Is GOLD telling us something about the DOW?

[Trazom24]

Fast forward to today. If the metals and oil keep dropping for a while, from the peaks last Friday, then we have until mid/late February until another Dow crash if this trend continues and the pattern holds.

Now do I think this will play out exactly as it did before? Certainly no, but it could be similar in some respects. Best to wait and see.

[Trazom24]

Very informative.

Also, I've noticed something else. July 15th 2008 was a pivotal day for the Dow, gold, silver, and oil last year. Namely, it was a multi-month peak (all-time in the case of oil) for the commodities and the Dow and the beginning of the US dollar rally.

What's interesting is that it was approx. 2.5 months between the peaking of the commodities until the Down crashed in early October.

[linux23dragon2008]

Time to buy up big again on this dip :)

[mallamoozoo]

Is the Chinese Bank guy saying gold is in a bubble just trying to hose down impressions that China has gold fever, so as to not drive up price?

[scutter4christ]

Thaks bud, appreciate it very much!

[marque1999]

Stella,

Can you also add on another line which shows the Dow priced in Oil?

[BeenInACaveWayToLong]

Stella,

The Iraq oil production has been significantly curtailed by the war in Iraq. The fields are close to being ready for production now. Iraq has a significant amount of oil. What do you think is going to be the impact of a sudden increase in oil supply by Iraq? I think it will call downward pressure on oil pricing, followed by deflation.

[keithholden]

Usa made arabs rich,, arabs will make usa poor by selling in other currencies.

Usa is going to bankrupt the arabs. Ghost town in Dubai is first.

[medini2]

@BeenInACaveWayToLong good question. i think that in part is the reason for sending 30-40thousand extra troops to afganistan : just positioning to halt iraq & iran's oil production! esp since usa & canada now have more oil than ALL of the middle east up and in production, or didn't you know? convenient, too that copenhagen (or at least PART of it) is derailed just now.

[britestudiosllc]

GREAT OBSERVATION!!! The divergence is indicating a weak dollar, which means the DOW is overpriced in dollars, and will correct to the downside.

If you look at the DOW priced in gold from 1920 to 2009, you will notice that we still have a ways to go, as previous bottoms have resulted in the DOW/Gold ratio between 1.5 and 3.5. We are currently near 8 or 9. So either gold valued in dollars will rise, or the market valued in dollars will decline, or they will meet somewhere inbetween.

[investornator]

Dont the Rotheschilds hold something like 30% of the worlds gold?

Do you think the Rothschilds would like to see there assets depreciate?I dont

The reason gold was cheap,8 years ago($260 OZ)is because the Rotheschild were purchasing it cheap,now they have alot of gold its funny how gold is $1200 OZ...all sepculation on my part tho

[mallamoozoo]

If the rumours are true about the TRUE wealth of the Rothschilds (Ive heard its $500 trillion or half the worlds' total wealth - but i dunno how they measured it - might have counted their banks calculated derivative "value")

But anyway - point is - when someone is that rich - they are playing power games - they aren't looking for "a good stock pick" - they are rigging the entire market!

[Motoicon]

I love that ending. Says it all....

[PainfullyUnfunny]

Very interesting! Thanks for sharing and keep it up! =)

[Lexi8888]

Great ending,,,,yeah!

[bweazel]

No. Gold is not telling us anything. It's a speculative commodity bubble no different than oil was two years ago. Period. And what's worse, we have tons of people telling people with little to no knowledge of markets to buy a commodity at all time highs. Not alot of intelligence there, in my opinion.

[sureseam]

Saying gold is at "all time highs" involves making assumptions about inflation!

Depending on whose inflation statistics you rely, the all time high Gold price could be between $6300 and $2300.

It may turn out to be a bubble but that case is not proven.

Circumstances may yet justify a higher gold price range within the next few years.

[SamuraiCommando]

Do you guys think BoA news that they are going to repay tarp will affect PM trends? Or has it today?

[NicosMind]

I hate it when people mark comments like this as spam. Censorship is not an arguement. Personally i believe a lot about what i hear about climate change.

I however believe that its also being used as an excuse for global government and to tax/destroy production!

Ive heard economists like Peter Schiff say the new bills do nothing apart from destroy production and the new EU president as well as Gore say they want global government cause of climate change! People need to listen!

