hi i am a new subscriber-i appreciate all of your insight! i am not an economist but i am desperately trying to understand all of what is going on. is it possible economic4caster for you to explain a little more for example why the federal reserve purchases debt to suppress rates on treasury bonds-how does that work??
Sure, it is simple supply and demand. If there is low demand for treasury bonds then interest rates go up to attract buyers. The Government pays you higher interest for buying debt. So when the Federal Reserve buys treasury bonds they soak up some of the excess supply which pushes interest rates down. They print money and buy debt.
Remember the Fed is buying treasuries to surpress interest rates. Rising rates will choke the economy. Rates can rise in a growing and stable economy but there is no sign of either happening here.
Great video. I'm a first time viewer. I like your clear succinct style. I 've stocked up on gold silver and food to the best of my ability to date, need to do more.
Just got touched by the downturn, my company has reduced all hours by 10 to 20% for everyone. So its getting real for me now.
I've put in a garden and am buying a CSA Farm Share for this season, suggest others do the same. It will be good to get to know your local farmers and support them so they can help support you latter!
They will lose their butts. The US has no way of producing there way out. It would be like standing on the deck of the Titanic with a bucket and trying to bailout the water. The ship is going down and it will take US debt holders with it!
China is Estimated to have 3Trillion in Currency Reserves Tied up! In the American Markets!China has little Choice but to BUY Government BONDS!.To keep the Value of the American Dollar of Value!Chinas prayin for a Quick Revovery!
The common perception is that China holds the key to the dollar's valuation but is forced to support it. That seems like a pretty scary consolation to me.
But the really scary thing is that many small countries such as Vietnam could dump their dollar holdings and start a rush for the door. It only takes one steer to start a stampede, and the herd is restless tonight.
What is also important to realize is that once the bond market starts collapsing, ALMOST ALL of the foreign reserves will flood into the united states, immediately buying up everything in sight and completely killing our ability to import.anything.
This will happen within hours once it starts. Think of a bank run when people try to be the first to cash out before everyone else. A flash point is reached where the world economy flips from using dollars to no longer using dollars,
Very well said Dziaji. Anyone who has not positioned themselves before the event will be unable to get out once it begins. People forget how fear can change public perception in the blink of an eye.
Worst yet, the markets are manipulated by the government. The government regulators know this and do nothing to correct the manipulation. Why? Because our political leaders are afraid. And our politicians believe they know what is best for us. They don't want to lose power and control. It's as simple as that. Let's get rid of them and vote in some real leaders.
They will lose their butts. Check out my video on bonds and the economy. This will give you some idea of the impact that rising interest rates have on bonds.
The US to default on debt openly or by devaluing foreign debt through inflation which way is the only question. Either way will offer only one answer, the loss of of the buying power of the dollar, this is currently happening in an ordered relatively slow way but could easily become a run (rapid loss of value). Tim is right in trying to get you to prepare for it. Personally I like real physical silver (not ETFs!), don't get caught holding US dollar cash, equities or bonds!
Exactly right. Exactly right. All eyes should be on the efforts of Bernanke to keep LT interest rates low. He's gonna fail at this and I'm just so glad he will be caught holding the smoking gun!
the danger of the bailout bubble bursting is so real! I mean, how much longer can the Fed artificially prevent this from happening by buying up T-bonds...?!
It's May. Plant a garden -you might want to use heirloom varieties. Then you could save the seeds after harvest. If this problem goes away, you have lost nothing.
Also, the US can certainly get through a collapse of the dollar. The worst hurt would be the ones on fixed incomes. Afterwards, though, we would be able to sell things again to the world.
After reaing Greenspan's recent book, it becomes clear that the worst risks cannot be spoken publically.
Excellent video! You convey economics in very practical terms. It is a social science. When these so called economists come out with statistics they forget that it is human beings that they are dealing with. So when GDP suddenly tanks when it should be growing, people get very anxious. I think hyperinflation is just around the corner. There are going to be shortages and they produced too much money out of thin air. What do you think?
