The DOW has already collapsed

[TheDigitalWeb]

Anyone know how or where to invest in oil?

[sa11ee]

John, what is your opinion on gold stocks but in particular the price of Lihir and Newcrest not rising to match golds very recent (record) highs? But in the latest drop in gold price, they seem to have fallen slightly. I know you are all about bullion but your opinions on this please? WD and keep the vids coming!

[richardsrevolution]

new way of doing things? I would bet on a cashless control grid based on credit. NWO style. The people with biggest guns will control resource dispersal. Probably by issuing credits for labor. All electronic. "Make sure you get your government issued credit card"(so they can track every purchase you make). Total Information Awareness. Fiat money creator's new system of control and slavery.

[ryeb00]

very interesting

quick question: why the log scale for the dow gold ratio?

[stellaconcepts]

its not a log scale.

its just ( DOW / GOLD ) - linear scale.

[ryeb00]

in the graph shown after 2 minutes, look at the y-axis. the values 20 and 21 are closer together than 7 and 8. That is characteristic of a log scale.

Most DOW/GOLD plots that I've seen use this scale. I've been trying to figure out why, other than the advantage that it allows you to see a linear trend, but on a log scale

[stellaconcepts]

your right... never picked that up!

so to answer your question - no reason!

gee it would look terribly bearish without it ;)

[ryeb00]

At 4:30, the graph also uses a log scale

I agree if the graph at 2:00 were on a linear scale, the decline from 12/06 to around the end of '08 would be a lot steeper (more bearish for the DOW).

There must be some logical reason for using the log scale. Perhaps you can research this and discuss it in your next video.

I appreciate what you are doing!

[xFIRSTMERITx]

Gold production peaked in 2001 and production continues to decline by 1.3% per year. This is the catalyst for for gold and why is has decoupled from the dollar. When the price gets high enough the reserves will be mined...It will end in tears.

[stellaconcepts]

unless at the top - you sell out and buy the next appreciating asset.

no-one in their right mind can expect gold to go up forever - i dont think anyone can argue that it will. but right now, we're in a bull market. bull markets can last many years. I think gold has 3-5 years left in it.

[xFIRSTMERITx]

He has a ad for or is a bullion dealer......Nothing more than a commercial if you were a bullion dealer would you not be cheering on this rally? As I said not saying it is not going to go a bit higher.....the story will end in tears you will be getting a lot less cash for you gold later.....safe investment for Americans to store in there homes is guns, ammo, alcohol, food, if your convinced we are going to go to a barter system and I'm not but if you are......seeds, fertilizer, cows, chickens..

[stellaconcepts]

i am not a bullion dealer... ive been hear nearly a year and only recently had my channel sponsored by the people I buy some of my silver from.

i dont disagree without about the other investments you provide... but gold and silver is a powerful investment ;)

[eternalduty]

Best investment is buying Soil and Seeds.

[tesskansas]

Those seeds in the soil need energy/fuel/and fertilier.

[comedytracker]

NWO will be pushed as a solution, just like every issue.

[richardmulroy]

Stocks are a much better investment long term than gold. Gold would need to be worth $5000 an ounce to make the same gains as common stocks since 1980

[AfterTheFox75]

With much more "quantitative easing," I think $5,000 is an easily obtainable number.

[jadcott]

Disingenuous argument - you're cherry picking the historical peak in gold. It's like saying the dow would need to be above 21000 to make the same gains as gold since Oct 2007.

Having said that, of course some stocks are going to make bigger gains than gold. Gold is a currency - accumulating it is a store of wealth, not a producer of wealth.

[tesskansas]

You must have a strong stomach Mr. richardmulroy. - I do not anymore.

I have a few mining stocks, some PG, and several international based mutual funds for equity and bonds. I have my eye on some bio-tech stocks, but I am in no hurry.

I include this to help establish that I am not just a gold/silver bug. Though, gold and silver definately help me sleep better.

[MrFlyPerfect]

This guy is an idiot. You lunatics continue to buy your gold and I'll continue to point and laugh. It's a fun game.

Before gold becomes a widespread currency, people will wake up and say "what the fuck do we use gold for? It's useless and shouldn't have any value" which will result in the collapse of the gold prices.

