Calm Before the Storm

[WhiteShark392]

Heinberg: "We could be seeing $150 to $200 per barrel oil within the next year."

PeakMoment: "It's here."

Three years later, the price of oil is less than $80/barrel. Oopsy doopsey.

[peakmoment]

@WhiteShark392. He was right, actually. A month later in mid-July oil spiked to $147. It probably helped trigger a bit of the economic collapse of fall 2008. So prices went down as economic activity went down. Have you noticed this year that even when there's plenty of oil, and gasoline prices usually go down in winter -- prices are not down? World oil production has peaked, and the upward trend on oil prices, though they'll vary along the way, is our future.

[multiverse3]

@WhiteShark392 Well, petrol is 86 because of the recession. Did you notice, each time we have a better day on Wall Street, the price of petrol grows as much as the DOW index? This is why the recovery will never happen unless we learn to live without the cheap oil.. I predict this recession will last for about 30 years as we are trapped in by demand for cheap oil and the need for economical growth .. The only alternative is to learn to do the same things we do now, with less energy ..can we?

[brradsullivan]

this lady is so funny ..."oooh ya, thats bad...right? " hahaha ps the comment about natives was great

[anatoriac]

Whether you believe in God or any religion, it is irrelevant. We come from the earth, we will return to earth and all through our lives we rely entirely upon the earth, and upon each other.

I think the only ethical way to live is to take complete responsibility for our existence and for the existence of our children.

[TheNewRenaissance]

WOW! Seems like he pointed directly to the absolute failure of the 'God Hypothesis' at around 23 minuets. A perfect description of the fundamentalist Theists as the comments on this video clearly demonstrate!

[estoboy29]

iv got an idea to fix food and mat issues.place a pvc system over a building and run water through it, and let grow hemp for the first year to produce the materials needed to get eco friendly. fill our streets with hemp pots full of veggies and blast them with our lovely supersoakers. whos for that future?

[racinkc]

truth is all I hear

[soccerswimsing1]

Wow..... Who listens to this stuff

[peakmoment]

Good question. Mostly appears to be people becoming aware that the end of cheap oil is right around the corner, and it'll affect every bit of our lives.

[dhymers]

well, since you're 22, it should in reality be YOU listening to this stuff.

It's our future.

[CandianBear]

you can not negotiate with depeletion... we can only adapt. Resilence is the correct word- absorbing shocks and keeping it together! i wish you all luck for it is going to be wild!

[hyperlocavore]

"brittle system" is a perfect term!

[Chaffinch4]

For those folks who "don't believe in the peak oil theory" maybe listen to the oil guys:

------------------------------­-------------------

Total says oil output near peak

The world will never be able to produce more than 89m barrels a day of oil, the head of Europes third largest energy group [Christophe de Margerie] has warned, citing high costs in areas such as Canada and political restrictions in countries like Iran and Iraq.

London Financial Times, 15/02/09

[funex1]

My, what a lot of people commenting here have Alex Jones and NWO videos as favs. So no surprise the same people talk about the "peak oil and over population myth". I'm glad they aren't coming out with their anti-Semitic conspiracy theories tho.

Are you saying that oil production will NEVER peak? At what point (if any) do you think the earth will be over-populated?

[KiffBell]

No, the world is not overpopulated. There are 6 plus billion people well fed and living in harmony with each other. And even better, there are unlimited supplies of everything.

I do not like children starving and being brutalised by idiots. I do not like people talking shite.

Richard is spot on.

[KiffBell]

There are some terrifyingly stupid people around. Richard Heinberg is certainly not one of them. There are limits. Fossil fuels are limited, studidity is not.

[SteveCvil1]

The World Is Not Over Populated,If You Believe That It Is ,Then ..PROVE IT!!

Or Sit Down And Shut Up!

All The Peoples Of The World Fit Comfortably Into Australia..Each With 1/4 Acr Block Of Land..Leaving The Entire Rest Of The World Unoccupied..Don't Believe Me Then watch.. My Feature Video(the Big One) on Youtube Channel.

*****stevecvil1*****

[Isawanangel1X]

i hope orion project get's their crap together quick, it's like de-industrialization or something

[mrmultidextrous]

This civilization is collapsing because of overpopulation and a corrupt leadership and over reliance on fossil fuels, with no acknowledgment that (only now) they are limited resources. "You will pay the price for your lack of vision." - Palpatine in Star Wars : A New Hope

[randallsellis]

A most excellent representation of where we are at this moment in time.

