Shocks, Shortages, Scenarios - Planning a Post-Oil Future

[microscaleideas]

Think Small scale. For example if you live in a cold climate and the power goes down for a day or two. A good thermal sleeping bag (good to -25) and a winter hat will provide you with plenty of warmth and a good night sleep. Many people panic over the thought of keeping a 3000 sq. foot home toasty warm. You can survive a black out in the middle of winter with an investment $70 will keep your body warm, which is all that really matters.

[symmetry08]

natural earth sustainable human capacity had diminished bellow a billion already and going down.

[boundtogetdown]

many humans live differently from other animals lets see if we can figure this one out

[denizaks14]

weve made almost everything we use dependant on oil. It's gonna get very ugly.

[MrThefutureisnotset]

no fate, the future is not set

[bobbygnosis]

In order for us to get through the very bad time ahead of us we need to understand a few things - we shouldn't let things continue or stop based on sentimentality. Doing good is good. Not trashing the planet is good. Not trashing the planet because of sentimentality is ridiculous. You don't need Al-Gore-style propaganda to do good. All you need to do is think, "Hey, I think destroying the environment is bad and I don't want my kids to starve."

Don't mean to sound harsh. I feel strongly is all

[peakmoment]

Oh, I agree with you fully: we must choose from the ethical standpoint, not sentiment. Life will continue, but we will have been responsible for the extinctions of many species: I find that abhorrent. Others have an intrinsic right to live, and we're snuffing that out. For me, the way to think is more like "destroying the environment is burning the platform we're standing on." We die, and a lot of others are dying while we stand on this platform.

[bobbygnosis]

I hope not to sound too silly in what I'm about to say, but it seems as though we're both on the same page and I, for whatever reason, latched onto some esoteric philosophical point that is only applicable in how it can be used to manipulate people. This video does not seem to be doing that and so my - in restrospect - odd thought seems ridiculous.

We both agree. We both seem to be pursueing, roughly, the same lines of reasoning. My apologies for any misunderstanding.

Peace.

[peakmoment]

No apologies needed. I have appreciated your thoughtful, and obviously deeply caring response. The world is a better place because of the knowledge (gnosis) you seek. Thank you so much for watching Peak Moment TV.

We will know Peace when we no longer exploit earth and others.

[bobbygnosis]

If we make this planet uninhabitable and we die then we die. WE die. The rest of life will continue. It will have to go through some pains to do so, but life has been very good at dodging death and I expect it will continue to do so. I still come back to the ethical implications of what we're doing. I don't care about sentimentality about foxes and beautiful sunsets. They'll be around long after we die. Ethics. Not sentimentality. We have a huge effort to go through in the very near future.

[bobbygnosis]

P.S. I'm totally in love with this chick. She's mentioning things like what people are going to do. The human reaction will be what determins large scale decision making. It is very important to think about what you will do in reaction not just to energy, but to people's actions when that energy runs out.

[bobbygnosis]

Always remember: we may die, but the planet will get along just fine without us.

The only problem here is that it would be really fucked up if we didn't do anything knowing full well that our children will starve because of our actions. Mostly I'm concerned with the ethical implications of doing nothing. Letting people starve is kinda messed up and I think we should be using our energy for NOT LETTING our children starve due to our actions.

Good luck to us.

Peace.

[peakmoment]

Re: "The planet will get along just fine without us." As Derrick Jensen says, "this culture is killing the planet." We've taken over 40% or more of the land base for human use -- causing species to go extinct -- dead zones in the ocean -- floating continents of plastic -- heavy pollution. I don't think the planet is getting along fine -- because of us.

[bobbygnosis]

I agree that we've done significant damage. I will not disagree with that. If you look at fossil records there are "die-offs" that are much worse than what we're going through. Will the planet survive? Using fossil records as a comparison, yes. Without question. Will it survive without us? Yes, without question.

The question that I think is important is what will we do about who we leave behind. Humans won't survive the new Earth we're creating. Earth will be fine. Humans won't.

Peace.

[peakmoment]

I agree with you on the huge die-offs (though the current one is the only die-off caused by one species). And that Earth will survive.

But how much of life will survive, and at what level? The rich biodiversity that's going extinct, the ecosystems destroyed by logging, mining, farming? I expect cockroaches will survive just fine. But already the large mammals and many amphibians and some ecosystems are almost decimated or desertified.

