@leathersword Well don't I feel like an idiot!! I waked and baked for the first time in 6 months and completely missed your last post. I thank you were stressing the same point I was trying to make. It was even a better attempt! You were correct and I apologize! I thought you were basing your assumptions solely on the length of time till expiration.
@leathersword. I'm not bashing on you, but your reasoning of thinking is no different than that of the ppl who lose money in options. Time decay can be 100 % accurately calculated throughout the life of the option. You were accurate when you said that ppl can lose money even if the option moves in the predicted direction. But time has nothing to do with it. This is the result of an option not moving as consistent or fast, in one direction, as they predicted. ( I know speed is a factor of time
I think the option had a month till expiry, so time decay wouldn't really be a factor( as long as your talking 1 or 2 days). If the stock would have held support, without a significant spike upwards, the majority of decay would have been from decreasing volatility. I say this only because the volatility was relatively lower on the purchase date than when he sold it. If it would have remained the same, then the decay would have come from time.
As I said before - AGQ does not experience decay the same way an option does. There is no time-decay with AGQ. The decay comes (when it does come) because of the daily reset of the NAV. Change gets compounded. If the price of the underlying asset (silver) does not go up or down in the same direction consistently, then there will be decay. But if there's continual price movement, in the same direction day after day (like in Apr) there is no decay. FYI: AGQ has been decaying about 3%/month lately.
In your video in which you admitted you sold your AGQ puts when silver was still above $34 (can't remember what price you said you sold them at) you made a wise statement about how options experience decay. Because of the time-value decay, it is hard to make money (consistently) trading options. Many people lose money even when they are right on the price move of the underlying asset. Anytime you can make money cashing out an option - you should never feel bad for "leaving money on the table".
Any thoughts about the newest piece of Clive Maund:
Especially this part:
We are now entering a deflationary bust phase that politicians have been trying to ringfence since 2008. Now they are outmatched and outflanked and totally out of options, which means that we should see - and it started last week - a broad based commodity and stockmarket crash, and therefore we should expect the worst with regards to silver.
I left a comment here earlier asking you to comment on Clive Maund's piece from 9/25 ... I hadn't yet you discussed his vids from last week: Now I just got caught up. Nice job w/ the puts. Also -- re. AGQ ... It decays only sometimes - because it is reset daily - thus it compounds. When silver goes up continuously, it gains more than 200%. When there is more volatility (up some days, down others) it underperforms. It is not because of derivatives. It is because of the effect of the daily reset.
Many pundits - Prechter and Maloney for example - claim deflation will precede the inflation. If they are right, doesn't it only make sense that financial assets will be what deflates? Houses already have. Some stocks already have, and I am sure there are other things I can't remember. This will likely be a very tough time for bulls, and may see them totally discredited before we form a bottom.
LOL, as i already stated in a comment 2 days ago when this video was first published...I can't even fathom how someone would be buying silver right now thinking it's even close to hitting a bottom. Close to hitting 25 an ounce here and the asian markets haven't even opened. I can easily see sub 20's by the end of the week, especially after today's massive sell-off following the revised margin requirements. Good luck to those who are immediately biting...but I'm just sayin.'
Remember that the biggest dip after the previous margin hikes on gold occured on the subsequent day ("coincidently" just prior to the options expiry, just like this time). If this is the same scenario, silver might stay down for today and tommorow, but I bet on wednesday it will be back above 30$.
Brother John, your timely warning and subsequent action to hedge your silver position was admirable, responsible, and beneficial to the audience who acted on it. That's unlike some perma-cheerleader channels who blinded by obsessions, paranoia, and anger keep selling fantasies on short term moon shots on Silver. For keeping a level head about this market, I congratulate and appreciate you.
It does look like, however, that Silver may be heading to the $19-$21 strong support level short term.
@ralphdel118 Me too, in fact a lot of traders are going short this coming week, but from the looks of it in Asia now, too late to make it a real profitable short though. Unless, you go real heavy in and out daily until it hist the low target range. What say you?m--Nice to see a clear headed, rational poster in these channels! Cheers.
On Saturday, 9-24, I was in the retail store of gainsville coins to pick up some physical of anything they had in the store. I didn't want to order, and pick up later. They had more in the store than they usually have. I'm glad I was there when they opened up. The place was a madhouse. Everyone was there to get some silver, any silver. That poor salesman was going to have a long day. If the price drops some more, I will scrape some more money up, and buy more. keep stackin--I'm loving it.
My take on Clive Maund is that he is correct - we are about to enter into a deflationary "death" spiral the Fed and various govts and central banks have been desperately trying to avoid. I don't think silver's gong to $3, as he says - but I do think it'll go down further than most of us expect - and then stay there awhile - perhaps 6 months, or maybe until next US election - until it again becomes politically possible for the Fed to "print more money". Then everything'll shoot up like a rocket.
hi John. Thanks for your work here. Can you please comment on this Clive Maund article? He seems to strongly suggests silver is likely to go to the low 20s - and he's been hitting the nail right on the head for weeks now. The tech. analysis looks credible to me, on the surface... but I haven't gotten rich yet trading silver (haven't lost any either though) ... so I don't know what to think right now.
Better to have sold and be sorry than not sold and be sorry. As for me, double my gamble on the AGQ puts. Not getting back in until I see a bottom put in. I took a 30 dollar loss on AGQ shares by outright selling. Now am looking for the bottom of the waterfall.
if your looking for a great, reputable bullion dealer to ship to USA or CANADA - check out SIlverGoldBull - excellent service, cheap metals, lots in stock!
BJ, there is suggested by some that at some point for the price of silver there will be a separation between the physical and paper price; that would suggest that the Comex is no longer determining the spot price, perhaps the Asia exchange will determine the price of silver then(?). What will that mean then for trading futures; what will be the value of a paper price then?
John, you as well as streetmoney21 recommending to purchase at this stage. You are still confident this will go to $100. Clive is saying it is more to the down and it will stay down for a long time. I bought silver at the $36 and the $39 mark you recommended so I am in big loss now...What to do next?
