Crash Course: Chapter 4 - The Power of Compounding by Chris Martenson

[tarwin]

@freierz : what you say is true, but the he goes through explaining the vertical range used in his graph (population at least) in an earlier video. The impact of any graph (and statistic) relies on range, and he does explain the range he is using.

[freierz]

Maybe it's easier for most people to understand exponential growth by talking about "hockey stick" shapes, but on a fundamental level this is misleading. I'm not saying exponential growth isn't causing a massive crisis today, but I think you could easily make that clear without being so misleading.

Look at the wikipedia article for exponential growth to see what I mean.

[asgerregsa]

Thumbs up if "Chapter Four" by Avenged Sevenfold brought you here.

[kingofthepaupers]

Jct: That's why it's so stupid to charge interest on the debt for our nation's (poker) chips. It's why interest-free poker chips retain their value and suffer no inflation and why trying to pay 11 on your mortgage deathgamble when they only printed 10 results in losers havinbg their collateral foreclosed, resulting in the same money chasing less goods, Shift B inflation, and not more money chasing the goods, Shift A. Youtube for Big Lie of Economics or How Banks Create Money.

[MacabreManifesto]

Thank you for your huge purchase sir! You may pay me in either $100,000,000 or place a grain of gold at least as big in all three dimensions as the thickness of one of my hairs (1 μm) on this chess square and then place double that mass worth of gold on the next square and then double the next squares material on the square after that until all 64 squares have sufficient gold on them and pay me with that. ;)

[DNAutics]

@atomantic, so what you don't understand is that it doesn't matter, because something that's growing at a rate of 10%, or even 1% is also growing at a rate of 100%. If something grows 10% a day, is no different from growing 100% a week. All exponential curves are fundamentally the same, so maybe he's wrong and we don't have 10 years, we have 50 years instead.

[atomantic]

I think the 100% growth rate is misleading his point since he's talking about things that are growing at a rate of 1%-10% with tiny fluctuations beyond. He also seems to be ignoring that growth rates are not constant. And a growth rate demonstration of 1% won't give you that dramatic, OMG we are drowing and only 5 minutes ago it looked like nothing was happening--so the whole "everything is happening NOW" thing is making my skeptic bone itch

[wordpresswidget]

@atomantic I wouldn't say misleading, just exaggerated. It makes the point of exponential growth in an overly dramatic fashion. As for the skeptic bone, just remember that the last half of the stadium is filled in the last second. For perspective 1oz. grown by 5%/min will turn into 1000Gal in 241min, 17.7K Gal in 5hr, and over 100Mil Gal in 8 hrs.

[atomantic]

OK, wait just a minute here. To be clear, this demonstrates the power of compounding a 100% rate of growth. Just to be clear. I don't think anything he's talking about in this course is growing at a rate of 100%. Just to be clear.

[HarmoniousDissonance]

@ExquisiteDoom I actually wasn't suggesting that government could fix any of the issues. Quite the opposite. I was just acknowledging that when (and oil will run out, it's not a matter of "if") we hit peak oil there are going to be problems - problems that a freer market or more government regulation won't be able to solve. As for solutions - I have one suggestion that you'll likely find more ludicrous than when you thought I was a staunch liberal: The Venus Project

[ExquisiteDoom]

@HarmoniousDissonance It's a matter of if, unless you can make the epistemological case that you know of all the oil deposits the earth reserves and how cost effective they are. We WILL hit peak oil, but the 1960's peak is not necessarily it. Please stop drawing hasty conclusions.

The Venus Project i intend to make a series of videos debunking the whole economic aspect of. Funny that you bring that up to me, a staunch battle hardened critic of it.

By the way, it is a Liberal ideology..

[HarmoniousDissonance]

@ExquisiteDoom Well if you want to brand everything from democrat to anarchist as liberal, that's your business. I'll look forward to these vidoes. Hopefully it'll be more than the standard: capitalism works, socialism doesn't, technological unemployment is a fallacy, humans are greedy and selfish by nature - arguments that have been presented but no longer have relevance to TVP or have been refuted by actual scientific analysis as opposed to "facts" handed down by those in power.

[ExquisiteDoom]

@HarmoniousDissonance I have economic and philosophical arguments in addition to those. I also highly doubt the validity of your scientific analyses, given the bias of a VP supporter and my own experience on how easy it is to ignore antithetical evidence. Trust me, i'm dealing with a fair share of nonsense, daily.

[HarmoniousDissonance]

@ExquisiteDoom Aren't we all. I'm glad that you question the validity of TVP analyses. I would be happier if you'd also equally question the current popular economic theories. But I shall await your videos so we can take the debate into the specifics.

[ExquisiteDoom]

@HarmoniousDissonance I do question current economic theories, depending on which you refer to.

About TVP, i've made my first video, although it is kind of boring and i don't know how audible it is.

I was sort of hoping to create other parts as debate is sparked up.

