Peak Oil Update - July/August 2009

[jjstoney1]

Peak oil already will destroy 5 billion of the world's population by simple mathematics and the law of thermodynamics. All the other talk of "the economy" is moot. The economy=energy. Not money, gold, nor products, etc. Without sufficient hydrocarbon energy our planet must go back to the amount of sunlight that humans can capture per year to support our species. What is really developed that can realistically do that at this time?

[zthustra]

@jjstoney1

One of the big reasons I dwell on the monetary system and the economy is because they monetary and fiscal problems are getting in the way of other reforms needed to mitigate the comming problems that are all energy and resource related.

[MarkProffitt]

WHY is oil production declining? Efficiency has been increasing and can increase to double what it is today. There is no reason to pump crude oil is the refining capacity does not exist to turn into usable products. As you correctly pointed out, the financial system drastically effect oil production. All of these factors could have been predicted and it is equally if not more likely the declines in production are from those and not a shortage of real supply.

[manderssteve]

Fusion power as a practicle souce of energy is science fiction. Hydrogen is not a fuel any more than a car battery. Its low density makes it difficult to cary around too. It is expensive compared to other fuels. We dont need any technological breakthough to double the fuel efficience of cars. Check out the new VW diesel, 5.2 l/100km, 50 mpg, and peppy. Wow. Diesels have been around 100 years. Human nature is the real problem, not technology.

[manderssteve]

Peak oil is a plateau, no surprise, nothing goes very smooth either, it is a jagged peak. This confused some people that expect it to look like ^ instead of /""\ . I check the EIA data waiting for the latest data they say will be out early June for the first quarter 2010. I believe we are at the tipping point, but we need solid data. I dont guess. The fact that we are at a plateau, suggest that the time is soon.

[manderssteve]

You put it in simple terms, it told the story, keep telling it. Things are about to unravel when we go past peak, and soon.

[zthustra]

@manderssteve

I'm wondering how long we can stay in the plateau. Production has been roughly flat for six years now.

[johnsenkenn]

@zthustra

So your prediction is that now we are past peak oil, I bet you have predicted it to happen before ? ( and you will predict it to happen again when it does not happen now ) you know Linsey William.....is he an fantast ? the oil is of biotic origin ? how is that possible, you know the Russians meaning about this. 

[zthustra]

@johnsenkenn

I have made no such predictions about our being past peak and have in fact said that we will only know we are past peak when we see it behind us. What I have stated is that production appears to have plateaued and that we have no idea how long we will be in plateau before going past peak. You do not need an IQ greater than 70 or 80 to see that production has been flat for about 5 years now.

[johnsenkenn]

@zthustra

Well, if 70 IQ is all what it take, to see that. What does it take to see the production is what is needed. You don't produce more than needed, do you. If the production drops because of this depression, it don't mean it have peaked, does it.

[zthustra]

@johnsenkenn

What you just said is technically correct, but what you implied is something I don't think even you believe. If demand drops, production will follow. Are you imagining that billions of humans on the planet earth do NOT want the benefits that they could have if they had oil? They prefer walking and like cooking over dung? Or has a new source energy been discover that I haven't noticed yet? Frédéric Bastiat suggested that human wants were unlimited and I agree.

[zthustra]

@zthustra

It isn't just that production has been flat for five years. And I don't think you should confuse me with the real experts like Matthew Simmons, Robert Hirsch, Colin Campbell and Richard Heinberg. What they say is more more important than anything that I say. I believe them. I am watching the trend lines and throwing in my two cents. What would you need to be convinced? An official report to the DOE by experts in the field? Maybe you will only believe it ten years after it is past?

