Where Is the Chinese Economy Headed, and What Does It Mean for the US?

[DiggingNorway]

cyclical growth is great!! It gives investment oppurtunity...

[CytherLynx]

Ahem

Since 2000 the depletion of China's main aquifers has led to an overall decrease in grain production, turning China into a net importer. The trend of Chinese dependence on imported food is expected to accelerate as the water shortage worsens.

[bxccapricorn]

go china they r nobodies bittcchhhh unlike every other country is

[omega4chimp]

Theirs like major inflation in china or somthing i heard is that true?

[silverpizza100]

dude what is on your forehead? Who would hire you with thore growths on your face? You are blind as a bat. Look at thoes coke bottle glasses. This guy got his ass kicked a lot in school I bet...Fuck this nred. Lets beat his ass! Crook!

[Consumerofknowledge]

China can go away. But the chinese people have a communist government so that won't happen. They want a chunk of the pie, make you own, china. Leave America alone, we are already screwed enough as it is.

[1UFAkEfe684]

@Consumerofknowledge thats what happen when u point fingers because a billion more fingers will point at u....hahhaahhaahahaha....stupi­d nerd bitch

[lovingcaptain23]

@Ferior china will be super power in 2020 what so ever the world says its the truth china will be super power in 2020 love china

[uluvmyballs]

@lovingcaptain23 are you daft? the chinese economy is NOWWHERE near the size of the US. Also the US has a far superior military.

[omega4chimp]

@lovingcaptain23 You think USA is not stronger the china?

[estorpai]

jealous of china again?The west should rather start working hard rather than spend time criticising why china is gaining influence in their back yard.Venezuela,bolivia,nicarag­ua and many more trade now with china and Iran rather than USA.Good for Africa,cos u must now compete for our resources.Good riddance exploiter

[wingchunbingfa]

responding to your statement. i believe your oversize nation sooner or later will be separated into parts due to many reasons. the most considerable reasons are the weird value that you uphold; looking at your own goverment - you think you can trust by the whole? look at what your gov have done to your own people.... I believe if the rest 700 millions people had gun now they would turn down the government .

[estorpai]

Your are misled by your Hannity and Oreily media.Get the facts and forget ideologies.China owns USA and its influence in the world has skyrocketed and will keep on flying high.Get to work and forget your wishful thinking

[cabraden1]

You dumb fuck.  Did you know that a full one-third of Chinese industry is US OWNED? That's a fact, Jack. You think the one trillion in US debt that China owns

is that big of a deal? The US GDP is about 15,000,000,000,000 dollars. Chinese

debt is equal to less than one month of US GDP.

[uluvmyballs]

@cabraden1 Exactly. People are so ignorant when they underestimate the US. Also if there was a war all debt to china would be void.

[chinaownsusa]

@wingchunbingfa you provided nothing factual, only political blather. how about your government's overt and covert meddling in other countries?

[wingchunbingfa]

Let's see how China grows, i would love to live up to 103 years and see you far you can travel up. Believe me, everyone - they will grow like a balloon but can blows any time.

[kisameitachiakatsuki]

Nothing last for ever the US was thee richest like in the 80s 90s until 2004

the roman empire fell so is the US

[JohnR22926]

Ferior: Democracy is a relatively new idea; it's only about 300 years old.

Of course there was much human progress made before democracy was invented. However, the world today is incredibly complex; technology, economic markets, etc

When you look at each nation's situation in 1800 and then again in 1900 and 2000 it's quite clear that the democracies far surpassed all other systems

So...I'll stick with democracy and free markets...until some nations PROVES they have a better alternative

[huayunbaidu]

China will suffer really bad but trust me, China will never feel the pain Amerikkka is feeling right now. 25 million unemployeement? is that a joke, do you actually know what is the total number of China's working force???25 mill is a small factor of the work force.

[shinytooth23]

@huayunbaidu Why the KKK in your spelling of America?

[soccom8341576]

US? Care about yourself.

On the issue of the Chinese internet, I think when people see that as a major obstacle to their well-being, they will respond, usually collectively.

The bottom line is that China is living within its means, while the US is living way beyond its means. US will have to go down a little.

Capitalism doesn't need to be learnt. It's what comes naturally. Of course, people do forget about it.

Chinese people are not a threat, but its growing government is to everyone.

[JohnR22926]

chnia: US GDP growth is not due to inflation which is usually 1-2%, or during recession as high as 4-5%.

