CNN/youtube Republican Debate Question: Peak Oil

[FreesWorld]

Excellent question, very nice work. At least you got people talking here. I think Dr. Ron Paul is the only one of the early candidates who can understand most of your points. I recommend his congressional website. Please check Amory Lovins and add effiency to your list.

Keep up the good work.

[shovet1111]

I agree largely with this video but windmills are just as much of a boondoggle as ethanol. They just built a brand new coal plant in my state and it make as much electricity as 1500 windmills and windmills are only usable 1/3 of the year. Coal plants are extremely dirty but the production of concrete for the towers is also very dirty.

[HiTekVagabond]

You forget that coal plants still depend on huge strip mines. And, you also forget that it took millions of years of sunlight to grow all of that coal. The coal is a finite resource.

Windturbines harvest the wind - an endless supply. Electricity from wind is now cheaper than anything else except for existing hydro.

[shovet1111]

I know coal is terrible, I was just saying that windmills are just as much of a boondoggle as ethanol.  The production of concrete is one of the largest producers of CO2 and dust clouds in the U.S. It takes more than a thousand tons of concrete to make the tower. The energy it makes is clean and renewable but making the windmill is very dirty. Windmills are still better than coal. I still don't think they are clean though.

[HiTekVagabond]

The Vestas V80 wind turbines I've seen go up don't use concrete towers. You may be thinking of a cooling tower for a coal, oil, nuclear or gas-fired plant. Or, you must be thinking of the amount of concrete used to install a whole wind farm instead of a single tower. Towers for commercial-sized wind turbines use around 300 cubic yards (25 tons) of concrete each. The towers themselves are made from steel.

The life cycle CO2 emissions from wind turbines are 1-2% of similar size gas or coal PP.

[madraven07]

It's kind of humorous that you call ethanol a boondoggle, place solar, wind, and geothermal as replacements while talking about electric cars. Surely, you know that cars are the boondoggle. The era of the private car is coming to an end - it's unsustainable.

[JoeTube27]

All the alternative energy's will not cover what you loose if you loose oil. Oil is like water to the human body. Even if cars fun off of something else your still gonna need oil for car parts, transporting the cars, repairs, lubricants for the car which all come from oil. it's a no win situation. It suck but best advice GET OUT OF DEBT, BUY GOLD, and Live below your means and get used to it.

[jetjok]

You are absolutely right on the facts. As for the pols having the vision and the will? Maybe Obama might, none of the others even comes close.

[shaitanlavey]

Mr Leeman

YOU should run for office, hell I would vote for you...

Tom Leeman for President...

[tomasleeman]

Thanks. Did you see who sponsored the debate Clean Coal come on thats a oxymoron. Free speech I think not. Big coal pollutes the process with money. The media spoon feeds the masses the issues or non issues like gay's in the military or illegal emigration. It's all a big charade what a joke CNN you could have done better.

[lpzaino3]

id vote for you as well, clean coal is a joke, theres possibilities to sequester co2 but the technology advancements would have to be large and the cost enormous

of course questions like this will never be picked up, its best to keep the majority of the public uninformed

[greywolf4744]

I ask the same question. Well put sir.

[Funkmasterizzy]

The question won't get picked because it's too long.

[tomasleeman]

I have a shorter version 30 seconds.

[GearoidSullivan]

You're dead on and deadly with your words. Therefore, you have no chance of getting picked up by CNN. They don't want the public to know about this yet. Public awareness doesn't benefit the corporate bottomline.

[tomasleeman]

$99 oil

[snoopdaniels]

You are right about oil consumption, though. We need to end it, but not to save the earth from global warming, but to get the Arabs off our back.

Nuclear power is not problematic. It is one of the solutions to our problem! Nuclear waste is easy to dispose of and produces TONS of energy.

[tomasleeman]

Look at the price of uranium over the past 2 years. China is building over 100 nuclear plants, where is the uranium going to come from to power all these new plants? Scarcity is upon us. Price rises in proportion to demand and supply. It's problematic in the fact that the resource is finite.

[snoopdaniels]

By the way, we spend much more money on liberal socialist programs, which afford zero benefit. I would much rather see us spend the money fighting terrorists in Iraq then on welfare, medicare and "social security".

