I think that the problems are more in the emotional/political domain than the logical domain that computers could help with. In my experience the government officials would never obtain the opinion/advise from anything/anyone than might not give the answer they want. They expect to be able to create the problems so that they can produce the answers. Real problems like collapse are frustrating diversions to their agenda.
Well I was thinking eventhough it may offer no solutions, just do it for the hell of it. I am now playing a multiplayer internet game that is very complex, they also spent millions developing it for entertainment purposes. Now I know it is not a real economy and neither is the Jet aircraft anything but a scale model that they put in a wind tunnel. But it does provide some usefull data.
So if they can spend $400 Million on Avatar,$100 mil on a game, why not severel Million on the fate of world.
this is one step away from really hitting the fan. if a major oil producing nation decides to stop accepting the US dollar for oil you would see gold hit 5k overnight
@valhala56 pretty scary huh, not to mention how many people will actually try and take your gold dead or alive once they know you have it lol, stay safe
Yeah, one thing more plentifull then gold is weapons. The typical household arnsenal could almost field a squad of troops in afghanistan. Everything but grenades.
I think if there is major collapse it will be martial law and mayhem with weapons at the same time.
The oddball massmurdering gunmen we are used to every month or so will become a daily experince here in the US.
Obama could solve it overnight by nationalising the federal reserve and installing a gold backed currency, which will immediately wipe out the bulk of debt and stabilise the dollar.. But his backers wont let him do that
its an interesting idea. But the programming would be extremely complex and might not really work well. It would have to include national and cultural interactions and changes in people beliefs and sentiments. How could you program x factors like war, catastrophes Or a domestic insurrection?
Yes it would be a hellious program but they could use the assistance of the Supercomputer itself for the model. Look they spent 100 million dollars to make Grand Theft Auto 4. Now you would think if they would spend that kind of money on a dang video game, that they would at least spend a similar amount just to see what a supercomputer would predict when it comes to the fate of the world economy. I mean charts are great, but how about simulations and ecomic models played out in AI?
It's much simpler than that. Study and develop an understanding of Austrian Economics and you can draw the logical conclusions for yourself. Austrian Economics is not dependent on algorithms and formulas. They are logical arguments that you can apply to various problems. Super computers can be used to predict the outcomes of closed circuit problems, like chess. They can't accurately predict what kind of food you will decide to eat for lunch with any reliable accuracy.
I'm all for the Austrian School, the problem is some people are in it and some are not, A way to show evidence of the correctness of the Austrian school is to run a Simulation,Everbody has seen all the charts and experts, I'm just saying let's see a model run and see what conclusion that comes to. The world is at stake here, you would think they would use every tool available to find the proper course wouldn't you?
No, because if you read even a worthless standard keynesian economics 101 textbook you will notice the definition of a model which is: a simplified representation of an economic environment, often employing a graph. Also economic models by definition must rely exclusively on assumptions to make predictions. Those assumptions (variables) may or may not be correct. Therefor your models predictions may or may not be correct, and they model itself will necessarily neglect peripheral data.
Haha, ok so your saying a model created in computer would be erroneous, but one employing a chart on a piece of paper would not. Well that is the funniest thing I heard all damn day. What makes you think Assumptions on a piece of paper makeing a chart is any more reliable?
Look friend I am not saying make a model global economing in a computer & do what is says, I'm saying do it for helluva it. they spend $100 million on game you would think they could do the same for the fate of the world.
This is the way I look at it, up until the late 20th century aircraft, ships ect used charts, ,maps to ie paper to plot courses. Well now we mostly use GPS's even in our cars, I have a great one and I don't use paper maps anymore and the GPS takes me right to where I want to go, much better then paper maps ever did.
Economics is all charts, graphs, talking heads pundits, econmist makeing guess's.
I think part of the problem is democracy. To start a program like your talking about would take a lot of investment and probably a long time to program. Obama came to office in a shit storm he didn't really know much about. He had to do something. If he did nothing, he would be being attacked for not doing anything. If he tried to get this proposition you are talking about passed, he'd probably be attacked for that, regardless if its a good idea, So he did the stimulus and is getting attacked
Well I pretty agree with ya there. I'm just saying do if for the hell of it. Just out of curiosity to see what factors, stimulus, or letting banks for fail or debasing the currency or going for a globaly currency or even something nobody has thought of yet cause we are thick as a brick and keep repeating the same mistakes.
For me personaly my life has improved 1000% since I was able to use the power of computers and the internets and I know I would be poorer, lonely, and bored with out a pc.
I'm not saying its a bad idea, but obviously the accuracy of the results depends heavily on the input, and if that input is flawed, partial or incomplete, then its going to be incredibly difficult to draw reliable conclusions...
Well I would think that is how they make all the charts & graphs we see all the time. They input the data and wala Pie chart on economy comes out. Now granted this would be much more complex & that is why a super computer is needed.
Nobody says we have to do what the computer says, we can just look at what it comes out, we change certain parmaters & then see what happens in the model.
They can stimulus or not add, see what changes. They can project unemployment, foreclosures ect.
Computers can only work with quantitative data. They cannot work with or predict the actions of human beings (the actual actors of the economy) which are based on qualitative factors. People have been trying to compute their way out of economic hurdles for many, many years. Further, any computer can only work with what they are given, and thus will not incorporate overlooked factors, nor discount erroneous assumptions. Central planning of economies doesn't work, ever.
If I told you the Gulf Wars were war gamed on Computers before any soldiers actually set foot in Iraq you would probaly think that was a good idea, ie use the computer model of the invasion not as the sole plan but as an adjunct to planning the invasion.
Somehow people think only economist have a clue what's going on and from what I have seem most of them have been wrong.
We have looked at thousands of charts yet nobody has shown us a computer model.
That may be correct, however I would like to add that computers have been used to study & predict traffic patterns, Crowds at Stadiums in stampede situations & In War Games.
Not to mention as I said in the vid no human has beat a computer in chess since the late 90's. Chess has nuance's that are qualititive.
I think diffuculty lies in makeing a program as complex as this, however since this is a matter in huge significance, you would think they would at least give it go & see what comes out.
Well, sure, they've tried to use them for all those things, but car crashes still happen, people still get trampled in stadiums and soldiers still get killed in war and fail to meet their objectives. You can simulate any damn thing you want, it doesn't mean that's how it's actually going to work (see "global warming"). As for chess, there are a finite number of games which can be played. It only appears qualitative because we cannot comprehend all the variations. Supercomputers can.
Well now that you mention climate change that is another example that the data from SuperComputer concur with Ice Core, tree data and the Planetary Scientists have the models of climate change to work with. If all they had were charts & pundits then like the economic situation you would have 100 different conclusions without seeing how the differering scenarios could be played out.
If RockStar games could invest $100 million dollars for GTA4, I don't know why the Goverment couldn't do the same
Do they now? From what I've read, global warming tends to come BEFORE CO2 increase, not after. Besides, the Earth has actually gotten cooler in the last 10 years, not warmer. And, even if you knew everything that went into climate (and we really don't), and could absolutely predict its action, this still wouldn't be applicable to humans because humans are influenced by factors which are not perceptible from the outside. We are subjectively-driven creatures. No computer can take that into account
People mistake me for a enviromentalist "tree hugger" I'm not. I'm a Peak Oiler. I think the Greenhouse effect train has already left the station & there is not a whole helluva lot we can do about it. They are expecting the Artic ocean to be ice free for the first time ever in few years. This mean less sunlight reflected back into space, which means higher temps. It is very much like the economy, a downward spiral the worse it gets the harder it is to turn it around.
Actually for both the economy and Global warming, I prefer Greenhouse effect myself, from what I see it is already to late to stop a Global depression or a planet overheating. To me this is mostly an academic exercise.
I will bet you 10-1 that we are going into a depression that is going to make the 1st Great depression look like a kid losing at Monoply.
The U3 is over 9%, every day the news is more grim then the previous. Everybody laughs at "Green Shoots"
Well, I agree with you on the depression anyway. I call it the "Greater Depression". I won't say "Greatest", because with those supercomputers of yours, they may be able to drum up one even greater sometime in the future.
@sharazel, they have great models for Greenhouse effect, it is called the planet Venus, surface tempeture 800 degrees Farhenheit.
I'm not too woried about it myself, I'll be dead before the really bad shit comes.
