I think that same "Law of Accelerating Returns" ought to be applied to economics in his theory. Not many people realize that exponential functions just as easily predict our annual growth rate, which inversely affects our currency's value. The sustained population increase (and thus distribution network requirements) will not help (and in fact possibly hinder them) in meeting this respectable scientists' predictions in technology for the foreseeable future, in my opinion.
@cuntsound He's not talking about computers. He means microchips, as in eventually we could make an efficient quantum computer... which is nonsense. Kurzweil makes one big assumption in the groundwork of his theory, namely that all this exponential growth is sustainable, which--by the way--it is not.
You're basing your assumption on what? Exponential growth is natural, noone knows if it's at Kurzweil's pace or different, but it's preposterous to think it will end in the near future. We'll use our current technology to create new one, not the old of the past to do the job.
@CarboneCZ Correct. Exponential computing power can only be sustained until the physical limitations of the current paradigm stunts growth... but then we create a new paradigm and exponential growth continues. This is happening now with junctionless transistors. Companies like Microsoft have been preparing for development of the next paradigm for years. It will happen. People are just typically narrow-minded and can't see five minutes in front of their faces. They have no vision.
And since it's pretty much given that we move towards 3d chips (which doesn't require new factories for most of it's manufacturing processes) by the end of the decade I don't see why we wouldn't see a huge progress in the next 20 years. Even Intel's CTO predicts it's arrival before 2020. Just google 3D IC, monolithic 3D, besang, etc.
@cuntsound of course they're. Even if it was just 1% a year it'd still be exponential. When it comes to size the pace is similar toour past, and when it comes to performance? Well, power of processors still increases pretty quickly, even though their clocks are almost the same. The important thing is that in the last decade the attention shifted from cpu to gpu. If you want to compare computers of 90s to todays computers you can't compare just cpus.
Gpus are the future, paralel computing is the way. Most importantly you have to compare price/performance - for the price of computer I had in 1992 I can buy not only the best available cpu, but also 3 gpus that i can run in sli or crossfire and still have some money left. In the quite near future we'll also see a rise of 3d integrated circuits - besang has one of the most promising techniques. We're approaching the end of one of the "s" curves, but it doesn't mean end.
you're wrong, Look at supercomputers, they're most important for science. Last year we saw chinese supercomputer which have power about 2,5 Petaflop, in 2012 we will have 20 Petaflop supercomputer in USA, check it out in google. Home pc aren't as important here, and also software is poor nowadays, but this will change, when we will create better software and AI, and this will be possible when we will better understand our brains. Here our progress is also exponential.
I sounds more like he said, "I HAVE this whole analysis in The Singularity Is Near". He also says, "I wrote "The Singularity is near in 2005" at 27:05.
@cuntsound Computers Are getting smaller and faster Exponentially. The thing is, we are working out the very end of the Silicon-CMOS transistor paradigm-what Mr. Kurzweil refers to as the Fifth Transistor Paradigm.
IBM has developed the Sixth Paradigm: Nanophotonics. Google search it. Not only will Nanophotonics continue the exponential trend, it will accelerate it.
in the long run they are getting smaller and faster exponentially. right now there is a bump in the curve, which was expected by kurzweil's model, because the integrated circle paradigm is running out. when the next paradigm kicks in we'll have a much steeper curve, the model says. it was the same with the other paradigm changes.
@cuntsound i think the new droid and iphones are much faster and better than phones 5 years ago, including the entire internet at your fingertips.
the workings with nanotubes and atomic tech are allowing the
i agree they aren't getting smaller to the consumer, as our fingers are only so small, and we still need to be able to interface and maintain our computers.
I think that same "Law of Accelerating Returns" ought to be applied to economics in his theory. Not many people realize that exponential functions just as easily predict our annual growth rate, which inversely affects our currency's value. The sustained population increase (and thus distribution network requirements) will not help (and in fact possibly hinder them) in meeting this respectable scientists' predictions in technology for the foreseeable future, in my opinion.
Acosmicist 1 month ago
It's always great to listen to Ray Kurzweil.
Keim4ever 11 months ago
So this guy goes with the "If you can't dazzle them with your brilliance, baffle them with your bullshit" paradigm.
beechgrovejoe 11 months ago
Or.... we could end up in the matrix... maybe we already are = )
2ruthfox82 11 months ago
when was this recorded? computers aren't getting smaller and faster exponentially anymore.
cuntsound 11 months ago
@cuntsound it's brand new - almost - last November that is...
