Harry Dent May 2009 Update

[TheSnoopy1750]

In May 2007, just a few months before the peak, Harry Dent forecasted Dow 20,000 by the year 2009.

Like any good charlatan would, Dent took his 18 page article off his website.

[novhyce]

Are you kidding SandraMiddleton. This guy predicted that the dow would reach 40000 by 2009 I dont know if he doesnt have a conscience or what but he just comes out with more predictions and not a word about this as it has turned out a very horribly wrong forecast. This is straight out deception

[TheSnoopy1750]

@novhyce You are right about Harry Dent - you could get a more accurate market forecast from your cat.

Dent is a smart charlatan in that he predicts often so he can always trumpet a success - only the most gullible would invest based on this guy's "wisdom".

[MACKATTACK1970]

This man is a liar and a con man.

He lies and takes credit for what happened after the fact. This same fool claimed that by 2010 at latest the Dow would be at 40,000.

He is a con man. Don't believe me? Good! Look it up yourself and do the research on this con man yourself.

[megawavez]

Hmm.....

[horny4Utube]

There will be one more bubble. The bubble in the dollar. Dollar mania is coming.

[Ellipsis10]

@horny4Utube you mean gold mania?

[youthinksoo]

New update! Please!

[manojsugathan]

What happened to Dow 40,000, wait Dow 32,000, Wait Dow 25,000, wait Dow 15,000...

Now great depression!

I listen to Den't videos when I wan to have a hearty laugh!

[SilverRose09]

It is happenning, watch these videos:

/watch?v=DlGgI6z-fQA

/watch?v=4m75VTHEzcA

/watch?v=YPXncTuwFIE

[karenbcz22]

This is OCTOBER.

Please Update.

Oh! BTW ... Congrats, Mr. Dent, on your DOW call.

We topped @ 9829, and we're headed down.

[belbel77]

when is your next update?

[borntobewilder9]

I hear so many people saying that we'll not see a Depression. I do! But, okay I'll go along with you for a spell. What do you suppose is next? Just look at the economics in terms of unemployment rate, falling GDP, continued foreclosures from the opt-arm era into 2013. What do you think is next? The artificial Stimulus and Cash For Clunkers are merely band-aids that don't even work. What a joke!

[florgat91]

what about precious metals ?

[horny4Utube]

sell them now. cash will get scarce and gold will be sold.

[mainesprocket63]

The inflationary boom is just getting started. China's economy is starting to boom again not because of US spending but due to Chinese spending. Chinese are taking out loans from US Banks in US dollars. Brilliant! The dollar is sure to head south as the US debt spending is unsustainable. Hell, 1/3 of the US tax revenue this year will be used to service just the interest on the current debt.

[exchangerhk]

GO ON..

After each short slump, the other day will rebounce twice of the slump of yesterday's. Most people who bought H-Shares (China stock listed in HK stock exchange) had earned in "times".

The property market are soars for 5% EVERY month from April of this year (2009), regardless the unemployment rate, non-domestic export still at low level.

Every thing drives me to suspect that whether the "great depresssion" will really be "ahead" or the "great depression" had been a past tense.

[exchangerhk]

I am starting to suspect the correctness of the book. I am a stock trader in Hong Kong. In the recent 5 month, the Major index (HengSeng Index) rebounced for more than 60% for the known lowest point.

And now, everyday the investors are yelling for "go go go..." and the sentiment in the market are hotly optimistic.

continue at next post...

[RebelTraders]

Good afternoon Harry,

Thank you for the update. I agree with your prediction and unfortunately many people will be caught in the market again holding securities and will suffer yet again down the road. Keep up the great work.

[wilcox71]

He also predicted the dow would hit 20000 in 2009

[xaviqaz]

If i´m not wrong Dent predicts high inflation in 2010 that would lead to deflationary depression. Maybe is the 70s-80s vicious circle again: high inflation, the Fed rises interest rates, crisis, inflation goes down, a few years later is high again, the Fed rises interest rates...

PD: Sorry for my english

[jkt626]

Anyone know if in his newsletter, he's advised to sell stocks now that it's July?

Didn't quite make it to his 10,000 on the Dow target.

The book value on the Dow is like 3100. Anyone who thinks going to 3800 is absurd is misinformed.

[chromedreamz]

wut about gold/silver?? get out??

[chromedreamz]

book publisheed in Dec 2008, (dont give me that May 08 garbage), peter schiff published mid 2007 or earlier, Dont know who's 100% correct yet, but edge to Peter, everyone else jumpi n on wagon, nonetheless, he sounds like he knows wut he's talki about

[high5flyer]

If you read HS Dents book, "The Next Great Bubble Boom" you would of learned of his belief of a depression coming towards the end of this decade and into the beginning of the 2010's. He certainly did not jump onto any band wagon as they have totally different reasons for the depression.