More and more people are waking up and buying the necessities. This will cause shortages just like we have been seeing in gold, silver, and ammo. I believe bulk food items will be next. Then that is when the panic buying will set in.
That is the million dollar question. It all depends on what path the Government chooses. If they raise interest rates and contract the money supply we get a deflationary depression. If they try and print their way out, we get an inflationary depression.
Can you say silver ?
Glsfutrs 2 years ago
Yikes!!!!
izzyizod 2 years ago
10-Yr T-Note: 3.9495
vassilischr 2 years ago
hi i am a new subscriber-i appreciate all of your insight! i am not an economist but i am desperately trying to understand all of what is going on. is it possible economic4caster for you to explain a little more for example why the federal reserve purchases debt to suppress rates on treasury bonds-how does that work??
enterthematrix777 2 years ago
Sure, it is simple supply and demand. If there is low demand for treasury bonds then interest rates go up to attract buyers. The Government pays you higher interest for buying debt. So when the Federal Reserve buys treasury bonds they soak up some of the excess supply which pushes interest rates down. They print money and buy debt.
Economic4caster 2 years ago
thank you for the explanation!!
enterthematrix777 2 years ago
Doesn't the increase in bond rates mean an increase in confidence about the future.
My recommendation is to avoid gold, and only have a little silver.
If there is a bad collapse gold and silver will be useless. Tinned and dried food and toilet paper are much better.
Also, I can't really see where hyper-inflation is going to come from, surly deflation is more probable.
And won't most of the world pull together to save the USA's arse if things get too bad
maxine2win 2 years ago
Remember the Fed is buying treasuries to surpress interest rates. Rising rates will choke the economy. Rates can rise in a growing and stable economy but there is no sign of either happening here.
Economic4caster 2 years ago
Great video. I'm a first time viewer. I like your clear succinct style. I 've stocked up on gold silver and food to the best of my ability to date, need to do more.
Just got touched by the downturn, my company has reduced all hours by 10 to 20% for everyone. So its getting real for me now.
I've put in a garden and am buying a CSA Farm Share for this season, suggest others do the same. It will be good to get to know your local farmers and support them so they can help support you latter!
Perceiving 2 years ago
ok I just got to 2:40 ! I guess that's a yes!
CelticReject 2 years ago
Would you advise buying gold and silver? This is what I have been doing. Do you think it's a good idea?
CelticReject 2 years ago
They will lose their butts. The US has no way of producing there way out. It would be like standing on the deck of the Titanic with a bucket and trying to bailout the water. The ship is going down and it will take US debt holders with it!
Economic4caster 2 years ago
China is Estimated to have 3Trillion in Currency Reserves Tied up! In the American Markets!China has little Choice but to BUY Government BONDS!.To keep the Value of the American Dollar of Value!Chinas prayin for a Quick Revovery!
triumphelf 2 years ago
The common perception is that China holds the key to the dollar's valuation but is forced to support it. That seems like a pretty scary consolation to me.
But the really scary thing is that many small countries such as Vietnam could dump their dollar holdings and start a rush for the door. It only takes one steer to start a stampede, and the herd is restless tonight.
frgtmygld 2 years ago
What does it mean to the guy on the street, will construction jobs that are funded by bonds, be froze.
idahotandj 2 years ago
What is also important to realize is that once the bond market starts collapsing, ALMOST ALL of the foreign reserves will flood into the united states, immediately buying up everything in sight and completely killing our ability to import.anything.
