My grandfather used anecdotes every day of his life to make decisions, and he lived to be 117. My father swore by anecdotes, and he's the King of France today!
This sums up why Im smart and many others are not so smart. You can apply this to Religion and all of the other crock of shit claims made by low IQ having peoples =)
Large randomised controlled trials are beyond the financial resources of most natural forms of medicine. They are a great tool for organised medicine to spread this kind of philosophy. In the case of Chiropractic the N.Z. Royal Commission into Chiropractic, the highest form of legal inquiry after extensive examination and interviews of thousands of citizens found there was adequate evidence for Chiropractic to be included into the national health system. This was vigorously opposed by the A.M.A.
you'd agree with alternative medicine/placebo in cases "[...] where there is no effective treatement". and i think that's very often the case. people first turn to a classical doctor, and when that doesn't work, they try something else. ie with lower probability of success. quite rational to me.
The problem being with people who spend thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars on ineffective treatments after being conned into believing something that won't work.
Although I would not mind being a professional lottery player, I have never won $100 on the lottery...lol... I agree to your points, but I also have seen benefit from such things as Chiropractic Medicine.(Which is actually based on science, just not molecular level) The basis on Chiropractic is more like a complete building where someone drives a car into your back wall. Medicine cannot make the wall heal itself, but having the studs and wall sheeting knocked back into place will help a lot.
I am very confused as to why you would believe the official story of Anecdotal Evidence (3 buildings defy physics for the first time in history), and not use you apparent loyalty to basic science and Newtonian physics in regards to this issue, as has over 1200 professionals in the field have. Are you a professional in the field of architecture and engineering? Or are you a viral biologist? Please clarify this seeming conflict of logic.
The fallacy of insufficient statistics. The only three building EVER to fall at free fall acceleration due to fire, into their own footprint occurred on 911. Two buildings were designed to withstand hurricane force winds and impacts from multiple bowing 747's. According to Nist reports, were weekend by fire that could not melt steel , but only warp it. No internal beams existed after the fire. The other building was never hit by a plane. All 3 building fell exactly as ALL demolished buildings do
Haha, this is a great vid. I am not a fan of statistics (I can do it but I sure as hell dont like maths) but you seem to be a really great teacher. I hope you expand to your ability to the classrooms / lecture halls as well.
Haha, this is a great vid. I am not a fan of statistics (I can do it but I sure as hell dont like maths) but you seem to be a really great teacher. I hope you expand to your ability to the classrooms / lecture halls as well.
Don't forget the power of "inaction". Many a disease was cured by the simple application of this miracle of modern medicine that is so closely related to "placebo". All it takes is time.
Regarding perceptions of causality, studies show that Americans (western view) have more of a tendency to think history follows a linear path. If something is increasing/decreasing it is bound to continue to do the same over time. Easterners tend to view causality not in terms of historical continuity but expecting things to "turn around", time follows a circle. so if something is increasing, for an easterner it is soon to decrease. - From R. Nisbett's boook "Geography of Thought"
Let's say there was a therapy that required belief, but that was more effective than simply believing, you make the mistake of not acknowledging this possibility. Nevertheless, such circumstance are conceivably possible, and they are also testable. Blind the patient as to whether they are receiving the treatment and/or use a sham treatment that the patient can not distinguish. The practitioners of "treatments that claim this as a requirement, cn not make the excuse that testing is impossible.
Not yet finished wathcing it, but I was a bit put off by you giving poker as an example of this small sample size problem, which isn't quite right. Nice vid so far though:)
All there is to say about potential side effects of REAL medicine?
The mantra of many a chemist or doctor - show me a drug with no side effects and I'll show you a drug that doesn't work.
We just aren't good enough at this stuff to do drugs without side effects and hell, a lot of treatments are borne OUT of unintended side effects - viagra being the obvious example.
I think one reason why anecdotal evidence is so powerful is because it generates a sort of mental picture which statistics just can't do. Also, in the reporting of cases, out-of-the-ordinary cases are more likely to be reported or focused on, thereby making them seem more likely than they really are (never mind reports of "cured" people who go on to die of their disease). Casino owners know this.
Well now, isn't it true that mentality can give rise to changes in physiology? Isn't this precisely what necessitates the blind test? What if a certain treatment's effectiveness really does depend on the physiological conditions brought about by a patient's confidence in it?
Maybe it would be a good idea to test such proclaimed treatments under double-blind against placebo.
I wonder how much of this rejection of evidence based medicine has to do with people's aversion/ignorance of Chaos/Complexity theories? Those theories have become invaluable to medicine and our understanding of biology, yet really haven't penetrated public understanding at all. People tend to still believe in miracle cures without side effects, spiritual healing, and self-help to keep the individual in "control" of their own well-being. Simple comforting delusions against a world of uncertainty.
I actually know someone who studies homeopathy and is adamant that it cured her of cancer when doctors couldn't. She gets visibly upset if you question her. So thanks for another educated video, but I doubt passing it on to her will have any beneficial effect.
Great points. But I think something that you haven't considered is what if the studies just aren't there yet? For example, water fasting - it's done really well in the very limited studies that they've done. But that's just it - not a lot of study around the area, so the medical world is completely oblivious to it.
One of the best arguments made by alternative treatments like this is: there's no money in it, so not enough study has been done. THAT'S why the doctors don't know about it.
Fantastic. I especially appreciated your point about claims that you have to 'believe in the medicine' — so ridiculous isn't it: so the drug/procedure is inert until activated by belief?? Loved your choice of quotes at the end too.
Science based medicine would be a great idea but what we have today is business based medicine. This is true of both the traditional and alternative schools. While alternative medicine studies are smaller (as they have less money) & they tend to massage the interpretation of the data many pharmaceutical studies are outright falsified, partly BECAUSE more money has been spent on them and more money is at stake. Also, pharmaceuticals are often replaced as ineffective once their patents run out.
@fluffymcdeath tha tis rubbish. Tell me what clinical studies are consistently falsified, which was approved by FDA or any other Western Government! Making a clinical study is one thing, passing it through the control mechanism a completely different one. I haven't seen a single study for alternative medecine which was performed to FDA requierments.
You know poker involves enough skill that it can and is done professionally by many people. So that picture was probably a poor choice. You can't equate a poker game to slots or the lottery and it's distracting to the point of the video.
It does remind me however, that while the lottery is almost universally legal in the US and slots are becoming ever more widespread, gambling over cards remains the most restricted. Personally I'd much rather see poker rooms than slot machines in my state.
This is a rather interesting topic, because my father works in what many could consider an alternative treatment: The effects of magnetic fields over living organisms. I was skeptic at first (and still am, but a little less), but he introduced me with some scientific evidence, such as cancer induced mice getting 50% less liver injuries when a magnetic field is applied (they also use control subjects)... Still, I usually don't believe in alternative medicine.
From a small sample size you cannot conclude that the successes are necessarily attributed to the treatment. People recover from thier own immunity responses also. Additionally anecdotal information is selective & subjective. A producer of an alternative medicine will never report a failed subject. If four patients die of cancer, the one that survives tells the anecdote, even though they were all subject to the same treatment...Great video!
My favourite anecdotal story is: "My grandfather used to drive across lake (X) --or can now drive across lake (X)-- and I can't --or can--, therefore my area is seeing severe global warming --or cooling-- and therefore this is a proven concept...
The first ~2 mins also applies to the investment world. It's amazing how many investors have a good run of 2 or 3 years, and as a result lots of people listen to the investor and take his word as gold even after another 10 years or more of his failing to predict the market.
