertising is everything - and we have good evidence that DOOM spreads virulently, independently of any links to the facts of the matter.
Many recipients of the DOOM message will read it as DOOM and GLOOM. Others will alert others to the danger, and spread the DOOM message - like a pyramid scheme with no product. Probably, little productive activity will take place. It seems to me there are more worthy causes.
It seems to me as though it would be useful to distinguish between DOOM as futurism, and DOOM as an attention-seeking signalling behaviour, propagated as a mind virus.
The latter DOOM hypothesis seems to be a neglected area. I think the study of DOOM should give it considerably more attention.
Because predicting DOOM can bring you money, attention, fame, popularity. DOOM in it's very nature goes against the statistical fact that we are here now. Our Earth's existence and solar system has been tested millions of times over millions of years, but the orientation and order of our system prevents DOOM from happening.
Anyway, you are also a very good English Teacher,
delivering a great listening-training for high-speed-speeches.
kataklysmozarella 3 weeks ago
One more comment (sorry for my english): okay, you really like the idea that intelligent machines will become the masters of this planet ( this galaxy etc...) pretty soon and you fervently emphasize your wish that these machines won't have anything in common with human beings. Some might qualify this as an altruistic dream of absolute power. It certainly gives me the impression that your mind is perpetually oscillating between self-hatred and an stockholm-syndrome.
kataklysmozarella 3 weeks ago
Let me quote W. B. Yeats:
“Hell is the place of those who have denied (being human, i may add);
They find there what they planted and what dug,
A Lake of Spaces, and a Wood of Nothing,
And wander there and drift, and never cease
Wailing for substance.”
kataklysmozarella 3 weeks ago
You are extremly smart, that’s for sure.
But please consider this:
There is also a long history of eschatological salvation expectations (Naherwartungen) -
many of them resulting gruesome desasters.
And the enthusiastic notions about the ''technological singularity'' are, in my opinion, an actual example for this phenomenon.
I think there’s a good chance that the ''technological singularity'' (as unstoppable as it might be ) simply leads to an existence of INFINITE boredom and desperation.
kataklysmozarella 3 weeks ago
Tim, I love you even though I disagree with a lot of what you say.
TheMightySalami1 2 months ago
You said in the video that resources on the planet are abundant. Are they?... Just listen to what Richard Heinberg, here on YouTube, has to say about "peak everything", including "peak oil". Maybe you can make a video about it. I would love to know your opinion on the subject... Have a a nice day.
viorelagocs 6 months ago
@viorelagocs My views are similar to those of Matt Ridley, who has written more on this than I.
tmtyler 5 months ago
Most of us die alone as the world lives on after us. In an apocalypse the experience is shared. The idea of all of us being connected through our last experience on Earth is a powerful one. That in itself is enough to propagate doom fantasies, with honest belief in the scenarios actually occurring not being necessary.
IntarwebUser 9 months ago
Doom and Millenarianism are fears of the unknown. It's science and religions' alternative to whistling in the dark.
By the way, doom does not mean the end of everything it means judgement. So be prepared to meet thy doom. If there's anyone left to judge, they can have the last word.
chewiefrost 1 year ago
@chewiefrost
What a ridiculous pile of absurd claims.
trakkaton 10 months ago
I like the way you speak, i wish i could talk so fluid as you, but i stutter.
tranquilityjoe 1 year ago
Humans are NOT a "spectacularly successful species", unless you define "success" as destruction, mass murder, deception, starvation, ressource depletion, mass extinction, which would make you a rather weird guy.
People are generally more interested in Paris Hilton's pants than in the War against Iran (WW III), surveillance, false flag terrorism or peak oil.
You attack the supposed psychology of warnings while ignoring their content.
Your claims are unfounded.
trakkaton 1 year ago
@trakkaton 6,800,000,000 individuals is an impressive penetration of the ecosphere - for a large mammal.
tmtyler 1 year ago 2
@tmtyler
You didn't talk about penetration, you talked about success. And that is at best narrowminded and inaccurate when talking about destruction, mass murder, deception, starvation, ressource depletion, mass extinction.
trakkaton 1 year ago
Wow, tmtyler still didn't correct his mistakes. Obviously he is immune to rational thought and maintains debunked falsehoods and fallacies because of his overblown ego. Now let me show you some more ways in which you're wrong (except the sleight of hands):
2. A lot of doom-sayer HAVE been right in the past, as whole cities, regions, even civilizations have already gone down in catastrophe (->history book).
