but even if prices moved in trends, e.g it was 10x as likely for the price to go up in a given time interval, then the magnitude of an average loss would be 10x as high compared to a win.
So from an outperformance standpoint trends would not be of any importance assuming they existed, and since the lowering of systematic risk is equivalent to gaining outperformance, because
of their practical interchangeability - there would not be any importance of trends at all.
@mvogt I agree, I don't see how tenet (3) follows from the first two; although i regard the first 2 tenets as rather self-evident. In that sense, I disagree w.r.t supply/demand: i think, ultimately, the only direct impact on bid-ask prices is supply/demand. Future expectations, variously held, indirectly inform decision to buy (demand) or sell (supply).
As a fundamental analyst, the thing that most challenges me is the truth of 1 and 2 and related: that sentiment shifts prices in the short run
So the fundamental tenet for TA you depict is "Prices can be projected because" 1. "prices tend to move in trends" and 2. "patterns tend to repeat"
and that is somehow implied from "Supply and demand determine prices" and from the derivatives (mathematical sense) of those.
Firstly I do not think that the premise is true, because AT BEST prices are determined indirectly by future expectations of supply and demand and not directly and solely by
but even if prices moved in trends, e.g it was 10x as likely for the price to go up in a given time interval, then the magnitude of an average loss would be 10x as high compared to a win.
So from an outperformance standpoint trends would not be of any importance assuming they existed, and since the lowering of systematic risk is equivalent to gaining outperformance, because
of their practical interchangeability - there would not be any importance of trends at all.
mvogt 1 month ago
@mvogt I agree, I don't see how tenet (3) follows from the first two; although i regard the first 2 tenets as rather self-evident. In that sense, I disagree w.r.t supply/demand: i think, ultimately, the only direct impact on bid-ask prices is supply/demand. Future expectations, variously held, indirectly inform decision to buy (demand) or sell (supply).
As a fundamental analyst, the thing that most challenges me is the truth of 1 and 2 and related: that sentiment shifts prices in the short run
bionicturtledotcom 1 month ago
So the fundamental tenet for TA you depict is "Prices can be projected because" 1. "prices tend to move in trends" and 2. "patterns tend to repeat"
and that is somehow implied from "Supply and demand determine prices" and from the derivatives (mathematical sense) of those.
Firstly I do not think that the premise is true, because AT BEST prices are determined indirectly by future expectations of supply and demand and not directly and solely by
supply and demand,
mvogt 1 month ago
Thanks a lot
Touramful 1 month ago
Thanks so much
candybar123486 1 month ago