A Simple Long-Term Timing Signal For The Markets

[KingJoeyMurray]

Couldn't one short the index in futures when the signals go down thereby increasing the rate of return dramatically?

Also, could this be used on futures indexes?

[StockTrendInvesting]

This is simple and straightforward and it works often. I still do not want to check every month. To time the long term trends, I look at the monthly closing price of the index and not the weekly average as here. That is working well for me. Has someone checked how this approach performs with other indices then the S&P 500 and how it timed the market in 2009 and 2010?

[m1santhrop3]

Whipsawed - Buying stocks just before prices fall and selling stocks just before prices rise in a volatile market, often as the result of misleading signals.

[stellaconcepts]

This setup would be getting you in on the dow jones industrial now... OUCH!

The back testing looks ok - but i'll be damned if I am going long in the market now!

[coltonzors]

I'm confused.

SO what is the rule? What is a touch?

What would I invest in?

Thank you so much!

[bvonmoss]

I think this just occurred for IWM. SPY is almost 1%, but not quite. Probably next Friday.

[Iconoclast421]

Update: go to tinyurl / lymxb2. I made a chart that clearly shows the cross is imminent within the next 20 trading days.

[m1santhrop3]

i use the ftse all share data & i estimate the timing signal for that index's next bull run will occur at the end of august.

like you i am anxious to invest, but i'm going to stay true to the +1% filter rule. when it does cross my pension fund will be fully invested in the market asap.

[AlcoholLevel]

We'll see what happens.. it could bounce off the 50.. and as much as I trust this signal I just don't know if its credible in a market so manipulated by the government & federal reserve.

[Iconoclast421]

Karl, I put the last 50 weekly closing prices into a spreadsheet and then projected the 20W and 50W moving averages out based on SPX holding various average levels. I found that the cross is guaranteed to happen by sept 1st unless we crash soon, and crash hard! From today, we need to lose about 25 points per week to prevent the crossing. That is not likely to happen in the summer! Since the cross is imminent, wouldnt it make sense to get in now for the long term? Can you do a ticker on this?

[cloverstump]

Does anyone have an answer to this? "i have yet to see a chart that shows the 20 and 50 week moving averages. does anyone know where i would be able to obtain a graph that shows those two statistics?"

[WhatsTrueNow]

there are websites you can make your own charts. use 'em

or get serious and download think or swim free demo.

[imigrantpunk]

Thank you for the video. Does this method work just with broad indexes? can you apply some sort of moving average method to long term investment into individual ETFs or stocks? Thanks!

[WhatsTrueNow]

its specific to the index he talks about.

[AlcoholLevel]

just the s&p..

[zzzfore]

If this works, why doesn't a fund manager use the strategy? He could take his fees and commissions and still provide killer long-term returns--thereby becoming the darling of the mutual fund industry. Or maybe this is one of those things that works until it stops working and then you're screwed. Just sayin'.

[WhatsTrueNow]

fund managers make a percentage.

commissions come from trading.

using this you would trade 1 or 2 times a decade.

[zzzfore]

Mutual funds typically charge expense fees, not commissions on trading, so my question still holds.

[polishsved]

touch rule can be fixed with fibonacci retracement

[xtopher1128]

sounds like good commentary but i have yet to see a chart that shows the 20 and 50 week moving averages. does anyone know where i would be able to obtain a graph that shows those two statistics?

[anukuhan]

thank you very much for the commentary. will apply it into my investment strategy. thanks again.

[Shtove]

Very few things in life really work - take my wife - but when you find one stick with it.

[kosai19]

Great strategy. I use a similar one with different values of moving averages and another filter rule (from the 30/34 trading method).

[33deagle]

great video, i will do this strategy with some of my cash when market turns. thanks!

[btmille]

"when market turns" Hahahahaha

Good job listening. Buy High hahaha

I always wait till the market goes up to buy ;) Then I sell when it starts going down

[RajSinghTube]

Thank you - excellent advice for 95 % of the people out there on how to make money properly and not lose money or over pay on commisions to brokers / brokerages / etc.