"The Myth of the Rational Voter" by Bryan Caplan (1/6)

[vinbuik]

nothing is random. Some systems are sufficiently complex as to be unpredictable, but nothing in the universe is truly random, even at the quantum level.

[Visfen]

@vinbuik So you deny chaos theory?

[vinbuik]

@Visfen the way I understand it, is that chaos theory operates within a deterministic system.A system that becomes too complex to predict over time.

[Visfen]

@vinbuik I don't think it does, and there's order in randomness as well, because of regulating forces.

[dsaxton1]

What he says in the beginning about votes cancelling each other out isn't totally true. People's information has to be "unbiased" for this to be the case; the mere fact of their information being "random" isn't enough. The obvious problem is that the unbiasedness assumption is completely artificial and seems just to be a clever way of assuming the answer you want to be true.

[sharemycross]

The reason why I disliked this video is not owing to Professor Caplan, but entirely owing to the the fact that idiot who posted the video posted a truncated version of it (apparently just before the punch line!). Otherwise, the argument of Dr. Caplan seemed to be progressing on a very interesting track - I'll have to find a more intelligent source than FFF to get to the bottom of this matter! Why are American students so puerile?!

[ImScottSheffield]

I've been saying this (in a far less eloquent and statistically grounded fashion) for years. Thank you, sir.

[86kinky86]

that's a flawed model because voters who are not informed do note make random voting decisions.

[bitbutter]

@86kinky86 Correct. Doesn't sound as though you watched it through. 9:12

[snoopyflick]

Well the alpaca farm could easily be true for everybody, but eventually the price will fall, and that's when it's bad. Easy money exist, but it's hard to find, and will only last a short period of time once many people know about it.

[verpetas]

Add a tablespoon of wine to a bottle of sewage, and you get a bottle of sewage. Add a tablespoon of sewage to a bottle of wine, and you get a bottle of sewage.

[Scientisticsoviet]

@verpetas Asymmetry. Good example. Mind if I use it?