My personal anecdote: As a child I had terrible headaches 3-4 times a week. My mom took me to a chiropractor a few times and they stopped. I don't know what happened or if placebo can last for years on end but it somehow worked permanently. It's weird but whatever I don't have those god-awful headaches anymore.
@LibjkeaIH Without knowing which of the several distinct, separately diagnosable types of headaches you had, you don't even have an anecdote. For instance, there's a vicious type of headache called a cluster headache (called that because they usually occur in clusters, several in quick succession). These stop without intervention and don't come back for many years, if ever.
Good physicians consider it unethical to prescribe placebos even though a placebo might be good enough to deal with a particular problem.
Could this be why some physicans over-prescribe antibiotics when the patient has a viral infection (against which antibiotics are ineffective)? Last time I had viral infection my doctor claimed my lungs sounded as though I MIGHT have an opportunistic bacterial infection and prescribed antibiotics. Genuine or a justification for a placebo?
@bdf2718 Your doctor was probably doing 1 of 3 things:
1: He prescribed a drug to treat what he thought was a real situation (an opportunistic infection).
2: He was expecting you to expect a prescription and be upset if you didn't get one, and was taking the easy way out.
3: He was practicing defensive medicine to minimize the risk of a law suit (possibly at the behest of his liability insurance carrier, to get a lower premium, since those premiums are often HUGE).
Opportunistic infection, possibly. He ought to know me better by now than that I expect a prescription (placebo?) for everything. We don't have defensive medicine here.
I'm in the NHS, which is far from failing. It has inefficiencies that could be improved upon, but it beats what the US has. Costs are a good deal lower. Outcomes are a good deal better. These are documented facts. Most of the developed world has far lower costs and far better outcomes than the US. Even Cuba does better on both counts.
@bdf2718 Do you actually have anything to back up those claims, or just the usual cooked and fabricated numbers put out by the grossly overpriced, under-performing bureaucracy?
Google is your friend. Google will give you the numbers. Not numbers produced by the NHS but by independent sources giving global figures.
Hell, even the CIA World Factbook will give you the same information, but it's more work to make the comparisons.
Oh, and I'll take the NHS over what you have any day of the week. The French will take their system. The Germans theirs. The Italians theirs. And the Cubans theirs. Because what you have is broken.
@bdf2718 So, you're saying that you not only don't have anything supporting you, but you already know you're wrong.
I have the misfortune to be afflicted with the Canadian medical system, which while much worse than the US system, isn't anything like as lethal to it users as the UK system. Or do you think waiting several months for surgery is GOOD for people?
You complete and utter fuckwit. Youtube censors posts with URLs, you twat. So I told you to google it, which would prove what a complete twat you are. Even pointed you at the CIA World Factboook.
Nope, but compilations of evidence from honest sources is going to help me.
I win. You fail. Big fucking time. Major fucking fail. These statistics are compiled by many independent sources. I win. You fail. It's as simple as that. You're entitled to your own opinions, however wrong they are; you're not entitled to your own facts.
@bdf2718 I don't see why you think that the fact that the HN kills so many people by being so slow to treat them helps you. Or is it that you think that killing people is the purpose of government? Before you start lying about the failure that is NH again, you might want to look at how many people die from pneumonia while waiting the MONTHS it takes to get a hip replacement. You can put essentially ALL those deaths on the NH's incredibly slow service.
@bdf2718 I was waiting for you to bring up the infant mortality fraud. That's one of the most obviously cooked of their fakeries. They get it that low by not counting the babies most likely to die, such as those with extremely low birth weight. the US counts it as a live birth if it's not already dead when it hits the air. The UK only counts it if it's not likely to die.
Of course, YOU think dieing of pneumonia instead of getting a hip replacement is a 'better outcome'.
Depends upon your definition of "effective." Some people take "no better than placebo" to mean ineffective. But placebo is better than no medical intervention at all. The correct measures are "is placebo good enough in this case" and "is it cost effective."
Depends upon your jurisdiction. Depends upon medical ethics within that jurisdiction. In the US you're right. In China, the shit-sellers have almost equal status with real doctors.
I do wonder if some doctors prescribe treatments that probably are irrelevant but night not be in some cases just to get around placebo rules.
Your best source for clinical evidence is the Cochrane Library. Here's what they say:
"A small analgesic effect of acupuncture was found, which seems to lack clinical relevance and cannot be clearly distinguished from bias. Whether needling at acupuncture points, or at any site, reduces pain independently of the psychological impact of the treatment ritual is unclear."
BMJ. 2009 Jan 27;338:a3115
Not dismissed out of hand, but can't be demonstrated to be effective.
My one problem with your advice is that I've never had a trusted physician (ok, technically I have no physician at all at the moment). I am too sceptical. I've also had some bad experiences where I asked the doctor I was dealing with for sources and statistics. They exhibited a sad lack of knowledge in both areas. Doctors may be better educated than us in both specifics and critical thinking, but they still seem highly error prone.
I agree with your video completely. Very incisive, very balanced.
I am wondering why some "alternative" therapies do seem to work (albeit within certain, perhaps unknown parameters). I myself have an anecdote regarding a Chinese herbal mixture. I took it to get gat a friend off my back about what I presumed was another useless herbal therapy. I wasn't expecting it to work, yet it somehow addressed the problem I had rather specifically. It did work.
Chinese medicine is a weird one. From what I can tell (and that's a huge disclaimer) it's a mixture of actual effective folk medicine, placebo, and just cultural practice. Like chicken soup with a little Tamiflu in it. I'm still digging into it, but it's not all rubbish. One amusing thing is that it seems to be much more effective in Chinese populations than Western. Is that diet, environment, genetics, or belief? I don't know.
@C0nc0rdance "One amusing thing is that it seems to be much more effective in Chinese populations than Western. Is that diet, environment, genetics, or belief? I"
Hmmmm. Weird! Wonder if our culture by and large not believing in this stuff might throw off our evaluation of it. Much of what we have deemed 'placebo effect' depends on the attitude of the patient AND the physician We seem to totally ignore that and its hard to measure double blind.
@C0nc0rdance - an excellent analogy as in fact Tamiflu is isolated from something in Chinese Star Anise (& other Asian illicium species). Chinese medicines follow an odd breakdown of bodily constitution- hot/cold, interior/exterior, dry/wet, along with a cyclical understanding of organ systems (wood, fire, water, earth, air). Much like religion, they have "herbal master works" laid down eons ago, by people of legend, works which are only ever referenced, but which are unquestioned. Odd indeed.
@abyssquick actually, Tamiflu is synthesized in big labs and one of many starting products (shikimic acid) is isolated from star anise since it cannot be synthesised easily.
@C0nc0rdance I have this view of Chinese medicine, and most modern medicine for that matter, is this.... All medicine came from something in nature, whether it was in substance, or in idea. All natural remedies aren't "bad" because most drugs that treat human illnesses come from nature, at it's core.
@C0nc0rdance genetics play certainly a role, if you want to make a clinical study the background of your participants plays a major role. A lot of herbs have effective compounds occuring naturaly. However, you usually cannot rely on concentration and have little data to side effects. There are a lot of pharmaceutical companies investing in checking out these "old" remmedies in order to find new treatments.
@abyssquick Honestly, I can't see how that could fail. It was a given that the problem you have with your friend pestering you would stop if you took his advice no matter what it was.
With my cynicism towards the herbal "natural" health industry (and I can go on for days about the problems with the industry), I was completely surprised it did work. I was expecting impotent well-marketed junk like 99%+ of herbal products.
