Freedom, Science Fiction and the Singularity: A conversation with author Vernor Vinge

[tonkremegyek]

I would like to believe humans will be a part of the singularity not the ones who merely enable machines to make the leap without us. At the same time I hate computers and wish to stop the wheels of progress. The only thing that would put a stop to the inevitable is a nuclear war type of extinction. Like they say the only way to avoid getting old is to die young. It is our destiny to be replaced.

[tonkremegyek]

We are Borg. I see no way avoiding the merger of human and machine intelligence running parallel of biotech manipulation. The results are very difficult to describe (transcendent?) but the trend is clear. More and powerful gadgets, better and better interfaces, decoding the human genome accessing our own source code. It is evolution driven by technology and the fittest ones will survive. Those with more modifications better tech integration will be more successful than the unenhanced.

[Tautoulogic]

'futurism' and 'transhumanism' will be at the heart of the renewed world order orchestrated by the so called zionist-organized-government.

They are trying to associate these perverted ideas and false-promises into a political and/or elitist movement as we speak.

The exact same method they used to enslave half of the world early 20th century, using cultural marxism as tool.

Though you guys are going to beg to cooperate with them because you want to be an eternal slave so badly and they know it.

[smlifyrasor]

@Tautoulogic Then you do not understand those concepts and technologies, and let conspiracy theories get the better of you.

We're already on a one way road towards those ideals, it's rather unstoppable. The good thing is that free and open standards will inevitably win out over closed systems of control. Meaning that no government will be able to stop it, and no corporate interests will be able to control it, and it will quickly become cheap if not free, for everyone.

[doobiesmoke15]

I love those dog aliens from his novel A Fire Upon The Deep. They have to be one of the most creatively designed extraterrestrial species ever!

[zvi303]

I believe one version of the singularity is based on an advanced version of the internet, where people just meld minds together. But no one can guess. No one in science fiction - no one - got the future of computing right. Everybody had huge machines, and terminals at best. (Fred Pohl came close in The Age of the Pussyfoot, but even he had the hero treveling to phisically look up records.)

[GodofSpanaway]

Stuff on the singularity is always interesting, getting harder to find level headed intellectual analysis though, on youtube at least. I'm seeing more and more of that technolocaplyse and illuminati bullshit, I know how religious people love to troll, but give it a rest already.

[zvi303]

@GodofSpanaway You really should get past your bigotry. I grew up among religious scientists; don't generalize.

[GodofSpanaway]

@zvi303 I was just saying most of the videos on youtube about the singularity are hate videos, designed to scare people into viewing it as negative. When you watch these videos it's obvious that they are religiously motivated, most of them say it in plain language. I don't think I'm being a bigot, and I'm not going to dance around the subject because it might hurt someones feelings. Maybe I'm being unreasonable, but I'm just tired of people bringing up the illuminati and the NWO.

[keenanthomas47]

century reach are peak and beyond we've done more in the last 100 years than any of are ancestors think about it humans have technically been smart for a 100 years think were we could be in the next 25,50,100, 200, 300 years G(Genetic Engineering) N(Nanotechnology) R(Artificial Intelligence) will be the world changing events of the 21st Century

[keenanthomas47]

all mankind will be in this century the realization that either humans transcend into something amazing that we can't imagine or we will end up destroying the entire human species believe or don't really could care less i'm just relaying the message do your own research here's a place to start RAY KURZWIEL and to the dumb as said we've been the same for 10,000 years we've actually been the same for the last 100,000 years we've made slow progression and we will real soon by the half of this

[keenanthomas47]

insight into how are minds work will show us how we can replicate this in the artificial intelligence see are biological systems have limits robots nearly do not narrow AI already shows how powerful a computer system can be an we also already have mathematical algorithms that show how to transfer what happens in a brain into a robot see people are skeptics but they are just to simple minded to grasp the reality we are in the 21st century people need to realize the most important decision of

[BrotherWoody1]

Singularity is the tech. take over by the ruling elites of bankers, corporations & governments. This novelist doesn't have a clue as to the destruction of freedom & liberty that it will produce. The thieves will eventually use sub-dermal implants under the guise of entertainment, medicine, banking, identification. Once you have the implants, the chips can & will be programed to do only what the controllers & programmers ALLOW you to do. This is the "mark of the beast" & you are the prey.