[tomasleeman]

"Guns and butter" I support neither. Get rid of social security, get rid of the IRS, flat tax or consumption tax smaller government. As far as fighting terrorist in Iraq its the same as fighting communist in vietnam the only thing that changed is what we call the enemy, semantics

[snoopdaniels]

Oooooh brother.

We do NOT cause terrorism. The Arabs have been terrorists for thousands of years. Recently, they have turned to unconventional methods to spread fear and chaos.

Nobody can say for sure that burning fossil fuels causes global warming. The earth has warmed and cooled countless times in history, long before humans were a factor. See, there's this giant burning thing in the sky called "the sun"...

[tomasleeman]

"Blowback" to quote the CIA. We put the Shaw in power of Iran and what happened the Iranian revolution and hostage crises. We armed the Osama bin laden to fight the soviets in the 80's same with Saddam Hussian's war against Iran. Now we are building the largest embassy in the world right in Iraq not to mention 19 permanent bases. Its going to come back to haunt us.

[jimbonumber9]

Thank-you.Amen!

[LetFreedomRlng]

Search: Ron Paul for the Long Haul

[holyhorror]

Very good Tom, I wish i could have said it as good as you did! This is my two cents, Farmers need to grow food! Not fuel!

[RonPaulfreedomfightr]

awsome video

[MooseOfReason]

You're gonna have to shorten the question to 30 seconds. It's a great question, but it's too long and CNN won't use it.

[tomasleeman]

True

[tomasleeman]

I did a shorter version above as a response

[22645522]

Oil keeps rising and now pakiastan has suspended elections, turkey is invading northern Iraq, Saber rattling about Iran by the US & Russia it's getting very unstable out there, not to mention putin dissolving their government

[tomasleeman]

Oil at $94! Gold over $800 an once! A crises in Iran! A pres with a southern drawl It's 1979 all over again but were is Paul Volcker to save the day?

[PreservingLiberty]

I hope this question makes it!! Ron Paul will hit a homerun with it and every other candidate will have nothing to say.

GREAT QUESTION- From Michael Ruperts mind to our ears.

[tomasleeman]

Oil on it's way to $100

[fred904]

Tom, you are really where it's at. Did I tell you I ran into Barack Obama at the beach at MV? It was just him and me - not a single secret service guy around - they (all 22 of them) were up in the parking lot with their 7 new black Suburbans talking to each other.

You're exactly right about energy. President Bush is the worst thing that has ever happened to this county.

[Phrozenbot]

Good questions!

[crazycoyle96]

2 Facts to remember about peak oil: Global Discoveries of oil peaked in 1964 We consume 5 barrels of oil for every barrel found, this has been true for at least three decades.

Peak oil production will occur at around 1,000 barrels per second globally!

[JannyLynnF]

Thank you for asking this question and for bringing up the truth about E85 ethanol. Hopefully they will use this question (it's a bit long). I'm interested to see Huckabee's response to this question. Also, I would like to see somebody ask about the petrodollar.

[tomasleeman]

As the dollar falls oil becomes more expensive for us because it is traded in US dollars but not as much for the countries whos currencies are appreciating against the dollar. The Euro has run from .86 to $1.43 as oil rose from $35 to what it is today $92 in same time frame.

[JannyLynnF]

Another concern is that they will begin selling oil in another currency (like the Euro). What would happen to the dollar if that happens?

[tomasleeman]

Free Fall. Now everyone has to buy dollars to buy oil just imagine they switch to euros. There would be a fire sale on the dollar. Iran wants to establish an exchange were oil is traded in euros.

[22645522]

Oil hit $92! 10/26/2007

[ilikcagrls]

the problem isn't energy or oil being depleted....we just have too many damn people on this earth. Stop pro-creating!

[tomasleeman]

Peak Human look at a graph of human population through all of human history. There is a huge spike that corresponds with the discovery of oil. 1900 there was 1 billion today closer to 7 billion. Half of those people are becoming middle class supper consumers in india & china demand ever more oil

[gazzyjeanne]

So here is the real problem. Too many people who came into existence fueled by stored energy, now dependent upon those storehouses that are about to become scarce, with no nearly adequate substitute. Good thing that the Republicans did not take you up on your request in tonights debate, since given the record of atrocities by governments everywhere the likely solution would be about the same as Hitler's "Final Solution". That is the only thing that government is really good at, killing.

