lonecretin is a very screwed up and sick individual in need of help...just check out his own link full of hatred and self loathing. I wouldn't even waste my precious time debating with mental illness personified!
His infamous book, the Singularity is Near, has been analyzed thoroughly by the scientific community. Their conclusion? Garbage.
Now that all copies of his book has been forgotten and left to collect dust, he is trying to grab our attention with a few films, "The Singularity is Near" and "Transcendent Man", both of which will flop miserably. I see his cinematic efforts as little more than a temper tantrum to get noticed again.
His books are revered by many in the scientific community; although I do disagree with him a lot; I haven't heard many describe any of his work is garbage; hmmm this sounds more of your opinion. I tried to point out something below but apparently, it's too long. Email me if you want to discuss.
Even Wikipedia, that hotbed of information, disagrees with Kurzweil's outlook on technological progress. Under Kurzweil's entry you will find a great deal of skeptical analysis about his predictions.
Kurzweil pulled his 2045 date for the Singularity out of thin air because it conveniently falls within his last days. He is a Da Vinci desperate to see powered flight come to frution within his lifetime, despite the immense lack of progress, resources and ingenuity to make it possible.
Many other futurists project a singularity to occur around 2035-2045; futurists who are much younger than Kurzweil (Schmidhuber, Doctorow, Goertzel, John Smart, Yudkowsky), and therefore more likely to witness the singularity, and futurists who are older than Kurzweil (Vinge, Arthur C. Clarke [RIP], Toffler, Kaku, Broderick, Garis), who are less likely to witness it, but think such a projection is nonetheless accurate according to current exponential trends. So your theory is complete bullshit.
Doctorow, Smart, De Garis and certainly Kaku don't think so, they think it will take longer. From what I've heard from Kaku, he thinks Kurzweil is too optimistic in his timeline estimates and it will take thousands of years to get to the Singularity.
Doctorow thinks it will happen within our lifetimes. Smart thinks 2040-50. De Garis: within our lifetimes. Kaku's enthusiasm seems to have grown quite a bit (check his recent documentary "The Intelligent Revolution". Kurzweil makes several appearances). "Yudkowsky and Goetzel are chasing impossible goals" = baseless. Vinge was also a leading computer scientist. Toffler and Broderick are still relevant :/ I agree with Lanier on several things. I'll have to check out Modis and Seidensticker.
Yudkowsky and Goetzel are chasing impossible goals, Vinge is just a sci-fi author, Clarke was a pie-in-the-sky dreamer and Toffler and Broderick have dropped out of the game for a while now.
Kurzweil's theories are seductive to most who come across transhumanism for the first time, but for realistic analysis of trends, drop him and read Bob Seidensticker, Ted Modis and Jaron Lanier instead.
He's not right at all about his dates. This century will see people living their lives as they always had throughout human hstory. Birth, school, work, marriage, kids, retirement and death will remain unchanged until possibly sometime in the 22nd Century.
Ray pulled his 2045 Singularity date straight out of thin air to delude himself that he would barely make it under the wire. His endless graphs are full of logical and historical errors.
Skeptic Magazine's recent article AI Gone Awry: The Futile Quest for Artificial Intelligence explains the absurdity of Kurzweil's claims much further.
He's not right about all of his dates; you are correct. The century is already seeing vast change. Birth - genetic programming (already taking effect) - will allow parents to ensure that their children will not develop harmful predispositions. Work - will be changed to a degree, as it has always continued to change (and it has changed massively). Marriage - again this has changed and may or may not but that's not what this is about is it?
lonecretin is a very screwed up and sick individual in need of help...just check out his own link full of hatred and self loathing. I wouldn't even waste my precious time debating with mental illness personified!
DK0526 3 years ago
His infamous book, the Singularity is Near, has been analyzed thoroughly by the scientific community. Their conclusion? Garbage.
Now that all copies of his book has been forgotten and left to collect dust, he is trying to grab our attention with a few films, "The Singularity is Near" and "Transcendent Man", both of which will flop miserably. I see his cinematic efforts as little more than a temper tantrum to get noticed again.
lonecretin 4 years ago
His books are revered by many in the scientific community; although I do disagree with him a lot; I haven't heard many describe any of his work is garbage; hmmm this sounds more of your opinion. I tried to point out something below but apparently, it's too long. Email me if you want to discuss.
Bzdi138 4 years ago
Even Wikipedia, that hotbed of information, disagrees with Kurzweil's outlook on technological progress. Under Kurzweil's entry you will find a great deal of skeptical analysis about his predictions.
lonecretin 4 years ago
Kurzweil pulled his 2045 date for the Singularity out of thin air because it conveniently falls within his last days. He is a Da Vinci desperate to see powered flight come to frution within his lifetime, despite the immense lack of progress, resources and ingenuity to make it possible.
lonecretin 4 years ago
Many other futurists project a singularity to occur around 2035-2045; futurists who are much younger than Kurzweil (Schmidhuber, Doctorow, Goertzel, John Smart, Yudkowsky), and therefore more likely to witness the singularity, and futurists who are older than Kurzweil (Vinge, Arthur C. Clarke [RIP], Toffler, Kaku, Broderick, Garis), who are less likely to witness it, but think such a projection is nonetheless accurate according to current exponential trends. So your theory is complete bullshit.
Panamango 4 years ago
Doctorow, Smart, De Garis and certainly Kaku don't think so, they think it will take longer. From what I've heard from Kaku, he thinks Kurzweil is too optimistic in his timeline estimates and it will take thousands of years to get to the Singularity.
lonecretin 4 years ago
Doctorow thinks it will happen within our lifetimes. Smart thinks 2040-50. De Garis: within our lifetimes. Kaku's enthusiasm seems to have grown quite a bit (check his recent documentary "The Intelligent Revolution". Kurzweil makes several appearances). "Yudkowsky and Goetzel are chasing impossible goals" = baseless. Vinge was also a leading computer scientist. Toffler and Broderick are still relevant :/ I agree with Lanier on several things. I'll have to check out Modis and Seidensticker.
Panamango 4 years ago
Yudkowsky and Goetzel are chasing impossible goals, Vinge is just a sci-fi author, Clarke was a pie-in-the-sky dreamer and Toffler and Broderick have dropped out of the game for a while now.
Kurzweil's theories are seductive to most who come across transhumanism for the first time, but for realistic analysis of trends, drop him and read Bob Seidensticker, Ted Modis and Jaron Lanier instead.
lonecretin 4 years ago
He's not right at all about his dates. This century will see people living their lives as they always had throughout human hstory. Birth, school, work, marriage, kids, retirement and death will remain unchanged until possibly sometime in the 22nd Century.
Ray pulled his 2045 Singularity date straight out of thin air to delude himself that he would barely make it under the wire. His endless graphs are full of logical and historical errors.
lonecretin 4 years ago
Skeptic Magazine's recent article AI Gone Awry: The Futile Quest for Artificial Intelligence explains the absurdity of Kurzweil's claims much further.
lonecretin 4 years ago
He's not right about all of his dates; you are correct. The century is already seeing vast change. Birth - genetic programming (already taking effect) - will allow parents to ensure that their children will not develop harmful predispositions. Work - will be changed to a degree, as it has always continued to change (and it has changed massively). Marriage - again this has changed and may or may not but that's not what this is about is it?
Bzdi138 4 years ago
At least Kurzweil admits he could be wrong about some of his predictions, unlike your baseless certainty.
Panamango 4 years ago
Go Ray! I so hope he's right about future technologies for all our sakes
finalgirl23 4 years ago