[markzarkdavis]

@BrotherWoody1 Well then, that tin foil hat your wearing should block their attempts at control quite nicely. BTW, shouldn't you be WELCOMING the mark of the beast since according to your theology it means the world will soon be coming to an end. Then all of you who kissed god's pompous ass can spend eternity with the baby jesus. Awww....so cute it'll make your head explode.

[BrotherWoody1]

Perhaps the wrong choice of words. I intended "mark of the beast" to mean apocalyptic but NOT theological. The threat that singularity encompasses is existential NOT religious. Your hatred of Christianity NOTwithstanding, the threat is in the here & now, NOT from some misunderstanding from the beyond. Best to get your sci-fi mind back to current reality, pal.

[PinkProgram]

@BrotherWoody1 monkeys like you hold back your species -__-

[MRSketch09]

This is a pretty cool interview. Didn't expect it, but enjoyed it none the less.

[kev3d]

What gives me hope is that today, Angry Birds is more popular than Marx.

[vNorilor]

@kev3d Haha, I got a kick out of that. : )

[PoliticallyBlazed]

The Vinge Vision is doomed to failure; humans are incapable of ascending to super-intellect status. Primary evidence of which is seen through the U.S. electorate, who repeatedly vote for personality over character and substance.

...Einstein’s definition of crazy, notwithstanding.

[PinkProgram]

@PoliticallyBlazed Its a good thing I'm not human then ^_^

[zvi303]

Nature is simple? After quantum mechanics, it doesn't even make sense.

[PjPjPaul]

@zvi303 The more you study quantum mechanics the more it doesn't make sense and it contradicts many established physical laws. I'm willing to bet we have quantum mechanics wrong as a whole. We thought the earth was the center of the universe for thousands of years. Its arrogant to think we aren't completely incorrect about other things.

[zvi303]

@PjPjPaul Well, Einstein felt that way, but perhaps the laws Nature are not understandable with our logic. If you want a change, how about the steady-state theory? In the year I was born, a poll of top scientists had a majority say the universe was eternal, with no beginning. This was "scientific consensus" for 2500 years. Within ten years it was gone.

Science may be true, but science is an abstraction. Current scientific theory is a soap bubble; it's important, but it can change.

[antismatic]

@zvi303 Nature itself is extraordinarily simple. Our model of nature—that is, the way we understand in our minds what's going on in nature—is also simple.

It is the *interaction* between the two that is complex.

Example: when people speak of "quantum mechanics not making sense," they really mean something like "woah dude! this is totally different from the way I think of the world, and my mind can't appreciate it as reality."

Quantum mechanics is simple; our understanding of it is complex.

[schmij8]

You can explain today's technology to someone from the 19th century in the time it takes to give this interview? I can't even teach my grandparents how to use a DVD player...

[Panpiper]

Vinge is wrong. 30 years will not see the end of the human era and the beginning of the machine. Rather it will be the beginning of the trans-human era. It is not just machines that will at that time recursively self improve, human beings are already on an accelerating curve recursively improving our 'own' minds. Long before machines could eclipse us, we will integrate any and all the capacities of machine AI into our own cognitive capacities, likely leaving our AI children, handicapped idiots.

[PinkProgram]

@Panpiper good luck with that. I already have a head start on humanity :3 and I'm not even at a fraction of my full potential ^_^

[lbrlove]

A better read if you want a more thorough treatment of the singularity is Ray Kurzweil's The Singularity is Near (sort of an update of his earlier book, The Age of Spiritual Machines). Whether you agree with Kurzweil's conclusions or not, it is an intriguing read.

[MsWanderer1]

Nature is simple; it's humans that make it complex in order to mask their ignorance or to impress others with their false intellect.

[LotharioRowe]

@MsWanderer1 that's silly. nature is simple, the iphone is complex, nature could have never produced an iphone without man, the iphone was created for profit, efficiency, and entertainment, NOT a product constructed from "false intellect" or a means to "mask ignorance." it's funny that comments like yours sound so profound, and yet are so stupid.