Oddly, I have a lot of friends into the natural health thing. Enthusiastic, happy-go-lucky people who are prone to buying whatever fluffy marketing falls their way. I occasionally try things I am given. I am known as the cynical "skeptic," the "unbeliever."
@abyssquick No I wasn't making a comment about yourself - I was trying to be funny by twisting the way you structured your sentence; It made it seem as if you were wondering how you managed to get your friend of your back by taking his advice, instead of asking how chinese medicine works. Of course, lacking tone of voice and body language the joke does not appear to have been communicated.
@TheBenEEeee The impersonality of the internet harbors deeper obstructions - you see I am also autistic (asperger's, or "butt-sandwich"). So, I rarely pick up on any 'tone' unless it is overtly expressed - whether written or spoken. It's all good.
@abyssquick im not the vid maker but i can suggest stuff haha, placebo's will still have the placebo effect if some very small part of you wants it to, it could even be a subconscious thought, you wanting it to work and not knowing you wanted it, im curious did it only work in the short term? because sometimes the body will administer natural pain killers to deal with certain pains. and some natural medicine does have root in undiscovered science, thats always a possibility
@brennanww Here's the deal - I had been seeing a chiropractor for lower back pain for years. I really didn't mind doing this, but a friend of mine insisted I try a Chinese herb mixture specifically for loosening lower back muscles. So, I would drink the tea, and within 2 hours, the muscles would loosen, and the pain would subside. After a few months of a daily tea, the pain began to fade entirely and now I no longer see a doctor about it. Hasn't bothered me in years. That's the story.
@brennanww All I can say really is that whatever it was, it worked for me. Doesn't mean it would work forsomeone else. Placebo? Who knows. I certainly didn't believe the effects when I felt them. Especially since I had far more "faith" in chiropractic care for lower back problems (the only studied affliction it can really help with).
an anecdote I always found fascinating was the spas at lourdes and the supposed miraculous healings. Tens of thousands of curings/healings have been claimed, yet the Catholic church has investigated and recognizes 67 as being genuine miraculous healings. A conservative estimate of 200M visitors since 1860, SURELY .000000335% could be expected to get better by chance alone!? Where are the studies that show how many of the 67 ALSO rec'd conventional medicines?
(cont) WHERE are the studies of how many people visited and actually got SICKER as a result? I bet my left testicle it's a LOT more than .000000335%! Think about it: people with infectious diseases, infections, etc. (think AIDS, leprosy, pox, STDs, influenza etc.) Some people bathe in the water, some actually drink it! I would love to see some follow-ups from visitors there!
@lennyhipp Just another anecdote about Lourdes : It is the most wanted place by 'gendarmes' to spend their career (gendarmes are similar to police but with a military status). Why is it ? Because they get a bonus on their salary everytime they carry away a dead body and Lourdes has the highest mortality rate in the country due to the number of visitors in a very poor state. I said "anecdote" but they place their bet based on actual statistics.
@synsei1 Very, very interesting. Any websites you can point me to so I can read more about this? How can i confirm this and make sure it's not just a local legend?? This C0nc0rdance vid has inspired me to make my own video on anecdotes! :)
In my opinion, anecdotes are never good for making generalizations, but they are good at giving some slight exposure to reality. For instance, someone who makes a blanket statement about race, poverty, violence, etc, can be argued against by anecdote. Good at disproving claims, not good at proving them.
The last thing you said was that the best source for advice is a trusted physician, but the problem is that for the people who are really into this stuff (anti-vaccers, homeopathy practitioners, etc) there is no such thing as a "trusted physician".
They are under the eyes of "Big Pharma", and the only trustworthy ones are the ones who agree with them.
One girl I had a discussion with said that most physicians were just wanting their paycheck, and didn't really care.
What is the difference between information used for prediction (e.g. facts independent of us) and information used for promises (e.g. facts which rely upon our own action/implementation?
great vid, I think we have all seen commercials with only anecdotal "proof" i think just seeing the face of someone that it worked makes us all want to believe someone
once again your videos are amongst the highest quality and informative on the internet. You always leaving more.... Speaking of which, When's the next one already!?? :)
I had a believer in homeopathy tell me something interesting a few days ago. He thinks that all medicine is placebo. People on clinical trials receiving the treatments have worse side effects than those using the placebo, so they're more likely to believe it works and therefore more likely to do better.
I was wondering if you knew of any clinical trials or studies that address this claim. I assume it's been studied, but I don't have an answer for him right now.
@duras clinical studies with for example antibiotics cannot be done "against" Placebo. This would be ethically wrong! They are done "against" existing antibiotics and have to show a better rate for healing, less side effects or any other beneficial effects (oral instead of intravenous etc.) in order to be allowed on the market. Besides, clinically tested compounds were shown to be effective on a biochemical level, cellular level and in lab animals. See what he will respond to that ;)
Brilliant! Thanks for bringing these to my attention. His assessment is spot-on, and shows how we can learn from alternative medicine, how it can be of benefit to evidence based medicine.
Enjoyed goldacre's description of the color of the pill, or even qty of sugar water pills being more effective. another interesting thing about placebos is more expensive ones work better as well, google "Expensive Placebo Works Better Than Cheap One". The power of the mind is incredible. I've heard that certain people allergic to something having their skin swabbed with sugar water (but told it was what they're allergic to) and breaking out in a rash!
Hanfeizi (280 - 233 BCE) spotted this a couple of millennia ago:
"There was a farmer of Song who tilled the land, and in his field was a stump. One day a rabbit, racing across the field, bumped into the stump, broke its neck, and died. Thereupon the farmer laid aside his plow and took up watch beside the stump, hoping that he would get another rabbit in the same way. But he got no more rabbits, and instead became the laughingstock of Song."
@Darkfirebrand Unfortunately, big religions like Christianity and Islam are immune from this sort of fallacy, simply because they have power in numbers. Nearly half the world believes that the Christian god exists, so to apply this method to Christianity means that there is more than a 50% chance that they are correct.
Sis-in-law was cured from a heart condition. She didn't prostrate before science but joined a Baptist group - along with my brother. And along with substantial donations every month.
Hey I was wondering if you could do a video on your thoughts regarding things like the infected vaccines in africa, the complaints people have about "big pharma" and such. I am not really sure how it all relates and was hoping a clear up.
You know what cures my headaches and backpains? Sleeping, playing on my computor, taking a shit etc etc etc.
Headaches and backpain cures itself after a while. If you always drink orange juice when you get headaches you could start to believe that citrus cures headaches, the same is true for lovers of chiropractic.
Great video, but let me add an obvious additonal point -- a percentage, and I would say the majority, of anecdotal reports that alternative medicines are effective are out and out lies, fabricated by criminal fraudsters to help them in the bunko scheme to cheat sick people out of their money. So, generalizing with thee reports becomes much worse than merely a hasty conclusion, and no amount of lies add up to actual evidence.
(cont final part). I am thinking of taking a poll on skinbook (like facebook, but for naturists) to see if there is at least any corrolation or relation at all to the loss of body image issues and the practice of naturism. What do you think would be a good sample size of people, to avoid it coming off as Anecdotal evidence?
@thinkpad20 Well the problem is that the data is only usefull from people who are already naturists. If I did it publicly, I would only get a small minority of people who are actualy naturists and thus able to answer my questions. However if I were to make this poll, I would structure the questions to avoid bias. E.G;
1: Did you have any body image issues or shyness about being nude infront of others before you became a naturist?