I can tell you honestly, my local coin guy could careless whether it is Pert Mint Yr of the Tiger or Buffalo silver round. He will pay me spot or +$1 for bullion silver coins. Having said that, I do own numis coins including 1oz tigers and Koalas. Sell back to Apmex or Gainesville? don't count on getting all your numis value back frm them. Also, I don't deal with ebay. So, I have been sticking with ASE, Maple and Phils.
I'm wondering if the CME Group leaked the news of the margin hike coming at the end of Monday's business day. Perhaps they let a few of the chosen big boys know about it, which caused the extremity of this move. That seems to be what happened the last time they hiked it for gold only; the move down was primarily front run before the official announcement.
@TonyBeanify that would be AWESOME. everyone around you would be spending money like crazy, in a good way and businesses would start hiring again and we'd all be able to pay for our gas and food without a problem and we'd be able to get off the computer and live a normal life. I would LOVE to see anything but inflation. this is hypocritical. I am a debtor and the debtor's secret is that inflation is an advantage, that is assuming your interest rate is lower than inflation
@TonyBeanify anyway what i'm trying to say is that if the dollar went up, that would be a good thing, because the parts of your life that don't resolve around the silver spot price will be able to thrive
@TonyBeanify Tony, deflation is happening, but in waves: right now we are in a downwave after Fed disappointed markets by not printing. Before the tsunami(high inflation) arrives, first the water near the beach gets sucked back into the ocean(deflation) in a huge gulp, just like in the real world.
What happens if the bounces go up and down like this between 20 and 50. What will this mean? Is it because of paper silver? I still am a physical buyer mostly, but I do also have paper silver. I invested both ways, and will remain in both for the long haul. Nothing scares me or shocks me...I buy 1/2, 1, 5, 10, Ounces. I say keep buying and put away.
I am curious... do you or any of the other leading silver YouTube hosts see the decision of the Fed to not loosen monetary policy further as the primary reason for commodities' decline?
Does this bode badly for the future? Bernanke has not indicated that he will do any more easing. Would love to hear your response
@antoniosonoqui T This question was ment for BrotherJohn, still allow me to put my 2 cts: IMO not to loosen the monetary policy is the only reasonable decision Bernanke has made in years, however the market was expecting somekind of stimulus so this measure caused a selloff in stocks and commodities. As Marc Faber says in the future even republicans will ask the Fed for more QE3, probably it will happen if the S&P index falls below 950 so keep watching. Good hunting!
Excellent opportunity to load up on more physical when nothing has changed fundamentally. Silver is so incredibly undervalued compared to the amount of money printed in the last decade. This feels like investing in Apple in 1980's.
It looks like I'm too late buying the silver that you highly recommended, out of stock. I couldn't find or understand the one dealers name. I heard Gainsville and Apmex but couldn't hear the other dealers name. Please help. I want to "load my little rowboat" with some physical. Any other recommendations Brother John?
inside information told me that it is because JP morgan was about to go bankrupt and the fed did this cuz if silver hit about $30, JP morgan would not have to go bankrupt. This was inside info I just got.
So.....I'm sitting here looking at Gainesville's site deciding on how many Maples Pharmonics and eagles I am going to buy and watched tubes of Pharmonics evaporate. Then the premiums went up over a dollar in less that 10 mins on all silver. All this with the markets being closed. PEOPLE...GET YOUR METALS NOW!!!!!!! This is not a joke....
@revlis999 I noticed the same. This morning I ordered a roll of maples for $880.30, now they are $900.17. Also, lots of stuff is sold out! Massive silver buying!
@revlis999 I noticed the same. This morning I ordered a roll of maples for $880.30Also, lots of stuff is sold out! Massive silver buying!, now they are $900.17.
Very violent move!!! . . . .now. . Monday: up to $34, then Banksters pushing still down at will. . . . bottom... $20? Then HSBC and JP Morgan load physical so can keep on their game strong for the final assault. . . so then, violent move up . . $30 - $32 . . day after comes down to $26.5, stabilizes and we start the game as if it was November 2010 but with the global economic meltdown closer (Winter 2012) so faster move up and "gains" for all of us. . . . regards
Great calls-No Offence, but back the truck & load the boat, are 2 key phrases that really scare me. Silver won't have a huge bounce this week, it will continue it's breakdown, and settle in by end of the week. I predict we will watch it bounce around at this level till November, when it will break down 1 last time (even larger %), before making it's launch upwards. It will break $100 by March 2012, and then prices under $100 will be a distant memory. Longs will know then, they won BIG TIME.
@ralphdel118 Your upside target by March 2012 is somewhat too high IMHO. Most likely than not, Silver will see $21 in the next weeks, followed by a long consolidation and base building. I would say $32-$39 by year end
Something keeps eating away at my gut, telling me we will see even lowers prices yet. I don't have the guts to start buying just yet. I would be ecstatic to be buying sub 20, and this week's action makes that target seem not so unrealistic anymore. Big boys are playing and they ain't done just yet. Just my opinion. Let's see where this week takes us. Peace all.
@ralphdel118 Once again Ralph, you and I agree completely! But don't worry, this whole plunge in Silver is just a "failed move" , right? Now who would say that still? LOL
@garryjlindsay i know how you feel.. I bought 100 ounce at 39, and 200 ounces at 43ish... Need to change my buying strategy - do dollar cost average and value cost average better strategy.. bad idea to dump a shit load of fiat money on one price day.
I Buy from Hock Shops. Coin dealers have them if you are in a big city. I like Provident Metals on line because they are cheeper freight wise and don't fool around for 7-10 days. Usually I receive shipment in 3 deays.
I'm new at buying physical silver. I notice this shipping and insurance cost you have to pay buying from APMEX. That really adds to the cost. Can you buy from local coin dealers?
@kchsbaseball1 Yes, Its better to purchase over 1 K worth so you dont pay any sales tax. Coin/Money shows are even better. Look up coin shows in and around your area. I havent seen any dealer/table charging tax under 1K . Get business cards and get to know the dealers first hand. This is important when you want to liquidate some or all of your position. Diversify your purchases somewhat. Online is good to make purchases when prices drop like this week if dealers dont sell out. Good luck
I hope you do well with the AGQ call, John, but wonder if this is not akin to catching a knife. I just posted from Franklin Saunders' most recent MoneyChanger newsletter. High volume on the downside is bearish. I fully agree this is a wonderful opportunity for physical and even though it will probably go lower it will be temporary. Even if it does go lower you are probably right that even though the price may be low there will be no sellers and the market will dry up. It did this in 2008.