I guess my bias is for life, not just a planet.

[bobbygnosis]

To be as clear as possible, I understand and agree that human activity has, is and will continue to wreak havoc on plants, animals, ecosystems, habitats and everything else that isn't human-derived. We ought to be more careful in our handling of the planet's . . life blood. We are a part of that life blood and we treat it like we are better than the rest of life on the basis that we have "sentience." If we make this planet uninhabitable for us - we die.

[polypus74]

@peakmoment "how much life will survive"? probably not a great deal in the increasingly likely event that we manage to damage the earth to the point that we kill ourselves off. but no matter, in at most 500 million years, the earth will have rebounded with an abundance of new life forms, as it always does after a die-off.

[peakmoment]

I've tended to think as you do, and hope that we humans don't overbalance the systems/irradiate so thoroughly that earth becomes inhospitable to life. I expect it'll be no problem for the bacteria and viruses and maybe the insects, who have longevity and mutate quickly. But oh, so many beautiful life forms whose loss we have already hastened.

[djgbroughton07]

I have no worries for this problem . I believe there are many technologies coming on stream to power the world. But at the same time I garden to produce food . I more do it for the freshness of the produce than the peak oil side of things. Unfortunately I feel the way Mss Quinn discribes the scenerio of the imminent of having reduced supplies of oil rather scary for people that are not prepared also her discription is rather Mad max. . All i say start to prepare for the worst

[terrythomas1978]

Us "Indians" don't need power or oil and neither do you...we actually you do. You made the weather and now here comes the storm. You better learn to live without like us...its really a much happier way to live anyway. Even the old ones have no power and there's frickin ice and snow everywhere. I wonder how, huh? So old and in the bush. Maybe faith....

[HALEYSABAI]

in my opinion, every American born after 1980 are,by default, socially fragmented and utterly impotent in even comprehending the issues, let alone 'getting together' on any kind of common ground with their generation without killing each other. Coming events case a shadow....a dark age on the horizon.

[ya19375]

remember, help yourself and help someone else.

[ya19375]

in maine we had a big ice storm in 1998. some would have thought we would have been in anarchy, but because of the small town connected community of maine, we made it through without much trouble. help

[johntaka]

so.. low $40 high $145 average (40+145)/2=92.5 right ? now,crude price seems stay much longer on low than when its high. at least 3 times longer. so a bit of adjustment will make it like 40x(3/4) + 145x(1/4)=30+36= $66 my bottom line is , human being has got survival instinct, oil price WON'T STAY ridiculouslly High.

[KARStarla]

One thing I dont understand and no one seems to adress this no matter where I look, theres but a handful of people with their homes paid off in this nation and most of them are elderly a majority of which cant even fend for themselves. During an econmic collapse they take everyones home, so even if you have a garden or whatever the foreclosure vultures come & because of unjust laws an zoning the homeless are asked to leave everywhere theres no place to set up this lifestyle, Id LOVE TO but HOW?

[peakmoment]

Perhaps the elderly or others with homes and land may want to team up with younger people who can work the land--build gardens, etc. -- in exchange for a place to live and a possible interest in buying that property through sweat equity (work).

[dinosaurtattoo]

What if the elderly end up outliving the young?

[bluzy25]

it would be better to do a interview in room instead of a lobby as background noise makes it hard to follow the conversation.

[peakmoment]

You're right. We might try using lavalier mics on both of us, which will help cut down the room sound. It's not always easy to scare up an empty room at a conference. We'll keep your suggestion in mind--thanks.

[johntaka]

i think we don't need to worry about peak oil cos' economy is like shrinking and demand for oil is fizzling out .

oil is like $45 a barrel and oil won't go over $60 a barrel anymore.

cheap oil 4ever and ever and ever !!

[bluzy25]

you've been smoking something good! Cause oil is going back up this summer!

[johntaka]

on what basis ???

[peakmoment]

The fundamentals: supply and demand. Prices are down now because of deleveraging (people selling off assets to pay their debts) and demand destruction (the global depression). But even with reduced demand and lower prices, oil is a finite resource. As demand picks up again in a few years, the prices will shoot right up...on a resource getting more expensive to produce 'cuz the cheap & easy oil is gone.

