NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center forecast model run, Jan 23, 2012

[SLOrion78]

@MaskedSanity19 it was daylight hours when it was forecasted to hit. so yeah im sure

[jacklee1961]

I think the one lesson we can take away from this event is how utterly dependent we are on the data coming from ACE. All of the forecast models that provide us with the ability to protect satellites, aircraft and electrical ground-based assets need accurate data from this satellite. It may be time to consider launching a backup system to augment, verify and provide a fail-over should ACE data cease or be questionable in the future.

[jacklee1961]

It seems pretty obvious that the ACE solar wind data (speed and density) are not working. The GOES solar wind speed shortly after CME impact registered 750km/s.

[LookiChannel]

you saying to nite sh*t is gona hit the Fan!!? I can sense It!

[LookiChannel]

you saying to nite shit is gona hit the Fan!!?

[gallan30]

Does anyone have an idea how long the bombardment/aurorae will last? It's said to strike at 9 AM UTC, for my location that will be 2 pm in the afternoon, and it gets dark about 3 hours later. Will I still have a chance to see anything in the dark? (location is north Holland, around the same latitude of London)

[jacklee1961]

The model run appears to show only one inbound CME from the 4:36 UTC event on the 23rd. CATUS and Stereo B appear to show two, the first one at 4:36 UTC and the second one at 7:36 UTC. Does NOAA plan to do an updated model run to incorporate the updated information? Also, is the data coming from ACE reliable? Radial speed, denisity and tempature on the SWEPAM all appear to be inconsistent with the later GOES plots.

[NW7US]

A coronal mass ejection is a different space weather event than a proton storm and polar cap absorption event. Both may be triggered by a solar flare, but not all solar flares produce either a CME or a proton storm. A solar flare is a complex sequence of smaller events, with different effects on space weather.

[SLOrion78]

why does it always happen in the daylight hours here in the us ughh this sucks

[MaskedSanity19]

@SLOrion78 1 am EST. pretty sure you arent in daylight.

[pegasusmatrix]

Currently we are in the middle of a solar geoeffective storm at a level of S-3, and this was caused by a smaller CME from January 19th. This one coming now is from a much larger CME, and is even more directly targeted straight towards Earth. It could get serious....

[NW7US]

@pegasusmatrix No. The S3-level storm is a PROTON storm that was caused by accelerated protons as a result of the Jan. 23 M9-magnitude X-ray flare from NOAA AR1402, peaking at 0359UTC. It is NOT caused by a CME. A proton event is not the same as a coronal mass ejection.

[no1ukdaz]

@pegasusmatrix That's incorrect I'm afraid. The S3 event we are having right now is the result of a M8.9 flare which happened on the 22nd from region 1402. Solar protons move ALOT faster the the material the sun blasts out (which should arrive in about 4 hours time)

[wrenchhed]

I don't think it will reach that magnitude.