Beware of the B.S.

[xy11xy]

Cool..

I'll see if I can get a copy.

[rozeboosje]

Wouldn't be the worst investment ever :-)

[xy11xy]

No doubt...but since working in the book industry, I'm a little spoiled by gratis copies...

[rozeboosje]

I hate you and I am intensely jealous

:-P

[xy11xy]

hahah..

I don't work in book distribution anymore, I'm afraid...

And, I'm too proud to milk my contacts..lol

[rozeboosje]

Pity, must have been a sweet deal while it lasted :-)

[HowDaWorldTwerks]

this makes me sad that i can't remember the last book i actually read

[rozeboosje]

That's easily fixed ;-)

[Noobwarriking]

well hoo to the ray

and what is his recommendation for future ventures

this is all part of post-crisis panicking

i do not condone this kind of profiteering after the shock as it was not a random event but clearly linkable to certain deliberate actions of key players

i have not read the book and don't know the overall context but the example he gave about farm-fed turkeys or whatever and to link it to economic events is just ridiculous

[rozeboosje]

Hang on now. In all fairness, since the book was published in April 2007 you can't say he's profiteering "after the shock".

Anyway, as I said to kriswager in the preceding comment ...

[Noobwarriking]

ok well

then this was only my perception

i just distinctly remember an article in the Frankfurter Allgemeine about him pretty much after the crash or a few weeks in

i guess it was just a media bubble and his type of book or ideas were just fitting for journalists to drag out in a time where quick and easy answers were needed to understand complex problems...

but please take it from me:

the crisis wasn't random but malice

btw i really enjoyed your von helton vids

:D

[rozeboosje]

:-)

I'm hoping I may one day be able to post a follow on on that, but I am waiting for someone to get back to me. It'll be hilarious if they do.

[kriswager]

I must admit that I was decidedly underwhelmed by the book. I agree with the general message, but Taleb seems to think that economists are not aware of the issues that he raises - they are of course, but since these "black swan" cannot be predicted, they cannot be built into the models, which then of course fail when a black swan occurs.

Also, Taleb seems to think that stock markets and finance is all there is to economics.

[rozeboosje]

Yes, that's one criticism I would share with the book: while he was quick to point out where the models were failing - and rightly so - there was very little to suggest how things could be improved. I do understand that that may be due to a large extent to how unpredictable such "BS" events really are, but it left the reader with the impression that his response was to throw his hands in the air and give up. Reading further it was clear that that was not the case, but he didn't really explore.

[Paxmax]

Very often I find myself lucky that I pay attention to what's going on in the corner of my eye.... like that bus hinting it's approach!

One of those days when they suddenly road mangement revoke the oneway sign and place a new bus route coming in at "the wrong way". Yup! I took that golden oppertunity to live so I and bike(named CycleIdiot) bounced happily off the buses side.

[rozeboosje]

LOL

[creativeinsult]

reading rainbow style! awesome!

[rozeboosje]

huh?

[snuom]

I think they meant, the way the book cover is on the side of the screen while you talk about it, is like the book reviews from PBS kid's show, Reading Rainbow.

[rozeboosje]

Oh, sorry, seein' as I'm in Ireland I wouldn't be familiar with that show :-)

[snuom]

It's a classic, LeVar Burton from Star Trek hosted it.

[metalorg]

Life forms do the same thing. They adapt to generalized norms and maximize population size. Like the somewhat consistent temperature changes of each day and year and century but once and a while there is drastic change and mass extinction.

[rozeboosje]

Yup. But we should have the smarts to deal with it better ;-)

[beejusbeejus]

That sounds like a VERY stupid book.

[rozeboosje]

Oh? How so?

[stealthbadger]

The universe is complicated.

Outliers happen.

Wear your goddamn seat belt.

[rozeboosje]

Exactly. And keep an eye out for that little opportunity hiding in the corner.

[PinkProgram]

People are always surprised that I exist... I'm outside of what most people believe is possible. I keep getting people telling me that I can't exist o.O

[stealthbadger]

O.o

[PinkProgram]

Did I blow your mind...?

[stealthbadger]

Naw, I'm just being random.

Pay no attention to the sleepy critter in the corner.

[rozeboosje]

LOL

[VisionGhostPoet]

This is in fact the 2nd time today Iv seen this book being recommended, so ok I get the hint! :)

[rozeboosje]

LOL

[KevinSolway]

It's called a failure to think outside the box. The curse of all fools.

[rozeboosje]

The "can't happen here" syndrome.

[DavidRandallCurtis]

Hmmmm.... sounds interesting...  5*

[rozeboosje]

:-)

[Marchawc]

Reminds me of Robert Laurence Moore's "white crows" in his "In Search of White Crows: Spiritualism, Parapsychology, and American Culture" (OUP, New York, 1977).

[rozeboosje]

Hm. No - there is nothing mystical or "paranormal" about this book.

[masticina]

Interesting concept yes and something to watch out for. Life sometimes just makes a few changes :)

[rozeboosje]

Yup. Keep an eye out for opportunities and risks. Don't be complacent.

[SANTARII]

The Mucky Duck.

[rozeboosje]

Mucky Duck?

[SANTARII]

In a book i read, i cant remember what book, there is a pub called the black swan, everyone called it the mucky duck though.

[mtsac1]

Thanx, I will check it out.

[rozeboosje]

:-)

[MoreSciFiThanScience]

I totally relate to your first thoughts on this book - I had seen some discussions of his about black swans and my first thought was to be irritated that this was so obvious as to be a waste of time to read... but im more tempted to check it out now

[rozeboosje]

He comes across as a tad belligerent and even arrogant in places. A first impression may leave you thinking he is anti-scientific occasionally. But that's not true; he argues against misapplication of models of reality, and warns of the dangers in that.

[premed2]

"I found a flaw in the model that I perceived is the critical functioning structure that defines how the world works."

—Alan Greenspan

[rozeboosje]

LOL - his biggest mistake is thinking that his structure defines reality. Typical mistake of hubris.

[Orygyn]

Ah, someone else who talks about what should be obvious but isn't. Since funds elude me at the moment, if I find library time, I'll check it out.

[rozeboosje]

:-)

[TruthSurge]

This idea, though, is what many Christians would use to say that miracles can't be ruled out. But I say we can basically rule them out if we define it as something violating the known physical laws that cannot be explained in any way. we haven't seen miracles at all recently because what used to be viewed as a miracle is now just something we understand better.

[rozeboosje]

No, this has nothing whatsoever to do with miracles, but with a misapplication of the Normal distribution to situations in which it simply doesn't apply, causing people to ignore real, albeit small, probabilities that can lead to huge consequences. We often pretend real probabilities are Gaussian when in fact they obey power laws.