John can you do a technical analysis of the gold/silver ratio. I know the ratio has been coming down from around 100 in 1990 to 54 at this moment. Can you make a prediction how high the ratio can go before it will come down again.
Word of caution John re: DOW from Franklin Saunders:
"Today the Dow dead-cat-bounced to 10,771.48, up 37.65 points or 0.35%, hardly amounting to a rounding error. S&P500 rose 0.61% or 6.87 to 1,136. Today's 10,638 low took the Dow back to its August low, setting it up for a fall THRU that low on Monday. Point & Figure chart gives a target of 9,600 [sic]. Big break. Follow thru Monday will confirm whether it will fall much further, but I don't know how you could draw any other conclusion"
Well you should know the hyenas, they smell out every overbought paper market and they crush the hype and fill their pocket. It happened to every paper market except to the gold. Be careful when playing their game, be on their side otherwise you are swimming upstream. Or even better don't play their game at all, stack you physical. You don't have opportunity like that very often. The sales man! Don't worry if drop more, look at it like second round of sales. But there may not be second round
Such an opportunity, and I'm too broke to buy a coin more. The silver I hold was all gotten at $34-ish. All I can do is advise friends to get in, which of course they won't. They seem to prefer giving me props for being right only after the fact.
you can see on that chart where the margin raising reduced the price, and then the latest line is exactly the same move, but after the move down, it returned to right within that trading channel, it did nothing, all it did was pause the move for a month or two.
i canmnot buy the dip until next week!!!!!!!!! the usual coin shop has ceased taking orders until then!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SO ARE WE GOING TO A 100% PHYSICAL MARKET. WHERE PEOPLE CANT GAMBLE WITH THE BANKS MONEY?? ZERO LEVERAGE.. IF YOU TRADE YOUR DOING IT WITH THE BANKS MONEY SO THEY HAVE A RIGHT TO STOP YOU GAMBLING.
hey John.. whats your thoughts on buying the physical 1kg Suisse bars with Certs?? or more to the point.. why do you always refer to 1oz coins?? cheers
CME doing everything in power to keep paper silver down….helping their JP Morgan friends get out from under their short position. Crooks. I buying another 1000 oz bars this weekend. thank you for another chance to BUY. See ya on the other side real soon.
I'd be cautious about buying more silver especially if you're not in it for the long term. This latest crash will put off many investors, slowing any price increases. Just my opinion.
To anyone who's lost a lot i recommend stacking up on AGQ. At least then you can make up losses a bit quicker.
Hey John thanks for the vid, I really like those canadian cougars myself ;)
Just some food for thought, you said in the end of the vid " I never thought we would see these price's again" and yet we are seeing them again, isnt it safe to say that maybe your prediction of $100 oz for regular maples/eagles by jan 1st may be too high? last few months I was telling friends/family we were going to see under $40-$35 maples again before year end. My projection for end of the year is $44 oz or so ;)
i honestly don't know why i watch these videos anymore.. i'd be interested in seeing how all your 'predictions' have panned out. you sure seemed optimistic a couple weeks ago.. ugh
@blootoober I may disagree with alot of johns projections but to bash him because his short term predictions may be off is harsh If He was smart enough to buy Silver below $20 and even below $10 oz then I think that alone gives him my respect on the metals. How many people do you know that bought silver below $10 oz ? I dont know too many people that did that. John might get some projections wrong but thats normal atleast he is man enough to admit he didnt think he would see these prices again.
OK...when will the Violent Move Up Come? Apparently Celente is Now Buying Silver. I heard that through Jackie-O's Channel.....disclosed info with Vilolent Swings in Gold by $100 to $200 per day and Silver $10 to $15 per day. Very Interesting. !
Get ready for a change for the greatest increase of silver's owners that America has ever known. Silver will be at $70 dollars before the end of the year. This sneak buying of silver will surprise many. This is back the truck up time. BUY BUY BUY BUY and take advantage of it now. This is the real deal.
This could be the (silver) straw that breaks the camel's back. When physical dealers get the hint that price manipulation is detrimental to their inventories.
No need to worry everyone! it`s my fault the price droped. i said last week silver would go up and on average im wrong 95% of the time , now im calling for silver to go lower next week so there a 95% chance it wil go up. !!
AGQ? That goes against everything you preach. You are aware they raised margins after 5PM right? Not as bad as they treated the Hunts, yet, but pretty blatant!
Why not PSLV or CEF? You can hold them without decay. SLW is a good investment also.
I ordered some Cougars today on Apmex and typed in 9999 and it let me put in that amount, now it says only 8172, so they are already going pretty fast...
Please answer me this. Who is going to sell their Silver below $30. As it gets closer to $20, its going to be near impossible to buy because everyone knows now its going to
go back up to $50+. So whats left in the Mints around the world will be the only way to
buy. Have I got this right or not? So John do you think you will be able to buy at $20 ?
Thanks for your fantastic updates, John. You're one of the few that can make me feel more comfortable after these nasty drops! Picked up a few ounces today.
I got to the coin shop at 2:30pst and they only had about 70 ase left. They said it was a crazy day, people were waiting when they opened the store. They only had junk silver left. I might even get some more on apmex this weekend.
@BrotherJohnF Dear Brother, What do you think of buying through Goldmoney? they can send it to you by post and the margin they get is acceptable... besides you can wait untill price reach the bottom to buy it... any thoughts? regards
@BrotherJohnF You said it. I haven't lost one hour of sleep over this lower price. What a gift. just concentrate on the fundamentals, and ride the pony. keep stackin folks.
all this is is letting JPM out of theior short position as much as possible before the position limits are put in shortly. Watch JPM and the rest of their ilk jump to the long side soon..
@BrotherJohnF I agree with you. Silver can move up fast just like in April 2011. Once the USD reaches a high enough level (soon) all that money that panicked into the USD is going to look for another safe haven. Silver is good buy and the Gold /Silver ratio has just changed dramatically again.
@BrotherJohnF John, may I ask what's your fundamental reason for the 100 mid-term target? (or is it mostly technical?) And what would be your target for gold in the same time frame, should they're both realized? If you have covered that in previous videos please forgive my ignorance. Thanks!
