The History of Economic Cycles

[canshin665]

Hello Thank you so much for the video. I'm studying economics by myself and the video helped a lot :-)

[jormoria]

dude,that is freaky,i got kodatrieff book on the long wave cycle,and also the profit magic of stock transaction timing by hurst....that is freeeeeaky

[bisbeejim1]

This was really good, thanks Ray.

[visla84]

could you list the books published by each author??

I am very interested in Alexander Chizhevsky

[artynz]

@visla84 Suggest that you do a search for each. There is a problem with Chizhevsky in that his work is published in Russian and French so that English only readers (like me) do not get the full picture.

[MakeMoneyBetting]

@visla84 an interesting book on these ideas is "The search for Gann's Master Time Factor". You can get it on Amazon

[DuctapePenguin]

Can you make a video on Welles Wilder Delta and Steve Copan who improved Delta into the Market Matrix?

Market Matrix is by far the best cycle methodology out there nailing cycle turns to the exact day.

[artynz]

@DuctapePenguin Sorry, I don't know anything about these things that you mention.

[Weatherlawyer]

Hi RTy

My research concerns the moon and weather and how it relates to earthquakes.

One easy correlation is the stuff leaving the USA at Cape Hatteras, High or Low pressure areas seem to impact somewhere on the Aleutians about 80 degrees distance on a great circle.

Tornado cells increase the magnitude of quakes to something in the region of 4 to 5 M. This checks out with National Storm Warning archives and NEIC quake list On the MetO Atlantic SSP charts too.

All archived online.

[artynz]

@Weatherlawyer The motion of the moon is so complex, that it makes many different cycles. The cycles in tides alone are very numerous. Earthquakes are certainly affected by tides in the body of the Earth, so the moon is the main factor.

I hadn't considered wind as a factor in earthquakes, but it makes sense. Winds even affect the rate of rotation of the earth to a a measurable extent.

Earth tides are complex because they interact with fault lines depending on the direction of stress.

[Entropy137]

This guy looks old enough to have seen more than one Kondratieff winter.

[artynz]

@Entropy137 Me! NO. I was born in 1947 well after the 1930s.

[cpsv2008]

Por favor en Castellano, mil gracias.

[ForTehNguyen]

the laws of economics are no different than the natural laws such as physics. For people to say that oh in the 1930s the economy wasnt as complex, thats just BS. Gravity was still the same it was in 1930s and in Zimbabwe

[artynz]

I agree.

[busrider85]

They are hugely different

[stevenhenson]

wow thank you for this ...

[Malthus0]

What about Hayek? He won a Nobel prize it after all.

[artynz]

Thanks for mentioning him. This is an oversight on my part. There is info on him in wikipedia for those that want to follow up. It does not mention him winning a Nobel prize, but does state that several Noble prize winners recognized him as the greatest economist.

[johnandrewadair]

Thank you mate. I have been studying patterns in commodity and stock markets for over 19 years. I have mostly studied the work of William Gann. Thank you for mentioning him. As Faraday stated, "Nothing is random in a universe controlled by mathematical law". People hate to believe that there are forces contolling us and the reality of fate.

[artynz]

Yes, people have a desire for the Universe to be different to what it is. That is the basis of all our suffering.

[lorax2013]

Thank you! Great information.

[dewey0hurst]

my name is dewey hurst

[artynz]

I do hope that you study cycles then. :-)

[blancspa]

Hi. I have come to research the economic cycles area recently (mainly Schumpeter`s theory). So far the problem is with statistical data for Kondratieff wave, especially for UK.

Second point is how funny is that people misinterpret cycles. A Greenspan using Schumpeter to justify free markets, where in fact use of derivatives would be according to Austrian economist a subject to regulation as a speculative excess.

Very interesting subject. I am writing dissertation about it. Let`s get in touch:)

[artynz]

Yes, you are welcome to contact me by email at ray(at)tomes(dot)biz

[CapitalistHolocaust]

One of the problems you may have in getting this information about cycles out to people is that the Professional Investor Class can only exploit others & profit from the cycles if they know about them & the population (or at very least the Amateur investor class) doesn't.

For instance, how can those who invest in property make a profit if everybody knows about the 18 year property cycle?

They wouldn't be able to find 'greater fools' to sell on to, if everybody knew the price was about to drop.