[stellaconcepts]

opps... someone forgot to jump on the metal train.

still time mate... if you run fast - only just leaving the station

[quezer0]

good stuff jon

[AfterTheFox75]

*pointing and laughing in a sad way at you* :' (

[4rcane]

The argument for gold is extremely obvious. Gold is money, store of wealth, unit of exchange. A better question is why do you have so much faith in the paper money you hold

[thirdcoastguy]

I heard last night that 8000 tons of gold has left the United States. The treasury has been looted. Bernanke, Geithner, and Obama are criminals.

[sa11ee]

So what about the fact the gain in USD is offset by the rise of the AUD (for now). Will the USD really fall that much to see a considerable profit for Australians?

[sa11ee]

gah, I meant the gain in gold in US dollars.

[mallamoozoo]

It seems that aussie dollar will be 1:1 with USD when gold hits US $1200.

But since there seems to be almost no gain in aussie dollars - why not just trade Forex and forget about GLD?

[sa11ee]

Yeah I thought about that, though knowing the USD will weaken what should I do if I want to invest aussie dollars?

[mallamoozoo]

I dont know- im no expert- I can see that gold and silver are good IF currencies collapse and there is hyperinflation and all that sort of worst case scenario stuff- but otherwise it seems gold is just a proxy for ForEx- with a lot of extra hassle (main one being the huge 5% spreads by dealers between buy and sell).

For aussie's- the ForEx is a killer- gold can go up 500% but it just means our currency will go up 500% - so it's pointless (unless you also hedge ForEx - so why not ONLY do that?)

[sa11ee]

That makes sense, are you an aussie yourself? Any site in particular you use and can recommend?

[mallamoozoo]

Yeah Im aussie - thats why I am so aware of this - everyone going on about gold making 30% gains this year - but the aussie dollar went up from 0.63 to 0.93 - almost cancelling it all out.

I asked the same question you are asking (about ForEx trading platforms etc) about 10 times on these You Tube gold-bug blogs - but its like a conspiracy of silence - no-one EVER wants to talk about it - it feels a bit like willful denial that there is no point owning gold when you can just trade ForEx.

[sa11ee]

I guess they are really set on these precious metals. It would be nice to get an opinion from some of the video uploaders on what they think about it. Surely they have knowledge on forex trading comparing to straight out investing in gold.

[mallamoozoo]

This guy Stella has many good vids - check his channel and you'll find a vid on hedging a PM position with a ForEx position.

Dont get me wrong - im keeping my gold - because its not yet certain that the GFC is over (maybe the liquidity crisis is over but the currency crisis isn't).

But from a trading point of view - it seems you may as well just be in ForEx.

(Anyway -

[slicardy1]

Good stuff. Thanks John.

[darryllddflying]

Great technical video! Most of us Americans are still sound asleep.

Obviously a lot of work and I couldn't agree more. It will be interesting to see where we end up going.

[mallamoozoo]

anyone got any ideas for a PM exit strategy if you forgot to hedge? (Now that the aussie dollar is back at 0.93 from 0.63 - it means there's been hardly any gain in aussie dollars. (So have PMs really gone up or is it just that USDI is sliding? In which case couldnt we have just made a ForEx trade back when we bought PM's?

Is there still some way to take advantage of the price movement in USD - like moving to the USA with your stash? (Not that u'd wanna live there - but just as an example)

[pollution2000]

There will be a famine in America because the value of the dollar will continue to erode which in turn will make the sellers of produce look elsewhere for sales.

[UnderseaCaveman]

Watch out, the Dow can be switched around to build a stronger case for higher prices (running with Gold).

The concerns will be expressed into a stronger DOW (with switching of stocks, revolving).

I'd be short Gold, long Dow at 9.2

[MAJESTIC10110]

9th November 2009 will be the mother of all crashes, as everyone for Gold dashes. Silver too its price does swell as paper money goes to hell.

Money multiplies half again and silver is more than gold in ten.

Bread is 4 then 6 then 10, mouths will feel the hunger then.

Keep your family safe from harm, silver coins work like a charm. Storing food is good for you as supermarkets raided too.

When man realises he controls the world through united mind and ways of old.

[toogood6996]

not another prediction ;) why do you say this date?

