When to buy a house in California and most US States

[johnpkang]

Dammit i wish i wouldve seen this video prior to buying my home. I trying to close on a $300,000 home by middle of jan 2012.. Is that a good or bad thing for me?

[MrAlanKendall]

@johnpkang

Loan resets have been pushed out till October 2012 so between Now and October 2012 you will get the best rate and the best price. I read an article last week where they predict that after October 2012 rates will jump 1.8 and most people will be paying over 6% in interest and prices will jump after October 2012. I predict a 30% jump between October 2012 and the end of 2015.

[ruanorafa]

@Mralankendall so what real estate course do u recommend people take. Or which have u taken?? And how much do they run for??

Thanks

[Cyrus992]

Why do these boom and bust in home prices happen in SOME US States???? Answer: INSANE GROWTH CONTROL POLICES...

Instead of building more to keep up with demand, ridiculous growth policies in states like CA hardpress growth of new housing. Notice how Texas and North Carolina grows fast but does NOT see home price increases..!!

[livinthedublife]

What are your thoughts on the Canadian realestate market? Since are dollar is so close to par i don't know if i should buy in Canada or USA.

[MrAlanKendall]

US Real Estate prices will quadruple from 2015 to 2020 and go up six to eight times from 2015 to 2027. The last report says that from 2013 to 2018 the US government will not be able to pay the interest on the deficit and they will print more money to pay the deficit, pay stimulus plans and defalutate the deficit by inflation. So in the US I am very bullish on the devaluation of the dollar and the jump in Real Estate prices the second half of this decade. Canada will not rise as much.

[livinthedublife]

What are your thoughts on the Canadian realestate market? Since are dollar is so close to par i don't know if i should buy in Canada or USA.

[eatandtravel]

Alan,

Do you know about Harry S Dent? In case you don't he talks about how demographics drives markets.

Do you have any thoughts on echo boomers and how it wil affect housing?

Thanks for posting your kick ass videos.

My mother and I are in the rental business.

[MrAlanKendall]

@eatandtravel

Real Estate will quadruple in price between 2015 to 2020 and Real Estate will go up six to eight times in price between 2015 and 2027. Take advantage of the low rates and leverage by buying at low prices from 2011 to 2016.

Two things will cause this sudden rise. First foreclosures will dry up 2015 or 2016 with the population increase and a new housing boom will occur.

Second the interest will be too high on the deficit and the US will print money causing more inflation.

[eatandtravel]

@MrAlanKendall

In case you didn't know, construction for rental units have almost stopped thanks to funding.

Do you own rentals?

I'm from CA. And you?

I know it sounds crazy but like you, I think we are going to have a housing shortage not too far in the distant future.

[MaxZagar]

Would it not make sense to compare other states as well.

[MrAlanKendall]

For the First time since the Great Depression the entire US is on a similar cycle to California, so buying in 2014 will be a good decision nationwide.

[eatandtravel]

@MrAlanKendall

I know it sounds crazy but I think you might be right.

[3089280288]

As a rule of thumb, shouldn't buy a house no more than 3 times what you earn in a year? California is way out of line in this respect.

[MrAlanKendall]

In a recent survey in 2010 of mortgage payments divided by rent, California had high ratios so this means that home prices in California are still way out of line and subject to fall.

[pongchen2000]

and because of obama's artificial forces injects to the housing market, it'll take more than 8 years to recover

[MrAlanKendall]

The last time they had 69% of americans owning homes was in 1966 and the correction lasted until 1975 when foreclosures dryed up. If it is similar, and I believe that it is, you prediction will come true.

[vaskasasdas]

I'm not sure that you have right... maybe but there are much more things that influence on real estate prices, and forecasting it, is quite doubtful... but imo you have right when you say to not buy real estate now

[MrAlanKendall]

I learned that Real Estate prices follow the law of supply and demand. In 2007 when foreclosures increased I sold my home. In my Zipcode there are 922 homes in default. A homeowner that lost their job and has equity will lower the price until it sells to get their cash and not ruin their credit. So homeowners in default push home prices lower. When Foreclosures quit rising, prices will stabilize. Banks will not lower the foreclosure prices because more homeowners will abandon their homes.

[amytran7703]

i can't wait til 2014 i need to get out from rental.

[MrAlanKendall]

Amy, if you wait till 2014, homes will be lower and credit requirements will have eased up. 1.6 trillion Adjustable loans will reset 2009-2012 and cause Real Estate to fall 30% more. If you then buy a home with a fixed loan in 2014, in 2022 you will be paying less than rent for your home as prices snap upward to match inflation. I recommend that you take classes, keep your skills current and don't buy yet. In my zip code there are 920 homes in default so prices must continue to fall.

[rusonidehtekim]

Wow, History really does repeat itself.

[MrAlanKendall]

Yes, it is a 40 year cycle in 1890, 1930, 1970 and 2010 we experienced major recessions. The reason that that they occur every 40 years is because the Government raises interest rates for 2 decades followed by lowering the rates for 2 decades. After lowering the rates for 2 decades (80's and 90's) when the next economic expansion ends, the economy struggles because the Governement cannot stimulate by lowering of rates.

[dalecampbl7]

because it usually takes about that much time for people to forget the reasons for the causes of the recession...like loose government regulation, i'd say the 2010 is more like the 1930s Great Depression...2010 and 1930 stand apart from all the other things because you are not going to see job recovery and prosperity for at half a decade down the line, mark my words. It's pathetic that Banks take bailout money from us after losing our money, all the while making CEOs billionaires.