[johntaka]

Matt simmons was wrong that he predicted crude to go $200 a barrel .he did not see resistance.ppl simply wont use as much oil as when they were cheap.ppl need to survive.

ok .oil will go up sooner or later,but as soon as it hit something like $140 a barrel,

demand destruction starts again and price falls....

[KARStarla]

Cant agree more about the oil

[KARStarla]

Lindsey Williams predicted the $4 a gallon gas then predicted it would go down under $50 a barrel for around 6 months but also added we would be praying for $4 a gallon gas soon afterward, hes been right on every prediction even telling folks of oil in Indonesia 2 weeks before it hit mainstream news

[ancalagon12321]

It's so maddening that we can see this overwhelming crisis descending on our civilisation, in just a few years' time, and yet nothing is happening.

It isn't in the news, most people aren't talking about it, no significant preparations are underway, and our governments are too craven, short-sighted and deluded to even acknowledge the problem.

[johntaka]

ok .then when oil price goes up high again ,

demand destruction starts all over again and OIL GOES DOWN AGAIN !

low $40 and high $140 ,so average $90 but oil seems to stay longer at lower than when its high.

so a bit of ajustmaent will make it like $70 a barrel !

make sense ?

bottom line is ppl need to live ,oil price won't go that ridiculous high like $200 - Matt Simmons was wrong cos' he didn't see demand destruction.

[valhala56]

My suggestion is to get Prof. Phillip Zimbardo, the best Social Psycholigist in the world on the problem of human reaction to multiple failures in our current energy, food, finacial et al situations when all this goes down.

My personal guess is that it will be similar to when the human body goes into shock, multiple organ systems failing at once, the only help in that case is state of the art Shock Trauma emergency room. The only ER for this will be the Goverment being overwhelmed.

[peakmoment]

Thanks for the suggestion. A recent article on human responses to crises is "Are Human Beings Hard Wired To Ignore the Catastrophic Threat Of Climate Change?" by Lisa Bennett on alternet. Says Carolyn Baker: "[Bennett] reveals evidence that suggests that civilization has so damaged human beings that we have been virtually unable to take action to stop climate change which due to our inaction, may now be unstoppable."

[valhala56]

The earth has gone through many Global warmings, Greenhouse effect over billions of years. The current Global warming is probaly a natural cycle of the earth, we have only accelerated it 1000 fold. Instead of takeing millions of years it will be thousands and it will be quite a bit more devasting.

[peakmoment]

Independent scientist James Lovelock says that the last time the earth had this much carbon in the atmosphere, all earth's systems to bind the carbon failed (oceans, atmosphere, etc.). It took 100,000 years for the carbon to get sequestered -- through the weathering of rocks. And that was before the sun was as hot as now. Looks like we're headed for a similar path.

[bluzy25]

Climate change is the least of our problems!

[bluzy25]

what i am saying is our very environment is important, however social unrest and poverty is much more critical issue right now! Also, remember 200 year after the last human is gone the traces of human existance will be gone. This is the blink of an eye in the earths existance.

[JanLauGe]

"...social unrest and poverty is much more critical issue right now!"

And when is environmental issue going to be top priority? When it is all gone?

"...remember 200 year after the last human is gone the traces of human existance will be gone"

Exept for the thousands of species we extinct.

[ya19375]

no worries about those extinct animals. nature will create new ones to take thier place.

[MarkinTexas1976]

I work as an engineer in the energy industry and understand the fundamentals behind peak oil.

This past summer the idea of peak oil was gaining traction in the general population as gas rises ros eabove $4 per gallon in many regions of the country. Recently gas prices have dropped in the last several weeks and people believe that it was temporary and that the world has more than enough oil. Why have oil prices dropped by over 60% in just a few months.

[peakmoment]

Gas prices have dropped not because of the fundamentals of supply and demand (demand is increasing, supply has flattened), but because a lot of investors in the financial markets had to cash out their holdings. The sold their shares in oil, gas, and more -- so the prices went down. For the time being.

[ogicabp4u]

the calm before the storm

[valhala56]

Think tsunami, this is when the ocean water withdraws mysteriously. The Tidal wave or Tsunami has yet to come. This is unusal because this the first time this has happened in the world, worldwide. Petro has peaked in different countries over the years. Since this has never happened before people do not understand the price drop & think there is less demand. That is not the case, this is precisely why it will be so dramatic to people when the price goes higher and higher and the coming shortages.

