Dow Jones Elliott Wave Weekend Review (21/08/2010)

[jpandyaraja]

max .....we did not get the " third wave masaccre " this week .......i think a revision

might be in order..........so far you got it quite right, but my suspicion did not seem

unfounded when the damage did not materialize....good work so far none the less....rgds j

[optionsupdate]

Where would you buy or sell and which stops would you use?

[optionsupdate]

how do u get a login for the lounge?

[cosmicguerilla1]

got me shirt and tie on , just joined de lounge , so ya better let me in for some drinks .

respect !

[Andronichuk]

@cosmicguerilla1 hahaha.

Drinks will be waiting... hopefully if we get this crash, we will all be sipping on the Champagne by the end of the week :D

[jpandyaraja]

wonderful concise and crisp analsys Max .......as you know i lean towards your alternative

count......chances are we have finished abc down on the rising wedge foramation.....

but you are absolutely right....all the last 2 months puzzle will be solved next week.......

kind rgds j

[orangedac]

my S&P puts are still in the red despite the downward momentum.

all i need now is a rally to give me more grief.

here's to hoping the bear is back.

i'll be watching for the worm to turn later in the week. over & out.

[jpandyaraja]

@orangedac against my better judgement i shorted on thursday.....first thing

tomorrow i will cover and possibly go long

[Mike3gdc]

Max,nice analysis for both bears and bulls,just on your last 5 waves on friday close,it cant be diagonal,since diagonals have overlapping trait.also you move your mouse pointer too much,when you move it 4 objects move(orange circle pointer,price and time pointers also the close,open box) it does hurt eyes,atleast it did to me.just a suggestion.great update as always :)

[Andronichuk]

@Mike3gdc haha. Thanks for the suggestion mike... will take it on board :)

[ElliottTrader]

@Mike3gdc Agree with this comment that a leading diagonal must have an overlap in the fourth wave. My count on the most recent structure is that what is labeled as wave 2, is w, the subsequent move down is x, and the double-top is y to make a zigzag to 2. Then, what would be (iii) in this video is really (i), with an a-b-c Elliott Irregular Correction following. The implications and target box would be the same, overall.

[Andronichuk]

@ElliottTrader Diagonals don't require an overlap, although the overlap is very common.

Even on Elliott Wave International's site when discussing leading diagonals they say "within which wave four almost always moves into the price territory of  wave one". So it is rare that they do not overlap, but it can happen.

[ElliottTrader]

@Andronichuk Hmmm.. probabilities, probabilities Max. Sounds a bit like you are word twisting the Elliott definition of 'almost always' to 'except when I don't want them to!" Lol. I hope this is what friends are for: to be candid and forthright. Your first name-sake (Max Planck) would want always to think of the probabilities.

[Andronichuk]

@ElliottTrader How do you mean Joe?

As I say, no where have I seen the statement that diagonals MUST have overlaping waves 1 & 4. Either way, regardless of if you agree with the diagonal or not, it is pretty meaningless to debate as even with your alternative count...

the expectation is pretty much the same.

[ElliottTrader]

@Andronichuk No worries mate. Was just trying to make the point that if EWI says that more often than not w-1 and 1-4 overlap, then the probabilities likely lean in that direction, but, as you say it's a moot point now. We did have a reasonably nice down day in the SP500, after the "c" wave up completed. So, let's celebrate that we came up with equivalent outcome counts.

[Clarissa2424]

I do not understand why Dow going past 10, 400(approx) is a bad thing and reason to be concerned for bulls?

Are you predicting a crash - and trying to pinpoint when it will happen?

[Andronichuk]

@Clarissa2424 Move above 10480 is bad sign for bears*.

It looks to me like there will be a crash next week if we have a very weak bounce on monday into my target area (blue box) and then reverse to take out last friday's low.

The key is for the bulls to not get enough momentum to take out 10480. If that level is taken out... picture changed.

It's not a "bad" thing per se, it's just a key level that will change the outlook of this analysis.

Thanks for the questions.

[UPSIPO]

I am very happy from your video, because I am starting to understand a little bit EWP. Let me give you my opinion: Morgage rates all time low and Real Estate goes down. TLT long bond goes up like crazy. Bad news all over. The companies that beats estimates are not doing it from pure operational but cost cutting. Unemployment higher. IT REEKS of deflation, Goldbugs are stuborn and in denial ! Gold should crash soon, if it is manipulated now, it is "not to collapse", How can the most lose?

[UPSIPO]

@UPSIPO How can the most investors lose money? Everybody is on the Inflation side. If inflation happens everybody wins, government, mortgage payers, stock holders, Gold ETC...

Since when Mr. Market rewards the majority? Deflation will surprise the hell of everybody! Stocks collapse, Gold / Silver slaughtered, defaults all over...

You should also include volume in your analysis.

[cosmicguerilla1]

thanks for posting max ,

very interesting , can i get a beer at the trader lounge ?

cheers

[Andronichuk]

@cosmicguerilla1 you can get any drink ya want :)

Honestly, come check it out... it's becoming a great place for traders to chill out.