[drutter]

NicosMind, maybe you don't understand what "spam" means. Spam is off-topic or unrelated content. The comment below by PikeSdream is about climate change, and this video is about precious metals. That's why it was marked as spam. You seem to think spam means "false" but it doesn't.

Also, YT automatically marks comments as spam when the same person posts the same comment on multiple videos. Perhaps that's what happened.

In either case, the comment is correctly marked as spam.

[NicosMind]

Well actually i do. However if you were watching a video on climate change and someone was good enough to say "economic collapse coming, get yourself some gold and silver" and that was marked as spam. I would also understand that, but what really gets me is the closed mindedness that accomapanies that thinking.

I never said i dont understand why its marked as spam just that i hate it!

Not with a passion mind, its just a peev.

I discovered Ron Paul cause of people spamin Obama vids. cont

[NicosMind]

and then discovered Peter Sciff and others. Ive also helped my family out and friends by passing on videos and every so often post them on my facebook.

People are very often ignorant and assume they know the best. Repub or democrat, Climate change or scandal. They often rely on others to do the research for them, and if it makes sense theyll happily except it. Especially if you pile information on top of a faulty premise.

Geocentric Earth, communism etc are good examples.

[drutter]

NOW it sounds like you know what spam is, but your first comment didn't. You said that you agreed with the comment. Doesn't matter if you agree with it. What makes it spam is that it has nothing to do with the conversation. Even if it happens to be correct, it's spam.

Ron Paul spam on Obama vids is good. Obama spam on Ron Paul vids is bad. Well, depending which side you're on. But both are spam.

[NicosMind]

As far as my first comment goes and spam i did say this " I hate it when people mark comments like this as spam. Censorship is not an arguement"

But i do understand where youre coming from considering this video isnt about climate change.

But guess my point is(looking at it again) that some messages are good to spread, and even though you may not agree with what a person says, always do your own research!

Anyway now for a bit of spam myself,

Vote Ron Paul

Vote UKIP!

lulz

[drutter]

Hehe, I had to look up UKIP... but sometimes that's the whole point of spam, you get people to learn something they didn't know. :p

Look at us, spamming John's video! Tsk tsk. Better add some content.

Uhhh, gold and silver, so cool.... *cough*

[whiskerchild]

Nico: I agree with you. Obviously, there is global warming- we just don't know how much is man-made.

And you are right: the elites will try to use it to gain more power over us.

[hypobusa]

No such thing, temps have been dropping not increasing.

NASA got it wrong re; icesheets, increasing not decreasing..

Co2 levels have been a lot higher in previous years..

Global warming = hoax..

[NicosMind]

I watch a lot of EU parliament videos and its disgraceful how the globalists just ignore and piss over democracy. Theyre definitely using "global warming" as an excuss for world domination. They do what they want and have no respect for the law, procedure or anyone elses opinions and wants. 3 Good youtube channels are Europarl ukipmedia and ukipwebmaster, and heres a vid that shows you what theyre like

watch?v=QVeMBNB0cII

[nessalu]

Haha... Yeah... Yeeeeeaaah! ;)

[galikazoid]

thanks

[MrPhajlee]

Your videos are hard to hear.

[maybecominsoon]

The guy at the end is hilarious!! Thanks for the videos, John. Great, as always.

[jdl1881]

The Guy at the end is a crack up!!!!

[SolarAlchemy]

Lol I love the end of that video

[artdeco101010]

Nice catch ! Very interesting indeed !

[TheLiddlekiddle]

Do you think gold will fall like it did last year, into the $900 or $1000 range?

[shawnaspen25]

I think it could fall to the $800 to $1000 range soon, but it will hit $3,000 ton $5,000 by 2012!

[ahmedvienna]

We can keep dreaming...

If it does do go down to 800 ..

I ll go out and buy half a kilo of gold straight up...

But the amount of de-leveraging that needs to happen for it to go down to 800 from 1200 is just too huge to happen now... nearly impossible in my openion ..

we must ask our selves the question.. why would it fall ? we need to know why ..

[midnightrun7]

The ISM Non- Manufacturing Index at 48.7 in November down from 50.6 in October. I believe that 50 or below is a contraction.