& yes the earth goes throug periods of Global warming & ice ages, due to volcanism & other factors now add in all the Co2 released from Oil in the last 150 years that was buried in the ground & we set it free to heat the planet.
hey if you choose not to belive that's fine with me.
This actually makes perfect sense to me considering Goldman Sachs is making 100million plus daily, using super computers...As someone said previously, putting in all the correct information is necessary to get the full scope of the problem...is that possible??
It is not impossible to create economic models on a Supercomputer. As I explained in the video Supercomputers have been used to model weather, climate change, energy usage, the effects of atomic war, modeling galactic collisions, CERN uses super computers to measure the experiment conducted in the Large Hadro Collider.
We typicaly see lots of charts & talking heads yet there has been no discussion whatsoever on economic models run on Super Computers.We are trying to guess what is coming so why?
Goldman Sachs only exploits the known quantitative limitations of the technology used to conduct commerce in financial markets. It has no predictive value for overall economic trends at all.
No, but by exploiting those limitations, aren't they essentially manipulating the market...
I don't know anything about the stock market so I could be way off, but it just seems to be, if you can take advantage of anything by exploiting the volume, that becomes a form or manipulation...
Sure, they're manipulating it, and making money in the process, crooked bastards that they are. But this has no real application to what this video proposes.
It's most likely already been done, by the people that created the the crisis. That way they would know the what the outcome would be. Just like in chess. Think moves ahead! They don't want anybody else to do it. Right!
This economy is very predictable! You would not need a super computer to predict the out come ! This is Problem Reaction Solution ! This recession was created by design! Now they (gov) will sell us the Solution at the cost of civil liberties They know how to fix it.... They don't want to fix it.... Not until we give up more of our rights
I pretty much agree with you. If some independent Super Computer similations run then that would be exposed!
Now people are just stunned/numbed and confused. They are told there green shoots, this is just a recession. Pundits on tv giving their opinions some of which defy logic.
It would be great if a Simulation would show how the current Bank Bailouts would lead too not to mention adding in Cap N Trade into the model.
Yep you got that right friend. They "Gov. & the major players" live & tell so many lies.
I wouldn't trust anything coming from the Goverment or the media anyway.
I would like to see Simulation runs coming from Universites all over the world and then the pundits talking about the models, how the predictions are different, similar etc.
But your right friend, nobody trusts Wall Street, the stock market anything anymore.
thezog, your not exactly right there. They have done computer models of traffic patterns, ie cars with indivuals driving them, crowd patterns in stadiums and they the simulations do make accurate predictions on what these indivuals in the crowds do.
They do the same thing with advertising, data mining, Psychological profiles of consumers.
Maybe not 100% accurate but in the high nineties. They wouldn't do these forecasts if they were useless.
@thezoj First of all, it's just a model. Just like all the charts, graphs and stastics economist use. Just a tool. Second you can program in random events or even better game it with actual humans and study that.
Impossible...you cannot predict what markets will do. Why? Well, you cannot know what decision an individual will make. Let alone a crowd. Why overcomplicate things anyways? The problem is very simple.
SNL Figured it out
"Don't Buy Stuff You Can't Afford!"
You want to fix the problem and have an economy that will actually last?
Ban Leverage!!!
Want to make more money? Quit being lazy and increase efficiency.
You have a simple prescription, don't buy stuff you can't afford and ban leverage. Ok, run simulation on that model and then see if that does a better job then bailout bubbles?
My concern is that some people think we are sinking into a Global Depression.
If that is the case it seems to me that you would want to use your very best tools to aid in the decsion makeing process.
Charts and economic experts are not enough.
If it was such a waste of time why is the Pentagon using HPC's?
Nope not that complicated. Man is his own worst enemy.
This all explains why the Galaxy is so devoid of intelligent life. When they get to the point in there civilization where we are, they can either overcome their planetary crisis or collapse their civilizations.
The problem today is like physics, you are trying to look for loopholes in the fundemental nature of economics. There's only so much wealth in the world in the form of the three industries, the only way you can generate wealth is to get it from those industries, there's no loophole that allows you to get wealth without having to do anything.
The supercomputer will tell you: A) suck it up and accept lower living standards and B) go back to work.
Back to the crux of the problem. Central planners (with computers of any power) can't orchestrate the economy. The economy needs to compute itself at every node. Every economic actor needs to be free to choose it best action, it's fallacy to think the economic actor can be directed from above, from some central authority. The FED in its history, over its history, has failed to, and is, by true economics, incapable of performing its mandate. That's "our" point -- not that computers are no good.
To venture into a slightly different direction some people for example Ray Kurzweil propose that we are on the cusp of what is called the Technological Singularity.
When this leap of artifical intelligence occurs the intelluctal capacity of machine intelligence would leap at such a rate that it could bypass the best in Human computation exponentality. ie as big a difference as we are to our pets for instance.
This type of "machine" central planning could rewrite economic theory entirely.
Kurzweil is coming out with his Singularity movie this fall. He is now saying his guess when machine intelligence outpace's human intelligence is in the 2030-50 time frame.
So yes, your machine slave will be clueless on your choice of morning beverage for probaly at least another 20 years.
To my orignal point, the Singularity would solve this economic crisis, it's just not going to be in time to do it.
The confluence of Peak Oil & economic collapse will not be solved by humans, its too big
Remember the other half, software. Chess playing software are actually simple tree searches. If you've never written a computer program, just write one of the simplest examples "Hello World" using whatever language - may I suggest Ruby. Then think about writing the economic simulator. There's the crux. BTW, there are economic simulators, the FED uses them... FAIL! LOL
Carlos, your probaly right. Maybe I give computers more credit then they deserve. My question to you though is we have seen all the hockey stick charts, the pundits, Schiff, Roubinin, Faber, Soros, make the prognosis like economic Physcians. The Pt is terminal.
You said the Fed uses Simulators, how do they compare say to what the models at MIT or Standford? Are the conclusions similar?
I haven't seen any SuperComputer model talked about in the media.
I'm not an expert in this, so I'll just try to send you the right way. Try Wikipedia's Agent-Based Computational Economics.
But remember that chaos makes all errors significant!
Plug into some working model the bogus fraudulent real state mortgages and you get a rosy prosperous outlook that duped the FED, instead of the crash. What for a distributed free market banking would have been a few bankruptcies from bad banks, takes down the entire centralized financial system instead.
At any rate all humans set up mental simulations in their minds trying to guess what is going to happen in the future. I'm not a trader but it seems to me that is your game, You try to predict what stocks are going to make money. Now if your simulation is good and or lucky you make money.
I bet if you had in your possesion a Super Computer you would probaly use it in your stock picking.
Your right though Carlos the Mathematicians that create the Algorithms for the Derivatives beast and the MBS's that got out of controll did this using such Computational Economics. Their Flaw was that the Algorithms were only modeled on the premis of makeing profits, not on the economy as whole. These people using Set Theory are very specialized & tend not to see the bigger picture.
Yeah they created monsters with their exotic financial products that are not being corrected now just made worse
Valhala56 - (2) What I want to know is how were the Europeans so easily fooled into buying American junk. When all they had to do was use the internet and they could have read many articles discussing this real-estate time bomb. And why are the citizens of Europe not upset about this. You rarely see anyone posting videos from countries that are in worse shape than we are here in the USA. I guess they are cool with being jacked?
I saw some show talking about a small town in Norway investing in this junk. They had invested city funds into it because they were mislead by the salesman touting the rating agencies ie Moodys as saying this with AAA stuff.
Your right, they admitted they did not check it out and belived the Salesman.
I bought a car the same way. I learned a lesson too. LOL
Valhala56 - (1) Part of the reason why we are in this mess is due to the mathematical formulas used with super computers to calculate the risk in CDOs and Credit Default Swaps. This is the core reason why ALL of the unregulated investment banks ended up failing. Putting your faith in financial modeling is the wrong solution when the banks and AIG committed outright fraud and remain unpunished.
I think that avenue hasn't been looked into because that doesn't consern those who are in power. They don't care about the people, they only care about controle and more for them and less for everyone else. What is happening for the banks with the "stimulus" is how they make more money and take it away from the population. People are expendable!
Well one of my hopes with this vid is that somone with access to a HPC supercomputer, will run some economic forcasts and different models to put up against the Goverment Plans and the prescriptions the so called experts say that are needed in this situation.
I agree with you that they don't care about the people, witness tent cities springing up here in there.