This will happen within hours once it starts. Think of a bank run when people try to be the first to cash out before everyone else. A flash point is reached where the world economy flips from using dollars to no longer using dollars,
Dziaji 2 years ago
Very well said Dziaji. Anyone who has not positioned themselves before the event will be unable to get out once it begins. People forget how fear can change public perception in the blink of an eye.
frgtmygld 2 years ago
Worst yet, the markets are manipulated by the government. The government regulators know this and do nothing to correct the manipulation. Why? Because our political leaders are afraid. And our politicians believe they know what is best for us. They don't want to lose power and control. It's as simple as that. Let's get rid of them and vote in some real leaders.
budb11 2 years ago 3
Great info - saw bond action on Thursday - mainstream media not focused/doesn't understand the importance.
cptchamp3 2 years ago 2
What happens to those holding 10 and 30 year bonds (I have a family member that is holding a lot of money in these)?
izzyizod 2 years ago
They will lose their butts. Check out my video on bonds and the economy. This will give you some idea of the impact that rising interest rates have on bonds.
Economic4caster 2 years ago
Thanks for the info, I'll check out the vids.
izzyizod 2 years ago
Excellent Vid! I sub'd. Thanks!
izzyizod 2 years ago
The US to default on debt openly or by devaluing foreign debt through inflation which way is the only question. Either way will offer only one answer, the loss of of the buying power of the dollar, this is currently happening in an ordered relatively slow way but could easily become a run (rapid loss of value). Tim is right in trying to get you to prepare for it. Personally I like real physical silver (not ETFs!), don't get caught holding US dollar cash, equities or bonds!
farliecharlie 2 years ago 2
Great info, and thanks for explaining things well for us novice listeners.
markymarkuss777 2 years ago
Exactly right. Exactly right. All eyes should be on the efforts of Bernanke to keep LT interest rates low. He's gonna fail at this and I'm just so glad he will be caught holding the smoking gun!
2012RealityGuy 2 years ago
I like construtions worker who put it more clear then those clowns at CNBC guys who always say "worst is over etc"
drakflyga 2 years ago 3
Quick, concise, and accurate. Great video, I'm subscribing.
1750621 2 years ago 3
bonds are collapsing (Code TLT) is getting hammered right now. Mr. Schiff called it, so i take it seriously.
endlessmountain 2 years ago
the danger of the bailout bubble bursting is so real! I mean, how much longer can the Fed artificially prevent this from happening by buying up T-bonds...?!
mahdiya 2 years ago
More and more people are lining up to sell to the Fed. The bond market will quickly consume there ability to buy. The game is just about over!
Economic4caster 2 years ago
It's May. Plant a garden -you might want to use heirloom varieties. Then you could save the seeds after harvest. If this problem goes away, you have lost nothing.
Also, the US can certainly get through a collapse of the dollar. The worst hurt would be the ones on fixed incomes. Afterwards, though, we would be able to sell things again to the world.
After reaing Greenspan's recent book, it becomes clear that the worst risks cannot be spoken publically.
the3hol 2 years ago
God advice the3hol: I put in the garden..food not flowers.. small yet and not subsistence level..but its a start.
rexoid 2 years ago
Excellent video! You convey economics in very practical terms. It is a social science. When these so called economists come out with statistics they forget that it is human beings that they are dealing with. So when GDP suddenly tanks when it should be growing, people get very anxious. I think hyperinflation is just around the corner. There are going to be shortages and they produced too much money out of thin air. What do you think?
Lynchian74 2 years ago
More and more people are waking up and buying the necessities. This will cause shortages just like we have been seeing in gold, silver, and ammo. I believe bulk food items will be next. Then that is when the panic buying will set in.
Economic4caster 2 years ago
The whole thing could collapse very quickly. The chaos theory in action.
Lynchian74 2 years ago
if the bond market crashes .. what happens to interest rates ?
roryniland 2 years ago
They will go through the roof!
Economic4caster 2 years ago
Would this create Deflation rather than hyper-inflation like many are predicting?
markymarkuss777 2 years ago
That is the million dollar question. It all depends on what path the Government chooses. If they raise interest rates and contract the money supply we get a deflationary depression. If they try and print their way out, we get an inflationary depression.
Economic4caster 2 years ago