Questioning the Singularity: Is technological advancement quantifiable?

[Jotto999]

Ah, very informative! I like the articulate way that you speak. It seems you've done considerable research into the subject.

[notbored12]

It is well-established that Moore's Law broke down in ~2005. The whole idea of the "singularity" to me is wishful thinking at best and delusional at worst, since all that is offered is hand-waving, rather than say, a proper theoretical understanding of intelligence.

[CalumnMcAulay]

@notbored12 so you are saying that Ray Kurzweil who has six first inventions,14 honorary doctorates, designs rapid response systems for bioterrorism doesn't have a proper theoretical understanding of intelligence?

[FeelFreeToArgue]

Interesting stuff. My only concern is that while certain developments may impact the liklihood of the singularity taking place - it is still, in the final analysis, a particular event. It may hang out at what we consider to be a 99.9% chance of occurring for quite a while.

Also, since we have no experience w/ it, at best factors which we predict will affect its likelihood are only guesses, and certainly have either more or less bearing than we believe.

[funkalunatic]

True, but we can still assess a rough range of possibility. IMO, the usual problem with predicting the future hasn't been lack of accuracy, because reliable accuracy is impossible, but rather, the narrowness of the possibilities under consideration. They say "hope for the best and prepare for the worst", but you can only hope and prepare for what you imagine to be possible. I try to reason out what the future's probably going to be like, but I fully expect to be proven wrong on the details.

[Northern1961]

Looking forward to the rest of this series, thanks.