[JoopShoop2]

You mentioned that those with appropriate values deserve to survive possibly. Sounds like Nazi Germany. Let God decide who will survive. Oops, you do not believe in a creator God. This world is dying, God is going to let it just about destroy itself. Then he is coming back to judge us. Wether you believe it or not. Big Corporations, Greedy people, all those who pretend to be something they are not, and the prince of this world (Lucifer) cause evil (ALL).

[JanLauGe]

@JoopSjoop2: "You mentioned that those with appropriate values deserve to survive possibly. Sounds like Nazi Germany!"

Did you even listen? He was referring to ALL human beings in general. And he was pointing out that the qualities that make humans special and valuable might be the ones that ensure our survival (e.g. creativity)

Look out of your window. This Planet, Nature, God is dying. We are killing it. Judgement will surely follow, but not by the hand of god but inevitable disaster!

[JoopShoop2]

Hi JanLauGe, God is not Nature, and he is not dying. He created it. He said it is cursed. Someday soon he will destroy it by fire, and not by flood as before. He will create a new heaven and new earth. Earth worshipers are worshiping the creation and not the creator. I am a good steward of this planet, it is money and power hungry greed that temporarily is destroying it. Still it will be judged but not by man. It is also dying you are right. It was cursed in the garden (Sin). Watch & See.

[jbryant13]

"Civilizations" collapse because in their pride they forget God and think themselves as gods. God is the creator of life and when mankind thinks they can control life be it the "choice" to abort a child in the womb or manipulation of creation for evil (ie Monsanto) the problems have the same root.

When man worships creation (the environuts) over the creator - that is a false god. God will not be mocked. This guy is probably largely correct in his assumptions - albeit for the wrong reasons.

[greggerritt]

Vote McKinney/Clemente 08 Green Party. Heinenberg's thoughts are exactly what motivates us, and has motivated us in the US since 1984. Stop voting for war, close down the military industrial complex which underlies the conversion of forest into wasteland. Get more community gardens. Vote Green in 08 greg gerritt

[PlanetThoughts]

Good presentation. My own take is that the world may scramble to get the last drops of oil from shale, coal-to-oil, and the Arctic, but in the near future oil availability goes down rather quickly and the cost of everything jumps up. Amory Lovins is fine, but I feel he does not confront where things are headed - and where they already are for many in Asia and Africa. Choking on one's own air in Beijing tells you where they are and are headed, for example. The time to act is now, ASAP.

[5starrater1]

when I first worked this out I got so scared I could barely do my regular job properly. A few weeks later, I had aquainted myself with all the local garden centres, bought seeds, dug up a part of my garden, bought a greenhouse, and planted. Thanks for the inspiration. x

[wrenchmandan]

"peak oil" is about the cheap easy oil.there is plenty of oil but it wont be cheap and easy like what we are getting now. I think we are gonna see standards of living dropping like a rock. live it up while its here people. our worlds could be rocked anyday now

[rewards1dude]

Guys PLEASE look at other sides of the argument. These people (Heinberg) come out of the wordwork everytime gas prices get high. Please don't take what they say at face value. Look at their credentials. Heinberg has none.

There is no reason to be preparing for economic collapse, search for Amory Lovins. He says the peak oil issue is a DISTRACTION. Nobody can know for sure when it will occur so lets start improving efficiency now. We have enough reasons to get off oil without "peak oil"

[rwstoploader]

'Look at their credentials. Heinberg has none.'

'There is no reason to be preparing for economic collapse,'

Heh, you really don't get it do you.

[jbryant13]

Personally I think "peak oil" is a crock (as is man made global warming).

That said - there is MOST DEFINITELY a financial collapse coming - in fact we are in the process right now.

It is caused by the international bankers attempt to control the worlds resources through manipulation to establish the New World Order (UN World Government). Their goal is to micro-chip everyone and control all financial transactions. Their main goal is population reduction through food (i.e. Monsanto).

[ngonea]

Thank you! you are so correct

"AGENDA 21" is a good place to check for all you ppl buying into the peak oil myth and the over population lie. I guess this is how they put the German ppl to serve Hilter's agenda. They will swallow the lies, let history repeat iself, and then justify it.

[TheNewRenaissance]

At least parts of 'Agenda 21' are an inappropriate solution to a very real problem. Why would the oil companies be stretching off shore drilling technologies to their limits if they didn't have to? Learn about Permaculture and the work of people like David Holmgren, Bill Mollison and Masanobu Fukuoka. There is another option that really can care for everyone equitably.