The markets are obviously being so rigged and manipulated that it makes me utterly SICK!!! Either way and ultimately, I know that won't and can't continue to go on forever. This makes me so sick as to what the US Govt and the Comex are doing, that I am buying even more!! It is all about the physical market, versus these obviously paper rigged markets!
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@garryjlindsay its alright man, wait a few months you will make it
ShikamaruTKD 5 months ago
@leathersword Well don't I feel like an idiot!! I waked and baked for the first time in 6 months and completely missed your last post. I thank you were stressing the same point I was trying to make. It was even a better attempt! You were correct and I apologize! I thought you were basing your assumptions solely on the length of time till expiration.
The8wallace8 5 months ago
@leathersword. I'm not bashing on you, but your reasoning of thinking is no different than that of the ppl who lose money in options. Time decay can be 100 % accurately calculated throughout the life of the option. You were accurate when you said that ppl can lose money even if the option moves in the predicted direction. But time has nothing to do with it. This is the result of an option not moving as consistent or fast, in one direction, as they predicted. ( I know speed is a factor of time
The8wallace8 5 months ago
@leathersword
I think the option had a month till expiry, so time decay wouldn't really be a factor( as long as your talking 1 or 2 days). If the stock would have held support, without a significant spike upwards, the majority of decay would have been from decreasing volatility. I say this only because the volatility was relatively lower on the purchase date than when he sold it. If it would have remained the same, then the decay would have come from time.
The8wallace8 5 months ago
As I said before - AGQ does not experience decay the same way an option does. There is no time-decay with AGQ. The decay comes (when it does come) because of the daily reset of the NAV. Change gets compounded. If the price of the underlying asset (silver) does not go up or down in the same direction consistently, then there will be decay. But if there's continual price movement, in the same direction day after day (like in Apr) there is no decay. FYI: AGQ has been decaying about 3%/month lately.
leathersword 5 months ago
In your video in which you admitted you sold your AGQ puts when silver was still above $34 (can't remember what price you said you sold them at) you made a wise statement about how options experience decay. Because of the time-value decay, it is hard to make money (consistently) trading options. Many people lose money even when they are right on the price move of the underlying asset. Anytime you can make money cashing out an option - you should never feel bad for "leaving money on the table".
leathersword 5 months ago
Any thoughts about the newest piece of Clive Maund:
Especially this part:
We are now entering a deflationary bust phase that politicians have been trying to ringfence since 2008. Now they are outmatched and outflanked and totally out of options, which means that we should see - and it started last week - a broad based commodity and stockmarket crash, and therefore we should expect the worst with regards to silver.
end of snip
Again any thoughts???
MykelSilver 5 months ago
bulliondirectDOTcom has never done me wrong and has competitive prices.
bkre8ive 5 months ago
I left a comment here earlier asking you to comment on Clive Maund's piece from 9/25 ... I hadn't yet you discussed his vids from last week: Now I just got caught up. Nice job w/ the puts. Also -- re. AGQ ... It decays only sometimes - because it is reset daily - thus it compounds. When silver goes up continuously, it gains more than 200%. When there is more volatility (up some days, down others) it underperforms. It is not because of derivatives. It is because of the effect of the daily reset.
leathersword 5 months ago
Many pundits - Prechter and Maloney for example - claim deflation will precede the inflation. If they are right, doesn't it only make sense that financial assets will be what deflates? Houses already have. Some stocks already have, and I am sure there are other things I can't remember. This will likely be a very tough time for bulls, and may see them totally discredited before we form a bottom.
eyesontheplanet 5 months ago
Real-time:02:11:11 AMET-13.00%)
eyesontheplanet 5 months ago
LOL, as i already stated in a comment 2 days ago when this video was first published...I can't even fathom how someone would be buying silver right now thinking it's even close to hitting a bottom. Close to hitting 25 an ounce here and the asian markets haven't even opened. I can easily see sub 20's by the end of the week, especially after today's massive sell-off following the revised margin requirements. Good luck to those who are immediately biting...but I'm just sayin.'
fliplyricist1 5 months ago
@fliplyricist1
Remember that the biggest dip after the previous margin hikes on gold occured on the subsequent day ("coincidently" just prior to the options expiry, just like this time). If this is the same scenario, silver might stay down for today and tommorow, but I bet on wednesday it will be back above 30$.
For me it is time to buy.
MushroomCloud666 5 months ago
@assilvertried7x You're right all the Silver is going to sublime into thin air. At least it will be cheap, though. Have fun.
PiroozAzDirooz 5 months ago
Brother John, your timely warning and subsequent action to hedge your silver position was admirable, responsible, and beneficial to the audience who acted on it. That's unlike some perma-cheerleader channels who blinded by obsessions, paranoia, and anger keep selling fantasies on short term moon shots on Silver. For keeping a level head about this market, I congratulate and appreciate you.
It does look like, however, that Silver may be heading to the $19-$21 strong support level short term.
PiroozAzDirooz 5 months ago
@PiroozAzDirooz I was sorry to hear he cashed out of his short AGQ so quickly. Dang, that is a lot of money being left on the table.
ralphdel118 5 months ago
@ralphdel118 Me too, in fact a lot of traders are going short this coming week, but from the looks of it in Asia now, too late to make it a real profitable short though. Unless, you go real heavy in and out daily until it hist the low target range. What say you?m--Nice to see a clear headed, rational poster in these channels! Cheers.
PiroozAzDirooz 5 months ago
As featured on NEWSBAD
TGtube1 5 months ago
Gainesville site is down for "routine maintenance" till morning. In the meantime silver is sub 30 and is teetering about to go to 28
scottj719 5 months ago
Well, as of 11:30 PM, silver is still down some 3.5+%.. I'll probably wait til early October and decide..
tooltalk 5 months ago
@tooltalk It's going to find a bottom at around $26.50
sprasher 5 months ago
@sprasher : hmm.. it already hit $26.00 as of 2:00 AM EST.
tooltalk 5 months ago
@tooltalk Damn! LOL...maybe it's too early to talk about bottoms. The European and US sessions haven't even started yet.
sprasher 5 months ago
thank you, got in on the agq short. nice to have an experience in buying a put- and a very profitible one at that!