@Nightmare060 even though it's difficult to do publicly, that's the only way you could avoid the bias. By asking a question on a naturist board, you are pre-selecting for people who follow and believe in the efficacy of naturism. It would be impossible for such a survey to avoid bias, for a wide range of reasons. The best way to do it would be to get an approximately equal (and large) number of people who are naturists, were naturists, have never been naturists, etc.
@thinkpad20 Good points. The general premise of the question I'm trying to get an answer to is if naturism helps people overcome body image issues and gymnophobia. I'm not sure how it's really relevent to include none naturists who may not even admit that they have said gymnophobia in the first place in the data.
@Nightmare060 "I'm not sure how it's really relevent to include none naturists who may not even admit that they have said gymnophobia in the first place in the data."
Because it might just be that your study group would do the same thing, and not admit they have it, or a number of confounding results. It could be that there is a certain percentage of people who just don't have these issues, how would you know whether there was a decrease unless you ask the general population, etc, etc.
@Cyrathil I was actualy going to take into account that some people may not have been raised with body issues in the first place. I just need to find a good place to conduct said poll so I get a good variaty of results, and word the questions to avoid bias.
Perhaps I could poll 100 people who have tried naturism and had body issues beforehand and see out of those people the percentage of those that have improved?
But I once knew an anecdote that was correct.
applefrog111 3 months ago
@applefrog111
My grandfather used anecdotes every day of his life to make decisions, and he lived to be 117. My father swore by anecdotes, and he's the King of France today!
C0nc0rdance 3 months ago
@C0nc0rdance
My friend told me that he once slipped in a McDonald's on his way to his job at Wendy's.
applefrog111 3 months ago
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i am just watching this for susan summers jk
huraziel 7 months ago
This sums up why Im smart and many others are not so smart. You can apply this to Religion and all of the other crock of shit claims made by low IQ having peoples =)
FiveZylinderRacing 7 months ago
Large randomised controlled trials are beyond the financial resources of most natural forms of medicine. They are a great tool for organised medicine to spread this kind of philosophy. In the case of Chiropractic the N.Z. Royal Commission into Chiropractic, the highest form of legal inquiry after extensive examination and interviews of thousands of citizens found there was adequate evidence for Chiropractic to be included into the national health system. This was vigorously opposed by the A.M.A.
sol6erino 8 months ago
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Remember when you could watch a video without having to sit through a commercial?
Remember when music videos were uploaded by users and not VEVO
Remember when all the info was to the right of the video?
Remember you could rate a video 1-5 stars?
Remember the famous yellow subscribe button?
Remember when the users controlled the site and now corporations?
Post this in every video and lets start a youtube revolution!
Thumbs up to keep at the top of the page
seeqer66 10 months ago
Poker is NOT gambling! :)
R18111983 10 months ago
you'd agree with alternative medicine/placebo in cases "[...] where there is no effective treatement". and i think that's very often the case. people first turn to a classical doctor, and when that doesn't work, they try something else. ie with lower probability of success. quite rational to me.
brmbolec2 1 year ago
@brmbolec2
The problem being with people who spend thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars on ineffective treatments after being conned into believing something that won't work.
tskasa1 11 months ago
Although I would not mind being a professional lottery player, I have never won $100 on the lottery...lol... I agree to your points, but I also have seen benefit from such things as Chiropractic Medicine.(Which is actually based on science, just not molecular level) The basis on Chiropractic is more like a complete building where someone drives a car into your back wall. Medicine cannot make the wall heal itself, but having the studs and wall sheeting knocked back into place will help a lot.
keliwar 1 year ago
Obviously the lesson to take away is to take part in smaller studies as that's the only case in which homeopathy works. :-D
Maxdwolf 1 year ago
Judging from my email inbox, I appear to win a lottery every day. Maybe I should give up my day job...
mandolinic 1 year ago
5:55 Just say "If you have the choice between a placebo and real medicin take the real stuff since it works + has the placebo effect"
TheStrayCross 1 year ago
I am very confused as to why you would believe the official story of Anecdotal Evidence (3 buildings defy physics for the first time in history), and not use you apparent loyalty to basic science and Newtonian physics in regards to this issue, as has over 1200 professionals in the field have. Are you a professional in the field of architecture and engineering? Or are you a viral biologist? Please clarify this seeming conflict of logic.
TheMonkeyMedicine 1 year ago
The fallacy of insufficient statistics. The only three building EVER to fall at free fall acceleration due to fire, into their own footprint occurred on 911. Two buildings were designed to withstand hurricane force winds and impacts from multiple bowing 747's. According to Nist reports, were weekend by fire that could not melt steel , but only warp it. No internal beams existed after the fire. The other building was never hit by a plane. All 3 building fell exactly as ALL demolished buildings do
TheMonkeyMedicine 1 year ago
Comment removed
TheMonkeyMedicine 1 year ago
Can you point out the problems with large scale population studies please?
Kingfillins 1 year ago
Randi Backs Out of Challenge with Homeopath George Vithoulkas
Plz refer his web site.
newrosenewman 1 year ago
6:04
I'm diggin' the dude rocking the wolf mask. His friends are awesome to get that for him.
GabrieLaVedier 1 year ago
Joe Cada is a poker player, not a gambler.
AlwaysSunni 1 year ago
Alternative medicine is rampant in India. Even educated people there fall for crap. Deepak Chopra is an example of how good the marketing is for it.
Ramshobraja 1 year ago
Which 3 idiots disliked this video?
superustipak 1 year ago 2
Your friend Bob couldn't become a professional lottery player...
...but "BOB" is the ultimate professional lottery player.
You are his lottery ticket.
Let HIM scratch you and find a winner...
leeroynaggins 1 year ago
Thanks for making an already obvious concept more obvious
theraccoun 1 year ago
Heh, basic stats.
YzorYzor 1 year ago
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Haha, this is a great vid. I am not a fan of statistics (I can do it but I sure as hell dont like maths) but you seem to be a really great teacher. I hope you expand to your ability to the classrooms / lecture halls as well.
Sunhawk7ajj 1 year ago
Haha, this is a great vid. I am not a fan of statistics (I can do it but I sure as hell dont like maths) but you seem to be a really great teacher. I hope you expand to your ability to the classrooms / lecture halls as well.
Sunhawk7ajj 1 year ago
Thanks :)
Hreinn91 1 year ago
Don't forget the power of "inaction". Many a disease was cured by the simple application of this miracle of modern medicine that is so closely related to "placebo". All it takes is time.
RyuDarragh 1 year ago
Regarding perceptions of causality, studies show that Americans (western view) have more of a tendency to think history follows a linear path. If something is increasing/decreasing it is bound to continue to do the same over time. Easterners tend to view causality not in terms of historical continuity but expecting things to "turn around", time follows a circle. so if something is increasing, for an easterner it is soon to decrease. - From R. Nisbett's boook "Geography of Thought"
vanillasmile82 1 year ago
Excellent video.
Bear5177 1 year ago
Let's say there was a therapy that required belief, but that was more effective than simply believing, you make the mistake of not acknowledging this possibility. Nevertheless, such circumstance are conceivably possible, and they are also testable. Blind the patient as to whether they are receiving the treatment and/or use a sham treatment that the patient can not distinguish. The practitioners of "treatments that claim this as a requirement, cn not make the excuse that testing is impossible.
michalchik 1 year ago
Not yet finished wathcing it, but I was a bit put off by you giving poker as an example of this small sample size problem, which isn't quite right. Nice vid so far though:)
3landriel 1 year ago
1:53 The city that is allowed to prey on gullible people for it's livelihood. Fantastic isn't it?
scisex 1 year ago
All there is to say about potential side effects of REAL medicine?