[Koss12100]

One problem is that in real world multiplication, exponential growth, compound interest does not exist. In relation to real world those mathematical functions are just theoretical fantasies. In real world there is only addition and deduction. I believe that Dr Albert Allen Bartlett and Co, living in a fantasy world of their own making.

[phatcheck]

@Koss12100 please tell me you are kidding!

[steerider]

I learned this in fourth grade -- the joke was to go to your parents and suggest that they give you an allowance of one penny, and double it each day for one month. By the end of thirty days, they would owe you over five million dollars a day. Try it: Take a calculator and punch in 0.01. Then punch "x 2", then just keep hitting "=". It goes slow for a while, then around day 20... wow!

[ExquisiteDoom]

Okay i've watched enough, this is based on empty maths with no correlation with reality. There are no economics involved in his fraudulent claims... Just because there's a compounding effect somewhere does not mean that the trend will go on forever. It's all baseless bullcrap and i've seen enough scare tactics like this to give him any credibility. For example, if we do hit peak oil, prices will skyrocket and prompt the market to figure new ways to create energy which negates the hockey stick.

[HarmoniousDissonance]

@ExquisiteDoom So in your example when we hit peak oil and nobody can afford to drive except the 3% of the population with electric cars, you think the economy will be fine? How about when we hit "peak environment" and there's no more trees on the earth? The whole point is that if we're not on the way to fixing the problem by the time we hit the peak, there's not going to be a way to fix it without catastrophic collapse. Try thinking for yourself instead of regurgitating "free market = god"

[ExquisiteDoom]

@HarmoniousDissonance Haha, i never said anything remotely close to "free market = god" . By contrast, you're acting like government can solve any of these here issues which would require some serious evidence.

Also remember oil consumption could have been influenced by government subsidies; if the influence is massive, then peak oil's main catalyst could be government.

Any rational private entrepreneur that is not influenced by subsidy would make sure they don't kill the golden egg chick.

[ExquisiteDoom]

@HarmoniousDissonance Also your "peak" environment scare flies in the face of just about every story out there about private ownership protecting personal interests better than states protecting public interests. A good book on this is "Economics: Private and Public Choice By James D. Gwartney"

I await your central planning solution.

[formerutuber]

"Compound Interest Is the most Powerful Force in the Universe" - Albert Einstein

[daveimboden]

@formerutuber see Snopes on this at: snopes.com/quotes/einstein/int­erest.asp

[670Kiester]

I'm now going to have to look up exponential functions, re the Fenway Park example.

I believe him, but 49 minutes of doubling to fill the park! well, I can't wrap my mind around it properly.

[PistolPackingPatriot]

I think he selected the 93% empty stadium as a deliberate corellation to the (currently) 97% inflation in the dollar since the 1913 Federal Reserve Act.

[exposingcrooks2009]

This guy, Chris Martenson is a CROOK. He is spreading his videos (material which he stole from experts) in a way to increase his exposure. Now on his website he is charging money $500/ hr to speak with him hahaha. And he is charging for lectures. He is even claiming now that he predicted all of these economic problems. THIS MAN IS A LIAR AND A FRAUD. THIS GUY IS AN UNEMPLOYED WEASEL LOOKING TO EXPLIOT THE MISERY OF OTHERS.

[TheWestAspen]

OK, so a guy researches ideas while unemployed, develops an overall conceptual idea, then communicates it, and wants to charge for his research and compilation. How does this make him evil, is this not what professors in todays university system do? A crook deceives and takes, how is this FREE video series a taking. If you know he is fraudulent, then report it, otherwise, this is free speech.

We need food for thought, as we are constantly fed messages thru traditional media.

[mintoo2cool]

@exposingcrooks2009 he is the former vice president of Pfizer inc , healthcare division... you are the only liar crook i see here ...

i dunno about his website and all ... but these videos are logical ... and they are offered free of cost ... so what is the harm in listening to them

[LazyOtaku]

@mintoo2cool agreed, liar crook exposingcrooks2009 is a liar crook.

[Chuichupachichi]

Overpopulation my ass! I drove across the state of Illinois from Missouri to Indiana and didn't see even 1 sign of habitation. There are more states like that

The problem is overDemocrapification aka overJackassification. You want to know what's wrong with the environment? UNNATURALNESS! That's what. This environment is being polluted with cock to man ass UNNATURALNESS. With Femme-Nazi power lust, authority freak, domination of man UNNATURALNESS. With planned baby killing UNNATURALNESS....etc.

[MrDollar100]

wow

[znubzz188]

wrong perspective, think global and you'll see the limits human civilization in relation to the planet its situated upon.

[WestCoastSwinger]

we're fucked

[elwalvador]

Anyone know the current population growth rate year over year? I would guess it's around 3% but I don't know.

[Kansiov]

The world population increases by 220,000 a day.