[jhunted7667]

have the oil goes for electricity but they have discoved a generator that makes electricity for free , its over seas they won't let it come here along with other technologies

[rewards1dude]

Heinberg is NOT an expert in any field relating to peak oil. Why consult him?

Peak oil is largely overblown by the doomers. Oil consumption fell 4% in the U.S. since last year. During the 1979 oil crash oil consumption fell 14% and didn't catch up again til 1995. During this period we enjoyed the same lifestyle, and the same economic growth. We didn't need every damn drop of oil we used. Improved energy efficiency is doing wonders. 1/5 cheaper to save than oil to buy oil (Amory Lovins)

[peakmoment]

Certainly conservation and efficiencies need to be the first plank in our plan. But although U.S. demand has dropped, it is dramatically increasing in China and India, as these and other countries industrialize. At some point, even efficiencies won't reduce the global demand--because populations and consumption continue to grow.

[rewards1dude]

Of course they will. We consume a monstrous 25% of the global oil supply, with Europe consuming 1/2 the oil per capita. This is not merely a result of better public transport. It's the result of gas price floors and super-aggressive fuel-efficiency standards. Here in the U.S. we aren't doing any of that. So we still have plenty of options to deal with this in a way that doesn't cause big issues. Our drop in demand is more than the rise in demand of China and India COMBINED. 4% drop since 2007

[rvbarnesboy]

Dear All,I know the isolation of awareness of the coming trials facing our species. I can't really talk to anyone, either. they really don't want to know. One wants to weep. informed action, with love. relocalize. could be a better way of life done right.

[peakmoment]

You'll find others. They're there...maybe feeling alone like you are. For everybody that wants to connect with others: one place to start is to see whether there's a relocalization group near you. Go to relocalize (.) net. There's a map and listings of about 200 groups worldwide, mostly in the US.

Yes, I think we might end up with a better way of life: simpler, more connected to each other and our planet home.

[rewards1dude]

Blah blah blah. Let's go hide in a grass hut and wait out the "impending doom" of peak oil. You guys are pathetic. This poor melodramatic guy: "isolation of awareness of the coming trials of our species" man-up wimpy boy. Peak oil has several solutions, and the market is helping to bring them about. You're idea of helpful solutions is living like the Amish, my idea (as well as physicist Amory Lovins' idea) is improved efficiency and economic growth.

[postpeakman]

how about a little respect please rewards1dude.

improved efficiency? can anyone say "Jevons Paradox"?

[mettez]

I feel so alone, i can't talk to my friends parents, collega about this. I try every day they just wont listen... it's sad. I'm 29, I can't buy ground to grow my own food in belgium, there's is non left, to expensive and verry poluted. thank you for this wonderfull program.

[peakmoment]

It may take some effort on your part, but there are others who need you, too. We need to work together, finding new ways to cooperate and share. Are there peak oil awareness groups in your area? Community gardens? Farms that could use interns? People with land but no ability to garden, who'd love to share that with you? You may feel alone now, but if you reach out, I'll bet you find connections. Good luck!--Janaia

[rewards1dude]

You first heard about this from lifeaftertheoilcrash didn't you? I was the same way once. Then I saw past the doomer propaganda.

Search for Amory Lovins on youtube. Doomers would have you believe that there is nothing we can do. This is nonsense. We have hundreds of ways to easily combat this. You don't need to buy land. Just conserve more and promote energy efficiency, not living in a grass hut. I wouldn't listen to you either if you came to me with that nonsense.

[peakmoment]

Actually I read Amory Lovins (~1992) many years before I heard of peak oil (2005). I avoideded lifeaftertheoilcrash because the notion of dieoff felt way too horrific.

The "doomers" I'm reading, like Kathy MacMahon, are encompassing not only oil, but the decline of other critical resources and ecosystems, climate chaos from our burning of fossil fuels, and overpopulation. The WHOLE picture.

[rewards1dude]

Exactly. I too look at the big picture. How can you reduce emissions most effectively? By improving efficiency. When a car uses half the gas to travel the same distance, it's emitting half the C02. It blows my mind why hardly anybody is talking about this issue in a positive and constructive way. Conservation through efficiency (and other ways) is key. It seems the only people we see on TV are Matt Simmons who says we should have "drilled more" 10 years ago to "combat" the problem.

[peakmoment]

I agree. First conserve. Pres. Jimmy Carter had us started on the right track, and in the 1980s the Reagan administration headed us in a different direction.

Conserving is the first plank in Heinberg's Powerdown strategies.