The mantra of many a chemist or doctor - show me a drug with no side effects and I'll show you a drug that doesn't work.
We just aren't good enough at this stuff to do drugs without side effects and hell, a lot of treatments are borne OUT of unintended side effects - viagra being the obvious example.
ProphetTenebrae 1 year ago
Beautiful job as always, c0nc0rdance!
samthejokerman 1 year ago 14
I think one reason why anecdotal evidence is so powerful is because it generates a sort of mental picture which statistics just can't do. Also, in the reporting of cases, out-of-the-ordinary cases are more likely to be reported or focused on, thereby making them seem more likely than they really are (never mind reports of "cured" people who go on to die of their disease). Casino owners know this.
Rindrand 1 year ago
x*Anecdote=/=Data if x>=2
N3CR1S 1 year ago
Youtube needs to rename "VideoDebateForum"
pdblouin33 1 year ago
What do you think about marijuana as medicine?
jaydogg7253 1 year ago
8:01
mmmmmm...Tramadol
starguts 1 year ago
Good vid
sureup 1 year ago
I had this friend once who argued against people with perfect logic, and he was right. So I can't accept perfect logic.
Nah, I figured I'd try to be facetiously entertaining. Probably failed. Anyway, lovely video. Very intelligent, and totally on-the-mark.
Oron999 1 year ago
Gotto love Feynman <3
Swamoez0rs 1 year ago
Great vid, there are many people who would benefit from hearing this.
thunderpants10 1 year ago
Why you don't listen to meteorologist over climatologists when it comes to global warming. The "big picture" and foresight.
taliesinknol 1 year ago
Well now, isn't it true that mentality can give rise to changes in physiology? Isn't this precisely what necessitates the blind test? What if a certain treatment's effectiveness really does depend on the physiological conditions brought about by a patient's confidence in it?
Maybe it would be a good idea to test such proclaimed treatments under double-blind against placebo.
lazyperfectionist1 1 year ago
You are clearly biased in favor of evidence and reason.
lazyperfectionist1 1 year ago 22
@lazyperfectionist1 lol... I had to give you a thumbs up for that one. I wouldn't mind dealing with people with that bias.
ticketfan 1 year ago
@ticketfan Hmm. So what you are saying is that you are biased in favor of dealing with people who are biased in favor of evidence and reason?
Oh dear. That makes two of us.
lazyperfectionist1 1 year ago
I wonder how much of this rejection of evidence based medicine has to do with people's aversion/ignorance of Chaos/Complexity theories? Those theories have become invaluable to medicine and our understanding of biology, yet really haven't penetrated public understanding at all. People tend to still believe in miracle cures without side effects, spiritual healing, and self-help to keep the individual in "control" of their own well-being. Simple comforting delusions against a world of uncertainty.
Sinuev1 1 year ago
High five for hypothetical friends.
fillep 1 year ago
I actually know someone who studies homeopathy and is adamant that it cured her of cancer when doctors couldn't. She gets visibly upset if you question her. So thanks for another educated video, but I doubt passing it on to her will have any beneficial effect.
wjhopper 1 year ago
love this
PlanetBongoSan 1 year ago
Brilliant!
AuntieDiluvian 1 year ago
Great points. But I think something that you haven't considered is what if the studies just aren't there yet? For example, water fasting - it's done really well in the very limited studies that they've done. But that's just it - not a lot of study around the area, so the medical world is completely oblivious to it.
One of the best arguments made by alternative treatments like this is: there's no money in it, so not enough study has been done. THAT'S why the doctors don't know about it.
missmaria212 1 year ago
Fantastic. I especially appreciated your point about claims that you have to 'believe in the medicine' — so ridiculous isn't it: so the drug/procedure is inert until activated by belief?? Loved your choice of quotes at the end too.
TheraminTrees 1 year ago
Results not typical. Individual results may vary.
jbz3 1 year ago
EH? Homeopathic drugs have fewer side effects and fewer real effects. Aside for the placebo effect, the only real effect is the transfer of money.
happysplodie 1 year ago
Science based medicine would be a great idea but what we have today is business based medicine. This is true of both the traditional and alternative schools. While alternative medicine studies are smaller (as they have less money) & they tend to massage the interpretation of the data many pharmaceutical studies are outright falsified, partly BECAUSE more money has been spent on them and more money is at stake. Also, pharmaceuticals are often replaced as ineffective once their patents run out.
fluffymcdeath 1 year ago
@fluffymcdeath tha tis rubbish. Tell me what clinical studies are consistently falsified, which was approved by FDA or any other Western Government! Making a clinical study is one thing, passing it through the control mechanism a completely different one. I haven't seen a single study for alternative medecine which was performed to FDA requierments.
schmicc 1 year ago
You know poker involves enough skill that it can and is done professionally by many people. So that picture was probably a poor choice. You can't equate a poker game to slots or the lottery and it's distracting to the point of the video.
It does remind me however, that while the lottery is almost universally legal in the US and slots are becoming ever more widespread, gambling over cards remains the most restricted. Personally I'd much rather see poker rooms than slot machines in my state.
ArchNME 1 year ago
Good stuff. Glad there are intelligent and reasonable people out there still.
LordNapalm 1 year ago
well done my friend, well done.
tstockt 1 year ago
The trouble with comparing the effectiveness of placebos is that the effectiveness of the placebo correlates with the cost of it.
odysseus9672 1 year ago
This is a rather interesting topic, because my father works in what many could consider an alternative treatment: The effects of magnetic fields over living organisms. I was skeptic at first (and still am, but a little less), but he introduced me with some scientific evidence, such as cancer induced mice getting 50% less liver injuries when a magnetic field is applied (they also use control subjects)... Still, I usually don't believe in alternative medicine.
Ottmar555 1 year ago
@Ottmar555 what journal was this published in?
schmicc 1 year ago
From a small sample size you cannot conclude that the successes are necessarily attributed to the treatment. People recover from thier own immunity responses also. Additionally anecdotal information is selective & subjective. A producer of an alternative medicine will never report a failed subject. If four patients die of cancer, the one that survives tells the anecdote, even though they were all subject to the same treatment...Great video!
CHAS1422 1 year ago
Annother great and informative video c0nc0rdance!
Keep em coming :)
joshainglis 1 year ago
Haha, that's the guy from the Enzyte commercial. He's got a raging hard-on and is a professional lotto player. What a life...
Nice video btw
wafflethug 1 year ago
My favourite anecdotal story is: "My grandfather used to drive across lake (X) --or can now drive across lake (X)-- and I can't --or can--, therefore my area is seeing severe global warming --or cooling-- and therefore this is a proven concept...
kenandkids 1 year ago
The first ~2 mins also applies to the investment world. It's amazing how many investors have a good run of 2 or 3 years, and as a result lots of people listen to the investor and take his word as gold even after another 10 years or more of his failing to predict the market.
shanedk 1 year ago
With every video I am lucky enough to see of your i get happier to be Subscribed to you. You are Awesome:)
M1ST3RHYDE 1 year ago
Great video, as always!
FlyMario2 1 year ago
Brilliant as usual. Thanks.
shockferret 1 year ago
My personal anecdote: As a child I had terrible headaches 3-4 times a week. My mom took me to a chiropractor a few times and they stopped. I don't know what happened or if placebo can last for years on end but it somehow worked permanently. It's weird but whatever I don't have those god-awful headaches anymore.