Part of the problem is this: First of all, the entire mess of neo-liberal market policy started with mathematical attempts to model human behaviors which went against the grain of everything that sociology, history, political science, and other social sciences had to tell us. Second of all, everyone already knows what will work. Fair taxation works. Maintaining, when necessary, a degree of national economi self-reliance works, careful regulation of our involvement in trade works
and while this line of thought is treason to free market thought, protectionism works. However, nobody, largely including many members of the democratic party, seem to be willing to cease in their attempts to ice-skate up-hill at present. No super-computer required. People have money, they will spend money. However, if you gradually reduce the average consumer's real income for about 30 years, eventually, too many people are forced to survive on credit.
I agree with most of what you just said. Just a note, I just bought a pair of shoes from what I thought was American company Converse. I thought wow, great shoes from an American company at a great price. Looked inside the shoe-said made in China :(
When I was 16 years old I worked a Summer job in Shoe factory in Georgia.
I guess America doesn't see the need to make their own shoes anymore, just get em cheap from China.
Very true. A lot of problems across the board right now can be tied back to the "Just build it in the 3rd world" attitude. A lot of kids used to pay for college cash upfront by working the summers away at factories. Now, not only can you not do that anymore, which diminishes the incentive to even go to begin with due to all the good work being in India at present, even in the case of people who once thought themselves too smart to be outsourced like Engineers and Accountants,
but it also basically means that college grads are busy paying student loan debts off ( or not paying student loan debts off) to settle down, buy a starter home, get married, have kids buy a car, etc. This is partially why we're rapidly dipping below the rest of the West in terms of average education level and also why our population and economies are shrinking. But, as you pointed out, it's a widespread systemic problem that we've got on our hands, and we should use every resource available.
I'm saying my generation has screwed over your Generation with our "Middle aged people" need for McMansions, Lexus, BIG 401K, Real estate investment, buying two wars and letting you guys pay for it, Not investing in renewable energy and buying GIANT, SUV's and wasting all the future OIL on our trips to Vegas at your expense.
If I were you friend I would start asking for justice. I have said this to other middle age people and they laugh at me.
That's very big of you to say, and I appreciate your sense of responsibility, but people my age are a long way from guiltless in this mess. My parents are highly educated people, and I was raised in a GM shop town in Michigan. The one thing that was always hammered into my head by my parents and teachers, even as a kid was "go to college, because the factories are going to Mexico, and you don't want to get stuck without a job." Well, that's great, BUT:
The elitist bullshit, the every man for himself attitude, and the acceptance of the status quo is built right into that crap, and I, like many others from the young generation, bought right into it. Some of the kids I grew up with were frankly blue collar Joes who would readily tell you that college wasn't for them. However, many of them are close as my own brother, so does that mean I should just say "I've got mine, fuck you suckers that I grew up with" like so many others actually do?
But, sad to say, this is the prevailing attitute in many instances. Also, frankly, I think that the bulk of people in my general age group are terribly uninformed about just about everything excluding possibly sports and entertainment, and I also generally believe that far too many of the young and educated in particular have been supportive of current policy even when they are the ones ultimately damaged by it in the long-run.
When you have a system that is built on only self interest from the top to the bottom and the system encourages this mentality then people will do the wrong thing. They will make Unqualified mortages, they will sell securities they well know are worthless as long as they get their commision and up and down the ladder it goes.
My generation was warned about coming shortage, we didn't care as long as I can fill my SUV for $20 bucks.
In my mind people should admitt it was wrong to start wars and doing it on the installment plan. let future generations pay for our Jingoism. People who tried to voice dissent against the war muzzeled, Dixie Chicks and Sean Penn come to mind.
Labeled as Unpatriotic and Traitors.
Now the very people who call these people traitors are boohooing about the finacial mess that they did nothing about, even thought it was great idea, wars, financial derivatives, rapeing the earth for Oil & Gold.
I agree, I heard in another video on Youttube the possibility that the accuasation that Obama was not experienced enough resulted in the mistake of picking what he though were experience advisers, i.e. Geithner people who are entrenched in the system and will continue the same diastrous path.
Again, that is why I think relying on people to make the critical decsions can be flawed and that we you use economic models on Super computers to look at the best outcomes. There may be a little time left
I like obama's idea of a civil defense corp. It's the opposing force necessary to counter the state's forces which we all know have mostly been compromised by corporate power. That might be the opening that we all need for civil unrest and maybe something even bigger...
Why for example was it necessary to make work into simple repetitive steps in an assembly line so that even a moron can do it? Farming involves lots of muscle, but not much brains. Ever seen a dog lift his leg to mark territory? Now you know why there is a similar way of marking your territory with "libertarian" free marketers. Enough is simply not enough for the people at the top that's marking their territory on everything and is running the world right now.
We are talking about the "Bush Goverment" they were a pretty slow on the uptake bunch.
But beyond that, I just saw on CNN today some NGO Scientist located Bin Laden with a super computer and told the Feds where the most probale places he is. No reacation.
valhala56. You cannot model culture in a supercomputer. American culture much like much of global culture grown up from an agrarian culture of rape, slavery, stupidity and laziness. Most people who are rich and powerful are heirs to empire builders inherited from the agrarian patriarchs of the past. Most people who are technically smart are also territorial and selfish and won't solve any problem without huge payoffs and ownership rights. Why is this? Historical development of the world.
I don't know Joe, Grand Theft Auto lV did a pretty good job of modeling American culture. $100 million cost to produce, sold $500 million in the first week.
Liberty City replicates the nerve center of capitalism & commerce with trade in narcotics, contract jobs, International relations, the auto industry in all types of vehichles one can use to attain more wealth and influence on others in the simulation.I don't know if GTAlV would make a better world but you can it off if you choose, LOL.
Ron Paul is a deluded ass. What I'm trying to get at goes right to biology and human development and not simply politics. Ever encounter people that are so hostile and dominant that they absolutely won't listen to any advice or admit errors. Advice is seen as a threat to authority and not help. Alpha apes like this exist everywhere in the world especially in the upper echelons of society and usually they are of what gender? Alphamen have less to lose and lots to gain for being wild and selfish.
Some people are saying that collapse will bring people closer. People will form closer bonds to help each other. I am of the Wild Ape Travis school who recently Connecticut ripped the face off the owners best friend resulting in Travis owner sticking a knife in him with police haveing to put Travis down with the old 357 Magnumn.
So in essence I am of the Mad Max School of human devolution, I hope I am wrong.
Cognitive dissonance is largely the explination for said behavior. If a deeply held belief fails in practice, it's followers often knuckle down and redouble their efforts despite evidence to the contrary of said beliefs. Same behavior was evident in late-Soviet policy. It was also this strain of ideological inflexibility, not incomparible to free-market economics, an idea that sounds good on paper but has failed world-wide, particularly in extreme cases, that contributed to Soviet downfall.
I agree Cognitive dissonance plays a big part in it.
I thought though if this crisis is as serious as everybody says then we would employ every tool we have to come up with solutions.
Yes we have some smart economists, but they only think in terms of their speacialty and indivuals no matter how bright can't see the whole picture, groups of experts I think are even worse.
We need to model simulations and look at likely probalities of success.
valhala..exactly. I had NO idea until recently (after reading Dr Paul's book The Revolution) and I almost had a heart attack!!! Now I want them gone...PRONTO!!!
I too have woke up from my lifetime stupor and become aware of the Wizard of Oz that I thought was a fantasy of my childhood was true. More and more people are realizing this.
A computer regardless of it speed is only as good as the program running on it. Different economic models will produce different outcomes. With the physical sciences there are quantifiable and qualifiable laws. If I drop a ball I not only know it will fall but fast how long etcetera. If I were to give someone a million dollars who knows what they will do?
BTW the computer you jave on your desk was a supercomputer 30 years ago.
Again, I am not saying that we take orders from Super Computer. I am saying we have this analytical tool available, we used it in the past in Atomic reseach, weather forcasting, Oceanography, Astophysics, using it now at CERN on the Large Hadron Collider.
It seems silly to me not to use a tool that is available because it is modeling a virtual economy.
We would only use this to make odds on probability, what is most likey to happen. The human would make the final Decisions.
Rather than argue over the yes or no we would be arguing over the democrat model or the republican model. All your examples are from hard science. Economics is not. It is like having a computer determine the winner of the Bud light debate. Is it less filling or better tasting?