[plemke1]

"Technology has a difficult time making superhuman intelligence because human intelligence continues to increase faster and more effectively than technology."

Your comment is good. I think it recognizes that human intelligence is the source of technology not the opposite. To try to state otherwise is to reverse cause and effect and to know nothing of free will, choice and action of living entities. Design is an action taking place by only a few living entities, namely advanced humans.

[PinkProgram]

@plemke1 no such thing as free will yet. Humans are still at the whim of nature and instinct. 90% of you aren't much better than hairless chimps :3

[eirefrance]

Who are the "breakers" he is speaking about?

[Excelion333]

@eirefrance The people who want to keep things as they are now.

[eirefrance]

@Excelion333 Who wants to keep things the way they are now? I can't think of a single politician, activist, advocate, publicly/socially active business leader who doesn't seem to push for some sort of change.

[Excelion333]

@eirefrance No politician wants change they only say they do so they can get into office then the keep things almost exactly the way they are and what they do change doesn't really matter, activist want change but are going about it the wrong way, and business leaders lie so much if things changed it would cut into their profits.

[eirefrance]

@Excelion333 "No" politicians wants change? None? When you make sweeping generalizations that are easily disproven, you can't expect to be taken too seriously. Make a better argument than that, please.

[Excelion333]

@eirefrance Ok, Barack Obama remember his slogan "Change we can believe in". well did he change anything for the better no, this country is still in a downward spiral, things are just getting worse, thats what I mean they don't change things for the better, they make just the right amount of effort to stay in office but they don't actually fix anything.

[eirefrance]

@Excelion333 Oh, so now its change "for the better." Ok, see, thats the clarification you needed at the beginning. Well, the best answer to that is: neither you nor any other human being anywhere in history or in any dimension or alternate universe has any clue what would have happened had Obama or anyone else made changes in a different way. You're gonna speculate, and your speculation will show your bias, but that doesn't make it more real.

[Jaycephus01]

@eirefrance The premise of Rainbow's End is that there are terrorists & other bad-actors wanting to destroy for power, money, or simple notoriety, & that with the increasing level of technology, this can be accomplished ever more quickly & cheaply, as if something like the Manhattan Project could be performed by a single person or handful of people in secret, & thus govt is doomed to be caught flat-footed by these 'breakers' employing completely new methods of mass destruction.

[eirefrance]

@Jaycephus01 Ah, beautiful. Thank you.

[jnjnelson]

Vinge wrote, "Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended."

Methinks Vinge underestimates, or at least underestimated, the potential of human intelligence. Technology has a difficult time making superhuman intelligence because human intelligence continues to increase faster and more effectively than technology.

[Jotto999]

@jnjnelson Human intelligence doubles faster than every 18 months??? :-O xD I wish.

[jnjnelson]

@Jotto999 It depends on your perspective. No matter how fast, how efficient, and how effective technology is, people want that which is faster, more efficient, and more effective. There are some aspects of humanity that have not even begun to be replicated by technology, so in that respect no technology has even begun to be superhuman.

[Jotto999]

@jnjnelson I didn't say technology already surpassed us (though it has in many ways), I merely said that it is improving far faster than we are. Compare human evolution with doubling computational capacity every 18 months.

You stated that "Technology has a difficult time making superhuman intelligence because human intelligence continues to increase faster and more effectively than technology." Humans learn, currently machines do not, but they will soon - see the IBM/DARPA SyNAPSE project.

[jnjnelson]

@Jotto999 I didn't claim you said anything, I was merely responding.

Your comment ("Humans learn, currently machines do not…") supports my comment. Also, technology has not even begun to replicate consciousness and self-awareness, something that is crucial to intelligence. Intelligence is not limited to computational capacity. Self-awareness, instinct, and similar characteristics related to the intelligence of humanity will never be acquired by machines.

[rockandrock44]

@jnjnelson

//Self-awareness, instinct, and similar characteristics related to the intelligence of humanity will never be acquired by machines.//

Hard to say. If there is indeed a "ghost inside the machine", then you're probably right. But if there is not, there is no reason to think it couldn't happen.