LibjkeaIH 1 year ago
@LibjkeaIH Without knowing which of the several distinct, separately diagnosable types of headaches you had, you don't even have an anecdote. For instance, there's a vicious type of headache called a cluster headache (called that because they usually occur in clusters, several in quick succession). These stop without intervention and don't come back for many years, if ever.
evensgrey 1 year ago
Good physicians consider it unethical to prescribe placebos even though a placebo might be good enough to deal with a particular problem.
Could this be why some physicans over-prescribe antibiotics when the patient has a viral infection (against which antibiotics are ineffective)? Last time I had viral infection my doctor claimed my lungs sounded as though I MIGHT have an opportunistic bacterial infection and prescribed antibiotics. Genuine or a justification for a placebo?
bdf2718 1 year ago
@bdf2718 Your doctor was probably doing 1 of 3 things:
1: He prescribed a drug to treat what he thought was a real situation (an opportunistic infection).
2: He was expecting you to expect a prescription and be upset if you didn't get one, and was taking the easy way out.
3: He was practicing defensive medicine to minimize the risk of a law suit (possibly at the behest of his liability insurance carrier, to get a lower premium, since those premiums are often HUGE).
evensgrey 1 year ago
@evensgrey
Opportunistic infection, possibly. He ought to know me better by now than that I expect a prescription (placebo?) for everything. We don't have defensive medicine here.
bdf2718 1 year ago
@bdf2718 Are you in the private system, or are you stuck in the failing National Health?
evensgrey 1 year ago
@evensgrey
I'm in the NHS, which is far from failing. It has inefficiencies that could be improved upon, but it beats what the US has. Costs are a good deal lower. Outcomes are a good deal better. These are documented facts. Most of the developed world has far lower costs and far better outcomes than the US. Even Cuba does better on both counts.
bdf2718 1 year ago
@bdf2718 Do you actually have anything to back up those claims, or just the usual cooked and fabricated numbers put out by the grossly overpriced, under-performing bureaucracy?
evensgrey 1 year ago
@evensgrey
Google is your friend. Google will give you the numbers. Not numbers produced by the NHS but by independent sources giving global figures.
Hell, even the CIA World Factbook will give you the same information, but it's more work to make the comparisons.
Oh, and I'll take the NHS over what you have any day of the week. The French will take their system. The Germans theirs. The Italians theirs. And the Cubans theirs. Because what you have is broken.
bdf2718 1 year ago
@bdf2718 So, you're saying that you not only don't have anything supporting you, but you already know you're wrong.
I have the misfortune to be afflicted with the Canadian medical system, which while much worse than the US system, isn't anything like as lethal to it users as the UK system. Or do you think waiting several months for surgery is GOOD for people?
evensgrey 1 year ago
@evensgrey
You complete and utter fuckwit. Youtube censors posts with URLs, you twat. So I told you to google it, which would prove what a complete twat you are. Even pointed you at the CIA World Factboook.
You are a troll, a liar, or a fuckwit.
bdf2718 1 year ago
@bdf2718 Projecting doesn't help you support your false claims that the best basis for a medical system is massive violence.
Compilations of statistics that come from phony sources isn't able to help you either.
evensgrey 1 year ago
@evensgrey
Nope, but compilations of evidence from honest sources is going to help me.
I win. You fail. Big fucking time. Major fucking fail. These statistics are compiled by many independent sources. I win. You fail. It's as simple as that. You're entitled to your own opinions, however wrong they are; you're not entitled to your own facts.
bdf2718 1 year ago
@bdf2718 I don't see why you think that the fact that the HN kills so many people by being so slow to treat them helps you. Or is it that you think that killing people is the purpose of government? Before you start lying about the failure that is NH again, you might want to look at how many people die from pneumonia while waiting the MONTHS it takes to get a hip replacement. You can put essentially ALL those deaths on the NH's incredibly slow service.
evensgrey 1 year ago
@evensgrey
Oh my! How much bullshit can one person generate in a single post?
The NHS is slow. The US health system doesn't cover everyone. Overall, NHS wins. Cheaper. Better outcomes. Longer lives. Less infant mortality. Etc.
You ignorant fucktard. Unable to even google for this stuff. Twat.
bdf2718 1 year ago
@bdf2718 I was waiting for you to bring up the infant mortality fraud. That's one of the most obviously cooked of their fakeries. They get it that low by not counting the babies most likely to die, such as those with extremely low birth weight. the US counts it as a live birth if it's not already dead when it hits the air. The UK only counts it if it's not likely to die.
Of course, YOU think dieing of pneumonia instead of getting a hip replacement is a 'better outcome'.
evensgrey 1 year ago
@evensgrey
I count not dying as a better outcome than dying. Most of the developed world beats the US in that respect, at ALL ages.
You're lying and bullshitting. I call troll.
bdf2718 1 year ago
@bdf2718 Of COURSE the troll calls troll. People who declare armed robbery to be inherently morally good always want to ignore reality that way.
evensgrey 1 year ago
@evensgrey YOU' GOT PWNED KID HAHAHA XD
Sav3TheWorld 1 year ago
@Sav3TheWorld So, what hallucinogens are you using?
evensgrey 1 year ago
@evensgrey
Depends upon your definition of "effective." Some people take "no better than placebo" to mean ineffective. But placebo is better than no medical intervention at all. The correct measures are "is placebo good enough in this case" and "is it cost effective."
bdf2718 1 year ago
@bdf2718 as far as I know, doctors are not allowed to prescribe Placebo if there is a life threatening situation.
schmicc 1 year ago
@schmicc
Depends upon your jurisdiction. Depends upon medical ethics within that jurisdiction. In the US you're right. In China, the shit-sellers have almost equal status with real doctors.
I do wonder if some doctors prescribe treatments that probably are irrelevant but night not be in some cases just to get around placebo rules.
bdf2718 1 year ago
This has been flagged as spam show
what is your view on acupuncture?
azumaninjay 1 year ago
@azumaninjay
Your best source for clinical evidence is the Cochrane Library. Here's what they say:
"A small analgesic effect of acupuncture was found, which seems to lack clinical relevance and cannot be clearly distinguished from bias. Whether needling at acupuncture points, or at any site, reduces pain independently of the psychological impact of the treatment ritual is unclear."
BMJ. 2009 Jan 27;338:a3115
Not dismissed out of hand, but can't be demonstrated to be effective.
C0nc0rdance 1 year ago 3
@C0nc0rdance Oh, I had thought it to be more effective then that. Guess this is why we have large size studies.
mordinvan 1 year ago
My one problem with your advice is that I've never had a trusted physician (ok, technically I have no physician at all at the moment). I am too sceptical. I've also had some bad experiences where I asked the doctor I was dealing with for sources and statistics. They exhibited a sad lack of knowledge in both areas. Doctors may be better educated than us in both specifics and critical thinking, but they still seem highly error prone.
Maxdwolf 1 year ago
Thanks for posting
no1saphead 1 year ago
Excellent video as always.
Kni7es 1 year ago
I never buy any drugs or medicine with the word 'homeopathic' on them
WKaliberr 1 year ago
@WKaliberr drugs and medicines couldn't possibly have the word homeopathic on them. Not legally any way.
lennyhipp 1 year ago
Another brilliant video
WKaliberr 1 year ago
Quality food here for every monkey brain.
thruthem 1 year ago
I agree with your video completely. Very incisive, very balanced.
