Ray Kurzweil Keynote, Singularity University Executive Program Nov '09

[sharpezor]

0:34 ooo steady cam

[sensationaldenny]

Imagine what the iPhone 6 will be like when it comes out in 2015

[FreedomLiberty21]

Ray is a fascinating luminary. If even half his projections turn out to be accurate, they'll have fundamentally transformed our species and our destiny.

We're entering a New World, one with unparalleled opportunities and transformations more significant than the Industrial or Information Revolutions.

[OxygenBurglar]

Ray is the biggest shit talker on the planet.

[FeelOfFriction]

Ray Kurzweil...preparing for a descent into bullshit.

[timen1986]

what about this; Seth lloyd calculated the amount of bits the universe contains. Ray predicted the amount of computer processing needed to simulate the entire universe will be possible within 300 years. So within this simulation life would also evolve into intelligent beings like us. But would they know they are just a part of a simulation? For all i know our entire universe could be a bug! This could mean that everything that is happening at this very moment is just simulated. Mindboggling!

[AgentGustavo]

What did he said about the Cambrian explosion? By the way, what happened in the Cambrian explosion?

[isamelbou]

very likable man although I don't agree on his time frames of all these amazing technologies .

and I don't think we will have true AI in this centary.

My reasons are very simple. None doing research on AI is anywhere closer to it than 40 years ago. Ray seems to think that there is a direct link between computers computational capacity and creation of AI. Has he looked at how a very tiny brain like that of an ant can enable colonies of ants to create underground cities with air cooling systems.

[Apjooz]

Well there is a logic in that. We didn't have computational capacity in the 60's or 70's, we are only now starting to have enough of it. Hardware requirements should never be underestimated. AI is a kind of field that you would really need to be an expert to have a sophisticated guess, but I think we are going forward. The machines are now actually learning, and neural networks have reached a point where their real use has become possible. The progress of hardware might still be the key point.

[isamelbou]

What I mean by true AI is an intelligence at least comparable to that of a human being.I don't need to be an expert in the subject ( even of i have been closely watching it for some years now) to know that we are very very far from even making an intelligence comparable to a mouse one.We don't even have a definition for intelligence. How can we create something we can't even define is beyond me : expert or not!

[Apjooz]

I think you should take into account that we haven't had the hardware to make real progress until now. Also, we started from scratch and progress tends to be exponential like Ray uses to make clear. From mouse's intelligence there wouldn't be an awful lot of distance to that of a man's. This might be the thing: progress in AI development isn't clear because we still take baby steps. I believe by next decade we are able to make something that we can truly say is intelligent.

[isamelbou]

I agree that exponential progress is real as far as computer hardware is concerned. But my argument is that in order to have any progress ( linear or exponential) you need to have a starting point, and as far as creating intelligence, we haven't even started yet as i said in my previous post we don't even know how to define it. The AI systems you see today are only calculators with nothing to do with intelligence.the definition of intelligence is still in the realm of philosophy and dreams

[Apjooz]

And by this: "AI is a kind of field that you would really need to be an expert to have a sophisticated guess" I was mostly talking about myself. I bet there is someone that knows this stuff rolling his eyes no matter what I write haha. But yeah speculation and making a little predictions is fun.

[paulsanchez]

@isamelbou you may want to google "IBM Researchers Go Way Beyond AI With Cat-Like Cognitive Computing"

[isamelbou]

Thanks for the tip. I was aware of the research by IBM when I wrote my posts. My argument still stand as the research involved the simulation of circuits blindly copied from nature without understanding its functioning fully. The analogy would be :imagine a primitive caveman trying to replicate the functioning of the working of a jet engine,by drawing the outline of the engine on a stone, do you think the caveman is any closer to creating a jet engine.

[paulsanchez]

i'm not sure what you are trying to say but i'm going to let time settle this argument :) take care.

[ilcmuchas]

yes. He now has a general shape, still one step closer. And if he draws the turbine blades next, hes one step closer full to a full drawing, etc. Although I think the use of a cavemen here is dismissive of an important part. Its not a caveman, its an engineer from MIT, using ever faster technology with ever growing collaboration from thousands for other engineers to get his work done. You don't think hell be able to turn the jet outline into a working engine if he has that certain goal in mind?

[ilcmuchas]

ever faster and more encompassing technology at that.

[ilcmuchas]

just look at blue brains progress. its small, but its beginning like other things in kurzweils graphs

[eyhexs]

im of the idea intelligence is an emergent property in complex systems; can a lone neuron develop intelligence?; can a lone ant build a colony?; there is an interplay between a myriad of units and the way they organize themselves; but i wager understanding all intricacies of the brain isnt even needed; they just need to come up with the right ideas to get the ball rolling, then build a sufficiently complex system capable of improving itself; can a lone man build a civilization?

[siciliano29]

Ray is an amazing person, to say the least! I really hope sometime within the next 500 years I could sit down and have a talk with him....I know he'll make it. ;)

[tlreed2u]

I like the analogy of Israel's 10 year plan for total reliance on sustainable energy and Kennedy's 10 year plan for landing a man on the moon. Even though it is a lot easier and cheaper to have total reliance on sustainable energy.