Retail sales were not what The Street expected, I think down about 25%

You can't spend (Stimulous B.S.) and build on nothing. Unemployment will not get better when manufacturing and retail sales is down again and will continue to fall in my opinion.

The divergance in your chart is no suprise.

Good Video!

[kcsammi]

EXCELLENT !

[networkingman]

Thanks for the chart! I'd also like to add that the volume on the DOW has been decreasing with increasing nominal value. Typically this could send a signal that any downturn could be quite severe given historical trends.

[skybirdbird]

great chart...........thanks.......

[maxxmann34]

Hey John.. Love your vids.. Did you notice that silver and gold are going up now even on days the USD is strenghening? It's not a lot of course but the correlation is breaking down a bit. Also, the DOW really hasn't done much percentage wise lately and yet gold and silver are still going up.. We have a saying in currency trading, you know a trend when it goes the same direction in bullish or bearish news.. ;)

[IntiHehlua]

The sad thing is that the Federal Reserve Bank fudged the idea of money being worth it's amount in gold. This is why I hate the monetary value system, altogether. Rich stockbrokers, poor people footing the bill, et cetera. We must get away from this pyramid effect, because this big dog, little dog bullshit has had its run, and we now see how for nearly a century, people have been duped out of their hard-earned efforts.

[collegeboy477]

there isnt anything wrong with fiat currency, unless its being used to finance wars and marxist/communist takeovers ;)

[NicosMind]

I disagree. Fiat currencys have no withstrictions to stop them being inflated. But ignoring the problems with fait currencies the whole monetary system is wrong.Fractional reserve banking,and money thats created out of debt should be put to an end. Oh and centrally controled interest rates. Interest rates should be decided by the market.And when it comes to international trade i think no country should have the currency nor a world bank.Commodities like gold etc should be used to pay differences

[decepticonsofnwo]

Theoretically I believe a Fiat currency could work and you have most certainly pointed out the reasons why they haven't been, Artificial interest rates, attached interest and my favorite "Quantitative Easing" LOL aka printing more money

[decepticonsofnwo]

I agree, theoretically a fiat currency could work if central banks didn't attach interest to it and print it like it's going out of style, in theory the point of money is just a medium of exchange for things of real value (food, clothing, bulding materials etc.)

[collegeboy477]

The point in my bringing it up is that if we are going to build a new world there need not be this misconception with regard for the need to have gold. As long as your currency isnt really a debt and your not creating it so you can kill other people there shouldnt be a problem.

If we do audit the fed and ultimately shut it down after severe economic calamity, it will likely be replaced with something much worse.

[decepticonsofnwo]

it's not that we need a gold backed currency, but an individual certainly needs gold or silver with the current monetay policy that is devaluing our currency, I disagree about auditing the Fed, following up HR 1207 would be the Federal Reserve abolition act and if all is done as needs to be, monetary policy would be turned over to its rightful owners, the Congress

[decepticonsofnwo]

The something much worse that you speak of would be global governance and a one world currency controlled by the IMF (Central bank of the World)

[jman144]

I agree. If all men were angels, then we would not need locks on all our doors. All the money spent on locks and other forms of protection could be put to better use. The point is all the central bankers today, and the central bankers tomorrow are human beings. They will consistently make mistakes hence nice theory, but WILL not work. see hayek and mises. Pure fantasy to believe that a group of human beings can "manage" the economy much less money supply. There will BOOM and BUST cycles.

[decepticonsofnwo]

You are correct, if Greed didn't lead to "Quanitative easing" and boom + bust cycles, a fiat currency would work. But a collapse of fiat currency is inevitable with cenrtral bankers and their printing press.

[NicosMind]

Look at Linchon. He created a currency that didnt come from debt but thats not enough. Also not charging interest still doesnt stop massive inflation. Not many people know Linchon was an inflationist but search for Thomas DiLorenzo's The Real Lincoln. Itll surprise you. Thats why we need something to withstrain the banksters, or some system where we can get rid of them completly(and i dont mean communism) Like small institutions with 100% reserve. So far from todays system they wont be related.

[IntiHehlua]

Welcome to the Rothschild Family. They're the ones who fronted the dough to get the FRB going. Not only that, but they've been interesting their own bank for centuries. Google it. There's nothing against this information, which is frightening!

[Trazom24]

Great find. Thanks for sharing this. Let's see if the trend holds or we've entered a new paradigm where the divergence will only hasten.