I am wondering why some "alternative" therapies do seem to work (albeit within certain, perhaps unknown parameters). I myself have an anecdote regarding a Chinese herbal mixture. I took it to get gat a friend off my back about what I presumed was another useless herbal therapy. I wasn't expecting it to work, yet it somehow addressed the problem I had rather specifically. It did work.
Why do these things happen?
abyssquick 1 year ago
@abyssquick
Chinese medicine is a weird one. From what I can tell (and that's a huge disclaimer) it's a mixture of actual effective folk medicine, placebo, and just cultural practice. Like chicken soup with a little Tamiflu in it. I'm still digging into it, but it's not all rubbish. One amusing thing is that it seems to be much more effective in Chinese populations than Western. Is that diet, environment, genetics, or belief? I don't know.
Glad it helped, though.
C0nc0rdance 1 year ago
@C0nc0rdance "One amusing thing is that it seems to be much more effective in Chinese populations than Western. Is that diet, environment, genetics, or belief? I"
Hmmmm. Weird! Wonder if our culture by and large not believing in this stuff might throw off our evaluation of it. Much of what we have deemed 'placebo effect' depends on the attitude of the patient AND the physician We seem to totally ignore that and its hard to measure double blind.
mrkurt13 1 year ago
@mrkurt13 it's actually exactly what you measure in a double blind with the control group.
schmicc 1 year ago
@C0nc0rdance - an excellent analogy as in fact Tamiflu is isolated from something in Chinese Star Anise (& other Asian illicium species). Chinese medicines follow an odd breakdown of bodily constitution- hot/cold, interior/exterior, dry/wet, along with a cyclical understanding of organ systems (wood, fire, water, earth, air). Much like religion, they have "herbal master works" laid down eons ago, by people of legend, works which are only ever referenced, but which are unquestioned. Odd indeed.
abyssquick 1 year ago
@abyssquick actually, Tamiflu is synthesized in big labs and one of many starting products (shikimic acid) is isolated from star anise since it cannot be synthesised easily.
schmicc 1 year ago
@schmicc it was more a remark on the fitting analogy, rather than on the exact process. Though I appreciate the detail.
abyssquick 1 year ago
@C0nc0rdance I have this view of Chinese medicine, and most modern medicine for that matter, is this.... All medicine came from something in nature, whether it was in substance, or in idea. All natural remedies aren't "bad" because most drugs that treat human illnesses come from nature, at it's core.
squirreljester2 1 year ago
@C0nc0rdance genetics play certainly a role, if you want to make a clinical study the background of your participants plays a major role. A lot of herbs have effective compounds occuring naturaly. However, you usually cannot rely on concentration and have little data to side effects. There are a lot of pharmaceutical companies investing in checking out these "old" remmedies in order to find new treatments.
schmicc 1 year ago
@abyssquick Honestly, I can't see how that could fail. It was a given that the problem you have with your friend pestering you would stop if you took his advice no matter what it was.
TheBenEEeee 1 year ago
With my cynicism towards the herbal "natural" health industry (and I can go on for days about the problems with the industry), I was completely surprised it did work. I was expecting impotent well-marketed junk like 99%+ of herbal products.
Oddly, I have a lot of friends into the natural health thing. Enthusiastic, happy-go-lucky people who are prone to buying whatever fluffy marketing falls their way. I occasionally try things I am given. I am known as the cynical "skeptic," the "unbeliever."
abyssquick 1 year ago
@abyssquick No I wasn't making a comment about yourself - I was trying to be funny by twisting the way you structured your sentence; It made it seem as if you were wondering how you managed to get your friend of your back by taking his advice, instead of asking how chinese medicine works. Of course, lacking tone of voice and body language the joke does not appear to have been communicated.
TheBenEEeee 1 year ago
@TheBenEEeee The impersonality of the internet harbors deeper obstructions - you see I am also autistic (asperger's, or "butt-sandwich"). So, I rarely pick up on any 'tone' unless it is overtly expressed - whether written or spoken. It's all good.
abyssquick 1 year ago
@abyssquick im not the vid maker but i can suggest stuff haha, placebo's will still have the placebo effect if some very small part of you wants it to, it could even be a subconscious thought, you wanting it to work and not knowing you wanted it, im curious did it only work in the short term? because sometimes the body will administer natural pain killers to deal with certain pains. and some natural medicine does have root in undiscovered science, thats always a possibility
brennanww 1 year ago
@brennanww Here's the deal - I had been seeing a chiropractor for lower back pain for years. I really didn't mind doing this, but a friend of mine insisted I try a Chinese herb mixture specifically for loosening lower back muscles. So, I would drink the tea, and within 2 hours, the muscles would loosen, and the pain would subside. After a few months of a daily tea, the pain began to fade entirely and now I no longer see a doctor about it. Hasn't bothered me in years. That's the story.
abyssquick 1 year ago
@brennanww All I can say really is that whatever it was, it worked for me. Doesn't mean it would work forsomeone else. Placebo? Who knows. I certainly didn't believe the effects when I felt them. Especially since I had far more "faith" in chiropractic care for lower back problems (the only studied affliction it can really help with).
abyssquick 1 year ago
C0nc0rdance FUCK yeah!
applefrog111 1 year ago
an anecdote I always found fascinating was the spas at lourdes and the supposed miraculous healings. Tens of thousands of curings/healings have been claimed, yet the Catholic church has investigated and recognizes 67 as being genuine miraculous healings. A conservative estimate of 200M visitors since 1860, SURELY .000000335% could be expected to get better by chance alone!? Where are the studies that show how many of the 67 ALSO rec'd conventional medicines?
lennyhipp 1 year ago
(cont) WHERE are the studies of how many people visited and actually got SICKER as a result? I bet my left testicle it's a LOT more than .000000335%! Think about it: people with infectious diseases, infections, etc. (think AIDS, leprosy, pox, STDs, influenza etc.) Some people bathe in the water, some actually drink it! I would love to see some follow-ups from visitors there!
lennyhipp 1 year ago
@lennyhipp Just another anecdote about Lourdes : It is the most wanted place by 'gendarmes' to spend their career (gendarmes are similar to police but with a military status). Why is it ? Because they get a bonus on their salary everytime they carry away a dead body and Lourdes has the highest mortality rate in the country due to the number of visitors in a very poor state. I said "anecdote" but they place their bet based on actual statistics.
synsei1 1 year ago
@synsei1 Very, very interesting. Any websites you can point me to so I can read more about this? How can i confirm this and make sure it's not just a local legend?? This C0nc0rdance vid has inspired me to make my own video on anecdotes! :)
lennyhipp 1 year ago
In my opinion, anecdotes are never good for making generalizations, but they are good at giving some slight exposure to reality. For instance, someone who makes a blanket statement about race, poverty, violence, etc, can be argued against by anecdote. Good at disproving claims, not good at proving them.
andid 1 year ago
It puzzles me why people would fall for the homeopathy stuff. WTF?
papafox 1 year ago
@papafox Yea, me too. Never even considered it.
zapo147 1 year ago
The last thing you said was that the best source for advice is a trusted physician, but the problem is that for the people who are really into this stuff (anti-vaccers, homeopathy practitioners, etc) there is no such thing as a "trusted physician".
They are under the eyes of "Big Pharma", and the only trustworthy ones are the ones who agree with them.
One girl I had a discussion with said that most physicians were just wanting their paycheck, and didn't really care.
Cyrathil 1 year ago
awesome video. great stuff. thanks.