MrPhajlee 5 months ago
On Saturday, 9-24, I was in the retail store of gainsville coins to pick up some physical of anything they had in the store. I didn't want to order, and pick up later. They had more in the store than they usually have. I'm glad I was there when they opened up. The place was a madhouse. Everyone was there to get some silver, any silver. That poor salesman was going to have a long day. If the price drops some more, I will scrape some more money up, and buy more. keep stackin--I'm loving it.
thaboomer53 5 months ago
My take on Clive Maund is that he is correct - we are about to enter into a deflationary "death" spiral the Fed and various govts and central banks have been desperately trying to avoid. I don't think silver's gong to $3, as he says - but I do think it'll go down further than most of us expect - and then stay there awhile - perhaps 6 months, or maybe until next US election - until it again becomes politically possible for the Fed to "print more money". Then everything'll shoot up like a rocket.
leathersword 5 months ago
@leathersword Absolutely agree with you. The next target range short term is $19-$21 strong support most likely than not.
PiroozAzDirooz 5 months ago
Can't post links here. It's on silverseek. posted 25 Sept, 2011
leathersword 5 months ago
hi John. Thanks for your work here. Can you please comment on this Clive Maund article? He seems to strongly suggests silver is likely to go to the low 20s - and he's been hitting the nail right on the head for weeks now. The tech. analysis looks credible to me, on the surface... but I haven't gotten rich yet trading silver (haven't lost any either though) ... so I don't know what to think right now.
leathersword 5 months ago
Better to have sold and be sorry than not sold and be sorry. As for me, double my gamble on the AGQ puts. Not getting back in until I see a bottom put in. I took a 30 dollar loss on AGQ shares by outright selling. Now am looking for the bottom of the waterfall.
eyesontheplanet 5 months ago
if your looking for a great, reputable bullion dealer to ship to USA or CANADA - check out SIlverGoldBull - excellent service, cheap metals, lots in stock!
TiemenZ89 5 months ago
great updates. what software do you use?
seanncali 5 months ago
BJ, there is suggested by some that at some point for the price of silver there will be a separation between the physical and paper price; that would suggest that the Comex is no longer determining the spot price, perhaps the Asia exchange will determine the price of silver then(?). What will that mean then for trading futures; what will be the value of a paper price then?
aslkfja 5 months ago
John, you as well as streetmoney21 recommending to purchase at this stage. You are still confident this will go to $100. Clive is saying it is more to the down and it will stay down for a long time. I bought silver at the $36 and the $39 mark you recommended so I am in big loss now...What to do next?
benjazia1 5 months ago
I can tell you honestly, my local coin guy could careless whether it is Pert Mint Yr of the Tiger or Buffalo silver round. He will pay me spot or +$1 for bullion silver coins. Having said that, I do own numis coins including 1oz tigers and Koalas. Sell back to Apmex or Gainesville? don't count on getting all your numis value back frm them. Also, I don't deal with ebay. So, I have been sticking with ASE, Maple and Phils.
DJohnGalt 5 months ago
I'm wondering if the CME Group leaked the news of the margin hike coming at the end of Monday's business day. Perhaps they let a few of the chosen big boys know about it, which caused the extremity of this move. That seems to be what happened the last time they hiked it for gold only; the move down was primarily front run before the official announcement.
captainwho1 5 months ago
@captainwho1 Ya think?
BrotherJohnF 5 months ago
Just a question, what if unfortunately deflation occurs instead of hyperinflation and silver never went up again??
TonyBeanify 5 months ago
@TonyBeanify that would be AWESOME. everyone around you would be spending money like crazy, in a good way and businesses would start hiring again and we'd all be able to pay for our gas and food without a problem and we'd be able to get off the computer and live a normal life. I would LOVE to see anything but inflation. this is hypocritical. I am a debtor and the debtor's secret is that inflation is an advantage, that is assuming your interest rate is lower than inflation
elysianfury 5 months ago
@TonyBeanify anyway what i'm trying to say is that if the dollar went up, that would be a good thing, because the parts of your life that don't resolve around the silver spot price will be able to thrive
elysianfury 5 months ago
@TonyBeanify Tony, deflation is happening, but in waves: right now we are in a downwave after Fed disappointed markets by not printing. Before the tsunami(high inflation) arrives, first the water near the beach gets sucked back into the ocean(deflation) in a huge gulp, just like in the real world.
PiroozAzDirooz 5 months ago 2
What happens if the bounces go up and down like this between 20 and 50. What will this mean? Is it because of paper silver? I still am a physical buyer mostly, but I do also have paper silver. I invested both ways, and will remain in both for the long haul. Nothing scares me or shocks me...I buy 1/2, 1, 5, 10, Ounces. I say keep buying and put away.
TheAvailable43 5 months ago
I like Apmex, and Westminster Mint.
TheAvailable43 5 months ago
I love these free pass weekends.
puapake 5 months ago
Hi BrotherJ,
I am curious... do you or any of the other leading silver YouTube hosts see the decision of the Fed to not loosen monetary policy further as the primary reason for commodities' decline?
Does this bode badly for the future? Bernanke has not indicated that he will do any more easing. Would love to hear your response
Anthony
antoniosonoqui 5 months ago
@antoniosonoqui T This question was ment for BrotherJohn, still allow me to put my 2 cts: IMO not to loosen the monetary policy is the only reasonable decision Bernanke has made in years, however the market was expecting somekind of stimulus so this measure caused a selloff in stocks and commodities. As Marc Faber says in the future even republicans will ask the Fed for more QE3, probably it will happen if the S&P index falls below 950 so keep watching. Good hunting!
angelmtza 5 months ago
John, the value is in the .999. why the care for this and that?