My reply to you is that whether your Republican or Dem if you just rely on who is makeing the Decision & hope they are lucky & right. This is the fate of the world, & it seems to me that you would want to use every analytical tool available to increase the odds of solving something more complex then less filling or better taste.
But hey, I'm to the point where fuck it. The so called experts have so totaly screwed it up & most of you can accept their ineptness rather then try something different
I would also like to add on your anology on dropping a ball, that is only probability, in the sense that one there is a 1 to (1000) that a ball may dissapear according to Quantum Mechanics.
Very unlikey probality but it is there. If your using Newtonian gravity then you can put that in your quantifiable calculation for reality.
Super Computer can't tell you what will happen, it will tell you what the probality or odds of something happening are.
I think several supercomputer models of possible outcomes would be helpful....however, supercomputers can not model "Irrational Behavior". Actually, Kasparov in movie "Game Over" claims IBM intervened during match with human chess players...and IBM never allowed a rematch after victory (stock rose 15% after victory).
In order for a computer program to play irrationally, it would have to irrational risks. The market is choke full of irrational risks...providing a complexity!
That could be factored in similar to a Airline military flight simulator where mechanical failures are thrown in then there would be a response by the operator.
A machine could handle a lot more unkowns then even the best human minds could up with. As I said I don't nessacarily say we should take orders from a machine, just use it as we use any analytical tool.
All we have now is the best guess's of so called experts and talking heads.
ok, good for training human responses (eg, flight sim).
good copy, would be helpful as an analytical tool.
In which case, I would like to predict that it says: "Dissolve Federal Power to a minimum, you can't control this problem....let it all be hashed at state and local levels..... you let the Corporations take over the FED GOV thru Congress"....
That is my guess too. I think they already run the simulation and they don't like the results, ie abolish the Fed. Let the banks go under ect. So they aren't talking about that they are using every asset at their disposal. We all know the NSA has got HPC's. Probaly already run the simulation.
There is no need to simulate... This baby is going down. Obama is going to install 1000 more printing presses to keep up the supply. Why dont they listen to the guys that have been right since 2001? Peter Schiff and Ron Paul? Because they dont care to know the truth.. They dont care about us or the dollar.. This is it folks.. Its history in the making.. The revolution is going to be so beautiful.. I cant wait! It needs to be peaceful!
Yeah they don't need to simulate, but I want more then so called experts telling me what the answer is. Look they did 1000 polls a week during the election trying to guess the outcome of the election. There are few polls on the economic situation. Just different talking heads giving their best guess's.
I want no bia's Computer scientist's running a global economic model with all the data we have, I explained in the video computers have more power computation then humans, DAMN IT USE IT!
Dont get me wrong.. You have a great idea. I would love to see what it spits out. Like the game The Sims, only more focused on monetary policy and corruption. Maybe they should come out with The Sims The Revolution.. lol
I'm wondering the same thing, during the election CNN was playing around with Star Trek like Holgraphic telepresense and using a Microsoft large touch screen, for moving data around with the touch of the finger.
It seems curious to me that a problem of this magnitude is left to a few politcos to decide a course of action that could make the situation worse.
Why not use all the analytical tools we have at our disposal? Or has it already been done & they are keeping the results to themselves.
excellent point, I suspect they know that, however, they do not want to solve the crisis that was created to usher in new policies, oppressive laws and likely a new currency after the total transfer of wealth is complete.
In this video I am not saying that we should do whatever a Super Computer simulation concludes. What I am saying is that nobody is talking about it. Nobody with a Super Computer is working on the most serious problem of our time. If we are to just rely on politics to work this out then it is no better then gambling.
We need to have Simulations or Models run in various Universities see what the conclusions are of these Economic forcasts and have a better grasp at what we are dealing with.
I agree with you in that it could 'possibly' find a solution.
I can't speck for cv1122, but the point that I am making is that "they" don't want the problem fixed. Otherwise, this sort of strategy would be employed to address the problem.
They already have and have not told us. THEY are setting up exactly what THEY want and doing it as their computer models indicate. Yet, all our advanced super-computing has yet to predict the weather a week in advance accurately. The fundamental chaos of NATURE has not been tamed, control is an illusion. THEY will fall.
My suspicion is that they have too, they haven't talked about it because they don't like the prognosis, ie let the banks fail. That kind of thing. I don't know.
Predicting something as complex as weather for a week is still quite a feat.
They invested $100 million dollars in the develepment of a game Grand Theft Auto 4 simulating a world, I want to know why they can't do the same with all the economic data we have?
Lets just stop the wishfull thinking and get real hard data!
Right, This isn't 1933. They didn't have computer much less Super Computers to make Economic forecasts with better reliability. Think of it like this the tools that Weather forcasters have now are light years better then the weather forcaster of the early 20 th century.
If FDR had the technology the we have now the outcome would probaly have been different.
I would just like to know why isn't anybody doing global economic simulations?
I think that the problems are more in the emotional/political domain than the logical domain that computers could help with. In my experience the government officials would never obtain the opinion/advise from anything/anyone than might not give the answer they want. They expect to be able to create the problems so that they can produce the answers. Real problems like collapse are frustrating diversions to their agenda.
bigcollapso 2 years ago
Well I was thinking eventhough it may offer no solutions, just do it for the hell of it. I am now playing a multiplayer internet game that is very complex, they also spent millions developing it for entertainment purposes. Now I know it is not a real economy and neither is the Jet aircraft anything but a scale model that they put in a wind tunnel. But it does provide some usefull data.
So if they can spend $400 Million on Avatar,$100 mil on a game, why not severel Million on the fate of world.
valhala56 2 years ago
this is one step away from really hitting the fan. if a major oil producing nation decides to stop accepting the US dollar for oil you would see gold hit 5k overnight
limitedplay 2 years ago
Pretty much why I am cashing in cd's, selling all worthless crap, and digging change out of my couch to buy all the gold/silver I can.
valhala56 2 years ago
@valhala56 pretty scary huh, not to mention how many people will actually try and take your gold dead or alive once they know you have it lol, stay safe
limitedplay 2 years ago
Yeah, one thing more plentifull then gold is weapons. The typical household arnsenal could almost field a squad of troops in afghanistan. Everything but grenades.
I think if there is major collapse it will be martial law and mayhem with weapons at the same time.
The oddball massmurdering gunmen we are used to every month or so will become a daily experince here in the US.
valhala56 2 years ago
Obama could solve it overnight by nationalising the federal reserve and installing a gold backed currency, which will immediately wipe out the bulk of debt and stabilise the dollar.. But his backers wont let him do that
believerornot 2 years ago
its an interesting idea. But the programming would be extremely complex and might not really work well. It would have to include national and cultural interactions and changes in people beliefs and sentiments. How could you program x factors like war, catastrophes Or a domestic insurrection?
VikingNinjitsu 2 years ago
Yes it would be a hellious program but they could use the assistance of the Supercomputer itself for the model. Look they spent 100 million dollars to make Grand Theft Auto 4. Now you would think if they would spend that kind of money on a dang video game, that they would at least spend a similar amount just to see what a supercomputer would predict when it comes to the fate of the world economy. I mean charts are great, but how about simulations and ecomic models played out in AI?
valhala56 2 years ago
It's much simpler than that. Study and develop an understanding of Austrian Economics and you can draw the logical conclusions for yourself. Austrian Economics is not dependent on algorithms and formulas. They are logical arguments that you can apply to various problems. Super computers can be used to predict the outcomes of closed circuit problems, like chess. They can't accurately predict what kind of food you will decide to eat for lunch with any reliable accuracy.
themagus187 2 years ago
I'm all for the Austrian School, the problem is some people are in it and some are not, A way to show evidence of the correctness of the Austrian school is to run a Simulation,Everbody has seen all the charts and experts, I'm just saying let's see a model run and see what conclusion that comes to. The world is at stake here, you would think they would use every tool available to find the proper course wouldn't you?
valhala56 2 years ago
No, because if you read even a worthless standard keynesian economics 101 textbook you will notice the definition of a model which is: a simplified representation of an economic environment, often employing a graph. Also economic models by definition must rely exclusively on assumptions to make predictions. Those assumptions (variables) may or may not be correct. Therefor your models predictions may or may not be correct, and they model itself will necessarily neglect peripheral data.
themagus187 2 years ago
Haha, ok so your saying a model created in computer would be erroneous, but one employing a chart on a piece of paper would not. Well that is the funniest thing I heard all damn day. What makes you think Assumptions on a piece of paper makeing a chart is any more reliable?