[Thunderwavia]

Yah factors like Islamofacism, IRan, the green Nazi's, their alliance with Russia, China, all that crap. So when you factor in energy depletion, overpopulation, sea level rise, Intense hatred of new Facisms rising, global wars, and radioactive fallout, etc, its more complicated to oneday realize that you can not get gas, or your power goes out in a little outer suburb of Chicago for example. Think of the refugees, the rape gangs, the civil unrest, crime, revolution. organize state militia

[ManicEightBall]

@rewards1dude "Just conserve more and promote energy efficiency"

Heinberg and others have talked about conservation and what it would take. at current rates, you would have to use a small fraction of current use in order to stretch oil out significantly longer. Unfortunately, the Chinese and Indians are hoping for a future with many cars so they can live like us, so any conservation you do will be eaten away in no time.

Don't tell me who to listen to. Give me a good reason to believe you.

[simplespirit101]

The only 'problem' I have with this message and most other simuliar messages is that the people that need to hear this, won't.

We, the environmentally minded, watch peak moment, The End of Suburbia, Crude Awakening nodding our heads in agreement. The folks that don't(or won't)believe the peak is here not only don't watch, but read about, think about or discuss this issue.

Honestly, I am not sure what to do do about that; other than to just prepare for the worst and take care of my own.

[peakmoment]

We can't force people to awaken, can we? Denial is very strongly supported in our culture of "government will take care of you." But we CAN tell them what we're seeing. As Richard says, like on the airlines, put on your oxygen mask before assisting others. Prepare yourself and those you love, and be prepared to be a lifeboat for others. Those who see it coming and are prepared will be the first ones others will turn to as things worsen.

[valhala56]

I kinda of agree with simplespirit, Every person I ask, and I don't care what strata of society they are in if the ever heard of "Peak Oil" not one so far has ever heard it. My wife came across one young lady at her job who was knowledgable.

In a way simplespirit is right it's very much preaching to the choir, Now I am not saying that a lot of people will come unboard with shows like Peak Moment, but I fear it is too late. Luv your show though!

[valhala56]

We might want to emulate the tv show "Survivor" and vote off the world people who are not contributing to the common good. This would allieavet some shortages, and get rid of troublesome characters.

[rarelibra]

who do you lump in that category? Sounds quite subjective, and can harken such things as profiling, human worth, etc. No, just let the economy wash sort it all out.

[peakmoment]

Do you really want to play God -- decide who lives and dies? Who among us is pure enough to do that? Unfortunately, I think there are people already doing just that--exterminism--targeting the poor,people in Africa, Afghanistan, Iraq, etc.

[valhala56]

Hi peakmoment, I'm not sure if I was being serious when I made that comment. If I was misunderstood in my attempt for humor I apologize.

[peakmoment]

Whew, thanks. Your humor went way over my head.

[Rawmodel]

This is one of the best programs on youtube. Thank you so much for sharing this with all of us...you inspired me to do the same!

-Anthony

[peakmoment]

Thanks, Anthony -- for watching, for subscribing, and for telling your friends about Peak Moment. We always welcome ideas for new programs. You can also subscribe to our occasional email newsletter with behind-the-scenes info at the peakmoment -dot- tv homepage.

[KARStarla]

They both "called" the unhelpful attitudes that are prevailant out there didnt they?

[PhotoNika]

This week, its ALL been about resilience for me.. so wild that this is what Richard is emphasizing right now.

I will be pulling together our first relocalized food security meeting this coming week .. building my local resilience (perhaps without being too overt about the other expected shocks, at first)

[beginswithme]

We've been living in a permaculture environment with photovoltaics in our earth sheltered home since 1984...it is not only possible but easily feasible even at our latitude of 47 degrees north. We've developed community and we each have a cottage industry which disconnects us from the daily commute. I believe electricity will be our salvation...provided from a wide variety of sources.

Jimmy Carter said our dependency on oil is the moral equivalent of war. 32 years ago.

People scoffed.

[unreallogic]

check out VisionVictory to for weekly updates on this stuff.

[peakmoment]

VisionVictory channnel on YouTube is tracking and reporting on the economy, cutting through the story fed to us by the U.S. Government and the Federal Reserve (who print our money but are a private company, not a governmental entity).

[joshuabrock1971]

Great, great stuff Janaia as always! Your vlog is one that I always look forward to each week...can't wait to see it.

I've turned alot of folks here in Boulder that I speak with on to your episodes. Sholyn has it just right...from one of your presentations by Michelle Long, "We don't need a MASSIVE solution...we need a MASS OF SOLUTIONS".