1imtrying 5 months ago
Excellent opportunity to load up on more physical when nothing has changed fundamentally. Silver is so incredibly undervalued compared to the amount of money printed in the last decade. This feels like investing in Apple in 1980's.
blazefury2010 5 months ago
i watched 2010 eagles sell out ...last night they were 180 in stock at apmex ..i was going to buy some next friday ...well guess not now ? lol
gasdorf 5 months ago
i hope silver hammered monday ....tues ...wed ...thur ...friday back the truck up sat
gasdorf 5 months ago
It looks like I'm too late buying the silver that you highly recommended, out of stock. I couldn't find or understand the one dealers name. I heard Gainsville and Apmex but couldn't hear the other dealers name. Please help. I want to "load my little rowboat" with some physical. Any other recommendations Brother John?
kchsbaseball1 5 months ago
Gainesville, Apmex and Provident are getting cleaned out. No more cougars at Gainesville.
scottj719 5 months ago
inside information told me that it is because JP morgan was about to go bankrupt and the fed did this cuz if silver hit about $30, JP morgan would not have to go bankrupt. This was inside info I just got.
barnone11967 5 months ago
my coinshop is 50c over spot for junk
should i get a couple grand today?
31.5
bodyheals 5 months ago in playlist first watch this
So.....I'm sitting here looking at Gainesville's site deciding on how many Maples Pharmonics and eagles I am going to buy and watched tubes of Pharmonics evaporate. Then the premiums went up over a dollar in less that 10 mins on all silver. All this with the markets being closed. PEOPLE...GET YOUR METALS NOW!!!!!!! This is not a joke....
revlis999 5 months ago
@revlis999 I noticed the same. This morning I ordered a roll of maples for $880.30, now they are $900.17. Also, lots of stuff is sold out! Massive silver buying!
Ibmxforfree 5 months ago
This has been flagged as spam show
@revlis999 I noticed the same. This morning I ordered a roll of maples for $880.30Also, lots of stuff is sold out! Massive silver buying!, now they are $900.17.
Ibmxforfree 5 months ago
time to load up on ZSL!
kirbyman1kanden7pf 5 months ago
Very violent move!!! . . . .now. . Monday: up to $34, then Banksters pushing still down at will. . . . bottom... $20? Then HSBC and JP Morgan load physical so can keep on their game strong for the final assault. . . so then, violent move up . . $30 - $32 . . day after comes down to $26.5, stabilizes and we start the game as if it was November 2010 but with the global economic meltdown closer (Winter 2012) so faster move up and "gains" for all of us. . . . regards
MarcosAlcantud 5 months ago
Of course the COUGAR is cheap.
It's so UGLY!
karenbcz22 5 months ago
AGQ @ $110 IS breathtaking!
karenbcz22 5 months ago
Great calls-No Offence, but back the truck & load the boat, are 2 key phrases that really scare me. Silver won't have a huge bounce this week, it will continue it's breakdown, and settle in by end of the week. I predict we will watch it bounce around at this level till November, when it will break down 1 last time (even larger %), before making it's launch upwards. It will break $100 by March 2012, and then prices under $100 will be a distant memory. Longs will know then, they won BIG TIME.
ralphdel118 5 months ago
@ralphdel118 Your upside target by March 2012 is somewhat too high IMHO. Most likely than not, Silver will see $21 in the next weeks, followed by a long consolidation and base building. I would say $32-$39 by year end
and $75 by end of 2012.
PiroozAzDirooz 5 months ago
Apmex is out of the 5oz Olympic National Park coins.
SilverTemplePIlot 5 months ago
brotherjohn: how did the price of silver dropped like that? did somebody manipulated the prices? and whats going to happen on the future?
niniowa20 5 months ago
Something keeps eating away at my gut, telling me we will see even lowers prices yet. I don't have the guts to start buying just yet. I would be ecstatic to be buying sub 20, and this week's action makes that target seem not so unrealistic anymore. Big boys are playing and they ain't done just yet. Just my opinion. Let's see where this week takes us. Peace all.
ralphdel118 5 months ago
@ralphdel118 Once again Ralph, you and I agree completely! But don't worry, this whole plunge in Silver is just a "failed move" , right? Now who would say that still? LOL
PiroozAzDirooz 5 months ago
I just ordered a roll of Maple Leaves, $880.30 from Gainsville coins, what a deal!
Ibmxforfree 5 months ago
Provident metals has NO amercian eagle coins in stock other than proofs, slabbed, or cull items.
Kylenashari 5 months ago
@garryjlindsay i know how you feel.. I bought 100 ounce at 39, and 200 ounces at 43ish... Need to change my buying strategy - do dollar cost average and value cost average better strategy.. bad idea to dump a shit load of fiat money on one price day.
DazzTyler 5 months ago
I Buy from Hock Shops. Coin dealers have them if you are in a big city. I like Provident Metals on line because they are cheeper freight wise and don't fool around for 7-10 days. Usually I receive shipment in 3 deays.
idahosilverspelunker 5 months ago
BTW I'm sure glad I didn't buy last week :) LOTS more ounces for the buck!
Medic37dan 5 months ago
Think I asked before, but what charting software are you using John?
Medic37dan 5 months ago
I'm new at buying physical silver. I notice this shipping and insurance cost you have to pay buying from APMEX. That really adds to the cost. Can you buy from local coin dealers?
kchsbaseball1 5 months ago
@kchsbaseball1 Yes, Its better to purchase over 1 K worth so you dont pay any sales tax. Coin/Money shows are even better. Look up coin shows in and around your area. I havent seen any dealer/table charging tax under 1K . Get business cards and get to know the dealers first hand. This is important when you want to liquidate some or all of your position. Diversify your purchases somewhat. Online is good to make purchases when prices drop like this week if dealers dont sell out. Good luck
driller62869 5 months ago
Someone tell me where to find this cheap silver? I'm not seeing it.
imcal101 5 months ago
A large margin call was announced to happen on Monday. Won't there be more sell-offs as last minute people are squeezed out?
ExtremeCabinetGuy 5 months ago
Yes love the buying ops , kill 666 buy 999
jizzleone1 5 months ago
I hope you do well with the AGQ call, John, but wonder if this is not akin to catching a knife. I just posted from Franklin Saunders' most recent MoneyChanger newsletter. High volume on the downside is bearish. I fully agree this is a wonderful opportunity for physical and even though it will probably go lower it will be temporary. Even if it does go lower you are probably right that even though the price may be low there will be no sellers and the market will dry up. It did this in 2008.
Vince3868 5 months ago
John can you do a technical analysis of the gold/silver ratio. I know the ratio has been coming down from around 100 in 1990 to 54 at this moment. Can you make a prediction how high the ratio can go before it will come down again.