OilCrash 11 months ago
@cuntsound He's not talking about computers. He means microchips, as in eventually we could make an efficient quantum computer... which is nonsense. Kurzweil makes one big assumption in the groundwork of his theory, namely that all this exponential growth is sustainable, which--by the way--it is not.
BoStevoD 11 months ago
@BoStevoD
You're basing your assumption on what? Exponential growth is natural, noone knows if it's at Kurzweil's pace or different, but it's preposterous to think it will end in the near future. We'll use our current technology to create new one, not the old of the past to do the job.
CarboneCZ 11 months ago
@CarboneCZ Correct. Exponential computing power can only be sustained until the physical limitations of the current paradigm stunts growth... but then we create a new paradigm and exponential growth continues. This is happening now with junctionless transistors. Companies like Microsoft have been preparing for development of the next paradigm for years. It will happen. People are just typically narrow-minded and can't see five minutes in front of their faces. They have no vision.
shade1978x 10 months ago 2
@BoStevoD
And since it's pretty much given that we move towards 3d chips (which doesn't require new factories for most of it's manufacturing processes) by the end of the decade I don't see why we wouldn't see a huge progress in the next 20 years. Even Intel's CTO predicts it's arrival before 2020. Just google 3D IC, monolithic 3D, besang, etc.
CarboneCZ 11 months ago
@cuntsound of course they're. Even if it was just 1% a year it'd still be exponential. When it comes to size the pace is similar toour past, and when it comes to performance? Well, power of processors still increases pretty quickly, even though their clocks are almost the same. The important thing is that in the last decade the attention shifted from cpu to gpu. If you want to compare computers of 90s to todays computers you can't compare just cpus.
CarboneCZ 11 months ago
@cuntsound
Gpus are the future, paralel computing is the way. Most importantly you have to compare price/performance - for the price of computer I had in 1992 I can buy not only the best available cpu, but also 3 gpus that i can run in sli or crossfire and still have some money left. In the quite near future we'll also see a rise of 3d integrated circuits - besang has one of the most promising techniques. We're approaching the end of one of the "s" curves, but it doesn't mean end.
CarboneCZ 11 months ago
@cuntsound
you're wrong, Look at supercomputers, they're most important for science. Last year we saw chinese supercomputer which have power about 2,5 Petaflop, in 2012 we will have 20 Petaflop supercomputer in USA, check it out in google. Home pc aren't as important here, and also software is poor nowadays, but this will change, when we will create better software and AI, and this will be possible when we will better understand our brains. Here our progress is also exponential.
mrdexter86 11 months ago
@cuntsound Yeah, your're right; he also said "I'm going to have the whole analysis in 'The Singularity Is Near.'" That came out when, '06, '07?
matThaHatter 10 months ago
@matThaHatter
I sounds more like he said, "I HAVE this whole analysis in The Singularity Is Near".
josephbhunt 10 months ago
@matThaHatter
I sounds more like he said, "I HAVE this whole analysis in The Singularity Is Near". He also says, "I wrote "The Singularity is near in 2005" at 27:05.
josephbhunt 10 months ago
@cuntsound Computers Are getting smaller and faster Exponentially. The thing is, we are working out the very end of the Silicon-CMOS transistor paradigm-what Mr. Kurzweil refers to as the Fifth Transistor Paradigm.
IBM has developed the Sixth Paradigm: Nanophotonics. Google search it. Not only will Nanophotonics continue the exponential trend, it will accelerate it.
eziekiel9989 10 months ago 2
@cuntsound
in the long run they are getting smaller and faster exponentially. right now there is a bump in the curve, which was expected by kurzweil's model, because the integrated circle paradigm is running out. when the next paradigm kicks in we'll have a much steeper curve, the model says. it was the same with the other paradigm changes.
1schwererziehbar1 10 months ago
@cuntsound lol, yes they are, they are still following moores law, doubling in power 18 months
karim3343 5 months ago
@cuntsound i think the new droid and iphones are much faster and better than phones 5 years ago, including the entire internet at your fingertips.
the workings with nanotubes and atomic tech are allowing the
i agree they aren't getting smaller to the consumer, as our fingers are only so small, and we still need to be able to interface and maintain our computers.
just my opinion.
kelbykross1 3 months ago
@cuntsound yes... they are
sharpezor 3 weeks ago