I heard Bob Chapman's interview (the other day), and I could be wrong but he seemed to indicate much much higher prices right around the corner for gold. I'm talking at least 1300 and perhaps much more by end of year. I guess that kind of makes sense based on the runup thus far. Of course this also makes me wonder if we're due for a pullback.

[RenegadeTimes]

Sit of those positions ! ha ha ha

[cpswyl2]

Haha! Great clip-add at the end ;)

[GuildF40]

Cheers Mate

Even after all this time I am still happy to have found your channel, great chart.

5*****

[bluecat1122]

thanks John for the video, lmao at the end "uh, yeah!" ;)

[collapseofthedollar]

if you take the dow priced in such a commodity i suppose it means that were just inflating our way into 'recovery', or rather just the illusion of recovery while the real value of our assets continue to decline

[GovWillKillU]

looks like it is expanding out, opening up, where before it didnt hold the trend. could it possibly continue like this? could it HAVE to?

[GovWillKillU]

very interesting.. great post as usual.

5*****

[Airave]

Nice comparison, John. Thanks.

[oldreliable1]

Thanks for the update. lol you played that clip at the end again lmao.

[investornator]

great work 5 stars john

countrys such as ,china,russia,india,sri lanka,germany,are all looking to buy more gold.Retirement funds are purchasing gold,the average joe is purchasing gold and soon i think we will have 1 billion chinese and Indian people buying gold for investment reasons.Gold is going to continue to rise as demand dose,and silver will follow.....

we are all seeing history in the making

my 2cents........

[fal2grace]

Great chart John! Thanks.

[CuriousTOknow1]

yea...yea lol

[mlndstream]

So perhaps it's time to move some Aussie dollar savings into US dollars, since they skyrocketed last time?, plus this divergence looks bigger than the first time, so does that mean the crash could be bigger too? as that is what Robert Prechter has been saying should be happening soon too,that the 3rd wave down should be bigger than the first, steeper, and more surprising...so have you taken off your currency hedge John?or are you leaving it on?

[GovWillKillU]

but think of what happens if that DOES happen. a complete collapse of the financial system, with much less government backstop. more stimulus, more unemployment.. scary to think what the implications are here; we're talking the entire US government collapse and martial law; yet a super strong US dollar; with not necessarily more purchasing power. gold will have solid support all the way down..like high 900's, low 900's, throughout the 800's... it wont drop like before...if everythign crashes.

[mlndstream]

certainly the fact that it is the only(?) asset to have made new highs since the first collapse indicates that if there isn't another collapse its going to go to great heights, but if it does drop again, it will probably only recover those losses again to go to newer heights anyway, so looks like a pretty safe buy long term regardless, and even when it does fall it falls less than everything else anyway so relative to most other(non cash)assets it's purchasing power actually increases anyway?

[GovWillKillU]

yeah. today i prayed that china finds out what the trade is by Goldman Saks, JPM, BAC, C, etc and they go the oppoiste way, creating MaJOR losses for the banks. we know the banks will start shorting when the AP and MSM start pumping gold.

[AfterTheFox75]

I couldn't quite make out when was the time period of the first divergence....did you say 18 months ago?

Thanks for the update! :-)

[stellaconcepts]

when the dow was around 14000 - so late 2007... wow - nearly 2 years ago! far out!

[AfterTheFox75]

Yeah, I knew it had been a while, but in the vid it almost sounded like you said 15 months and I was sure that wasn't right. lol

Far out indeed! Time goes by fast sometimes...wait, why am I all happy over this? :-(

[ozwasp]

How much further will gold go up in the short term??

[stellaconcepts]

1300 is a reasonable target.... by end jan-feb for sure.

[zalida100]

Hi John

I think Bob Chapman reckoned next stop for gold would be $1325 and then $1680. On a radio show 2 days ago.

I don't know how you/he come by these numbers, but remember in your video a couple of weeks ago. I think gold was $1120 or something and he said - $1200 in next 7 days. He was damned near spot-on.

You seem to have a good track record - keep it up. Very valuable for people.

Cheers

[Raycheetah]

A dollar just doesn't hold the value it once did. The DOW is just a meringue market, all fluff, no substance. =^[.]^=

[mejt223]

SWEET