Look friend I am not saying make a model global economing in a computer & do what is says, I'm saying do it for helluva it. they spend $100 million on game you would think they could do the same for the fate of the world.
valhala56 2 years ago
This is the way I look at it, up until the late 20th century aircraft, ships ect used charts, ,maps to ie paper to plot courses. Well now we mostly use GPS's even in our cars, I have a great one and I don't use paper maps anymore and the GPS takes me right to where I want to go, much better then paper maps ever did.
Economics is all charts, graphs, talking heads pundits, econmist makeing guess's.
valhala56 2 years ago
I think part of the problem is democracy. To start a program like your talking about would take a lot of investment and probably a long time to program. Obama came to office in a shit storm he didn't really know much about. He had to do something. If he did nothing, he would be being attacked for not doing anything. If he tried to get this proposition you are talking about passed, he'd probably be attacked for that, regardless if its a good idea, So he did the stimulus and is getting attacked
VikingNinjitsu 2 years ago
Well I pretty agree with ya there. I'm just saying do if for the hell of it. Just out of curiosity to see what factors, stimulus, or letting banks for fail or debasing the currency or going for a globaly currency or even something nobody has thought of yet cause we are thick as a brick and keep repeating the same mistakes.
For me personaly my life has improved 1000% since I was able to use the power of computers and the internets and I know I would be poorer, lonely, and bored with out a pc.
valhala56 2 years ago
I'm not saying its a bad idea, but obviously the accuracy of the results depends heavily on the input, and if that input is flawed, partial or incomplete, then its going to be incredibly difficult to draw reliable conclusions...
BlacksAreBeautiful 2 years ago
Well I would think that is how they make all the charts & graphs we see all the time. They input the data and wala Pie chart on economy comes out. Now granted this would be much more complex & that is why a super computer is needed.
Nobody says we have to do what the computer says, we can just look at what it comes out, we change certain parmaters & then see what happens in the model.
They can stimulus or not add, see what changes. They can project unemployment, foreclosures ect.
valhala56 2 years ago
Computers can only work with quantitative data. They cannot work with or predict the actions of human beings (the actual actors of the economy) which are based on qualitative factors. People have been trying to compute their way out of economic hurdles for many, many years. Further, any computer can only work with what they are given, and thus will not incorporate overlooked factors, nor discount erroneous assumptions. Central planning of economies doesn't work, ever.
sharazel 2 years ago
that was the point I was trying to make, just not as eloquent!
BlacksAreBeautiful 2 years ago
If I told you the Gulf Wars were war gamed on Computers before any soldiers actually set foot in Iraq you would probaly think that was a good idea, ie use the computer model of the invasion not as the sole plan but as an adjunct to planning the invasion.
Somehow people think only economist have a clue what's going on and from what I have seem most of them have been wrong.
We have looked at thousands of charts yet nobody has shown us a computer model.
valhala56 2 years ago
That may be correct, however I would like to add that computers have been used to study & predict traffic patterns, Crowds at Stadiums in stampede situations & In War Games.
Not to mention as I said in the vid no human has beat a computer in chess since the late 90's. Chess has nuance's that are qualititive.
I think diffuculty lies in makeing a program as complex as this, however since this is a matter in huge significance, you would think they would at least give it go & see what comes out.
valhala56 2 years ago
Well, sure, they've tried to use them for all those things, but car crashes still happen, people still get trampled in stadiums and soldiers still get killed in war and fail to meet their objectives. You can simulate any damn thing you want, it doesn't mean that's how it's actually going to work (see "global warming"). As for chess, there are a finite number of games which can be played. It only appears qualitative because we cannot comprehend all the variations. Supercomputers can.
sharazel 2 years ago
Well now that you mention climate change that is another example that the data from SuperComputer concur with Ice Core, tree data and the Planetary Scientists have the models of climate change to work with. If all they had were charts & pundits then like the economic situation you would have 100 different conclusions without seeing how the differering scenarios could be played out.
If RockStar games could invest $100 million dollars for GTA4, I don't know why the Goverment couldn't do the same
valhala56 2 years ago
Do they now? From what I've read, global warming tends to come BEFORE CO2 increase, not after. Besides, the Earth has actually gotten cooler in the last 10 years, not warmer. And, even if you knew everything that went into climate (and we really don't), and could absolutely predict its action, this still wouldn't be applicable to humans because humans are influenced by factors which are not perceptible from the outside. We are subjectively-driven creatures. No computer can take that into account
sharazel 2 years ago
People mistake me for a enviromentalist "tree hugger" I'm not. I'm a Peak Oiler. I think the Greenhouse effect train has already left the station & there is not a whole helluva lot we can do about it. They are expecting the Artic ocean to be ice free for the first time ever in few years. This mean less sunlight reflected back into space, which means higher temps. It is very much like the economy, a downward spiral the worse it gets the harder it is to turn it around.
valhala56 2 years ago
Actually for both the economy and Global warming, I prefer Greenhouse effect myself, from what I see it is already to late to stop a Global depression or a planet overheating. To me this is mostly an academic exercise.
I will bet you 10-1 that we are going into a depression that is going to make the 1st Great depression look like a kid losing at Monoply.
The U3 is over 9%, every day the news is more grim then the previous. Everybody laughs at "Green Shoots"
The leaders are clueless.
valhala56 2 years ago
Well, I agree with you on the depression anyway. I call it the "Greater Depression". I won't say "Greatest", because with those supercomputers of yours, they may be able to drum up one even greater sometime in the future.
sharazel 2 years ago
@sharazel, they have great models for Greenhouse effect, it is called the planet Venus, surface tempeture 800 degrees Farhenheit.
I'm not too woried about it myself, I'll be dead before the really bad shit comes.
& yes the earth goes throug periods of Global warming & ice ages, due to volcanism & other factors now add in all the Co2 released from Oil in the last 150 years that was buried in the ground & we set it free to heat the planet.
hey if you choose not to belive that's fine with me.
valhala56 2 years ago
This actually makes perfect sense to me considering Goldman Sachs is making 100million plus daily, using super computers...As someone said previously, putting in all the correct information is necessary to get the full scope of the problem...is that possible??
BlacksAreBeautiful 2 years ago
It is not impossible to create economic models on a Supercomputer. As I explained in the video Supercomputers have been used to model weather, climate change, energy usage, the effects of atomic war, modeling galactic collisions, CERN uses super computers to measure the experiment conducted in the Large Hadro Collider.
We typicaly see lots of charts & talking heads yet there has been no discussion whatsoever on economic models run on Super Computers.We are trying to guess what is coming so why?
valhala56 2 years ago
Goldman Sachs only exploits the known quantitative limitations of the technology used to conduct commerce in financial markets. It has no predictive value for overall economic trends at all.
sharazel 2 years ago
No, but by exploiting those limitations, aren't they essentially manipulating the market...
I don't know anything about the stock market so I could be way off, but it just seems to be, if you can take advantage of anything by exploiting the volume, that becomes a form or manipulation...
BlacksAreBeautiful 2 years ago
Sure, they're manipulating it, and making money in the process, crooked bastards that they are. But this has no real application to what this video proposes.
sharazel 2 years ago
It's most likely already been done, by the people that created the the crisis. That way they would know the what the outcome would be. Just like in chess. Think moves ahead! They don't want anybody else to do it. Right!
HowthehellRUdoin 2 years ago
That's pretty much what most of the comments I got say. They "Gov/bankers/Corporations/military-industrial" are the wizard in the "Wizard of Oz."
valhala56 2 years ago
This economy is very predictable! You would not need a super computer to predict the out come ! This is Problem Reaction Solution ! This recession was created by design! Now they (gov) will sell us the Solution at the cost of civil liberties They know how to fix it.... They don't want to fix it.... Not until we give up more of our rights
TheManSand322 2 years ago
I pretty much agree with you. If some independent Super Computer similations run then that would be exposed!
Now people are just stunned/numbed and confused. They are told there green shoots, this is just a recession. Pundits on tv giving their opinions some of which defy logic.
It would be great if a Simulation would show how the current Bank Bailouts would lead too not to mention adding in Cap N Trade into the model.
valhala56 2 years ago
I like your idea - use the simulation to expose the wasteful corruption
TheManSand322 2 years ago
That's pretty much it. If they can spend Trillions of dollars in Goverment money, then we the taxpayers have right to see how all this could turn out.