[high5flyer]

Also, "The Next Great Bubble Boom" was written in 2005 as opposed to 07. Schiff is awesome. As of right now he's had a pretty correct synopsis but wrong strategy as his companies fund is down considerably. He is long term 4 his clients. I just don't think that is feasible with the current turmoil. Not sure how people could stomach it. I'd rather ride the waves & get off like Bob Precther has been pretty much doing by going from being short to long in March back to short & cashing out of stocks.

[manlyinternet]

Love It, "sell your stocks and real estate" Mhahhahhah, as if it matters when all you care about is keeping your job, lose that and you'll be burning his book to keep warm and cook your food.

[30percentplusreturns]

Dont think the markets will hit new lows. The amount of money printing that is going on will keep the dow pacing higher but it will lose value relative to gold. Im a buyer of gold. Either way, dent can be right because I think the dow and gold will meet at some point. Gold is a much safter bet, silver even safer and more potential.

[Trialpha1000]

That doesn't make sense.If you don't have a strong economy to back up the money your printing then the money is worthless.Thats like borrowing money from a bank when you have no corraterral to back up the loan.The worst of this economy is just begining.

[30percentplusreturns]

Im afraid dent is right. There is one market that you need to look at that forcasts a depression. That is the natural gas market. It has totally collapsed.

[mark7996]

The more I listen to him the more annoyed I get, esp. his geopolitical cycle bs...while he's explaining these things, he's missing about 150 other terrorist events that happened in the rest of the world, manipulating statistics to fit into his cycle, he's a shifty one.

[mark7996]

4:42 ...bullshit insight right here, geopolitical cycles and subcycles, talk to a history major, just how he explains it, on such a broad scale takes away his credibility.  great orator though, his book sell well because he speaks convincingly and where he's wrong, he smooths things over with statement like 'we somewhat refined that' 2:13

[rudyt]

While Dent is a smart guy and makes good points,his deflationary depression makes no sense.Bernanke has almost doubled the monatary base in a year and I see no change for the future.Deleveraging does not mean deflation.While real estate and stocks go down (gold terms) money printing/credit creation will cause food and commodoties to explode .That's how everyone gets fooled by inflation,some prices go down(gold terms) .I'm in the Schiff camp of an inflationary depression.

[Einstiensblackid]

Maybe it'll be rampant inflation for a few years to the point where it causes a US treasuries bubble. After a few years of global depression those 10yr bonds might become attractive at 10%. Once that starts the dollar will bottom and rise and the slow, choppy recovery can begin... three or four years from now.

[Erik28tx]

there is way too much deleveraving to come yet still...

they "want" us to think there is inflation....there is NOT imo

[30percentplusreturns]

rudy, totally agree with you. Dents call on the market going to 3800 is a little absurd. Dow 6,000, i think so, but not lower. If the market gets to 7,000 the fed will just print money and buy stocks. Its all a ponzi scheme. This isnt the America of the 1930's, this is the America of Goldman Sachs and political fraud. Just look at zimbabwes stock index. Its up like a million percent due tomoney printing.

[zachenke]

Ohhhh. Harry. Not Harvey.

[megghegg]

God, now I'm gonna have to pay the $200+ for his news letter and book! Dang!!!

[lost70s]

If he is right .... there is another potential that could come about based on history ... the Government the New NASDAP Party that is in power in congress and the White HOuse ... will take the opportunity of a depression to offer solutions that will rob people of their liberty and create further damage of the Constitution . It happened under FDR and we still suffer form the ABC agencies he created yet today . Get fire arms get trained ... you're gonna need'em

[ScottsSpot]

Mr. H. S. Dent may be very different in his approach than say Benjamin Graham, yet trends do tend to tell us something, and we all look for the logic of the market. History seems to always repeat itself.

[charlie4114]

peter schiff, harry dent, jim rodgers arent all perfect they are going to get exact numbers please if they can why wouldnt they just play lotto?

But what makes these people good is they give u the general direction(which way the economy is headed.)where as others will give u greens shoots.

[andiauae]

Great analyst. I love his books. He is always right when big changes are going to happen. All of us have his advice free of charge, have to respect this. Most of the greedy wall street morons just sucks the fees out of your pocket with miserable results for yourself. Great update Mr. Dent.

[TheJapanChannelDcom]

Harry S Dent Jr.

What a classic American name :-D

[Janfromboone]

How does anyone know for sure. At least Harry Dent has a system. It has worked in the past.

[azndude3600]

I though this was Harvey Dent for a second.

[yogadude56]

I've also been listening to Dent for about 20 years and have made a ton of money weighing his advice with my own views. More importantly, I avoided losing money by getting out of stocks in the fall of '07 before the market tanked.

[MatchesMalone242]

I believe in Harry Dent

[manojsugathan]

So do I. I also believe in Rudolf the reindeer. :)

[superman11978]

You bastard, I thought Batman killed you.