Democracies allow a completely free flow of information, including technology and capital. Non-democratic countries do not. China for example, doesn't even allow full access to the internet to its citizens.

China's growth will stop at some point as long as the non-democratic government uses police-state methods to control free speech and a COMPLETELY free flow of information.

[JohnR22926]

chinia: Read my post to 66Q. I know all about China's history. But in all your 2,000 years you have NEVER operated a modern market economy. This is ALL the US has ever done; it's what we're best at. Understand? Today, China is best at accupuncture...we are best at capitalism. You have much to learn from us in this area.

Modern capitalist economies have always run deficit spending. Ours is historically about 4% of GDP which is OK...as long as GDP grows at more than 4%. We'll be just fine.

[66QQ66]

modern market economy... wonderful. YOu are big fun of Greenspan and Chicago school of neoclassic economics. But the reality is, you are dying. You are eating your words. I don't want to enlighten you about the size of Chinese economy before 1840. Just point out one fact, the fatal disease of capitalism is that it has to expand. Now, it is facing the globalization it created, in other words, it reaches its limit. I hope you can live long enough to witness I am right. End of the conversation.

[JohnR22926]

66q: more nonsense. Europeans have been predicting the "end" of America since the 1800s.

And your comments about "captialism must expand" are absurd. Additional "wealth" is not created only through expansion, but also through productivity increases (driven by technology).

If I lived to be 200 I would not see the end of American power. But remember my words; if China does not democratize, their economic growth will soon founder.

Now the conversation is ended.

[sianghan]

"we are best at capitalism"

In light of what's happening in the US, you still call yourself capitalist? Do they not publish the bailouts in American news? You're right about the learning though. Chinese have learnt to avoid American financial garbage.

"Modern capitalist economies have always run deficit spending"

13 trillion dollars government debt, 53 trillion dollars total government liabilities. Good luck paying that off, "Modern capitalist economy" lol.

[JohnR22926]

siang: lol. You look at the last two years of our history and ignore the previous 200 years.

What we're going through now is ALL attributable to a single cause...the excessive lending (mortgages) to people who were bad risks. This was done for a combination of reasons, including excessive govt meddling (govt pressure on banks to loan money to minorities and other poor people who couldn't pay it back).

The Chinese are like arrogant children who think they're smarter than their parents.

[sianghan]

Looking at the situation today, I would argue that the Chinese are geniuses.

In 200 years, the American government accumulated 5 trillion dollars of debt, in the past 6 months, the number has increased to 13 trillion. So yes, I do look at the last 2 years, because it looks like Rome is being sacked.

[JohnR22926]

siang: I've got a BA in Business Administration and an MBA and I can assure you the current economic situation (which effects europe and russia more than the US) is nothing we won't recover from.

The national debt is about $10 trillion, but you keep forgetting the US' annual GDP is about $13.8 trillion and the annual taxes collected are about $2.1 trillion. As long as we maintain GDP growth and if we can cut government spending, we can easily get the national debt down.

[sianghan]

Those are pretty big "ifs". For starters, Obama doesn't look like he's cutting government spending, but rather he is increasing it. The budget deficit is expected to exceed 1 trillion next year! Not to mention his recent stimulus plan estimated at another 700billion dollars, 2 wars, a collapsing economy, exploding government debt, and nobody has even mentioned social security and medicare. (Maybe the numbers are too scary)

America's only hope was Ron Paul, but it was never gonna happen.

[JohnR22926]

siang: Standard procedure when in a recession is to cut taxes (or at least avoid raising them) and to increase govt spending to stimulate the economy.

To increase spending without raising taxes, govt has only two choices:

1. Borrow the money, increasing the national debt.

2. Simply print more money which increases inflation.

Both bad choices. IMO Obama will borrow the money and the national debt will increase to $15 trillion by 2012. Once the recession is over, Obama MUST cut spending.

[sianghan]

That's assuming the recession is a short-lived one. What happens if you have 2,3 even 5 years of stagnant growth? Don't forget American households save on average 2% of their income, so any borrowed money has to come from foreigners. How much longer will foreigners continue to finance US deficits? The US doesn't have any trouble selling bonds now due to forced liquidation in the markets, when this is over, who is going to buy US bonds? Arabs? Chinese? They have their own problems too.

[JohnR22926]

siang: And don't get too excited about China. THey're doing very well, but so did the USSR from about 1917-1930. China has only had free markets for about 20 years...it's irresponsible to be making such grandiose claims after such a short period of time.