[tomasleeman]

WSJ 10/20/2007 Energy Information agency watchdog of the western nations said that stocks fell 33 million barrels or 360,000 barrels in 3rd quarter when they usually rise by 280,000 barrels they have fallen below the 5 year average to about 54 days supply. 4th Quarter is period of highest demand. You think $90 is high?

[22645522]

The tesla roadster has an electric motor that has a die-cast copper rotor, most electric motors are aluminum. Copper rotors are 90% more energy efficient than aluminum. If all the electric motor rotors were copper we would save huge amounts of electricity. And they last longer.

[mindcrime2001]

I've got the answer!!! I have a cold fussion reactor in my garage. I came up with the idea yesterday after dinner and I worked on it all last night. Who would have thought that "power to the people" would become so literal! OK, now what do I do?

[tomasleeman]

IPO

[22645522]

$90 today 10/18/2007

[trabajador84]

Very soon it will be considered mad to criminal to drive Hummers and big SUVs in suburbia. We need electric cars, trains and buses now - all are being made small scale but need to be mass produced - in the factories currently making the dinosaur vehicles.

Save the oil for big tractors for farming and planes for transport! Our grandchildren will thank us.

[jparkphd]

terrorism is a Neolithic ideal, Middle Age mindset where 'rights' tied to land ownership (greed) dictate war as the only method of control/rights maintenance. can we show the world by example that humanity can move from Neolithic ideals into a mature way of thinking, the energy crisis is our 'call to arms' to make this transition.

[tomasleeman]

My point exactly. If we redirected our resource and energy into renewables we would not be fighting resource wars over oil. Look at what is going on with Russias Putin backing Iran's nuclear ambitions, Turkey & northern Iraq, sides are being drawn & the drum beat is sounding

[jparkphd]

"lead America toward energy independence", allowing us to become world leaders in sustainable energy and social responsibility so that America can be based on sustainable prosperity, instead of greed, and knee-jerk responses to terrorism that fuel it's growth.

[tomasleeman]

The American people are at a cross roads in human history we can either lead man out of the darkness twords sustainability & energy independance or plung humanity into the abyss of resource wars and scarcity A new paradigm must emerge. One that moves us from a competitve dog eat dog world to a cooperative sustainable world.

[jparkphd]

the big one is hydrogen, that's probably the only way we can make the transition from fossil fuels to eventual electric dominated

[tomasleeman]

We need to build 400,000 wind turbines and subsidize roof top solar panels. Replace every lightbulb with compact fluorescent. People need to eat local. Most food has traveled thousands of miles burning fuel. Farmers need to go organic stop using fossil fuel fertalizers. (nitrous oxide released) Stop deforestation to grow sugar cain, corn & soybeans for fuel

[falldownhard]

Brilliant, just brilliant, you put this all so well. Instead I hear most people saying, "oh it's the (Biblical) End Times" with some 666 baby on the way. I just don't think God is going to save us from this mess. He gave us so much, SO much, but yet we've squandered His blessings and somehow have equated captitalism with democracy and Christianity. Is there anything more un-Godlike than squandering and consuming like this? It's sickening.

[jparkphd]

geothermal is too limited by locale and scale, will always be a minor contributor, right on about the Ethanol debacle...

maybe throw in the profits of big oil as the supply/demand inversion escalates, and coupled with rising consumer price accelerates inflation..

[tomasleeman]

Before the industrial revolution the earth's atmosphere contained 280 parts per million of carbon dioxide. equating to a global average temperature of 57 degrees fahrenheit today it's 380, raising the earths temperature more than 1 degree. Most scientist say that 450 is the threshold to catastrophe. If concentrations rise by 2 parts per million per year we only have 3 and a half decades. That dosen't account for methane & nitrous oxide

[tomasleeman]

There is an artical in the wall street journal 10/17/2007 on the water demands to produce ethanol. 1700 gallons of water to produce one gallon of ethanol. Solar power is 10 times as efficient as bio mass derived fuels. To cover just 10% of our gasoline demand would require 43% of our entire cropland!