[johnsenkenn]

@zthustra

It is reasonable to assume from the point we stand, that the demand for oil will increase unless the west goes belly up, like Russia or Rome. Because of the Chinese India and whoever. But that was not the point, your point was that the production had been flat for some years, ergo the production have peaked. That cannot be so, the prices are falling......and that cannot happening if the production is below the demand. So this flat production and falling prices must simply be no deman

[zthustra]

@johnsenkenn

Oil production is not "past peak" until it begins its long decline. We might think it peaked in Aug 2008, but responsible and knowledgeable people will always say things like "probably peaked" and won't say we are past peak until it actually happens. Production could stay flat much longer than many expect and we could see a new peak before going over the edge.

[johnsenkenn]

@zthustra

What I understand you are saying we are in peak oil right now, and so have people done since 1927. And if you keep claiming the peak oil is here, every 5 - 10 years, you might some day be right, but not for now.

[zthustra]

@johnsenkenn

I don't think you understand peak oil economic theory ... and, I do mean that in the best way. I can't explain in it 500 char, so you'll have to look for it elsewhere if you think it is worth your time. Maybe I will take a stab at explaining unsatisfied demand and price moves. I'm reluctant to do that because I really don't feel that I am terribly well qualified to dive into that level of explaination. Look for the video and please comment when it is out.

[johnsenkenn]

@zthustra

I don't understand economy, do you understand economy, what's so difficult to understand. If the supply is less than demand, the price goes up....no. The price is falling so the demand and supply are about where it should be, or even a bit oversupplied. So the flat oil production got nothing to do with peak oil, So far the peak oil is a scam, should there ever be ( and when ) a enegy supply problem, I don't know, but it is not for the moment. The peak oil is a hype.

[SatoTM3]

-mean production- ?

ur video is too long to dumb and to boring to watch

im going to assume you think that oil isnt gonna end

and therefor you are a stupid uneducated fuck

but ur american; u cant help it

[zthustra]

@SatoTM3

Thank you for your thoughtful critic. You are obviously the blossum of well-educated scholarly viewers and we all appreciate the value of your input on this subject.

[absentmindedprof]

IMHO the long-term answer to our energy problem remains fusion energy. We know how to start a fusion reaction. We just need to find effective ways to control it, so that we can build fusion power stations to replace coal, oil, and uranium fueled power stations. The sooner we begin investing seriously in this technology, the sooner we will have the energy source to last for centuries, not decades.

[TerraPosse]

We do already have a fusion power plant that can provide us with all the energy we could possibly need should we choose to utilise it. It's called the Sun.

It is in a safe enough distance as to not endanger us (overly), is a proven design that has been running reliably for much longer then we have been around to mess anything up and to top it all it's safe from any terrorist threats too. Problem solved. 8)

[zthustra]

@TerraPosse Solar is what we use when we use fossil fuel. It took millions of years to store all that solar energy and only a century to consume the most accessible half of all that solar power. IMO capturing solar in the form of wind, wave, PV, passive solar and bio-fuel just cant satisfy our massive populations endless hunger for cheap energy. Also, solar is no answer for replacement of petro-chemicals and liquid fuels.

[zthustra]

@absentmindedprof As I understand it, the big problem with nuclear is the EROI and carbon footprint for nuclear are no better than coal. Also, there is a peak-uranium problem not far down the road. The short-term future of nuclear is that we will use stocks from disarmament and larger reserves of uranium still remain in places like Kazakhstan and nearby, politically unstable nations.

[absentmindedprof]

@zthustra There are lots of problems that make uranium/plutonium fission reactors an impracftical option. I'm talking about fussion using duterium. (The hydrogen isotope that has one proton and one neutron in their nucleii.) We already know how to use lasers to initiate the fusion reaction. What needs to be done now is to study how to control the reaction so that we can harness the energy released by it.

[zthustra]

@absentmindedprof My apologies, I knew this but didn't read the comment properly. I guess I'm primed for the traditional nuclear power is the answer post.

There is still one big problem and it is faced by almost all alternative energy solutions. They are still in development with no proven and/or cost-effective solutions ready for use.

Oil is past peak and in a decade we will be suffering from declining production accompanied by growing demand with no alternative solutions in actual use.

