What happens when we ASS-U-ME? Unfortunately we will only see Peak Oil in the rear view mirror. We didn't see the US Peak of 1970 until the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973. Scary.
Unfortunately the impact of the oil crunch in 2008 created a demand-destroying and growth disrupting paralysis in most countries. The ones who still have equity are now buying up whatever energy and mineral resources are available ina world of deep financial distress... Here is Australia we have plenty of natural gas we can switch to, though China has most of it right now. America will collapse and destroy more demand before it becomes irrelevant. War is most likely.
Well done. Chris is indeed artful in making sense of complexity and, in particular, bringing to life a complex issue via systems thinking and modeling. Through a short time investment, the return in terms of increased understanding is significant. This is a great example of modeling tools--which can be easily coupled with other dimensions on knowledge to enrich the leadership equation.
I'd like to see Chris demonstrate the tool with some other salient issues, such as global warming, the current economic meltdown and the government's response. The power of the tool, of this way of thinking, is impressive. But it's definitely not for those people who are afraid to think, to wrestle with complexity, to deal with something other than simple absolutes.
This is a great example of the power of systems thinking and modeling to make more useful sense of complex problems that don't respond well to more casual ways of thinking. And given that the complexity we face--as individuals and as a society--are on the rise, this is going to be an increasingly vital tool. Chris has done a nice job of illustrating the power of this critical thinking approach in a very short time. Well done.
This is a clear and compelling explanation for why the concept of Peak Oil is not just a concept, but a reality. I appreciate the use of the Systems Modeling tool to help articulate the relationships involved. This is clearly just a beginning!
Thought: It would help to have another screen shot of the web link to the actual simulation at the end of the video.
Nicely done. I like the complementary approach with the video discussion and then the ability to play the sim following. I can't say I really gained a better understanding of which estimate or approach is better than another, but at least I gained an appreciation of the challenges facing energy modelers.
This is a well done exposition on the oil situation, and an understandable demonstration of the power of systems thinking and systems modeling as applied to the oil situation.
a helpful way to see how various assumptions will impact the equation that calculates when we will run out of 'black gold'. Is there any way you can include a calculation to show what will happen if some outlaw group accidentally takes down an entire refinery in a developing country such as Nigeria as it tries to pirate some oil?
Chris' video is a great introduction to the issues of peak oil and the way dynamic systems thinking can help us think through the implications our assumptions have for forecasting and planning. Useful for both students of the subject and decision-makers!
This is an excellent introduction to both system dynamics modeling and the consumption of oil. Thanks Chris, please keep inform us with this excellent tool. BTW, you have a good voice! Joey Chan
Wow, thanks for laying it out so we can better understand it. Challenging the assumptions proves to be very interesting and also scary! I am going to send this to the science teacher at the middle school!
Chris Soderquist has done a great job revealing the importance of oil reserves, and offers each of us a means to estimate what reserves remain. He provides a user-friendly, objective application of a systems dynamics model to allow us to simulate oil reserves on our own. I encourage people interested in the interaction of our environment and the economy, as well as middle school and high school classes in environmental studies and economics, to watch the video and use the tool.
peak oil is bullshit, it's just big corporations manipulation . Remember scarcity creates PROFIT !
MrEatmy 5 months ago
What happens when we ASS-U-ME? Unfortunately we will only see Peak Oil in the rear view mirror. We didn't see the US Peak of 1970 until the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973. Scary.
rdsanchez1966 1 year ago
wonder what big companys and greedy banks will do when there is no oil left.
tunastrike11 1 year ago
religon is fake i hope your minds will evolve past it one day
Blastbox4 1 year ago
Unfortunately the impact of the oil crunch in 2008 created a demand-destroying and growth disrupting paralysis in most countries. The ones who still have equity are now buying up whatever energy and mineral resources are available ina world of deep financial distress... Here is Australia we have plenty of natural gas we can switch to, though China has most of it right now. America will collapse and destroy more demand before it becomes irrelevant. War is most likely.
icurhuman2 1 year ago
I personally think growth is more like Curly or maybe even Shemp than Moe.
drmodestoesq 2 years ago
karr
ilovecrimemobalbo 2 years ago
peak oil = 4 billion+ dead
fruitybud420 2 years ago
Chris has demonstrated how to analyze complex problems in such a way that is easily understandable through the use dynamic modeling.