[jparkphd]

Nice. Good Work!

scientifically:

can't say "burning fossil fuels causes global warming", it 'contributes to' or 'accelerates'

where did the 100 mile square solar array estimate come from, i don't know the details, but it can't be even close to right... the problem with solar is the energy conversion efficiency is just too low, we need

a scientific breakthrough to solve that problem.

[tomasleeman]

What about the solar thermal plants ( Field of Mirrors) according to John O'donnell they will be able to supple energy at about 10 cent per kilowatt-hour as cheap as natural gas & coal. The cost is half that of photovoltiaic panels google ausra.

[22645522]

If oil gets any higher ($85) all alternatives will be competitive and profitable

[gazzyjeanne]

That is not the way it works. As oil gets higher alternatives become more expensive also, because they take energy at the new higher price to produce.

For years the oil shale crowd kept saying that as the price of oil went up oil shale would become economical, but it never happened and they were saying that when oil was $10; now it is $85.

[tomasleeman]

Today 10/16/2007 it hit $87 a barrel!

[tomasleeman]

Oil hit $85 today!

[ilikcagrls]

we have enough electricity to charge batteries with...and could charge overnight or whatever...we just don't have electric cars. Another constraint might be some materials that go into producing all these batteries? I haven't researched it yet...so I dunno.

[ilikcagrls]

you are in the same situation as before with the inflation argument. I agree renewables need to be developed....and renewables would prevent money from flowing to other countries. But I think some people are misunderstanding the problem...this is a liquids crisis...not an energy crisis....

[ilikcagrls]

You talk about inflation....in terms of borrowing money for oil....yet if you didn't subsidize....and you built many renewables....that in itself would be inflation...as everyone would be paying more for energy anyway....since those alternatives are more costly than fossil fuels.....

[tomasleeman]

Inflation is the devaluation of the dollar caused by 1. The huge debt that we have incured from the wars in Iraq & afghanistan. 2 The current accout deficit or trade imbalance 3 the markets lost confidence, economic slow down in the US lowering the relative cost of money or the interest rate.

Once the infrastructure for alternatives is in place the cost would drop dramatically. Once there is mass production the cost drop dramaically and would lower inflation

[ilikcagrls]

energy would be more expensive....economies of scale would work some....but you are talking about carbon fiber wind turbine blades, large quantities of materials used to make solar panels...and millions of barrels of oil to produce all of the renewables. How would it not be inflation if energy is more expensive?? if everything produced cost more?

[ilikcagrls]

.furthermore....how is the waste of the batteries in these cars for the environment? We could be creating even more harmful waste in used batteries than we do than polluting with fossil fuels.

[ilikcagrls]

I understand most alternative energies are harnessing energy from something and converting to electricity. We have enough electricity....and that really isn't the problem....because its a LIQUID energy crisis. solar, wind, geothermal are all great renewables and should be developed....but this still doesn't cure our problem. We could switch to electric cars, but thats expensive....and hasn't been mass produced YET..

[22645522]

The wall street journal has a nice video about a high end Tesla 0 to 60 in under 4 seconds $98,000 coming out in 2008 it's an awesome looking car so we maybe on our way to electric cars. Just watch all the hollywood crowd will be driving them in stead of a prius. Oil was over $86 today! Yikes!

[ilikcagrls]

I would say decline rates are more in line with a conservative 6% decline to a more aggressive 12-14% decline/year, year over year like cantarall field is experiencing and most other flooded fields (like ghawar).

From the estimates I have read, global demand is supposed to be around 130 million barrels/day within the next 25 years. there will be a LIQUID energy crisis.

[tomasleeman]

I'm just extrapolating the numbers based on historic demand.

Let's do the math a 1% deline coupled with a 4% increase per year. Today the world use 87.5 million barrels a day in ten years at 4% we will use 129.52 barrels in 15 years closer to 160 yet at a 1% decline we will only pull out 79 million.

[ilikcagrls]

I am an energy investor...it can be solar, oil, coal, NG, nuclear, whatever. I have spent some time reading and studying energy. I think everyone who has posted a comment here has made valid points. We have hit peak production of conventional oil or are very close to...decline rates of 1% are OVERLY optimistic.

[UnderseaCaveman]

I just checked Oil Price....at a new high of $83.96....keep watching.....Oh, buy Oil stocks, why not! Perhaps one way to fight inflation, protect your savings. Oil-tracking-funds like USO. Anybody another?