[CTOL1]

I have friends still in the market, afraid to pull out, I really feel badly for them, but "this nut job" ME can only hope they don't come knocking on my door looking for food Even my own sister wont even consider this is happening..... shes got a job and a good 401K she tells me.! Good Lord

[rocksiphone]

11/09/09 Gold is over $1100.00 after hours

[lizadfuel]

Looking at the charts there is no support for the dollar and it should continue to go down. Short term, I believe it to be around 76 - 74 and I wouldn't be surprised to see it spike temporarily higher. But I think it will be in the mid 50s 2-3 yrs from now and wouldn't be surprised to see it in the mid 30s. Peace

[AfterTheFox75]

Thanks for the all the hard work John. It's great to see the charts all put together like this. A nice clean, clear presentation.

Cheers!

[ray12970]

Thanks John !!!!!

[jimbobubbadj]

Goldman Sacks has complete control of the stock market, They are the stock market, the casino. In a casino the house wins in the long run. Goldman cannot be beat at their own game, the owners of the casino, the house. I simply don't play their game.

[GuildF40]

I wondered what you were busy at.

Best explanation to date of what when & how.

Xmas coming up for the Distraction !

F✬✬k I'm glad I glad I found this channel when I did.

Well done.

5✬✬✬✬✬'s

[artdeco101010]

Great video Jon - Thanks !

[vmpslr2]

the usa will never recover with the congress that we have now.writing hot checks like theres no tomorrow

[MrJohnnyrace]

And a federal reserve thats above the law. Yes

[trevormac77]

it's true, the US' fundamental problem is corruption. If you had good men like the founding fathers you could right this mess.

[SamuraiCommando]

One way to save the US, split it in 2. This country is polarized in its governmental philosophy. Split the socialists off from the union so they can have their own welfare state while the people who want to work and understand fundamental ethical values can succeed. Its time to cut the worm out of the apple.

[arran4]

Can you do more comparisons against other commodities (and a basket?)

[stellaconcepts]

they all look pretty similar... dow is losing purchasing power

[stellaconcepts]

yea i dont know how they'll do it - but they'll have to do something sooner or later!

[mainesprocket63]

John,

do you like any of the miners? If so, can you recommend a couple of silver and gold miners.

Great video and thanks for the info.

[stellaconcepts]

bob chapman is your man for info on the miners

[MrVegiita]

Great Video John. Obama's 1st phase of his healthcare bill has been passed, and will probably get approved overall. This is going to cost $1 trillion. That will probably have some impact on the dislocation of the gold and dollar relation.

[stellaconcepts]

well i think gold up and dollar down on that news... obviously... terrible news for americans that health bill.

[SamuraiCommando]

Well I really cant think of anything the government ever does that equals dollar up... I'm mentally preparing to move to either Canada, or South America. I just can't bring children into this web of lies.

[nextdimensions]

what part of south america are you considering?

[SamuraiCommando]

Costa Rica, Brazil, torn between isolationism or industrialism.

[nextdimensions]

right, I was thinking about Panama but the USD has a big play there

[solojam]

panama can possibly go back to the balboa, and leave USD behind

[mallamoozoo]

What about Argentina or Japan?

[SamuraiCommando]

I never considered Japan.  Too close to N Korea if I make a move its going to provide some long term sense of neutrality and safety. Argentina may not be bad but I havent been there so I cant say much other than what I read.

[mallamoozoo]

North and South Korea will someday reintegrate like East and West Germany- North Korea needs the money and South Korea needs young workers - they have the same aging population problem as japan and son there wont be enough young workers to support the retirees. So reintegrating will be a win win. (Might have to wait til Kim Jong Il kicks the bucket but it will eventually happen.)

Argentina seems to be the escape of choice ofr the US Corporate and political criminals - so must be something good.

[Y3rMawm]

Great vid as usual.

Trying to wrap my arms around how repatriation might occur. Since we don't produce anything except perhaps war, and regulations make any real wealth generation impossible ( i.e. can't mine gold, drill for oil), what do we make that could be purchased with those dollars.

All I can come up with is selling of huge swaths of productive land to current $ holders. Thoughts?

[stellaconcepts]

ABD: anything but dollar.

real-estate, shares and equities, other currencies, gold, silver etc etc.