[Davideeinkl]

Excellent video, I'd be interested to hear about what the author thinks for Man Made Global Warming too.

If we're running out of oil, why can't we start mining coal again (there is a lot more of it) and then convert the coal into oil like South Africa used to. I think it's possible to change coal to oil for around $40 per barrel.

[zthustra]

Coal is a finite resource too and mining coal is destructive to the environment that we need to live in. We will use more coal in the future but it will not be such an economical source of oil. It will be in such high deman as coal that nobody is going to waste time and money refining more than a small amount of oil from it. JMO

Visit my website and calculate for yourself how many years are left for coal.

[Jacobrester]

@Davideeinkl You are correct about turning coal into oil......and the USA has 25% of all known coal reserves

[zthustra]

How do I say this?

Have you researched the process that converts coal to oil? How much energy is needed to make oil from coal? How much energy do you then get from the oil? This is called Energy Retrun On Investment (EROI).

How about the environment issue? How of the coal can actually extracted without displacing cities and destroying farmland? How much of the coal is technically unavailable?

Enjoy your research.

[Jacobrester]

@zthustra I am somewhat familiar with the coal to oil process as I know the Germans made use of the Fischer Tropff process during WW II era. The amount of energy needed is minmal compared to other forms, such as oil shale to oil or oil sands to oil. Im not so sure there is a massive environmental issue, it all depends on who you believe, and we now know the global warming crowd has been lying about many of their claims.

[Katrolis]

It's January right now, oil & gas prices are going up! This is the time of year when prices always go down, not up. I predict gas will be over $4.00/gal summer 2010. Our economy is going to implode and people will have a harder time buying food and paying for gas. We are going to have to learn how to walk places... what do you think? Life in the US is going to change big-time.

[absentmindedprof]

The story related to the oil peak that I haven't seen discussed much is how the world will handle the lack of the petrochemicals we've all come to rely on over the years. Plastics, synthetic rubber, fabrics, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, solvents, lubricants, and pesticides are just a few examples off the top of my head that rely largely or totally on petrochemicals. In the high tech world of the industrial nations energy replacement is not the only problem raised by the oil peak.

[zthustra]

I recently saw something suggesting that non-traditional bio-oil sources like algae might be profitable if they would focus on non-feul applications.

It's funny but I think the government could actually play a meaningful role if it would mandate non-crude oil sources for these non-fuel items.

I don't see the government every playing a meaningfu roll in this area though. It is a clueless pawn of capitalism.

[absentmindedprof]

So true. If the current government attitude towards new energy sources was prevelent back in the late 19th, early 20th Centuries, we'd still be lighting our homes with kerosene lamps and heating our homes with pete stoves.

[zthustra]

We'll be wishing that we had kerosene and peat before I'm dead and gone!

Just thought of a creative application for that feces I will not be able to flush when the water isn't available.

[chan0chap]

why dont governments invest in overunity technologies?

thers more ppl figuring out how to run their cars on water,or creating magnet motors on youtube than actual government research centers.

or will they bring these out when they are 100% sure all the oil is run out and they cant base the dollar on petrol anymore?

[zthustra]

I don't want to burst your bubble, but all the technology you described is poo poo.

Re: Magnets - these are called dynemos and they have been around since WWII but they take more energy than they give.

Re: Water - it takes more energy to split off the hydrogen and oxygen than you get when they recombine.

We desperately want to believe there is technology out there to save us, but I'm afraid there isn't. At least I'm unaware of it.

[chan0chap]

in a dc motor you dont use the electricity for energy your just creating an artificial magnet on a coil. the energy comes from the magnets itself.

if you take normal magnets and placing them in a way that you would create a vortex then place another magnet in that vortex you can get energy. ive seen it my self on youtube it works

for example in a rodin coil you create a vortex in its magnetic field using electricity then placing a normal magnet inside and cause it to spin, its the same thing.