China faces many challenges and the key is if they can institute "rule of law" and democracy. If they can't, their economic growth will stop far short of the US/Germany/Japan.

[sianghan]

I've been hearing "China is gonna blow up" since the 90's (Granted anything can happen in this world). As for the comparison with  USSR, that is a total joke. For one, China is communist in name, capitalist in practice (even more so than the US today). China learnt its lesson from Mao's disastrous years in the 70's.

Since when was democracy a pre-requisite for economic success? I argue that China has an advantage over India because it is NOT democratic. You should have a look yourself.

[JohnR22926]

siang: 30 years ago China was one of the poorest nations on earth. So...to a certain extent, their remarkable progress so far has been the easy part. Any basic market economy reforms would have produced dramatic results given their very low starting point.

But just think. China doesn't even allow open use of the internet. They'll never be able to compete with the West at the "high end" of the economy unless they democratize. And that's the hard part; market reforms are easy.

[sianghan]

I disagree that their progress so far was easy and expected, but rather it was a miracle due to good reforms and a competent government. India, eastern Europe, and many countries in Africa started at the same base, but none of them have been able to replicate China. Their unique government is the difference.

I doubt their lack of freedoms will hinder their competitiveness in the value-added end of the economy. Technology is the key in those areas. Without doubt the West has an edge ATM.

[JohnR22926]

siang: China has huge cultural advantages over he 3rd world:

-Work ethic; chinese are, and always have been, hard workers.

-a govt effective (so far) at weeding out corruption. 3rd world nations are plagued by corruption...regardless of the political system.

-Huge population and vast natural resources.

-As I said, they started at a very low point and therefore can pay a tiny fraction of western wages.

Your wrong about free flow of info though. Internet is useless if you restrict use.

[mathpianist93]

@JohnR22926: imperialist imperialist imperialist. show us Chinese that your system is the best FOR US. the world has, does, and will continue to dislike this 'our system will work with you' attitude

[seppukuhierarchy]

The Chinese are like arrogant children who think they're smarter than their parents? How ironic of you to say such an arrogant, and ignorant, thing.

[JohnR22926]

seppu: OK. My comment was ott and I retract it. I actually admire China's economic accomplishments and generally like the Chinese people.

What I can't abide though, are those (mostly white americans) who think China has developed a system that represents the future. A repressive totalitarian political system combined with a market economy.

I still maintain China's dramatic economic growth is finite and will hit a ceiling...unless they can democratize.

[soccom8341576]

Democracy....

I guess as long as China does not become as large a taxer and spender as the US government, then as far as an economy is concerned, it is not likely to be a big problem. However, corruption is just disgusting there, so that must be fixed. The Chinese, as they learn about how their lives can be improve and who are the obstacles to it, will change that.

The Chinese are quite cautious, at least historically. They save their money, stick together as families and boil their water.

[JohnR22926]

socom: I agree. The key to China reaching the next level is to establish Rule of Law which means an independent court system and checks & balances (like a free media that performs a watchdog function).

No nation has yet effectively transitioned from communism to democracy, but I think China is doing as well as can be expected and I wish them luck.

[arst29]

You are a retard. Did some chinese guy bone your gf?

[seppukuhierarchy]

Learn to read, retard.

[JohnR22926]

IMO China's explosive economic growth is due to the fact that their starting point was so low, and because they've adopted a true market economy. They're making great progress, but so did the USSR in the early years of centralized govt industrialization.

The USSR hit a glass celiing and so will China. Unless they can democratize and allow a truly free flow of ideas, information, and capital. They don't even allow unrestricted internet access, cell phone usage, etc.

[1942tj]

Actually the contemporary chinese economical growth is very different from that of the USSR. For one China is no longer has a centralized economy. Its combination of strong Political hold, Technocratic leaders,and its own kind of controlled capitalism I think is one of the main reason for its boom. To take the world as an example democracy is not tied to economic growth. Of all the rather NIC's non are democratic in the american standard.

[JohnR22926]

1942: good points. I agree.

My primary point was that the USSR had explosive early growth because they had such a low starting point and because their totalitarian system enabled them to use inexpensive mass labor for industrialization.

I realize China is quite different and am sure they'll move far beyond the USSR's peak economic performance. But...I still maintain they will not match Western (US/EU) standards/performance until/unless they democratize.