We have spent $billions for weather forcasting, Global warming studies, War games on Super Computers.
Where is the simulations for the Economic meltdown?
We have technolgy, like you said, they already did and are keeping the plan to themselves.
valhala56 2 years ago
For a super computer to work you would have to punch in the true and honest numers....that is where the problem lyes (or should I say lies).
aybesee123 2 years ago
Yep you got that right friend. They "Gov. & the major players" live & tell so many lies.
I wouldn't trust anything coming from the Goverment or the media anyway.
I would like to see Simulation runs coming from Universites all over the world and then the pundits talking about the models, how the predictions are different, similar etc.
But your right friend, nobody trusts Wall Street, the stock market anything anymore.
They have lost all credibility.
valhala56 2 years ago
thezog, your not exactly right there. They have done computer models of traffic patterns, ie cars with indivuals driving them, crowd patterns in stadiums and they the simulations do make accurate predictions on what these indivuals in the crowds do.
They do the same thing with advertising, data mining, Psychological profiles of consumers.
Maybe not 100% accurate but in the high nineties. They wouldn't do these forecasts if they were useless.
valhala56 2 years ago
@valhala56 Read Nassim Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" and "Black Swan" Sometimes we just don't know.
thezoj 1 year ago
@thezoj First of all, it's just a model. Just like all the charts, graphs and stastics economist use. Just a tool. Second you can program in random events or even better game it with actual humans and study that.
valhala56 1 year ago
Impossible...you cannot predict what markets will do. Why? Well, you cannot know what decision an individual will make. Let alone a crowd. Why overcomplicate things anyways? The problem is very simple.
SNL Figured it out
"Don't Buy Stuff You Can't Afford!"
You want to fix the problem and have an economy that will actually last?
Ban Leverage!!!
Want to make more money? Quit being lazy and increase efficiency.
thezoj 2 years ago 3
You have a simple prescription, don't buy stuff you can't afford and ban leverage. Ok, run simulation on that model and then see if that does a better job then bailout bubbles?
My concern is that some people think we are sinking into a Global Depression.
If that is the case it seems to me that you would want to use your very best tools to aid in the decsion makeing process.
Charts and economic experts are not enough.
If it was such a waste of time why is the Pentagon using HPC's?
valhala56 2 years ago
Is it that complicated? Owe trillions of dollars, print trillions of dollars, end of currency. Always happens, oh, almost forgot, then massive war.
BLynchCAN 2 years ago 2
Nope not that complicated. Man is his own worst enemy.
This all explains why the Galaxy is so devoid of intelligent life. When they get to the point in there civilization where we are, they can either overcome their planetary crisis or collapse their civilizations.
valhala56 2 years ago
The problem today is like physics, you are trying to look for loopholes in the fundemental nature of economics. There's only so much wealth in the world in the form of the three industries, the only way you can generate wealth is to get it from those industries, there's no loophole that allows you to get wealth without having to do anything.
The supercomputer will tell you: A) suck it up and accept lower living standards and B) go back to work.
dagnemrth 2 years ago 2
Yep, no magic bullet.
That is why many people have suggested to me that the Goverment has run super computer projections and they are so bad they ain't talking about it.
valhala56 2 years ago
Back to the crux of the problem. Central planners (with computers of any power) can't orchestrate the economy. The economy needs to compute itself at every node. Every economic actor needs to be free to choose it best action, it's fallacy to think the economic actor can be directed from above, from some central authority. The FED in its history, over its history, has failed to, and is, by true economics, incapable of performing its mandate. That's "our" point -- not that computers are no good.
carlosjhr64 2 years ago
To venture into a slightly different direction some people for example Ray Kurzweil propose that we are on the cusp of what is called the Technological Singularity.
When this leap of artifical intelligence occurs the intelluctal capacity of machine intelligence would leap at such a rate that it could bypass the best in Human computation exponentality. ie as big a difference as we are to our pets for instance.
This type of "machine" central planning could rewrite economic theory entirely.
valhala56 2 years ago
Dude! How is this machine going to know if you wake up to drink coffee or tea? It's your choice, and by chaos, significant.
carlosjhr64 2 years ago
Kurzweil is coming out with his Singularity movie this fall. He is now saying his guess when machine intelligence outpace's human intelligence is in the 2030-50 time frame.
So yes, your machine slave will be clueless on your choice of morning beverage for probaly at least another 20 years.
To my orignal point, the Singularity would solve this economic crisis, it's just not going to be in time to do it.
The confluence of Peak Oil & economic collapse will not be solved by humans, its too big
valhala56 2 years ago
I think what you are discussing has been done! I rember Gordon Brown doing an interview. He mentioned the had run the simulations and models
carmenlee87 2 years ago
Thanks for the heads up on Gordon Brown. I'll check it out. It seems to me with a problem this big this serious they would use every tool available.
Typically all one sees are charts and pundits which is great.
They spend $100 million dollars developing the video game Grand Theft Auto lV.
It occurs to me that on Global economic collapse they could spend a similar amount to come up with other solutions to this problem.
valhala56 2 years ago
I also want to note that in WW2 it was a primitive computer that cracked the Nazi Enigma machine and was used for artillery calulations.
So if some 65 years ago they could use very primitive computers for THE crisis of their time we could do the same.
valhala56 2 years ago
Remember the other half, software. Chess playing software are actually simple tree searches. If you've never written a computer program, just write one of the simplest examples "Hello World" using whatever language - may I suggest Ruby. Then think about writing the economic simulator. There's the crux. BTW, there are economic simulators, the FED uses them... FAIL! LOL
carlosjhr64 2 years ago
Carlos, your probaly right. Maybe I give computers more credit then they deserve. My question to you though is we have seen all the hockey stick charts, the pundits, Schiff, Roubinin, Faber, Soros, make the prognosis like economic Physcians. The Pt is terminal.
You said the Fed uses Simulators, how do they compare say to what the models at MIT or Standford? Are the conclusions similar?
I haven't seen any SuperComputer model talked about in the media.
I mostly agree with you though.
valhala56 2 years ago
I'm not an expert in this, so I'll just try to send you the right way. Try Wikipedia's Agent-Based Computational Economics.
But remember that chaos makes all errors significant!
Plug into some working model the bogus fraudulent real state mortgages and you get a rosy prosperous outlook that duped the FED, instead of the crash. What for a distributed free market banking would have been a few bankruptcies from bad banks, takes down the entire centralized financial system instead.
carlosjhr64 2 years ago
I think you said you were an equities trader?
At any rate all humans set up mental simulations in their minds trying to guess what is going to happen in the future. I'm not a trader but it seems to me that is your game, You try to predict what stocks are going to make money. Now if your simulation is good and or lucky you make money.
I bet if you had in your possesion a Super Computer you would probaly use it in your stock picking.
valhala56 2 years ago
I said I am a stock trader. Any bozo with money can open an account and start trading!
LOL :))
And I do use computer modeling to do my picks, and, yes, I could use a faster computer.
I just don't have a Phd in this stuff.
carlosjhr64 2 years ago
Your right though Carlos the Mathematicians that create the Algorithms for the Derivatives beast and the MBS's that got out of controll did this using such Computational Economics. Their Flaw was that the Algorithms were only modeled on the premis of makeing profits, not on the economy as whole. These people using Set Theory are very specialized & tend not to see the bigger picture.
Yeah they created monsters with their exotic financial products that are not being corrected now just made worse
valhala56 2 years ago
INTERESTING!
sikovit 2 years ago
Valhala56 - (2) What I want to know is how were the Europeans so easily fooled into buying American junk. When all they had to do was use the internet and they could have read many articles discussing this real-estate time bomb. And why are the citizens of Europe not upset about this. You rarely see anyone posting videos from countries that are in worse shape than we are here in the USA. I guess they are cool with being jacked?
ShakeitUp09 2 years ago
I saw some show talking about a small town in Norway investing in this junk. They had invested city funds into it because they were mislead by the salesman touting the rating agencies ie Moodys as saying this with AAA stuff.
Your right, they admitted they did not check it out and belived the Salesman.
I bought a car the same way. I learned a lesson too. LOL
valhala56 2 years ago
Valhala56 - (1) Part of the reason why we are in this mess is due to the mathematical formulas used with super computers to calculate the risk in CDOs and Credit Default Swaps. This is the core reason why ALL of the unregulated investment banks ended up failing. Putting your faith in financial modeling is the wrong solution when the banks and AIG committed outright fraud and remain unpunished.