[peakmoment]

Thanks for your support and for sharing it with other folks. Michelle is so right--because the solutions and responses will be different for different regions, and different communities. We need all kinds of creative ideas to respond to energy and resource depletion, economic contraction, and longterm climate changes. We're always interested in those projects & ideas for Peak Moment shows--send 'em our way.

[sholyn]

I really, really wish people would wake up to the inevitable.

Everyone shold do their part in reducing the fallout of the collapse.

Just do somethings like composting, making the most of the resources you have.

........reduce your output wastes..........etc etc

[skoop1234]

p.s. nice skirt!

[skoop1234]

Janaia - excellent interview with Richard.. I really appreciate the 'heads up' to start preparations, and the concept of useful fear.

Some of Eckhart Tolle's observations could be quite helpful in understanding the coming collapse...are you familiar with his latest 'New Earth'? How wonderful if you could interview Eckart about this Peak Momement!

In solidarity, --- David Lee

[Mechman064]

2. I tried again recently to get some of my tv hypnotized neighbors to take this problem seriously but even now they're just too comfortable. I guess they won't wake up till things get a bit worse.

So while I'm waiting, I've armed myself and am practicing with my pistol every weekend. If I'm called upon to defend myself or my immediate neighbors from a bunch of hungry blood thirsty gang members, I want to be ready. The world is about to get real ugly so I'm getting ready to be ugly too.

[babarji]

this is a tragic way to prepare and will not make you secure. The way to prepare is to build community around you - make friends with the people around you so that when trouble comes you turn TO each other, not ON each other.

[valhala56]

babarji, it's possible there will be some community but there will always be those who will cause this situation to devolve even futher. We already have millions of guns in this country and I have no doub't they will be put to use.

[valhala56]

babarji, it's possible there will be some community but there will always be those who will cause this situation to devolve even futher. We already have millions of guns in this country and I have no doub't they will be put to use.

[Mechman064]

Hi Babarji

There's no reason why I can't do both. I'm making friends with my neighbors and I'm also getting ready to defend my life with deadly force. So in a year, if a bunch of crazy bikers kick in your door, you and your family can give them a big group hug and see if that helps.

In any community there must be people who are willing to defend that community or the community is looted, burned and forgotten. Right now the police can do it but they may need help when things start to get bad.

[Mechman064]

Hi Babarji 2

Today I was out on my deck garden, shoring up my peas that had fallen down, thinning out the broccoli and so on. I talked to 2 of my neighbors (at length) about what's headed our way, and they're starting to "get it". I gave away 2 big bowls of salad mix from my garden and spoke of how important gardening will be soon. I also suggested they stock up on groceries till they have a couple months extra and get ready for hard times. That's building community. See, I can do that too ( :

[djgbroughton07]

I am concerned with comments of arming yourself and getting ready for the worst scenario. Unfortunately human kind has got to a point where technology, peakoil, global warming is upon us,and we must do something about it globally not locally. The theory of the grass roots approach will take to long to right the wrongs of past generations.I do belive technology and the coming Singularity will be our only hope for humans to live in harmony with each other

[Mechman064]

I've been talking to friends, coworkers and family about this for 3 or 4 years now and I get that same weird surreal feeling Richard speaks of. Until last December I didn't expect any real problems for 2 or 3 years but now it appears things are going to begin to tank before the year is out. Woa! This is weird!

I'm about as well prepared for this as I can be with a normal working man's income to work with. I've been battening down the hatches for about 8 months now.

[yellowtreat]

Great Interview!

[valhala56]

We ought to hire Amish and Mennonites as consultants to assist suburban America to live a sustainable lifestyle. Note: lost couple of years I have seen Amish traveling in vans, and I'm thinking wow even the Amish are using fossil fuels.

[fuggybootnling]

I feel extremely fortunate that my hometown is Kitchener Ontario Canada. There is a big old order Mennonite population in this county...I lived in Toronto for 10 years but have chosen to resettle here because that "resource" (if you want to call it that) I think will be invaluable.

Agree TOTALLY with the surrealness of this ACTUALLY starting to happen. There is a PO Meetup Group that I am travelling (by bus!) to Toronto for tomorrow. At City Hall...the idea is that now that...

[dugfriendly]

Thanks for having Richard Heinberg on to keep me on point.

[raw4healing]

Thanks Janaia and Richard for sharing this important information. Hopefully more people will look into alternative energy resources and put it to use asap, as well as ways to conserve and cutback. Plus support our local community gardens and farmer's markets.