[REDEMPTIONthreadz]

Crap! I wish I would not have bought PUT OPTIONS on the DOW... crazy how it's actually crashing and CALL OPTIONS would be the most profitable... it's like an oxy-moron, ONLY TRUE! BLASTIT! Good Vid, John. Great work, Buddy, as always...

[drutter]

I still think the charts are interesting and you're the expert not me, that's why I watch :)

5 stars as usual!

[drutter]

As for the dislocation, I believe the area you pointed out where gold is going up and the dollar is flat, is due to gold's fundamentals driving it higher, rather than the falling dollar. Yes, a falling dollar will boost the price of gold - that's simple math. But fundamentals also play a part in the value of commodities. Gold's fundamentals are huge now, with inflationary fears and India's huge purchase etc. That's why gold spiked there. Dislocation? I dunno.

[stellaconcepts]

yes it was golds fundamentals driving it higher... but whats good for gold is usually bad for the dollar... as in - if golds fundamentals improve - then the dollars fundamentals are weakening... normally.

[drutter]

I believe chart analysis works because other investors do the same things to determine if they should buy, sell, or wait. So a chart's patterns and signals are only as strong as the number of investors also viewing that chart. In this case, say the dow versus gold, how many investors do you think are using it? Not many. So the resistance and support lines are arbitrary at best. I would look to fundamentals, not chart analysis, when it comes to dow versus gold.

[stellaconcepts]

for sure - but it helps to paint a picture no?

[SamuraiCommando]

Thats why its so crazy to me to think this dream we all live in will unfold anytime soon.  While I realize it is all BS, if everyone else doesn't believe it then it could take a long time before its obvious. Secretly preparing in the background so not to wake the hive.....

[dx11101]

wouldnt it be out with the new and in with the old???

[stellaconcepts]

;) if you look far enough back yes ur right ;)

[Airave]

Your the Rockingest, John!

[Annihilate3275]

great vid! thank you for your hard work!

[GypsyHustle]

If you add bollinger bands to that chart John I wouldn't want to be long on gold right now.  I'll wait for it to pull back.

[kja5]

Hyperinflation leads to panic which leads to....the New World Order!

It will be a modern global feudalism of sorts.

=(

Waking up the sheeple should be viewed as a part time job for all of us.

[FatLibertarian]

Stellaconcepts, have you read Nouriel Roubini's article on this market leading to a massive globally co-ordinated fall of risky assets when the carry trade changes? it worries me because so many people are in gold and/or assets. Of course he said this because he didn't believe the dollar could "go to zero".

[stellaconcepts]

a superspike up in the dollar is possible. but it would be temporary and a chance to get more metal (if any was for sale).

the dollar has a better chance of going to zero than gold / silver ;)

[suzettespencer]

Superb follow-up to your other video. You dont see those kind of graphs in the fringe media. Hope you con't the excellent work. 5*

[amritsharma]

Great job with the video John. Thanks!

[shawnsent]

Gold sucks

[sizzlot]

Yes, gold sucks the power from the banksters who want to control us with fiat currency...

[trevormac77]

glad I bought gold last year thanks to advice from guys like Peter Schiff and Max Keiser.

[LisaJ4Liberty]

Yes, and charts and fundamentals aside, I think gold is still undervalued in relationship to consumer goods. For instance, is a case of liquor (which goes for about $120) equal in value to a tenth ounce of gold? Consider how common a case of liquor is, how many thousands of them are produced per day, vs. gold bullion. In my estimation, Gold should be worth at least 2000 an ounce right now when you look at it in relationship to consumer goods.

[trevormac77]

It's true, historically gold and silver had far greater purchasing power, but the crooked futures like the Comex have destroyed it's value. If the central banking franchise comes to an end look for gold and silver to return to their historic role as money and for their value to go way up.

[limitedplay]

so i guess you think that this discolation will continue?

if it does i think thats game, set match

[limitedplay]

why arent they talking about this

these charts clear up alot of confusion

[vinny1010]

Cheers mate!

[StandUp555]

Well done !

[hermbilliamherm18]

Thanks!

[halfasheep]

The false Dow rise comical.

[debtruth1]

excellent explanation and charts! thx!