The model is easily constructed and each and every step can be readily modified to evaluate the effect the change would have on the entire model.
This "systems thinking" approach has endless applications both in life and in business.
Thanks for the demo of this process Chris.
abba01 3 years ago
Well done. Chris is indeed artful in making sense of complexity and, in particular, bringing to life a complex issue via systems thinking and modeling. Through a short time investment, the return in terms of increased understanding is significant. This is a great example of modeling tools--which can be easily coupled with other dimensions on knowledge to enrich the leadership equation.
frankbonomo27 3 years ago
I'd like to see Chris demonstrate the tool with some other salient issues, such as global warming, the current economic meltdown and the government's response. The power of the tool, of this way of thinking, is impressive. But it's definitely not for those people who are afraid to think, to wrestle with complexity, to deal with something other than simple absolutes.
macuserdesu 3 years ago
This is a great example of the power of systems thinking and modeling to make more useful sense of complex problems that don't respond well to more casual ways of thinking. And given that the complexity we face--as individuals and as a society--are on the rise, this is going to be an increasingly vital tool. Chris has done a nice job of illustrating the power of this critical thinking approach in a very short time. Well done.
macuserdesu 3 years ago
This is a clear and compelling explanation for why the concept of Peak Oil is not just a concept, but a reality. I appreciate the use of the Systems Modeling tool to help articulate the relationships involved. This is clearly just a beginning!
Thought: It would help to have another screen shot of the web link to the actual simulation at the end of the video.
kaleidoscope65 3 years ago
Nicely done. I like the complementary approach with the video discussion and then the ability to play the sim following. I can't say I really gained a better understanding of which estimate or approach is better than another, but at least I gained an appreciation of the challenges facing energy modelers.
wglasshusain 3 years ago
This is a well done exposition on the oil situation, and an understandable demonstration of the power of systems thinking and systems modeling as applied to the oil situation.
DHaygeman 3 years ago
Awesome way to get the concepts accross. Its really go me thinking about SD applications for the domain I work in...
jnmclaren007 3 years ago
a helpful way to see how various assumptions will impact the equation that calculates when we will run out of 'black gold'. Is there any way you can include a calculation to show what will happen if some outlaw group accidentally takes down an entire refinery in a developing country such as Nigeria as it tries to pirate some oil?
23rip 3 years ago
Chris' video is a great introduction to the issues of peak oil and the way dynamic systems thinking can help us think through the implications our assumptions have for forecasting and planning. Useful for both students of the subject and decision-makers!
ecologyofmind 3 years ago
This is an excellent introduction to both system dynamics modeling and the consumption of oil. Thanks Chris, please keep inform us with this excellent tool. BTW, you have a good voice! Joey Chan
birdviewjoey 3 years ago
Thanks Chris. Wonderful job as usual. We need to make sure our elected officials see this.
mrolfrye 3 years ago
Wow, thanks for laying it out so we can better understand it. Challenging the assumptions proves to be very interesting and also scary! I am going to send this to the science teacher at the middle school!
alisabrisson 3 years ago
Chris Soderquist has done a great job revealing the importance of oil reserves, and offers each of us a means to estimate what reserves remain. He provides a user-friendly, objective application of a systems dynamics model to allow us to simulate oil reserves on our own. I encourage people interested in the interaction of our environment and the economy, as well as middle school and high school classes in environmental studies and economics, to watch the video and use the tool.
88denali 3 years ago
Very useful. Thank you!
quisquosepdx 3 years ago
Excellent overview of systems thinking.
jaybuckey 3 years ago