[greenb1a]

Thanks, Harry. I bought your book and love it.

[badhabitz69]

PETER SCHIFF Rules!

[grcapman]

Sorry, but people that invested with Peter Schiff in 2008 lost over 40% of their money (although I would imagine they've recouped some of that in 2009). The bottom line is that "guru" advice such as this is interesting, but not useful for trading or investing purposes.

[platinumproperties]

I lost a bundle with Peter Schiff and his rep is so bad - no communication, no service, nothing whatsoever - don't invest with Schiff! He sounds good but it doesn't translate.

[grcapman]

Sorry - but the poor people that invested with Peter Schiff last year lost 40%+ in their accounts (though they may have recouped some in 2009). Bottom line, this "guru" advice is useless for trading or investing.

[Dudanation12]

It's not good to rely on any analyst when it comes to the predictions of the peaks and lows. He is only making a guess as to how low it will go or how high. What matters is that he has a good insight to share on how the market works, and what is likely to happen. Having the basic knowledge of how and why a depression is going to occur should be enough for us. If he could predict the extremes, then everyone would make out from it (which is impossible)

[2forgildan]

Dent isn't a god or some guru. A lot of his stuff is outrageous crap (like Dow 40,000), but he does make a very good point about demographics. I don't agree with him about commodities because production will simply be shut down until prices return to a profitable level. Gold will spike when the world loses confidence in the US government's ability to pay back its debts. But that's okay. It'll be paid back with a depreciated currency. (Same thing happened to Canada in the '80's and '90's.)

[daretobedull]

Three things I'm happy about:

1) I didn't invest for Dow 40,000, as predicted by Dent.

2) I didn't invest for Dow 13,000 this summer, as predicted by Dent in his latest book.

3) I didn't by any of Dents mutual fund, which was a big loser before it was folded.

[jjorge730]

Remember guys the commoditie cycle began in 2000 and it will last for 20 years. Gold and silver are still cheap and even Harry said it himself we are heading towards a tense 10 years of geopolitical struggle in our country dont you think people will turn to precious metals? Pretty scary but history does repeat itself unfortunetly.

[jjorge730]

yes Harry was absolutely and completly wrong on the 70000 DOW prediction but at least he is 70% right. He is the few out there that does not believe or say what most of the MSM says about the macro economy. I do not agree with his prediction that bubble of commodities is going to pop by end 2009 or early 2010. I think it would pop by 2020 b/c the commoditie cycle began in 2000 which is Jim Rogers philosophy which agree with. But Harry arguement about demograhics is awesome and right on

[alstu4u]

Harry's direction is very close, although magnitude is somewhat hard to predict. I've taken his advise and made good money investing accordingly. Thanks Harry!

[maynard7777]

I am interested in what he has to say, but I don't take it for gospel. He's been right about some things and wrong about others (just like all the other gurus out there).  Nobody out there knows what's going to happen, including Harry. As an example, in his early books, he was always talking about how financial stocks and healthcare stocks would do really well because of the aging baby boomers. Well, financials have not done well, and healthcare stocks have gone nowhere.

[EntrepreneursCoach]

thanks a lot

[yipcarl]

He said the Dow was going to 40k when the dow was rallying that was totally wrong. Other than that he has been 75% right. He's right about the stock market Dow at 3000 and that real estate will die there is no question about that, I think.

[yipcarl]

To say he's been totally right is WRONG, he has not been all right.He said the Dow would go to 40,000, that was very very wrong. Although he is more right than than the arseholes on CNBC. He's probably right about his 2009 predictions and where the dow is going. I think he is wrong about interest rates, I think rates are coming way back down sooner than later and bonds are a great buy now. As far as his real estate call, he is 100% correct, real estate is going to completely die, wait and see.

[myloanking]

I wish I had kept my subscription through the boom years. i would still have all the down payment money//lost.

[sandramiddleton]

I have been following Harry Dent since I read 'The Great Boom ahead" back in the early nineties. He is never wrong when it comes to the direction that the economy is taking. He is amazing and his economic method of predicting is so simple that it can be explained to a ten year old. Anyone who has followed him for the last twenty years would now be very wealthy. SandraMiddleton

[danzuckerman]

Does anyone seriously believe this quack?

[prtjjr]

Yes--while not perfect his accuracy has been amazing. Yes he's been wrong though he admits mistakes & corrects.

Still don't believe--take note & recheck in a year.

[rbarnesy]

Absolutely on direction and trends. The stats are simple and he is looking at obvious but often overlooked long-term trends.

That said, he should stay away from giving exact number targets. Nobody gets that right.

[EncoreMadison]

I've been following Harry for 20ish years. He's the real deal. Thanks, Harry. You are amazing!!

[BruceFenton]

good stuff Harry!