3. You completely ignore the selection bias of your claims.
4. All-or-nothing fallacy.
trakkaton 5 months ago
@trakkaton Uh, I was talking about THE END OF THE WORLD. I don't object to people proclaiming DOOM as a Tsunami rushes towards them. For selection bias see 1:42. What "all-or-nothing fallacy"? P.S. Please clean up your act - your criticisms here and elsewhere are of appalling quality, and are laced with pointless ad hominen attacks.
tmtyler 5 months ago
@tmtyler
- The end of the world is always only the end of the respective horizon of the people in question. The universe, Mars or Australia are irrelevant regarding Doom of the Maya civilization.
- To call the Cuban Missile Crises "a very very long way from the end of the world" is ridiculous. The close encounter with nuclear warfare is as close to the end of the world as one can be.
- It is irrelevant whether you mentioned selection bias, it is relevant that you don't understand it.
trakkaton 5 months ago
@tmtyler
Your conclusion that something didn't happen in this universe at this point in time and therefore it is unlikely to happen is as pointless as claiming "nuclear stand-offs never result in nuclear warfare". If you got hit by lightning and survived it that doesn't make lightning non-lethal. What's so difficult to understand?
- Your all-or-nothing-fallacy is that you don't accept any outcome to be regarded as end of the world if anything is left.
trakkaton 5 months ago
@trakkaton I simply did not argue that because the world hasn't ended so far, it is unlikely to. Much of my actual argument is at 1:53. and 3:17.
tmtyler 5 months ago
@tmtyler
Incorrect. Almost every claim you present uses selection bias. Ignoring the sleight of hands (a criticism you have - again - ignored so far) it is selction bias to use the alleged "success" of the human species to calculate the probability of doom. Ignoring your ahistorical view (humans have been reduced to about 3000 individuals in a past armageddon), it is selection bias to use the alleged absence of armageddon to calculate its probability. Cuban missile crisis. Doomsday clock. Etc.
trakkaton 5 months ago
@tmtyler
If you don't understand the meaning of the word "ad hominem attack" then refrain from using the term. "Ad hominem" means to attack someone as an substitute for an argument, NOT to speculate why someone refuses to correct his position once they are debunked.
P.S.: Please clean up your act. Your claims here and elsewhere are of appalling quality. Ignoring that your positions have been debunked does not make them better. It's irrational, unscientific and autistic.
trakkaton 5 months ago
@trakkaton If you don't think saying I have an "overblown ego" is ad hominem, it is you who needs to look the term up.
tmtyler 5 months ago
@tmtyler
Learn to read. Really. Or, to be more specific: Learn to READ what other people WROTE instead of thinking around while reading. And then RESPOND to what they ACTUALLY WROTE. Because you AGAIN ignored COMPLETELY what I wrote to present another UNRELATED and UNCHANGED REPETITION of your initial claim. And this kind of monologue simply IS annoying!
trakkaton 5 months ago
@trakkaton- The reasons being are that the ones who are corrupt and "evil" among us, have taken control, by crook, or pretty much everything! Not all human beings are evil. If you honestly believe this, how highly do you even hold yourself? Do I honestly need to continue?
Malachi1979 1 year ago
@Malachi1979
I'm not making the generalization or any generalization about humanity - tmtyler did. I just used his false understanding to show that it is contradicting itself. I could have critizised his false understanding but favored the shortcut.
And you are right when you claim that we live in a dictatorship of evil minds, but those require the silent consent of the oppressed in order to rule.
And it's a bit more complex than that, actually we are slaves who are slave-owners themselves.
trakkaton 1 year ago
@trakkaton- "of pretty much everything!