[tomasleeman]

True, good ETF check out Canadian oil trusts they pay up to 11 % a month after tax and if the share price rises you make more money

[tomasleeman]

We import 16 mil barrels of oil a day into the US at $82 per barrel. $1,312,000,000 All those US dollars are going into foreign hands. Peak oil is our most pressing problem and someone has to ask the question.

[22645522]

You miss the point the average joe out there has no idea how close we are to $200 a barrel oil. Government has always lead the way in the space program, the internet and nuclear energy.

Big coal & oil get huge tax breaks and susidies from the Government. He makes a cogent argument.

[kratschiepkecker]

Abolutely right!

[gazzyjeanne]

If any of these solutions work, they would be profitable, just like it was profitable to drill for oil when it was a new industry.

If you believe these are such good alternatives then risk your own capital to bring them to the marketplace instead of suggesting that government take my capital and spend it to implement what you judge to be the solution to the problem you are focused on.

[tomasleeman]

Sometimes corporations get it wrong look at Ford & GM as compared to Honda & Toyota. GM had the hybrids first but tabled them. Look were they are now.

All of these alternatives are profitable look at FPL they have the largest wind farms in the world and just struck a deal in solar. Check out what their stock price has done in the last year. Its up 46%. Thats the type of company I invest in. And yes I do put my money were my mouth is.

[tomasleeman]

Sometimes Adam Smiths invisible hand doesn't work and you need Governments invisible hand to nudge things into the right direction. Tax breaks for electric cars, solar & wind would n't be a bad thing. Let me ask you this are you OK with Government spending your capital in Iraq?

[gazzyjeanne]

I am no OK with what most of the government spends including Iraq.  You are arguing out of both sides of your mouth when you say subsidize and then point out the failure of the ethanol subsidies. Like I said, if it works, there is no need for a subsidy, so the government has no place interfering in the energy or any other market.

[gazzyjeanne]

Left out the "t" in not. I am not OK with what most of the government spends including Iraq.

The collapse of the industrial age for lack of oil to fuel it is a big problem. This is not a problem that can be solved by government, nor should it be. This crisis will be better handled by free people making decisions promoting their own survival, and not by the force of government continuing to plunder and control us. Government is force and has no business interfering in our economic lives.

[tomasleeman]

Most people have not heard about Peak oil. They don't understand the problem, my hope is to start a public dialoge and increase awarness.

[tomasleeman]

My point is subsidize the right thing not a boondoogal like ethanol. Just look at what the market thinks of the ethanol stocks. Most accept ADM are down 75% from their peaks look at AVR & PEIX with oil at all time highs these stocks have tanked.

[gazzyjeanne]

Government has no real way of knowing where to effectively put subsidies, so they are just as likely to make a bad decision and waste valuable, scarce resources. The market quickly corrects private bad choices. Government bad choices just keep going on like the Energizer Bunny.

As far as making more people aware, you are only shooting yourself in the foot, because more people are going to die in the next 50 years than survive and those with foreknowledge are more likely to make it.

[gazzyjeanne]

I think that the combination of the continuation of US domestic production decline, a peak oil related loss of most of oil imports between 2011 and 2020, and a continuation of the 3.5% yearly deterioration in EROEI will bring US oil consumption down in 2020 to 25% of what it will be in 2011. This is a huge problem and government will only make it worse. I don't even think the federal government will survive much less be in position to do anything.

[garouHH]

If I had the capital to do it, I would. I don't, so I can't. Smithian market capitalism fails when confronted with reality.

[mikestmars]

Another loser looking for five minutes of fame. Is there a question in there somewhere? Like most important people, time is a finite resouce, except for this guy...any wonder why?

[tomasleeman]

The question is this do any of these guys have the guts to tell the truth about oil. I'm not looking for a talking point or some obfuscation. Demand for oil is now above the worlds production capacity. All the big fields are in decline Cantell in Mexico is down 9% , Ghawar in Saudi arabia now has a 38% water injection. China & India's energy needs are growing 15% a year. Do you understand exponential growth? In 10 years the world will need 160 mil barrels a day while only producing 80 mil.

[tomasleeman]

Nice strategy, personal attack instead of a reasonable argument