ShakeitUp09 2 years ago
I think that avenue hasn't been looked into because that doesn't consern those who are in power. They don't care about the people, they only care about controle and more for them and less for everyone else. What is happening for the banks with the "stimulus" is how they make more money and take it away from the population. People are expendable!
rad4life1 3 years ago
Well one of my hopes with this vid is that somone with access to a HPC supercomputer, will run some economic forcasts and different models to put up against the Goverment Plans and the prescriptions the so called experts say that are needed in this situation.
I agree with you that they don't care about the people, witness tent cities springing up here in there.
valhala56 3 years ago
good point, very good point.
rad4life1 3 years ago
Part of the problem is this: First of all, the entire mess of neo-liberal market policy started with mathematical attempts to model human behaviors which went against the grain of everything that sociology, history, political science, and other social sciences had to tell us. Second of all, everyone already knows what will work. Fair taxation works. Maintaining, when necessary, a degree of national economi self-reliance works, careful regulation of our involvement in trade works
deadpool03mm 3 years ago
and while this line of thought is treason to free market thought, protectionism works. However, nobody, largely including many members of the democratic party, seem to be willing to cease in their attempts to ice-skate up-hill at present. No super-computer required. People have money, they will spend money. However, if you gradually reduce the average consumer's real income for about 30 years, eventually, too many people are forced to survive on credit.
deadpool03mm 3 years ago
I agree with most of what you just said. Just a note, I just bought a pair of shoes from what I thought was American company Converse. I thought wow, great shoes from an American company at a great price. Looked inside the shoe-said made in China :(
When I was 16 years old I worked a Summer job in Shoe factory in Georgia.
I guess America doesn't see the need to make their own shoes anymore, just get em cheap from China.
valhala56 3 years ago
Very true. A lot of problems across the board right now can be tied back to the "Just build it in the 3rd world" attitude. A lot of kids used to pay for college cash upfront by working the summers away at factories. Now, not only can you not do that anymore, which diminishes the incentive to even go to begin with due to all the good work being in India at present, even in the case of people who once thought themselves too smart to be outsourced like Engineers and Accountants,
deadpool03mm 3 years ago
but it also basically means that college grads are busy paying student loan debts off ( or not paying student loan debts off) to settle down, buy a starter home, get married, have kids buy a car, etc. This is partially why we're rapidly dipping below the rest of the West in terms of average education level and also why our population and economies are shrinking. But, as you pointed out, it's a widespread systemic problem that we've got on our hands, and we should use every resource available.
deadpool03mm 3 years ago
I'm saying my generation has screwed over your Generation with our "Middle aged people" need for McMansions, Lexus, BIG 401K, Real estate investment, buying two wars and letting you guys pay for it, Not investing in renewable energy and buying GIANT, SUV's and wasting all the future OIL on our trips to Vegas at your expense.
If I were you friend I would start asking for justice. I have said this to other middle age people and they laugh at me.
What me screw over the next gen? Ha?
valhala56 3 years ago
That's very big of you to say, and I appreciate your sense of responsibility, but people my age are a long way from guiltless in this mess. My parents are highly educated people, and I was raised in a GM shop town in Michigan. The one thing that was always hammered into my head by my parents and teachers, even as a kid was "go to college, because the factories are going to Mexico, and you don't want to get stuck without a job." Well, that's great, BUT:
deadpool03mm 3 years ago
The elitist bullshit, the every man for himself attitude, and the acceptance of the status quo is built right into that crap, and I, like many others from the young generation, bought right into it. Some of the kids I grew up with were frankly blue collar Joes who would readily tell you that college wasn't for them. However, many of them are close as my own brother, so does that mean I should just say "I've got mine, fuck you suckers that I grew up with" like so many others actually do?
deadpool03mm 3 years ago
But, sad to say, this is the prevailing attitute in many instances. Also, frankly, I think that the bulk of people in my general age group are terribly uninformed about just about everything excluding possibly sports and entertainment, and I also generally believe that far too many of the young and educated in particular have been supportive of current policy even when they are the ones ultimately damaged by it in the long-run.
deadpool03mm 3 years ago
I agree, it was self greed by everybody involved.
When you have a system that is built on only self interest from the top to the bottom and the system encourages this mentality then people will do the wrong thing. They will make Unqualified mortages, they will sell securities they well know are worthless as long as they get their commision and up and down the ladder it goes.
My generation was warned about coming shortage, we didn't care as long as I can fill my SUV for $20 bucks.
valhala56 3 years ago
In my mind people should admitt it was wrong to start wars and doing it on the installment plan. let future generations pay for our Jingoism. People who tried to voice dissent against the war muzzeled, Dixie Chicks and Sean Penn come to mind.
Labeled as Unpatriotic and Traitors.
Now the very people who call these people traitors are boohooing about the finacial mess that they did nothing about, even thought it was great idea, wars, financial derivatives, rapeing the earth for Oil & Gold.
valhala56 3 years ago
The generation that screwed this up, my generation need a good bitch slapping in my view.
valhala56 3 years ago
I agree, I heard in another video on Youttube the possibility that the accuasation that Obama was not experienced enough resulted in the mistake of picking what he though were experience advisers, i.e. Geithner people who are entrenched in the system and will continue the same diastrous path.
Again, that is why I think relying on people to make the critical decsions can be flawed and that we you use economic models on Super computers to look at the best outcomes. There may be a little time left
valhala56 3 years ago
I like obama's idea of a civil defense corp. It's the opposing force necessary to counter the state's forces which we all know have mostly been compromised by corporate power. That might be the opening that we all need for civil unrest and maybe something even bigger...
joesub007 3 years ago
Why for example was it necessary to make work into simple repetitive steps in an assembly line so that even a moron can do it? Farming involves lots of muscle, but not much brains. Ever seen a dog lift his leg to mark territory? Now you know why there is a similar way of marking your territory with "libertarian" free marketers. Enough is simply not enough for the people at the top that's marking their territory on everything and is running the world right now.
joesub007 3 years ago
We are talking about the "Bush Goverment" they were a pretty slow on the uptake bunch.
But beyond that, I just saw on CNN today some NGO Scientist located Bin Laden with a super computer and told the Feds where the most probale places he is. No reacation.
valhala56 3 years ago
valhala56. You cannot model culture in a supercomputer. American culture much like much of global culture grown up from an agrarian culture of rape, slavery, stupidity and laziness. Most people who are rich and powerful are heirs to empire builders inherited from the agrarian patriarchs of the past. Most people who are technically smart are also territorial and selfish and won't solve any problem without huge payoffs and ownership rights. Why is this? Historical development of the world.
joesub007 3 years ago
I don't know Joe, Grand Theft Auto lV did a pretty good job of modeling American culture. $100 million cost to produce, sold $500 million in the first week.
Liberty City replicates the nerve center of capitalism & commerce with trade in narcotics, contract jobs, International relations, the auto industry in all types of vehichles one can use to attain more wealth and influence on others in the simulation.I don't know if GTAlV would make a better world but you can it off if you choose, LOL.
valhala56 3 years ago
Ron Paul is a deluded ass. What I'm trying to get at goes right to biology and human development and not simply politics. Ever encounter people that are so hostile and dominant that they absolutely won't listen to any advice or admit errors. Advice is seen as a threat to authority and not help. Alpha apes like this exist everywhere in the world especially in the upper echelons of society and usually they are of what gender? Alphamen have less to lose and lots to gain for being wild and selfish.
joesub007 3 years ago
Some people are saying that collapse will bring people closer. People will form closer bonds to help each other. I am of the Wild Ape Travis school who recently Connecticut ripped the face off the owners best friend resulting in Travis owner sticking a knife in him with police haveing to put Travis down with the old 357 Magnumn.
So in essence I am of the Mad Max School of human devolution, I hope I am wrong.
valhala56 3 years ago
Found this:
watch?v=Bj_OGw2nXSw
Apparently she slept with "him". LOL! Sort of confirms my theory that women would prefer chimps than wimps.
So all you gentlemen out there. Stop acting like a wussie and act like a knuckle dragging chimp.
joesub007 3 years ago
Cognitive dissonance is largely the explination for said behavior. If a deeply held belief fails in practice, it's followers often knuckle down and redouble their efforts despite evidence to the contrary of said beliefs. Same behavior was evident in late-Soviet policy. It was also this strain of ideological inflexibility, not incomparible to free-market economics, an idea that sounds good on paper but has failed world-wide, particularly in extreme cases, that contributed to Soviet downfall.
deadpool03mm 3 years ago
I agree Cognitive dissonance plays a big part in it.