[RainstormGB]

have u seen the new kitco index

[GovWillKillU]

i dont think its as permanent as you imply; just a trading trend/manipulation. dollar positive correllation with gold cannot be sustained imo.

[stellaconcepts]

its not so much about correlation as it is dislocation meaning people don't care what either one is doing.

[suzettespencer]

Never thought of it that way. Sounds bad in general.

[GovWillKillU]

healthcare bill passed. more debt expansion, trying to stay ahead of the debt beast. US gov't is in denial.

[stellaconcepts]

markets just opened for the week here in AU - dollar down - more than likely on that news.

[fatpius]

thanks John.

[ray12970]

Thanks

[wasteoftimer]

Interesting way of looking at the DOW.  We Americans need to wake up that we are losing our way of life.

[slobomotion]

Thanks, you've put together a concrete analysis of what I've been feeling for some time now. Greetings from France.

[TracyM1974]

Thanks for explaining dislocations. I never knew what that meant when Denninger spoke about it.

Excellent presentation John : )

[fal2grace]

jeez John.... amazing analysis. I haven't seen this discussed anywhere else. Thank you!

[jonah70757]

Nice Vid. I have a 100 year gold dow chart taped up near my desk to remind me of where we are ultimately heading somewhere below 5 between a ratio of 3 and possibly a negative number!

[Eraser7622]

It could never go negative.. only to a decimal.

[jonah70757]

Sure it could! For Example Gold 10000 Dow 8000. That would be negative on a Chart where par is 0!

[stellaconcepts]

na that would be just above zero (0.8 in your example).

Its impossible for it to go to zero priced in gold - unless all stocks traded on the dow go to zero.

it can't ever go negative ;)

[jonah70757]

I used wrong example the ratio can still go negative

[stellaconcepts]

even with gold at $10,000,000,000,000 and the dow at just 1 - thats still a positive ratio...

but i think we get the point each other is trying to make ;)

[jonah70757]

We are arguing semantics! On a chart with 1/1 being par anything less than par would be deemed as negative. In other words The Dow is worth less than Gold! In other words less than 1 ! Or Negative! Cheeze!

[stellaconcepts]

agree - this is a dumb conversation - sorry ;)

[jonah70757]

To metals nuts thats what we are! Best Wishes to you!

[stellaconcepts]

one thing is for sure - the gold/silver price cant go negative ;)

[jonah70757]

We Break 7 Gold Dow Ratio by March/April 2010

[lizadfuel]

Now it's every man for himself, for your Government will not look out for your financial or physical well being. The only way to protect yourself is precious metals for your wealth, exercise, eat healthy and have some form of personal protection for your physical well being. Peace

[PressForFreedom]

Good stuff Thanks!

[stealthpakfa]

id love to see a chart of the entire market value of the dow jones priced in gold.

i think the market value is around 15 trillion.

it might be a better indication.

because im not sure how much each point on the dow represents. what monetary value?

[Eraser7622]

Isn't each point essentially worth a (devaluing) US dollar? It must be in order to then compare the DJIA to the price, in greenbacks, of gold. So, currently as I understand it, one could "buy one share" of the DOW today with around 10oz of gold (or slightly less now).

[stealthpakfa]

u should have named this something like the DOW BEAR MARKET! u will get more viewers.

but great video mate.

[stellaconcepts]

good idea

[PeakedEarth]

great video. thank you,

[MarchHare2009]

Wonderful video.

[JOHNNYH8STHENWO]

Thank you. I love videos with charts.

[frizshizzle]

10364 is gap fill that's a good place to short with a stop above.

[sa11ee]

hey john, what are those other channels you mentioned earlier you said you like? And what else do you recommend is recommended reading/viewing?

[longltran]

thanks'

[LysSpooner]

beginnings of Zimbabwe-like markets? thanks again John

[stellaconcepts]

definately the beginnings of such a market.

[ILovelisanova]

how do you get these charts priced in metal?

[stellaconcepts]

i use stockcharts (d o t) com

input say, the dow priced in gold as:

$INDU/$GOLD

[Hendo1974]

I was not surprised, took long enough!

[stellaconcepts]

well your right about that.

technically (charting wise) it should have occured around the 25th... but I'll take it sooner for sure :)

[mejt223]

first!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!