Iranian Elections, Israel and the United States - STRATFOR Insights

[chairde]

There appears to be a great rift in the population of Iran. Both sides have supporters and both sides are substantial in size. This is a formula for a civil war. The best thing we should do is just sit back and enjoy the show. It is a shame that both sides can't lose.

[CCostenjo]

I simply love listening to Stratfor and particularly Dr George Friedman's analysis. He's a breath of fresh air.

[PersianTruth1]

People keep saying its unpredecented for certain things to have happened in this recent election. They fail to realize in past 30 years its also historically unprecedented for a president to visit every single province TWICE in less than 4 years. I mean he visited every single village in the country. He was as popular as somebody can be. Mousavi didnt even enter the race until 2 months before election. He has no chance against the populist Ahmadinejad.

[TheLegitHeel]

Iranian election myth #10: Fraud happened because of the lack of transparency.

TRUTH: Each candidate had their own representatives conducting observations in every polling center.

[TheObamasucks]

God bless the Iranian protesters, their bravery is commendable in the face of a tyrranical dictator. Pray for the freedom of Iran

[DocBadwrench]

My only complaint is that StratFor opens up comments on these video postings. I don't think that the YouTube community is where you are going to get thoughtful, critically-thought out arguments.

You could play conspiracy-nut BINGO with the wide variety of uncomplicated rants about "the truth" available in these many words. It's funny how 100+ radically different conspiracy theories are all equally true, regardless of their mutually-exclusive arguments.

[MarineCorpOfficer]

much agreed. I think it the comments should not be open. Stratfor members can comment on them at the website, if thats necessary. You just get so much unintelligable garbage in comments here.

[docholladay2112]

I would REALLY love to hear Dr. Friedman explain his hypothesis that the Iranian election was not rigged. The enormous evidence that points toward a fix is pretty damning.

[matthias4085]

As much as i wish for the Iranian protests to succeed, (though the protests were far from perfect) meaning there were some irregularities, in end Ahmadinejad it seems he did win those elections. Maybe not by the wide margin that was announced but nevertheless people underestimated his support. The polling before the election was unreliable. Like others said on here youtube is not the perfect place to discuss this issue. It was more like wishful thinking on our part than what was the reality

[evilmoneysystem]

Just show me ones "evidence" that support Iran election was rigged,

[anonj08]

what about the claims that Ahamdinejad got close to 80% of the Kurdish votes in the major kurdish regions?

That is completely unprecendented in Iranian eletoral history. THe Kurdish regions have been staunchly anti-clerical regime and are mostly side-lined and ignored by the regime.

Under Ahmadinejad's rule they have seen more repression and executions than at any other time. So how can we trust the polls countrywide when they are making such bold claims about the Kurdish regions?

[momardrame]

This all happened thanks to Obama's Cairo speech. Him extending his hand to the muslim world made the Iranians want a change from Ahmadinejad.

[CCostenjo]

@momardrame

What evidence do you have for that? I didn't see anything tangible from Obama that indicates a change in policy. His words in themselves are a real shift but I am yet to see what actual policies of his have changed. He still hasn't stopped threatening to attack Iran and even now he's attempting to have a 4th round of UN Sanctions applied.

I can't imagine the Iranian people being in love with him in light of these facts.

[aoeaoae]

an interior ministry report to the Supreme Leader Khamenei was leaked, which stated that Ahmanejad came THIRD, Musavi FIRST, and then asked the Supreme Leader to determine which of the four candidates should be proclaimed the winner.

This is what the know-nothing Stratfor's Friedman proclaims "a relatively fair elections". Speaks of "A'jad policies" as if he, and not Khamenei, is a policy-maker. Thinks Obama will change his policy DESIGNED to appease nuclearized Iran INTHEFIRSTPLACE.

Pathetic.

[docholladay2112]

I have to agree, George. I'm a sucsriber to stratfor, off and on for a few years now and this is one that i believe you have completely wrong. You never explained your hypothesis toward the fairness of the election. There is substantial evidence that points to a rigged election. At the end of the day, it's not important who won, Iranian policies will continue anyway, much as the US's policies in Iraq/Afghanistan, which you were correct on.

Please explain your reasoning, Dr. Friedman

[lokh2pati]

it's all rhetoric

[nofunclub]

guess who was prime minister during the Iran Iraq war (81-89)?

guess who was directly involved with the Iran/Contras affair ?

and guess who have staged riots, with the possible help from the CIA?

I am NOT wrong in this

[nazigoli]

The election was stolen from the people of iran. We did not vote for Ahmadi Nejad.

Why do you only approve the comments PRO Islamic government to get posted here? Why don't you post my message?

[polygamous1]

all in this video are good points except one who really runs the usa? who vets all presidential canditates? who has such a huge leverage on the us administration? who murdered JFK? 10 days after he said he will dismantle the fed res? a truly great leader a war Hero Not a war coward

n for the love of his countrywanting to make americans lives better he was killed wonder hiow far obama dares go? maybe he expects he is safe causemost blk american won't stant for him been murdered i hope so

[warisforsuckers]

You guys are rollin with video now. How you doin, George?!

Netanyahu is the guy creating the internal crisis in Israel by just up and changing the stakes on a whim (now Palestinians can never have a military -- yeah that'll work, and they can never eat ice cream either). Netanyahu'll try to mess up any 2-state plan.

Of course I'd think this is all a contrast principle play anyway (what's that mean?)... either way, Netanyahu is acting more and more like his opposing pole of Hamas, everyday.

[Bamacountrygal]

EXCELLENT -- as only George Friedman can deliver. Doesn't mean I like the trappings regarding Iran, Israel, & the US, but this analysis is thought-filled and without bias. Thanks, George, I always benefit from your reports.

[CySa11]

George Friedman's analysis of the Iranian elections is totally wrong. How could 38 million votes be counted in 2 hours manually, unless there was a prearranged selction

[CCostenjo]

@CySa11

Well, they can't be counted manually, the system is computerized.

[markyturner]

Interesting. "A relatively fair election in which AN destroyed his opponent"? Can you elaborate what data that analysis is based upon?

[swift4grizz]

Exactly -- based on what evidence? Exit polls showed much differently. Large turnouts for elections usually signify a desire for change.

[CCostenjo]

@swift4grizz

A desire for change? Based on two elections in which the same man ran and won (Mohammad Khatami)? He is the only Reformist President Iran has ever had! How can anyone presume to see a trend which includes 2 elections and 1 president??? lol