I thought though if this crisis is as serious as everybody says then we would employ every tool we have to come up with solutions.
Yes we have some smart economists, but they only think in terms of their speacialty and indivuals no matter how bright can't see the whole picture, groups of experts I think are even worse.
We need to model simulations and look at likely probalities of success.
Some say it has been done but they are not tal
valhala56 3 years ago
Get rid of the Federal Reserves!!!!!!!!!!!
Ron Paul 2012!
The rEVOLution continues!!!!
MsticalPrincess 3 years ago
I betcha if they let the people of the US decide they Fed would be gone in a heartbeat, once it is explained who the Federal Reserve is.
valhala56 3 years ago
valhala..exactly. I had NO idea until recently (after reading Dr Paul's book The Revolution) and I almost had a heart attack!!! Now I want them gone...PRONTO!!!
MsticalPrincess 3 years ago
I too have woke up from my lifetime stupor and become aware of the Wizard of Oz that I thought was a fantasy of my childhood was true. More and more people are realizing this.
valhala56 3 years ago
valhala...THAT is the scary part...that we are all starting to wake up. Scary good..though.
MsticalPrincess 3 years ago
A computer regardless of it speed is only as good as the program running on it. Different economic models will produce different outcomes. With the physical sciences there are quantifiable and qualifiable laws. If I drop a ball I not only know it will fall but fast how long etcetera. If I were to give someone a million dollars who knows what they will do?
BTW the computer you jave on your desk was a supercomputer 30 years ago.
cosmosgato 3 years ago
Again, I am not saying that we take orders from Super Computer. I am saying we have this analytical tool available, we used it in the past in Atomic reseach, weather forcasting, Oceanography, Astophysics, using it now at CERN on the Large Hadron Collider.
It seems silly to me not to use a tool that is available because it is modeling a virtual economy.
We would only use this to make odds on probability, what is most likey to happen. The human would make the final Decisions.
valhala56 3 years ago
Again whose model would you use?
It is transfer of the question.
Rather than argue over the yes or no we would be arguing over the democrat model or the republican model. All your examples are from hard science. Economics is not. It is like having a computer determine the winner of the Bud light debate. Is it less filling or better tasting?
It all would depend on who wrote the program
cosmosgato 3 years ago
My reply to you is that whether your Republican or Dem if you just rely on who is makeing the Decision & hope they are lucky & right. This is the fate of the world, & it seems to me that you would want to use every analytical tool available to increase the odds of solving something more complex then less filling or better taste.
But hey, I'm to the point where fuck it. The so called experts have so totaly screwed it up & most of you can accept their ineptness rather then try something different
valhala56 3 years ago
I would also like to add on your anology on dropping a ball, that is only probability, in the sense that one there is a 1 to (1000) that a ball may dissapear according to Quantum Mechanics.
Very unlikey probality but it is there. If your using Newtonian gravity then you can put that in your quantifiable calculation for reality.
Super Computer can't tell you what will happen, it will tell you what the probality or odds of something happening are.
We do want better odds for success don't we?
valhala56 3 years ago
Valhalla,
I think several supercomputer models of possible outcomes would be helpful....however, supercomputers can not model "Irrational Behavior". Actually, Kasparov in movie "Game Over" claims IBM intervened during match with human chess players...and IBM never allowed a rematch after victory (stock rose 15% after victory).
In order for a computer program to play irrationally, it would have to irrational risks. The market is choke full of irrational risks...providing a complexity!
UnderseaCaveman 3 years ago
That could be factored in similar to a Airline military flight simulator where mechanical failures are thrown in then there would be a response by the operator.
A machine could handle a lot more unkowns then even the best human minds could up with. As I said I don't nessacarily say we should take orders from a machine, just use it as we use any analytical tool.
All we have now is the best guess's of so called experts and talking heads.
If we can use a HPC on the LHC why not for this?
valhala56 3 years ago
ok, good for training human responses (eg, flight sim).
good copy, would be helpful as an analytical tool.
In which case, I would like to predict that it says: "Dissolve Federal Power to a minimum, you can't control this problem....let it all be hashed at state and local levels..... you let the Corporations take over the FED GOV thru Congress"....
hahahaa...
I am guessing that answer will not be allowed!
UnderseaCaveman 3 years ago
That is my guess too. I think they already run the simulation and they don't like the results, ie abolish the Fed. Let the banks go under ect. So they aren't talking about that they are using every asset at their disposal. We all know the NSA has got HPC's. Probaly already run the simulation.
valhala56 3 years ago
There is no need to simulate... This baby is going down. Obama is going to install 1000 more printing presses to keep up the supply. Why dont they listen to the guys that have been right since 2001? Peter Schiff and Ron Paul? Because they dont care to know the truth.. They dont care about us or the dollar.. This is it folks.. Its history in the making.. The revolution is going to be so beautiful.. I cant wait! It needs to be peaceful!
V for Vdubs
vdubs4life1964 3 years ago
Yeah they don't need to simulate, but I want more then so called experts telling me what the answer is. Look they did 1000 polls a week during the election trying to guess the outcome of the election. There are few polls on the economic situation. Just different talking heads giving their best guess's.
I want no bia's Computer scientist's running a global economic model with all the data we have, I explained in the video computers have more power computation then humans, DAMN IT USE IT!
valhala56 3 years ago
Dont get me wrong.. You have a great idea. I would love to see what it spits out. Like the game The Sims, only more focused on monetary policy and corruption. Maybe they should come out with The Sims The Revolution.. lol
vdubs4life1964 3 years ago
I'm wondering the same thing, during the election CNN was playing around with Star Trek like Holgraphic telepresense and using a Microsoft large touch screen, for moving data around with the touch of the finger.
It seems curious to me that a problem of this magnitude is left to a few politcos to decide a course of action that could make the situation worse.
Why not use all the analytical tools we have at our disposal? Or has it already been done & they are keeping the results to themselves.
valhala56 3 years ago
excellent point, I suspect they know that, however, they do not want to solve the crisis that was created to usher in new policies, oppressive laws and likely a new currency after the total transfer of wealth is complete.
TARP = Total Ass Raping (of the) Public.
cv1122 3 years ago 3
Some great points made in the video but I agree with cv1122.
They are in the process of a wholesale transfer of wealth... they have no intention of fixing it because this is playing out the way it was planned.
(You know who I mean when I refer to "THEY")
lokir 3 years ago
In this video I am not saying that we should do whatever a Super Computer simulation concludes. What I am saying is that nobody is talking about it. Nobody with a Super Computer is working on the most serious problem of our time. If we are to just rely on politics to work this out then it is no better then gambling.
We need to have Simulations or Models run in various Universities see what the conclusions are of these Economic forcasts and have a better grasp at what we are dealing with.
valhala56 3 years ago
I agree with you in that it could 'possibly' find a solution.
I can't speck for cv1122, but the point that I am making is that "they" don't want the problem fixed. Otherwise, this sort of strategy would be employed to address the problem.
lokir 3 years ago
They already have and have not told us. THEY are setting up exactly what THEY want and doing it as their computer models indicate. Yet, all our advanced super-computing has yet to predict the weather a week in advance accurately. The fundamental chaos of NATURE has not been tamed, control is an illusion. THEY will fall.
lordchaos1111 3 years ago 3
My suspicion is that they have too, they haven't talked about it because they don't like the prognosis, ie let the banks fail. That kind of thing. I don't know.
Predicting something as complex as weather for a week is still quite a feat.
They invested $100 million dollars in the develepment of a game Grand Theft Auto 4 simulating a world, I want to know why they can't do the same with all the economic data we have?
Lets just stop the wishfull thinking and get real hard data!
valhala56 3 years ago
Yeah I wondered the same thing, why hasn't this been talked about before? Why haven't they run simulations?
Betterhalf2557 3 years ago
Right, This isn't 1933. They didn't have computer much less Super Computers to make Economic forecasts with better reliability. Think of it like this the tools that Weather forcasters have now are light years better then the weather forcaster of the early 20 th century.
If FDR had the technology the we have now the outcome would probaly have been different.
I would just like to know why isn't anybody doing global economic simulations?
valhala56 3 years ago