[zthustra]

I know how persuasive and convincing the material on this is. You just need to put as much effort into discovering the views of people who know a great deal more, solid scientists and engineers.

Example, there is no such thing as magnetic "energy", what you are referring to is a "field". Knowledgable scientists understand this, but lay people miss it. Another key word associated with magnets is "force". All "energy" comes from sources other than the magnet and must overcome resistance.

[wkjohnston]

hmm, maybe ask yourself this question - if it were that easy, why did GM and Chrysler choose to go down the drain instead of just using these 'easy' technologies to make great profits? answer - the technologies just don't work as advertised.

[nota2cdtime]

the association of peak oil is a good, current resource. But, surprise, not highly publicized!

[PistolStar2]

What will come will come...and we will have to meet it when it does

[Stan1208]

I believe that by late 2011, we will see a huge spike in gas prices. 2010 should be the last stable year we have.

[anglitoestebancito]

I do not even thing 2010 will be stable!

[zthustra]

Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I think most of the economic hardship we are now experiencing is due to the inevitable crash of the debt-based money system and the irresponsible behavior of the money-masters.

It looks like there is a little economic recovery in the short term but I think we are already past peak.

We aren't feeing the worst of it because there is so much waste that can be cut before we start cutting essentials AND the economic downturn has destroyed some demand.

[KilonBerlin]

What I mean... the dropping production is "wanted", the stocks are still on a very very high level. There have been found alot of oil 2007 - 2009 on the other hand.

Big reserves that weren't expected to be found. Especially in Brazil, Africa (Ghana and others). Mexico also seems to have much bigger deep-sea oil than expected first. Venezuelas Reserves increased too.

I think we don't need to worry about oil shortage over the next years, and high prices are because of speculants...

[zthustra]

Your points are all very reasonable, but ...

When the prive was very high in 2008 OPEC was saying things like they could and would increase production but there was no demand. They were point ot high stocks of oil.

What is really happening? Saudi Arabai, at least, is playing out. They have more oil to sell but it is sour crude and rhere is no dmand for it.

Re discoveries - check the numbers. Discoveries were higher than expected but lower than consumption, a net loss.

[jimbobubbadj]

Kilon, are you kidding? The Cantarell oil field production is plummeting. In 2006 it was producing 2.1 million b/d of oil. Now it is barely above 500,000 b/d of oil. Are you aware of what has happened in the North Sea? The USA peaked in 1970. Please do more research.

[KilonBerlin]

@jimbobubbadj

Who is talking about Cantarell? I know the dates... but Gulf of Mexico = only Cantarell? North Sea = only Brent ?? There are other fields in the gulf of mexico (on Mexican side) that are going up with production and there is still a potential there.

But you are right, Mexico isn't the best case, maybe they can hold their production levels near 3mb/d.

Russia of course even didn't REALLY start to do off-shore except some projects to get experience.

[jmallton]

Peak Oil does NOT say there is no oil .......I didnt fully understand what this phenomenon was until I listened to men in the industry.....such as T Boone Pickens or Mathew Harris.........Peak Oil says that the large majority of easily obtainable high grade oil is almost gone....what remains is is a lower grade more difficult to produce oil....like the sands in Alberta Canada...because of the difficulty in producing this low grade oil it will eventually not meet demand....we are almost there now

[KilonBerlin]

@jmallton I know what peak oil is. It's just a drop of production. That's the advantage from oil compared with gas. Gas production don't has this peak and slowly going down.

Peak Oil doesn't say anything about easy oil or something, it's the moment with the highest oil production ever, no matter if it is cheap or expensive oil. That's why some people are talking of a "conventantional peak-oil" and a real peak-oil. Conventional Peak-Oil might have been already...

[KilonBerlin]

Conventional? Sorry my English is not the best... But I hope you know what I mean, the most important question for "peak-oil" is... does the OPEC tell the truth? They are giving us almost the same numbers for over 20 years now. Every year the same reserves, while some of them produced billions of barrels each year. That's impossible.