[ozinba]

Tsunami. Yes. Also, price of oil has dropped because the US$ has strengthened, the financial crisis means globally many are looking for refuge in the "safe" dollar. Prices of oil are in US$, so you get more for your buck, but less for your peso or euro. Above all, there has been some serious "demand destruction". Thats the recession: people are just not buying and consuming as much. This is good! BUT, the dollar will crash, and the price of oil will rocket! We don't know when. Get ready.

[vention4wh]

2. Being forced to prepare alone has altered my plan of action. Instead of brotherhood and community gardens, I've gotten into Karate and bought weapons (both lethal and nonlethal). And made plans to flee the city if I have to. Luckily I have a place to go. I'm playing catchup to get enough Karate and firearms experience under my belt to do me some good when things get bad.

Still, even though it's nearly too late, I have several coworkers and some family getting ready. It's a start.

[peakmoment]

I think there may be a lot of bumpy times, but it's not too late -- to be building community, to be sharing and working together. Personally, I'd rather be working together and encouraging others. The solo survivor probably won't last a long time -- and won't have as much fun, or caring, either.

[limeywestlake]

Nice Idea about this community thing, Janaia. One big problem though: as soon as one opens one's mouth about Peak Oil, the community you already have tends to dissipate and suddenly you are a pariah.

[peakmoment]

Yeah, peak oil doesn't fit into our picture of always-moving-upwards. Yes, there will be difficult moments and lots of denial. But I'll bet there are people in your community, maybe invisible right now, who are waking up to this. Do a public showing of "End of Suburbia" and host a discussion afterwards. See who comes. That's how a lot of communities are awakening folks. (Then show our DVD of Richard Heinberg's Kiss Your Gas Goodbye).

[limeywestlake]

I have been involved in a group organizing the screenings of Greene's documentaries for several years. I also run the Vancouver Peak Oil Citizens Group every month and, IMHO, people are not awakening fast enough. Often, I feel despondent (yet, on other days, I will be more hopeful - that is, despite many commentators' increasing discourse à propos the "pre-emptive" nuclear resource war scenario.)

BTW, I wish more women would come to our meetings. Far too much testosterone...

Cheers,

Neil

[ozinba]

Good on you! The transition town community in the UK believes in the concept of valuing the traditional; we will have to remember many skills our grandparents had. Maybe you can involve women by focussing on female dominated skills workshops, to share older women's knowledge; cooking, canning, knitting, sewing etc. Post peak oil may have some similarities with pre-oil (like even just 50 years ago). TT also have different working groups: food, transport, spirituality, etc. Check it out.

[peakmoment]

I think economic events will wake more folks up to the peak oil situation -- when it hits their pocketbooks. As for the women...hmmm. Many of the women active in our community seem less interested in intellectual discussion and more involved in doing -- creating social bonds, or gardens, or doing food storage, etc. Maybe a question to ask is, what kind of get-together or activity would draw women to addressing peak oil?

[Bytesmiths]

Ah yes, the American way of dealing with any problem: violence.

Those who are putting their faith in weapons may have to learn another meaning of "eat lead" if it comes to pass that cooperation becomes more important than defence. While weapons may be useful in a "Mad Max" scenario, they will simply be a waste of resource in a "boiling frogs" scenario.

Vention4wh: go out and grow food!

[valhala56]

You know people think it's going to be an either or situation. Either it will be people living in communes working permaculture OR a bleak moonscape of thugs in leather on motorcyles fighing each other for the last drops of gasoline.

The reality could be something more like Somalia, which is both scenarios, Somalia has  pirates on the high seas and roving pickup truck gangs of men with machine guns. This is not to be alarmist it is just a likely scenario. People will react unexpectedly.

[vention4wh]

1. I was really into community and sharing but the people I spoke to refused to listen. Some coworkers compared me to chicken little "the sky is falling!!".

So all I could do was prepare by myself. It's lonely being the only one who sees the disaster (at least among those I actually knew). Then when I got wind of this economic collapse that we're starting into now, I discovered that I was already somewhat ready for it.

The coworkers and a few neighbors are listening now but it might be too late