Michael Brandl on Oil and the Economy

[mistarcraw]

awesome propaganda ++++

very well done! Edward Bernays would be proud!

[gyyynnnlll]

Michael, you are right. People have to stop using Suburbans and F150 pickups as commuter scooters.

Being in canada, I see this: your northern neighbor isn't as friendly as you might think.

The "dirty oil", that comes from canada is only sustainable at about $40+ dollars a barrel.

Unfortunately canadians have a heavy anti-American complex that sees them holding some sort of "oil card" that they are going to play against America. Not good.

[al94930]

MB - actually, I still hold that the best course of action for the average American is to drill and increase supply (incl. alternative sources) to lessen dependence on foreign oil. Whether or not Pickens makes a few bucks on natural gas is besides the point - the American public will be the major beneficiary of that policy. Sorry professor, I was a bit harsh - but I'm old school patriotic America first kinda guy - which makes me a dinosaur in this Global multi-cultural cesspool you teach in!

[al94930]

MB - it's been a long time since I've been intimidated by academics with only half the story. Since you bothered to reply, please answer the question: which oil executives have you consulted before you gave your conclusions? James T. Hackett, president and CEO of Anadarko Petroleum Company. contradicts liberal's position that it could take 30 years for the oil to be available in Anwar, Hackett said it would take two or three years, depending upon where the oil was drilled.

[al94930]

As an MBA alum I'm embarrassed! Brandl looks like he's auditioning for CNN or Fox. "Oil drilling only becomes profitable if a barrel is over $80." Last I checked, it's a lot higher than this! Give up SUVs and ride Vespas? Are you kidding? Speculators impact the price? Of course they do. What we can do is to increase supply -- Drill. Build Nuclear plants. I remember one Prof who came into class - white belt, white shoes -that guy was a joker - but this guy Brandl is an embarrassment!

[mwbrandlUT]

Hey Al...now do you see why I was worried about the $80 price point?

No, I am not trying to audition for CNN or Fox, merely trying to use technology in different ways.

Thanks for your thoughts.

-MB

[al94930]

I listened to this again and it still doesn't ring true.I'd like to know how many oil company execs and economists you consulted with to come up with your conclusions. I'm going to guess none.

So the economy is going to grow in 2009? Another one you got wrong. Some of you guys need to get out of the classroom and get in the real world.

[mwbrandlUT]

Al - let me give you some advice: if your goal is have people listen to your comments & thoughts you have to be a bit more constructive in your comments. For example, your view that I have not consulted with economists or energy executives (while incorrect) doesn't offer the reader insight into why this would matter. So, offer the reader some reason as to why this is important. For example, what economists or energy executives who are credible offer another explanation or insight?

[srdjans]

isn't the oil traded in US dollars? If so, with weakening US dollar the rise in prices of oil is to be expected.

I am not sure the speculators have absolutly nothing to do the increase in price. Supply/demand laws did not quite hold in the housing market which ended up in a bubble so I am more inclined to think that weakening dollar, tight supply, increased demand (though it does not match the increase in price) and speculators looking for short term gains are driving the price.

[JasonTBlom]

Mr. Brandl,

My G-Friend is in the MBA program and has shared many of your views/papers with me. I think you are a really sharp guy and love your style!

If you don't mind, I'd love to hear your opinion on T. Boone's latest comments regarding Peak Oil. With the Chinese adding 15,000 new drivers to the road a day, and assuming Pickens is right, isn't $200 / barrel right around the corner???

Thanks,

Jason

[mwbrandlUT]

Pickens is pushing wind energy as a way to end dependence on foreign oil. Of course, he has major investments in wind...so, his analysis might be less-than-objective. Demand from emerging markets will probably continue to grow you are correct. But where the prices will peak is, of course, hard to say.

[CFreehill]

Even if industries in countries like China, where people/industries pay around 40% less than the world market indicates they should, the governments themselves should be feeling the price increase, right? So, it seems that supply and demand should still be in effect. Won't the governments that subsidize will eventually change their habits? Long-run elasticity, right? :-)

[mwbrandlUT]

Well...that only works if you assume that the Chinese government is trying to maximize profits and/or utility. But, if their objective function is to maximize something else (e.g. exports, political power, etc.) then, no. The Chinese government might use its foreign reserves or something else to continue to subsidize their domestic energy consumption.

Regards,

MB

[ckpenna]

Western Europe's taxation on fuel consumption amounts to reverse subsidies - demand should be suppressed. What's your take on this approach in bigger markets, like the US?

[boots920]

Price of oil reflects the amount of M3, US script in the system, why not peg it to euro's.

[patelbhai987]

thanks!