They lie or they already took in reserves that could be possible with future technology. On the other Side the US-Reserves are too low.

[KilonBerlin]

The USA have reserves that last for ~10 years of production and that for longer than 10 years now. Because they only call "reserves" as oil that is in a producing field.

Russia in my opinion is the most important country. It's top secret to tell the "real" reserves that Russia has and you can go to jail for that in Russia if you are a Insider.

Russia got much more oil than the know now. Antartica and Greenland will be interesting too.

[KilonBerlin]

@jimbobubbadj

I think biggest potential is in africa offshore. But the biggest problem in my eyes is that the most oil is in difficult regions.

They don't have the know-how, I don't know why they just don't sign contracts with western companys, maybe because they don't want to share.

But in some OPEC-Regions, especially iraq and so on, the oil rigs are from the 30's or so.

I believe in Peak Oil, but not before 2017-2020. I believe a peak demand will come before.

[zthustra]

Traditional, on-shore oil drilling is really cheap stuff, especially if your rigs were paid for 20-30 years ago and they are still producing. Seems like I've seen $7 per barrel is the break even point. Saudi Arabia can't do that even with on-shore because there entire national budget comes out of oil, road, schools, hospitals, water, fire departments, everything.

The breakeven on off-sfhore and nontraditional oil like the tar sands is more like $65-$75. If you know better, let me know.

[jimbobubbadj]

Kilon, sorry for the strong response, thanks for your civil response. Because of the economy you may be correct as people will over time not be able to afford the oil, peak demand. Trying to predict exactly what year peak will/has occurred is almost impossible.

[KilonBerlin]

I didn't watch the whole video, I can't understand it soo good anyway I guess. But 2008 isn't the peak oil year... Sure 2009 will have a smaller production than 2008.

But this is wanted, the OPEC reduced its production, and so did some others because of the extreme low prices at the beginning of this year. Demand was and is still low, only China, India and so on have an growth again, but even demand in China did fall for a short period in the financial crisis.

[valtraboy5]

Thank you for this. I saw this graph a few days ago and couldnt make head nor tail of it but i get it now that you have explained it. Anymore new info would be appreciated.

[scott76252]

@ 85mil bbl/day you could fill 64,909,090 fifty-five gallon steel drums

(85,000,000 x 42gal) / 55gal = 64,9090,090

those drums are 3 feet long. If you lay them end to end you'd make a pipeline encircling the earth 1 1/2 times every day.

(36,880 x 3) / 5280 feet = 36,880 miles long

in a year's time you'd encircle the earth 540 times

(36,880 x 365days) / 24,901 miles = 540

[scott76252]

And the oil flowing through this pipeline every day (every 24 hours) would be traveling at twice the speed of sound (768mph):

(36,880 / 24hrs) / 768mph = 2....mach 2.

Are we really going to replace even have that volume with bio fuels?

[zthustra]

I have some new graphs that came out yesterday. I need to share them. One is crude, natural gass liquids and biofuels. Biofuels are no more than a sliver. Biofuels CAN'T replace crude oil.

[zthustra]

The world sure consumes a lot of oil every day!

I wonder what would happen if one day there was only 80 million barrels available? Or 75 million barrels?

Who wouldn't get their daily ration? Would some people get mad and use armies to get the oil they need?

Just wondering?

[ALP5050]

Great video, however I am curious as to where you obtained your first graph which showed production for the last couple of years. It showed production in the lows 70 millions of barrles a day. However every other source I have geard/seen says production has been in the mid 80 million mark per day. Just wondering!

[zthustra]

That is an AWESOME observation!

Charts and graphs are all over the place and the main reason is that they are measuring different things. Hubbert's predictions were for conventional CRUDE OIL extraction. Most peak oil predictions are for CRUDE OIL + NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS. The charts in the 80 mbd range include OIL FROM ALL SOURCES including biofuels, tar sands and natural gas. The first chart is conventional CRUDE OIL only.