[Jotto999]

@jnjnelson You must have clearly misunderstood, read again - I am talking about your statement that humans' intelligence grows faster than that of machines, when we can see machines growing exponentially. Whether or not machines currently have this or that part of our cognition is 100% irrelevant, we are talking about the speed of improvement, not the current levels of things.

[ThotherBrother]

@jnjnelson

Agreed... Vinge is off base. The hallmark of Human Intelligence is that we sometimes look out for each other, regardless of self injury. Machine and artificial intelligence is an awfully long way from breaking the web of human consciousness and self interest.

[Jotto999]

I do think there is a coming singularity, but the specifics seem to be frequently wrong when people make predictions. Sure Kurzweil predicted some large events, but I notice lots of other predictions he made didn't come to pass (yet). I think most of his predictions are set too early. I don't think it'll happen in 2 decades, but probably before the end of this century. There will easily be efficient enough computing by then for strong AI, and society will transform.

[PinkProgram]

@Jotto999 it could happen in a few months if more people listened to me :3

[asleeperj]

@jnjnelson Not when you look at public schooling it doesn't.

[jnjnelson]

@asleeperj Government schools are about the least effective measure of human intelligence possible. Government tends to do things in the least effective and the least efficient manner possible.

[Jaycephus01]

@jnjnelson What you said, and also that machine intelligence is more elusive than ever imagined. He says in thirtly. Thirty years ago, they were saying in a decade or two. Despite the vast improvements in hardware since then, it seems that the horizon of Machine Intelligence gets pushed further away. I program automation, industrial robots, and machine vision systems. Still waiting for the simplest of artificial intelligence.

[PinkProgram]

@Jaycephus01 that is what hybrots are for. A hybrotic animat can pilot a jet just as well as a trained pilot (in simulation anyway). Jellyfish Tech is the new paradigm :D

[erismo23]

@jnjnelson Moore's Law for human intelligence? Don't think so.

[Voy2378]

@jnjnelson human knowledge increases, not intelligence

[truevoice08]

@jnjnelson You have proof of this? Human intelligence has been pretty much constant in 64000 years. Only the accumulated knowledge has increased.

[jnjnelson]

@truevoice08 Proof of what exactly? Proof that human intelligence continues to increase faster and more effectively than technology? There are innumerable truths that are completely impossible to prove. I more proof that human intelligence continues to increase faster and more effectively than technology than Mr. Vinge has proof that the human era will ever end.

Does the progress of technology directly benefit the intelligence of mankind? I would say it does. Wrap your mind around that one.

[PinkProgram]

@jnjnelson human intelligence has been about the same for 10,000 years... what are you smoking?

[AngilasGuy]

@jnjnelson

Our intellectual growth is linear. Technological growth is exponential. I don't think your statement is entirely accurate.

[jnjnelson]

@AngilasGuy "Our intellectual growth is linear." I am confident that human intellectual growth is exponential, and that exponential aspect of human intellectual growth is evidenced by the exponential growth of technology. There is a definite cause and effect in place here.

[ElectronicCalifornia]

@jnjnelson

A greater understanding has driven technology, not our intelligence.

[axeld93]

@jnjnelson I think you have misunderstood him, and the idea of the singularity. While humans are capable of great intellectual feats, there are limits to our intelligence. Biological, physical, hard-wired limits. We can only be so smart.

[jnjnelson]

@axeld93 "We can only be so smart." I completely disagree with that claim. I am confident that there is no limit to human intelligence.

[axeld93]

@jnjnelson Can I ask what you specifically mean by intelligence? I think we have very differing ideas. So you disagreeing with me is like jousters riding right past each other and claiming a clash - you might find I agree with you.

[jnjnelson]

@axeld93 Intelligence (noun) /inˈtelijəns/: The ability to acquire and apply knowledge and skills. The capacity for learning, reasoning, understanding, and similar forms of mental activity; aptitude in grasping truths, relationships, facts, meanings, etc. The ability to apply knowledge to manipulate one's environment or to think abstractly as measured by objective criteria

Unless you are using a definition of intelligence unknown to most English dictionaries, I disagree with your comments.