Thanks,
And keep on stacking!
joost1v 5 months ago
Word of caution John re: DOW from Franklin Saunders:
"Today the Dow dead-cat-bounced to 10,771.48, up 37.65 points or 0.35%, hardly amounting to a rounding error. S&P500 rose 0.61% or 6.87 to 1,136. Today's 10,638 low took the Dow back to its August low, setting it up for a fall THRU that low on Monday. Point & Figure chart gives a target of 9,600 [sic]. Big break. Follow thru Monday will confirm whether it will fall much further, but I don't know how you could draw any other conclusion"
Vince3868 5 months ago
Call the low.
I'm saying $26.,40
Then overnight gains of over a buck.
Starwheel6 5 months ago
@Starwheel6
Curious, I was thinking about $26.2 . But I think there will be a short term bounce back to around 34$ first.
MushroomCloud666 5 months ago
@MushroomCloud666 . . . . . Completely agree
MarcosAlcantud 5 months ago
@Starwheel6 $21
PiroozAzDirooz 5 months ago
WOOT buying frenzy for me :-)
MrEdwinauer 5 months ago
Well you should know the hyenas, they smell out every overbought paper market and they crush the hype and fill their pocket. It happened to every paper market except to the gold. Be careful when playing their game, be on their side otherwise you are swimming upstream. Or even better don't play their game at all, stack you physical. You don't have opportunity like that very often. The sales man! Don't worry if drop more, look at it like second round of sales. But there may not be second round
ajvhan 5 months ago
Such an opportunity, and I'm too broke to buy a coin more. The silver I hold was all gotten at $34-ish. All I can do is advise friends to get in, which of course they won't. They seem to prefer giving me props for being right only after the fact.
Cloxxki 5 months ago
you can see on that chart where the margin raising reduced the price, and then the latest line is exactly the same move, but after the move down, it returned to right within that trading channel, it did nothing, all it did was pause the move for a month or two.
wesleytarbuck 5 months ago
i canmnot buy the dip until next week!!!!!!!!! the usual coin shop has ceased taking orders until then!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SO ARE WE GOING TO A 100% PHYSICAL MARKET. WHERE PEOPLE CANT GAMBLE WITH THE BANKS MONEY?? ZERO LEVERAGE.. IF YOU TRADE YOUR DOING IT WITH THE BANKS MONEY SO THEY HAVE A RIGHT TO STOP YOU GAMBLING.
COUNTCARDULAR 5 months ago
hey John.. whats your thoughts on buying the physical 1kg Suisse bars with Certs?? or more to the point.. why do you always refer to 1oz coins?? cheers
calvertdaniel88 5 months ago
would you suggest changing my gold for silver?
MrVocalBaby 5 months ago
CME doing everything in power to keep paper silver down….helping their JP Morgan friends get out from under their short position. Crooks. I buying another 1000 oz bars this weekend. thank you for another chance to BUY. See ya on the other side real soon.
vinnysfo 5 months ago
superb analysis...agreed, silver at these prices at this point in time is unbelievable and has to be the last opportunity to get it dirt cheap. :)
geniusmarketing08 5 months ago
I'd be cautious about buying more silver especially if you're not in it for the long term. This latest crash will put off many investors, slowing any price increases. Just my opinion.
To anyone who's lost a lot i recommend stacking up on AGQ. At least then you can make up losses a bit quicker.
Kolbe71 5 months ago
Hey John thanks for the vid, I really like those canadian cougars myself ;)
Just some food for thought, you said in the end of the vid " I never thought we would see these price's again" and yet we are seeing them again, isnt it safe to say that maybe your prediction of $100 oz for regular maples/eagles by jan 1st may be too high? last few months I was telling friends/family we were going to see under $40-$35 maples again before year end. My projection for end of the year is $44 oz or so ;)
MrPointspread 5 months ago
i honestly don't know why i watch these videos anymore.. i'd be interested in seeing how all your 'predictions' have panned out. you sure seemed optimistic a couple weeks ago.. ugh
blootoober 5 months ago
@blootoober I may disagree with alot of johns projections but to bash him because his short term predictions may be off is harsh If He was smart enough to buy Silver below $20 and even below $10 oz then I think that alone gives him my respect on the metals. How many people do you know that bought silver below $10 oz ? I dont know too many people that did that. John might get some projections wrong but thats normal atleast he is man enough to admit he didnt think he would see these prices again.
MrPointspread 5 months ago
@blootoober if you see endlessmountain's stuff, you would thank god for Brother John's.
PiroozAzDirooz 5 months ago
@PiroozAzDirooz ohhhh shut up
blootoober 5 months ago
@blootoober It's going lower,sorry. You can shut up now.
PiroozAzDirooz 5 months ago
OK...when will the Violent Move Up Come? Apparently Celente is Now Buying Silver. I heard that through Jackie-O's Channel.....disclosed info with Vilolent Swings in Gold by $100 to $200 per day and Silver $10 to $15 per day. Very Interesting. !
TheSilverWatch 5 months ago
@garryjlindsay you will be kicking yourself for the opportunity to buy silver at $40 again. Cheap silver fest for now.
sw911iz112 5 months ago
Get ready for a change for the greatest increase of silver's owners that America has ever known. Silver will be at $70 dollars before the end of the year. This sneak buying of silver will surprise many. This is back the truck up time. BUY BUY BUY BUY and take advantage of it now. This is the real deal.
junkyarddog47 5 months ago
OMG the titanic sunk again FREE silver
Jierongk 5 months ago
that 2007 Australian SILVER Koala | 1 oz Bullion Coin
$76.13 on Provident Metals..shssssssss.Prices are better and shipping much less than those other web sites.
fishstick1978 5 months ago
This could be the (silver) straw that breaks the camel's back. When physical dealers get the hint that price manipulation is detrimental to their inventories.
MykeeRamen 5 months ago
Great video and good calls. Silver is a screaming bargain right now.
dowhatuwill 5 months ago
@dowhatuwill It's going lower,then it will be.
PiroozAzDirooz 5 months ago
No need to worry everyone! it`s my fault the price droped. i said last week silver would go up and on average im wrong 95% of the time , now im calling for silver to go lower next week so there a 95% chance it wil go up. !!