[CapitalistHolocaust]

The information needs to be suppressed (whilst at the same time taught to a specialised elite class - ie the educated elite) in order to continue the fraudulent redistribution of wealth from the ignorant to those in the know.

Look at the latest housing boom in UK & US, media perpetuated the lie that prices would continue to rise with 'new paradigm' type mantras & never once mentioned the existence of the 18 year cycle & the inevitable contraction of credit.

[CapitalistHolocaust]

Also; how can you stimulate the economy if people know there is a depression on the horizon?

If people are in fear of losing their jobs they will not spend & the economy slumps. The whole Capitalist system is dependent on people consuming & spending & so the masses need to remain ignorant for the system to work.

Of course a healthy economy isn't supposed to rise up & down in roller coaster cycles. It should rise steadily, but then the rich wouldn't be able to steal from & enslave the poor.

[readthepaper]

The capitalist economy is based upon savings; which is where capital comes from. Only Keynesian dolts think that spending fuels an economy. The "roller coaster" effect is caused by government interference, specifically by manipulating the interest rate through injections money and credit. In a capitalist system, all transactions are voluntary. The only people who steal anything and get away with it are the government.

[artynz]

Yes, inflation is theft. Economists advice keeps cycles running. It is like a person trying to stop a swing by pushing it towards the middle whenever it is at an extreme. That is how you keep a swing going, not how you stop it.

[artynz]

Why does the economy need stimulating. All attempts to stimulate economics result in later coming down just like from the sugar or drug induced high.

[Questfortruth86]

Yes, there are winners and losers, those who know, and those who don't know. It's their job to educate themselves.

[artynz]

Because the cycles are due to natural forces that are very powerful, they will not go away if people know about them, but they will reduce. At some point the rewards of trading are outweighed by the dangers. We could use tidal energy to generate power, but we would not stop the tides.

[CapitalistHolocaust]

There would not have been a speculative boom in housing, if ALL the people involved were fully cognizant of the fact that it was a de facto pyramid scheme, wherein many would be left with an overpriced property with no buyers at the end, once credit ran out.

Quite the contrary, for it to occur, the masses had to be convinced that the period of economic growth would continue indefinitely, kept ignorant of how an economy based on credit works & be given ridiculously cheap & easy credit.

[CapitalistHolocaust]

On top of this, they needed to be fed a constant stream of propaganda along the lines of "No more boom or bust" & "New economic paradigm" from politicians, "prices always go up" from property gurus & the vested interests in the media.

Also, Eddie George (former Governor of the Bank of England), has since admitted (before the treasury committee) that the BoE deliberately fuelled a consumer boom to boost house prices and personal debt so that the UK Plc could avoid recession.

[CapitalistHolocaust]

This admission can be viewed in the treasury committee minutes of evidence entitled "THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND: TEN YEARS ON" dated 20 March 2007, online at the UK Gov parliamentary website.

"We only had two alternative ways of sustaining demand and keeping the economy moving forward: One was public spending and the other was consumption."

"We knew that we were having to stimulate consumer spending....

[CapitalistHolocaust]

...we knew we had pushed it up to levels which couldn't possibly be sustained"

"If we had not done that the UK economy would have gone into recession just as has the United States."

"That pushed up house prices, it increased household debt..."

- E. George

Also, without Govt proxies (such as the BoE) keeping interest rates low & financial institutions being encouraged to take on sub-prime as markets saturated, I fail to see how such a boom could have occurred.

[artynz]

CapitalistHolocaust, I don't disagree about the general idea behind what you are saying. What I am adding to that is that even if people were better informed, that would diminish but not remove cycles.

[1GXG]

Cycles eh! eh! ...Cycles you an your mates wanna get a moped ...HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA...LLLOOOLL­LZZZ....

Nah seriously though,identifying economic patternation is the key to harvesting from otherwise seemingly unpredictable markets.

Good video with clear narration...Thanks

[llaoll]

thank you very much for making this video. i'm thrilled by all this knowledge you refer to, before this video, i only knew of Gann. my appreciations

[artynz]

Yes sorry, a wee slip on my part. Please see the entire video on the cause of the Kondratieff cycle though. Hope that makes up for it.

[PeterSodhi]

Missed out Kondratieff as we enter a massive Kondrateiff winter - that is a shame.

[klal1996]

Thanks for an interesting and informative video. Much appreciated.

[artynz]

Thank you.

[cyberspy034]

cool stuff