[gbm322]

Being a poor (cheap labor) dictatorship is no panacae for rapid industrialization and wealth creation. Many authoritarian countries have very cheap labor, they are not booming. China has developed and reduced poverty so rapidly by sound fiscal and monetary policies, remarkable openness to trade and investment and strong focus on pragmatism as opposed to ideology. The chinese culture which very strongly emphasize education, hard work, entrepreneurship, discipline and patriotism help as well.

[66QQ66]

Give me a break. USA is eating the shit of neolibralism which lets information, capital and ideas to flow. Unless USA thinks it is truly tasty... China is neither socialist nor capitalist. Your "free" America is trying hard to learn lesson from China on controling capitals.

[JohnR22926]

66Q: well, I'm sure your opinions are very interesting, but I can't understand one word of your post.

And I assure you, despite the West's current liquidity crisis and stock market drop (due to panic selling), there is NOTHING the US/EU can learn from China on market economics. China is headed for greatness, but for now, they're experts only on Kung Pao chicken and accupuncture.

[66QQ66]

sure, you have the freedome and human rights to believe that China only has Kung Pao chicken and accupuncture to export. Better to let this idea to flow rather than promoting the China threat. You don't need to understand my words, I have no time to give you lecture on how Paulson yesterday became an apprentice of Hong Kong by stablizing stock market. The moment DJIA went up, he sentenced the death penalty to the "free market." Let's see how long can you hold your freaking Americna values

[JohnR22926]

66Q: We'll be just fine in America. We've been doing this since we were born; for about 250 years. We've been through many crises before and will come through this one even stronger.

China has had a free market now for about 20 years. You are children compared to us. And lke a child, you are rude and arrogant.

[66QQ66]

Geeze, what a wonderful baby boomer who still keep optimistic about everything even with the shirking IRA and 401k. You have a great potential to be a psychiatrist. The US is only 250 year old. China was the biggest economy for thousands of years long before your great nation came into exist. Am I a child? LMAO

[JohnR22926]

66Q: Yes, I know all about China's history. But in all your 2,000 years you have NEVER operated a modern market economy. This is ALL the US has ever done; it's what we're best at. Understand? Chinese are best at accupuncture...we are best at capitalism. You have much to learn from us in this area.

And yes, you act like a child. You are arrogant, rather emotional, and tell half-truths while blindly praising your country.

[midn135]

apparently you don't know about China's history. China has 5000 years of history. China has been considered by many historians to be the oldest civilization on earth.

[JohnR22926]

midn: I'm highly educated with a post graduate degree...I assure you I'm well aware of China's history. Yes, it's many thousands of years old, much older than europe. But...so what? Egypt has an ancient civilization too, but I sure wouldn't want to live there right now.

Hopefully you're not implying that because China's civilization is so old that their current system is automatically superior.

[LADXIDOO]

why if chinese gorverment as people saying here it`s being too strong nowdays.. i seeing all around north america like san francisco,texas,california,new york,etc etc... But Mostly In vancouver there`s a LOT, lots of lots of them ,almost 35 percent of that city`s conforming right now by them doing a living out of that chance of their own country to take`em and not to be more than a simply Immigrant ?? that`s something I don`t understand if it`s their owns country growing up., more`em leaving it

[eternalobi]

lol chinese average income is $1000 a year. thats like 100th somehting in the world. Strong does not equal to rich. kuwait is rich. is it strong? got owned by iraq remember? usa helped them out. 1950 china fight usa in korea. they are like poorer than africa back then. if you are an individual, doing you want to live in Iran or Kuwait? i take kuwait even if theya re weaker than Iran.

[stephentsang2000]

There are going to be many Chinas in the coming world. Don't let your shitty chauvinism to blind yourself~

[lamparalaptopiaguita]

lol communism

and unlike china, the US has these people call 'chinese americans'....not to mention, other minority-americans. Can China lay claim to such diversity? Lol you are the chauvinist

[murphybrac]

De bonnes questions et de bonnes réponse. Une analyse claire et précise de la réalité économico-politique Chinoise.

[hurchel]

look around has your city been sold to asian people? Are they in your city offering development assistance. Are the bonds they sell to your city legitimate? Have they influenced a foreign trade zone in your area?

The us owes them so much money or the cities are so desperate for cash, or are there rumors the chinese are coming in they will clean everything up? Beware and put your proerty up for sale now relocate

[superfisto]

Fear China!