BIGHAIRYSILVERBALLS 5 months ago
BroJ,
AGQ? That goes against everything you preach. You are aware they raised margins after 5PM right? Not as bad as they treated the Hunts, yet, but pretty blatant!
Why not PSLV or CEF? You can hold them without decay. SLW is a good investment also.
TSOS20 5 months ago
I ordered some Cougars today on Apmex and typed in 9999 and it let me put in that amount, now it says only 8172, so they are already going pretty fast...
TheLiddlekiddle 5 months ago
We fell to basically same price as JPM stock. Coincidence?
wafdawg 5 months ago
Please answer me this. Who is going to sell their Silver below $30. As it gets closer to $20, its going to be near impossible to buy because everyone knows now its going to
go back up to $50+. So whats left in the Mints around the world will be the only way to
buy. Have I got this right or not? So John do you think you will be able to buy at $20 ?
madderthanalex 5 months ago
$6 beyond my ability to process this logically.
Something is stinky.
They MUST be concerned with the availability of physical, even though it's a paper market.
Why would the market be left open on the weekend, so people can load the boat, if something else weren't brewing?
I have trouble finding logic with this blue light sale, unless the plan is to pull it much lower...or is this the ditch before Wall St. dies?
UNENSLAVER 5 months ago
@UNENSLAVER Let me know what you think of this - You Tube search - WALL STREET DESTRUCTION -
PAPER SILVER $20?
madderthanalex 5 months ago
Do you think it will drop down to $25?
ferrari4sale 5 months ago
Thanks for your fantastic updates, John. You're one of the few that can make me feel more comfortable after these nasty drops! Picked up a few ounces today.
Thanks again, and keep up the great work!
mikeman715 5 months ago 15
I got to the coin shop at 2:30pst and they only had about 70 ase left. They said it was a crazy day, people were waiting when they opened the store. They only had junk silver left. I might even get some more on apmex this weekend.
Cerco170 5 months ago
great video ! i never miss a video / these lessons are the best .
lynnybee888 5 months ago
I hope silver drops to $10 dollars
ModelAthletes 5 months ago
@ModelAthletes I hope it drops to one dollar. I'd buy 100 thousand ounces
BrotherJohnF 5 months ago 6
@BrotherJohnF Dear Brother, What do you think of buying through Goldmoney? they can send it to you by post and the margin they get is acceptable... besides you can wait untill price reach the bottom to buy it... any thoughts? regards
MarcosAlcantud 5 months ago
@BrotherJohnF if that happens put me down for 7 oz.
JohnnyHorton 5 months ago
@BrotherJohnF You said it. I haven't lost one hour of sleep over this lower price. What a gift. just concentrate on the fundamentals, and ride the pony. keep stackin folks.
thaboomer53 5 months ago
should i buy another monster box now or wait till monday
stangGTKKK187 5 months ago
CME just hiked gold margins by 21%, silver by 16% and copper by 18%
syyenergy7 5 months ago
Where can i get access to the charts you are displaying?
driller62869 5 months ago
woo-hoo!
MrMetalBreath 5 months ago
WTF. Everyone here said we would be seeing gold make $100 up days when the economy shit the bed again. What do we see. $102 DOWN!! WTF!!!!
dpla5762 5 months ago
I believe it was the computers that did the sell-off. but what is there to buy?
Physical!! I didn't see the sharp downward lines like when jpm comes in
idahosilverspelunker 5 months ago
@idahosilverspelunker What do you mean, what is there to buy? Go to gainsville coins. There is any silver you want at this price.
dpla5762 5 months ago
CME RAISE MARGINS 16% IN SILVER EFFECT MONDAY 26 CLOSE.
GuildF40 5 months ago 2
Margin increase on Comex Silver effective EOD Sept 26. Also Option expiration on silver next week.
SchiffRadiodotcom 5 months ago
@SchiffRadiodotcom This is going to be epic next week baby!
eventuallythetruth 5 months ago 2
all this is is letting JPM out of theior short position as much as possible before the position limits are put in shortly. Watch JPM and the rest of their ilk jump to the long side soon..
SIERRAHPBT 5 months ago
Provident Metals doesn't cost as much freight
idahosilverspelunker 5 months ago
John,
does this change your mind on 100.00 silver by Jan 1st?
SIERRAHPBT 5 months ago
@SIERRAHPBT Nope
BrotherJohnF 5 months ago 25
@BrotherJohnF mine either..
SIERRAHPBT 5 months ago
thanks..
SIERRAHPBT 5 months ago
@BrotherJohnF I agree with you. Silver can move up fast just like in April 2011. Once the USD reaches a high enough level (soon) all that money that panicked into the USD is going to look for another safe haven. Silver is good buy and the Gold /Silver ratio has just changed dramatically again.
syyenergy7 5 months ago
Comment removed
ShillBasher 5 months ago
@BrotherJohnF
Seriously? that does surprise me, but I really admire your courage and faith.
ShillBasher 5 months ago
@BrotherJohnF John, may I ask what's your fundamental reason for the 100 mid-term target? (or is it mostly technical?) And what would be your target for gold in the same time frame, should they're both realized? If you have covered that in previous videos please forgive my ignorance. Thanks!
biefapiqi 5 months ago
I don't buy anything with that ugly hag on it
idahosilverspelunker 5 months ago
@idahosilverspelunker exactly my sentiment
MrMetalBreath 5 months ago
soory about the spelling!
1imtrying 5 months ago
Did you notice he add at the 2:19 point. the scottade add with the 7 dollar silver?
1imtrying 5 months ago
Look at the silver sell-out in APMEX,Grizzly & Wolves. Bullion dealers still have problems delivery on silvers order more than 1 month ago.
silverqueen1977 5 months ago
Thanks friend,keep stacking.
bigrsoul 5 months ago
The markets are obviously being so rigged and manipulated that it makes me utterly SICK!!! Either way and ultimately, I know that won't and can't continue to go on forever. This makes me so sick as to what the US Govt and the Comex are doing, that I am buying even more!! It is all about the physical market, versus these obviously paper rigged markets!
slhines7 5 months ago
good info Bro
silverjunky999 5 months ago