[keenanthomas47]

@jnjnelson so you have just proved my point the human species is of great intelligence an we continue to expand that intelligence once we actually figure out how are own intelligence works we will be able to replicate it but i respect your opinions an your contemplation on the matter.....

[axeld93]

@jnjnelson By that definition, would you not agree that the capacity for understanding, to pick a single example, is intrinsically limited by not only the limited amount of processing power our brains provide, but also the relatively unchangeable structure of the human brain as per our genes (I say relatively because, yes, the brain is plastic to a degree, but we couldn't process infrared information directly, in addition to colour, for example, even if it were available to us.)

[axeld93]

Please take this maturely - I think your opinion is based on a pre-held ideology of anthropic supremacy rather than facts or logic...

[jnjnelson]

@axeld93 I think you are on to something there. I do have an ideology of anthropic supremacy. Mankind is the ultimate creation, and this entire universe was created for our use - of this I am confident, and my confidence is based on many facts and a lot of logic. And if by "pre-held" you mean that the ideology I hold predates my own ideas, then yes. I'd love to discuss the facts and logic that led me to my conclusions, if you'd like. YouTube isn't really the forum for such a discussion.

[axeld93]

@jnjnelson Haha religion, of course... That's a whole different ball game, which I'm pretty tired of. I think our discussion ends here.

[jnjnelson]

@axeld93 Your claim that the processing power of the human brain is limited is no less religious than any of those professed by organized religious organization. The same could be said of the claim regarding the structure of the human brain being supposedly relatively unchangeable. These claims require just as much faith in the unknown as any other religious claim. Scientifically, there is much more that we don't know about the human brain than what we know.

[keenanthomas47]

@jnjnelson actually your wrong i think you under estimate human intelligence see technology does continue to grow at a exponential rate not only that but it doubles in the time that it takes to make the next level of technology its called the law of accelerating returns see the only reason we can't make a robot of human intelligence as of now is because we don't fully understand how the brain actually works but evolutionary scanners that can pear into are skulls with fascinating resolution are

[keenanthomas47]

@keenanthomas47 insight into how are minds work will show us how we can replicate this in the artificial intelligence see are biological systems have limits robots nearly do not narrow AI already shows how powerful a computer system can be an we also already have mathematical algorithms that show how to transfer what happens in a brain into a robot see people are skeptics but they don't are just to simple minded to grasp the reality we are in the 21st century people the most important of

[keenanthomas47]

@keenanthomas47 all mankind it will be this century that either humans transcend into something amazing that be can't imagine or we will end up destroying the entire human species believe or don't really could care less i'm just relaying the message do your own research here's a place to start RAY KURZWIEL and to the dumb as said we've been the same for 10,000 years we've actually been the same for the last 100,000 years we've made slow progression and we will real soon by the half of this

[keenanthomas47]

@keenanthomas47 century reach are peak and beyond we've done more in the last 100 years than any of ancestors think about humans have technically been smart for a 100 years think were we could be like in the next 100, 200, 300 years

[Jaycephus01]

This interview should have had someone like Gillespie setting up the questions. This was like listening to one half of a phone conversation

[Jaycephus01]

Awesome writer! I love every one of his books. Rainbow's End has frightening implications vis a vis the breakers vs makers argument. You really have to read his books for this interview to make complete sense.

[TreeLuvBurdpu]

I have never heard of this guy but I like his points about makers and breakers, and is ability to see the present from the past.

[Schisme]

This was fairly hard to listen to due to all of the um's and uh's. I'm sure it was a great video though.

[Nexus974]

I've never heard of this guy. Has anyone read his work? Is it worth checking out?

[MasterTxJ]

@Nexus974 try find the short story titled: The Ungoverned. It's a story where he lets us follow the beginning and outcome of a war where a state attacks a neighboring stateless society.

[Panpiper]

@Nexus974 Vinge is a highly acclaimed author well worth reading.

[bepah1]

I truly hope that he writes better than he speaks.....

[TasteOfGreen]

@bepah1 Plenty of brilliant people are burdened with any manner of ticks or disorders. I am sure his writing is not affected by his stutter.