Malachi1979 1 year ago
@trakkaton I entirely agree with your sentiment - however in the reality of this world the current measure of "success" is indeed based on those proclivities you had mentioned. The most prolific viruses (malaria etc) ultimately wipe out the host - and perhaps we as such are headed for the same destiny. But make no mistake we are currently a "spectacularly successful species" to ultimately be judged by the universe.
zeezeegloo 11 months ago
@zeezeegloo
I'm not going to accept the sleight of hands. What tmtyler is trying to do is to deny doom by claiming "success" (in the positive sense), then trying to prove that "success" (in the negative sense). That's ridiculous!
trakkaton 11 months ago
@trakkaton I think you may have misinterpreted his video. Of course I am completely drunk - and I - as you - also believe the end is nigh. I think the point is that the reality is it all has to end sometime - endless growth is impossible - and at that time all of us kooks will say "see we told you so" --- like the broken clock being correct twice a day. but let us not be so arrogant that we think that our prophesy is better than the thousands before us. (or ahead of us)
zeezeegloo 10 months ago
@zeezeegloo
You didn't really address my comment in any way (sleigth of hands, remember?).
"It all has to end sometime" - Yes, but that doesn't say if now or in a couple of billion years.
"endless growth is impossible" - That's one of the main reasons why doom is coming in the next years. Along with peak everything, the derivatives bubble, just-in-time-production, risk technologies, police state and surveillance, etc.
I'm not a broken clock, I offer reasonable, measurable, falsifiable facts.
trakkaton 10 months ago
@trakkaton Yes I felt the same way. However one day I said to myself (in 2004) - if this is indeed going to happen.....when? At the time I felt 2 years was the time line. In 2 years the Earth was still there - so I HAD to admit I may be just following a genetic program. I still feel as you do - and can justify the Doom as well by looking at all the imminent threats - however admit I truly do not knew if or when. Give us a timeline - come back here then and we'll talk. If the internets still work
zeezeegloo 10 months ago
DOOM can bring you money, attention, fame, popularity, but if you are right then you will not live to see it. Why worry about something which neither you anyone else can do anything about?
It' s good to plan for disasters, be they militaristic or astronomic, but planning for the end of the world (not just a big attack on part of one country) is pointless because we cannot change what some perceive to be an inevitable future.
ianonline 2 years ago
Why be concerned about DOOM - when nobody can do anything about it?
According to my thinking on the subject, the answer appears to be in order to receive the social benefits that accrue to those warning others about danger, to feel good about yourself by warning others, because your brain has been hijacked by the superstimulus presented by DOOM virus - and in some cases to get rich by selling DOOM-infected products to unsuspecting DOOM suckers.
tmtyler 2 years ago
I am not so sure DOOM is harmless. Causes are a marketing bonnanza - where advertising is everything - and we have good evidence that DOOM spreads virulently, independently of any links to the facts of the matter.
Many recipients of the DOOM message will read it as DOOM and GLOOM. Others will alert others to the danger, and spread the DOOM message - like a pyramid scheme with no product. Probably, little productive activity will take place. It seems to me there are more worthy causes.
tmtyler 2 years ago
Speculating on psychology leads to what practical insights?
Book recommendation: The Constructal Theory of Social Dynamics.
Living systems grow to peak complexity, then undergo succession or dieoff.
I've never died; so I can't believe I'm doomed.
lioeviloym 2 years ago
It seems to me as though it would be useful to distinguish between DOOM as futurism, and DOOM as an attention-seeking signalling behaviour, propagated as a mind virus.
The latter DOOM hypothesis seems to be a neglected area. I think the study of DOOM should give it considerably more attention.
tmtyler 2 years ago
Because predicting DOOM can bring you money, attention, fame, popularity. DOOM in it's very nature goes against the statistical fact that we are here now. Our Earth's existence and solar system has been tested millions of times over millions of years, but the orientation and order of our system prevents DOOM from happening.
brandonkirk 2 years ago
Most humans are DOOM suckers - as the Hollywood DOOM mongers figured out long ago - so, yes, DOOM sells.
Shouldn't we be fighting the fire, rather than fanning the flames, though?
tmtyler 2 years ago