[iecutiel]

fear

problem-reaction-solution

what is the solution being proposed and who benefits ?

[willy14916]

another story about compounding and exponential functions (this is a myth, don't know if it is true, but the math involved is, i have checked it). the peasant inventor of checkers went to the king of where he lived and challenged him to checkers, if the peasant won, the king must put one grain of rice on a square, two on the next square, four on the next and so on. the king had to sell his kingdom to afford the rice

[OfAllTradesJack]

Then go expose him at one of those seminars friend if you think he is a crook. This part of his work is free. And filled with accurate data. So dont bother us

[Kimit420]

Why are you still watching his videos?? i think you need to get a life

[TEHREALBOB]

Yes. Worrying about survival is a sure sign you need to get a life.

[wishtree]

Trusting in the mind of Christ and God to deliver when we are in a helpless state will be the test of our faith.rev11:1-.

Helpless but not hopeless,we have the power to Love our neighbor and be enlightened with true knowledge,Knowing God will give him glory Rev18:1-... and save us in bad circumstances....

[A4anarchy1]

Lmao thats exactly the mindset that prevents humans from maximizing their potential, thats the mindset that gets us all blown up

[symmetry08]

stop mentioning imaginary friends which based on fiction and deception.

[bytedildo]

HOCKEY STICK!

[Teyec00n]

I just don't think "awareness" is enough of a factor to create substantial change. I see too many issues in the world being ignored for the sake of personal gain and I don't see where the fear of consequences has ever trumped short term greed. I believe the inherent selfish qualities of human nature has and will continue to devastate the quality of life on this planet. The conscientious people who put aside self-interest are too few to effect any substantial directional change from status quo.

[bytedildo]

well...I think that we should have special schools for kids and teach them be better earthlings.

[birdieman073]

i ask you to realize that there was a time on this planet where people did not destroy their surroundings to survive. in fact, in many places this time still exists now. saying it is 'human nature' is to stick your head and heart in the sand, hiding the truth that this is just one type of culture of humans

[LDRinbrampton]

I believe that selfish qualities do not reside in human nature. I believe selfish qualities are learned into humans who grow up in a "society" of scarce resources (in our world it seems the scarce resource is money, leading to low quality of life). If humans can one day live in a society where a high quality life is not a scarce resource, then we will see very little inherent selfish qualities in humans.

[Teyec00n]

I disagree. In fact, I think the opposite is true. From what I've seen and experienced, the least selfish people are people of very modest means and few resources. The most selfish have been very well to do people with many resources by comparison but always feel that they don't have enough. A real survey of millionaires has indicated as much. This is why you never see a "retired" billionaire. Asking a poor person to donate 5% of their income is a lot likelier than asking a rich person.

[xXU2BerXx]

Agreed. Unlike the "third world" populations,modern societies such as ours have little or no appreciation or sense of value of the resources that make our society possible. Just as an example, people have no clue how lucky we are to be able to do something as redundant as walking into the kitchen and filling up a glass of water. When you look at how scarce fresh water is in other parts of the world, and what people have to go through to get it, it puts things into a whole new perspective...

[oweninc]

selfishness is an inherent human trait. So is being social, sympathy, greed, hatred, happiness. In the modern developed world we are not attuned to the notion of 'scarcity' - although we might recognise the issue of diminishing resources, it doesn't really have such an adverse effect on our mindset and lifestyle. We do live in a 'high quality life' but selfishness is just as noticeable as kindness. This is simply human nature - which is a permanent and crystalized construct.

[lwanatt]

its just evolution, same old same old, evolution does experience paradigm shifts though where it seems to periodically alter the very equation upon which it is built, of course it doesn't in actuality do that, we are very close to entering a stage were we become wholly in control of our own evolutionary destinies, but the divisions in time between each paradigm shift grows shorter by step functions, soon after that the "children" of our species, living machines will be borne

[beserker5]

Since you are human thinking good of humans is a way of thinking of yourself as good without sounding vain/arrogant. Thinking yourself a good person is merely a cleverly constructed sequence of thoughts that unlock the chemicals in your brain that make you feel good. It's an emotional habit much like a drug addict rationalizes his need for drugs but really he just likes the feeling. The big fight in our heads is that pleasure almost always beats the crap out of logic.

[Teyec00n]

Why is it that people have such an optimistic and graspable sense of compounding when it references their investments but completely dismiss those same effects when it references devastating problems like population, pollution, resource usage etc? I've never been able to convince the majority of people that "growth" is not inherently good because of it's tendency to occur at an excessive compound rate. Of course, you're presentation is better but will do little to change an f'd up world.

[RichardRoy2]

You're so pessimistic. You need to have confidence in your ability to see enough to project it on to the rest of the human race, and see that there is still hope. People are looking. Perhaps the growth of awareness will be as exponential as the problem being presented.

[aiyic]

Great! We are all so dumb, it's untrue.