What is the difference between information used for prediction (e.g. facts independent of us) and information used for promises (e.g. facts which rely upon our own action/implementation?
Professoranton 1 year ago
@Professoranton/watch?v=E7AeyjvedXM
Professoranton 1 year ago
great vid, I think we have all seen commercials with only anecdotal "proof" i think just seeing the face of someone that it worked makes us all want to believe someone
viperstrike0 1 year ago
once again your videos are amongst the highest quality and informative on the internet. You always leaving more.... Speaking of which, When's the next one already!?? :)
lennyhipp 1 year ago
Another superb and informative video.
JRChadwick 1 year ago
I had a believer in homeopathy tell me something interesting a few days ago. He thinks that all medicine is placebo. People on clinical trials receiving the treatments have worse side effects than those using the placebo, so they're more likely to believe it works and therefore more likely to do better.
I was wondering if you knew of any clinical trials or studies that address this claim. I assume it's been studied, but I don't have an answer for him right now.
duras 1 year ago
@duras clinical studies with for example antibiotics cannot be done "against" Placebo. This would be ethically wrong! They are done "against" existing antibiotics and have to show a better rate for healing, less side effects or any other beneficial effects (oral instead of intravenous etc.) in order to be allowed on the market. Besides, clinically tested compounds were shown to be effective on a biochemical level, cellular level and in lab animals. See what he will respond to that ;)
schmicc 1 year ago
well done.... identifying similar patterns in gambling and non chemical treatments is a great tact...
GoatOfTheMountains 1 year ago
Awesome!!
frequencysoftware 1 year ago
Have you seen Ben Goldacre's videos on the placebo effect:
Made for NHS Choice:
watch?v=wsFTgirKXHk
and
watch?v=O1Q3jZw4FGs
You might like them.
johncrwarner 1 year ago 4
@johncrwarner
Brilliant! Thanks for bringing these to my attention. His assessment is spot-on, and shows how we can learn from alternative medicine, how it can be of benefit to evidence based medicine.
C0nc0rdance 1 year ago
@C0nc0rdance and for a less scientific but very funny "beat poem" on the subject - see Tim Minchin's Storm:
watch?v=V0W7Jbc_Vhw
I will PM you with info about Ben Goldacre's blog
johncrwarner 1 year ago
@C0nc0rdance i always liked Penn & Teller's take on it too:
watch?v=MzjoKhBklYg
lennyhipp 1 year ago
Enjoyed goldacre's description of the color of the pill, or even qty of sugar water pills being more effective. another interesting thing about placebos is more expensive ones work better as well, google "Expensive Placebo Works Better Than Cheap One". The power of the mind is incredible. I've heard that certain people allergic to something having their skin swabbed with sugar water (but told it was what they're allergic to) and breaking out in a rash!
lennyhipp 1 year ago
Hanfeizi (280 - 233 BCE) spotted this a couple of millennia ago:
"There was a farmer of Song who tilled the land, and in his field was a stump. One day a rabbit, racing across the field, bumped into the stump, broke its neck, and died. Thereupon the farmer laid aside his plow and took up watch beside the stump, hoping that he would get another rabbit in the same way. But he got no more rabbits, and instead became the laughingstock of Song."
johncrwarner 1 year ago 10
My magic book says x is true.
My brother's magic book says x is true.
My neighbor's slightly different magic book still says x is true.
So x is true and I don't have to listen to logic anymore.
Gotta love that method of non thought.
Darkfirebrand 1 year ago
@Darkfirebrand Unfortunately, big religions like Christianity and Islam are immune from this sort of fallacy, simply because they have power in numbers. Nearly half the world believes that the Christian god exists, so to apply this method to Christianity means that there is more than a 50% chance that they are correct.
videogamer810 1 year ago
@videogamer810 nah... pretty sure beating it into kids "Believe in this man or YOU BURN FOREVER" qualifies as contaminating the study pool.
Darkfirebrand 1 year ago
Derren Brown did a show called "The System" that really exemplifies the effects of anecdotes. I recommend. you can find it on youtube
Neeboopsh 1 year ago
Sis-in-law was cured from a heart condition. She didn't prostrate before science but joined a Baptist group - along with my brother. And along with substantial donations every month.
StopSpamming1 1 year ago
Hey I was wondering if you could do a video on your thoughts regarding things like the infected vaccines in africa, the complaints people have about "big pharma" and such. I am not really sure how it all relates and was hoping a clear up.
Thanks.
Shalek 1 year ago
You know what cures my headaches and backpains? Sleeping, playing on my computor, taking a shit etc etc etc.
Headaches and backpain cures itself after a while. If you always drink orange juice when you get headaches you could start to believe that citrus cures headaches, the same is true for lovers of chiropractic.
TheProf1988 1 year ago
Great video, but let me add an obvious additonal point -- a percentage, and I would say the majority, of anecdotal reports that alternative medicines are effective are out and out lies, fabricated by criminal fraudsters to help them in the bunko scheme to cheat sick people out of their money. So, generalizing with thee reports becomes much worse than merely a hasty conclusion, and no amount of lies add up to actual evidence.
garywatson 1 year ago
that DNA at the end always creeps me out, I don't know why :(
showABCshow 1 year ago
love it love it love it.
gouranga2007 1 year ago
i love bob's picture! This was a great video!
LJonesy2 1 year ago
(cont final part). I am thinking of taking a poll on skinbook (like facebook, but for naturists) to see if there is at least any corrolation or relation at all to the loss of body image issues and the practice of naturism. What do you think would be a good sample size of people, to avoid it coming off as Anecdotal evidence?
Nightmare060 1 year ago
@Nightmare060 sample size there wouldn't be your issue there; you'd have a considerable bias because you would be doing this on that kind of site.
thinkpad20 1 year ago
@thinkpad20 Well the problem is that the data is only usefull from people who are already naturists. If I did it publicly, I would only get a small minority of people who are actualy naturists and thus able to answer my questions. However if I were to make this poll, I would structure the questions to avoid bias. E.G;
1: Did you have any body image issues or shyness about being nude infront of others before you became a naturist?
2: Do you still have these issues now?
Nightmare060 1 year ago
@Nightmare060 even though it's difficult to do publicly, that's the only way you could avoid the bias. By asking a question on a naturist board, you are pre-selecting for people who follow and believe in the efficacy of naturism. It would be impossible for such a survey to avoid bias, for a wide range of reasons. The best way to do it would be to get an approximately equal (and large) number of people who are naturists, were naturists, have never been naturists, etc.
thinkpad20 1 year ago
@thinkpad20 Good points. The general premise of the question I'm trying to get an answer to is if naturism helps people overcome body image issues and gymnophobia. I'm not sure how it's really relevent to include none naturists who may not even admit that they have said gymnophobia in the first place in the data.
Nightmare060 1 year ago
@Nightmare060 "I'm not sure how it's really relevent to include none naturists who may not even admit that they have said gymnophobia in the first place in the data."
Because it might just be that your study group would do the same thing, and not admit they have it, or a number of confounding results. It could be that there is a certain percentage of people who just don't have these issues, how would you know whether there was a decrease unless you ask the general population, etc, etc.
Cyrathil 1 year ago
@Cyrathil I was actualy going to take into account that some people may not have been raised with body issues in the first place. I just need to find a good place to conduct said poll so I get a good variaty of results, and word the questions to avoid bias.
Perhaps I could poll 100 people who have tried naturism and had body issues beforehand and see out of those people the percentage of those that have improved?
Nightmare060 1 year ago