Sorry about the CAPS, not shouting, just emphasizing words/phrases.

[ALP5050]

Ah I forgot that it includes other non -conventional sources as well. That is a very interesting graph then I have not seen one that shows conventional oil production, especially one that is up to date. I do believe the peak of production has come and gone unfortunately...

[iampolitician]

I'd like to hear his Robert DeNiro impression!

[mixnmatchable]

Hi Zthustra. Thankyou for this post. I've been watching this issue since about 2004 when I first learnt about it. There is no doubt that a growing number of oil producing regions across the planet are going into decline (just look at the North Sea and Cantarell as examples). So peak oil is a growing reality. The question is when this whole issue becomes global (the earth experiences peak oil instead of individual regions). Its a matter of time. Take care dude.

[antihostile]

Jesus Christ, get to the point!!!

[MrCropper]

Production dropped after May 2008 because the economy slowed, not because world oil production has peaked forever. Sheesh.

[zthustra]

Whose economy? The American's? The Chinese? India? Europe? The whole world?

Cause vs effect question? Did the economy fall off beause of competition for flat oil supplies? Did oil extraction rates fall because world-wide demand was down?

[dreamthinker79]

thanks for the update. I see the plane is still crashing into the mountain

[rbtpugh]

zthustra, thank you. I read that report a few days ago. You're explanation brought it to life, thanks!

[flamifer]

zthustra, well done. Or should I call you Casandra? We are sitting on a sinking luxury liner hoping that it will hold on a while longer. We do not want to go into the rescue boats because we fear the dark and insecure future and also because it is so much more cosy as it is now.

The aged selfish masters of the world want to rule just a little bit longer, or perhaps, they think, if they are lucky they will die before all goes down the drain.

You can not image how fragile our economies are.

[zthustra]

I wish Casandra would do some more videos. She's awesome! Sex appeal and an incredibly well-done and intelligent presentation.

I supposer her vids are so good that they will keep going around as long as there's a YouTube.

[boundtogetdown]

if we are going to go for the heavy sour stuff and the tar sands then we are going to have to figure out a way to run our engines on asphalt

[zthustra]

It's funny, but when you reaview government papers on energy for the future, they recognize that oil production will drop, althought they thinklater rather than sooner.

All of the drop, plus all of the increase in demand is supposed to come from new discoveries, alternate fuels and unconventional sources, like thick oil (tar).

The technology doesn't exist to get that stuff from a wellhead to a gas tank and they are only speculating that it will in the future.

[johnycannuk]

Have you seen Chis Martonsen's "Crash Course" set of videos?

Its a lot bigger than just peak oil...toss in debt based fiat money and a debt ridden economy and the US (indeed most of the West) is headed for disaster.

[zthustra]

Amen!

Yes, I have the Crash Course playlisted on my channel. Also, I was able to download teh entire program with a bit torrent downloader.

It gets very difficult to even open your mouth abotu something related to limits of growth, like overpopulation, reseource depleation, pollution, debt-based money, etc., in a 10-minute video because all of the issues are so interconnected.

[AncientAtheist]

Human nature tells me that we are likely to make the true changes we need only after a several (and deadly) upheaval. The giant corporations and banks of the world are entrenched in the current economic model and will not release control nor change methods until its too late for a peaceful transition. That is the tragedy of all of this - that cognizant, intelligent creatures with the ability to plan ahead - won't.

[AncientAtheist]

"severe"

[roentgen571]

It's the tragic thing about environmental problems...the countries that are most able to do something about it aren't going to because they're also the richest countries with the most powerful militaries and advanced technologies, and will be the last to really feel the pinch.

[theatheistguy]

I may have to watch this a few times to take it all in, but thanks.

[zthustra]

Visit the links in comments. There is more explaination with the graphs than I can provide in the video and they are much easier to review.