Stratfor's Friedman on China, economy and Afghanistan - RT 091202

[Phead128]

China is going to dominate, obviously because it has 25% of humanity under one roof.

[MEpianist]

Withdrawing from Afghanistan is very difficult because of the signal it would send to the rest of the Islamic world. -- this guy sounds like a neo-con propagandist.

[energyalt56]

Just one year before he said China household at $80/month?? In 2011, IMF report is $6700 a year or $550 per month,

He should do his homework !!

IMF report China will surpass z U.S in 2016, actually China's GDP already reach $11.2 trillion today, i bet another 1 year, China will surpass U.S 14.7 trillion

China's GDP in 2025 will be $123 trillion, double global GDP combin is expected

[amareto35]

I hear him saying (Friedman) in Australia "The white house knows Taliban will win".

I guess this interview was long time ago...

[thewiffenpoof]

this guy not only looks like bush but thinks like him as well. though Bush seems slightly more intelligent and informed.

[thewiffenpoof]

How does it follow that because millions of Chinese make 1000 dollars a year that China will not surpass the US's GDP in the future? Has this guy ever taken an economic and critical thinking class before?

[redwhitedude]

@thewiffenpoof maybe he is hinting at the fact that the part of china is growing is a small fraction and that might be inflated. If china wants growth to be on solid footing it has to be accompanied with improvement on people's income i.e. a significant number of people's income increasing beyond 1000 dollars. Why? More money more consumption.

[thewiffenpoof]

@redwhitedude You still didn't answer the question I asked. It doesn't matter that it is a small fraction that is growing. (Actually, that assumption is false as China has taken 500 million people out of poverty in the last 30 years which is no small fraction). How does it follow that just because millions make 1000 dollars a year that eventually China's economy will not surpass the US's? That is a critical thinking issue. The conclusion doesn't follow from the premise. Critical thinking 101.

[redwhitedude]

@thewiffenpoof The guy is hinting that china may be in for a fall. The thing is that he is alluding to the fact that china despite its progress is still poor. The quality of the GDP is not very good. Also for your information $1000 is still not a high enough figure to get people to be consumers. The bench march for a middleclass is $20,000. Lifting people out of poverty is different from people having disposable income which leads to a consumer class which is more solid footing economically.

[thewiffenpoof]

@redwhitedude No, I wasn't talking about that. I was talking about the part where he says China will never overtake the US because millions make only 1000 dollars a year. That doesn't follow. Again, critical thinking.

[redwhitedude]

@thewiffenpoof He is saying that china is a poor country because most people make either less than $1000 or $2000. Given this current state it doesn't compare to the US. On all this it follows his reasoning.

[thewiffenpoof]

@redwhitedude Again, you fail to see the crucial point. Because China has people making that much a year now does not follow that they will not eventually catch up to the US in economic size. You see there is a difference between the present and the future. Also, many other factors come in play when evaluating whether some economy will catch up to a larger one. One is population size. Two is rate of growth. Three is potential for growth. your failure to understand that difference is problematic.

[thewiffenpoof]

@redwhitedude China's economy is already almost as large as the US's so already, the person's prediction is starting to fail. In PPP terms (wiki it) it is very close and the IMF (wiki it) and Goldman Sachs (wiki it) all predict China will surpass the US in overall economic size in the next 5-10 years. You can put on blinders and keep telling yourself that because they make such and such now they will never catch up but that is illogical.

[chairde]

George Friedman is one of the few anyalists who is willing to base his predictions on FACTS and not prejudice and emotion. Everyone who has been here on RT predicting the collapse of the USA are fools. In my lifetime I've been through several minor and major recessions and each time the US comes back stronger. Recession is part of the system, a built in removal of waste and renewal for the future.

[anonyms404]

It's so hilarious how the interviewer is trying to prop-up Obama's agenda and hype.

[211Alucard]

Of course this guy have nothing to worried about he have millions and his bankers are helping him.People who are rich or mega rich.They are going to say that the economy is fine and every one is over exaggerate.You have every body in different countries talking about the collapse of the world economy and this guy just sit there with a smile and lie about it.

[nickrhill]

If anyone can find someone who is a successful predictor of events, and can offer a compelling countervailing view to Peter Schiff, Celente and Faber, please let me know.

I consider myself in the Austrian School, but am also aware that as times change, the predictive nature of an economic theory may also fall apart.

I believe Friedman knows what he is doing. He is talking up the dollar; something which needs to be done to delay what right now appears to me to be inevitable.

[truenorthcorn]

this guy is full of shit,

what's the difference between billion and trillion

[by78]

Wow, I like his smug face: it makes for a good punch bag. As for the world economy and China, I will take the words of Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff, and George Soros, all of whom are laughing to the bank at the expense of the armchair theorists like this clown here.

[triggersots4686]

he sat too long in his office, should go out more, ignorant and very biased

[spiritbreakerz]

Yea 14.2trillion economy and also over 10trillion of debt

[TheDualEconomist]

@spiritbreakerz With 300 trillion of global assets that can be repatriatized or tax at any given moment.

[ClarksonsinUSA]

@spiritbreakerz think of like this... A guy makes $50,000 a year,he borrows $150,000 for 30 years.....Would you say he in good or bad shape????? Where do these people go to school???? ;)

[manofsan]

Friedman would naively laugh off the social security insolvency nightmare

He downplays the return of multi-polarity which existed prior to the Cold War

He seems ignorant of the shift of economic power to Asia

He'll probably tell you that General Motors is doing just fine and always will

[fjremus]

this guy is a rich idiot--what a smug little man

[LenovoFightsPoverty]

This guy is completely crazy.

[bboucharde]

George Friedman,

Thanks for interviewing with RT and providing your provocative perspective. However, you twice used the term "billion" in your initial statement re: GDP's, but you must have meant "trillion." Try to avoid these gaffes, as they can affect overall credibility.

Respectfully,

BBoucharde

[mauiwowi]

this guy is idiot

this guy doesn't know what numbers are

mass debt and unemployment, its only a start of GD part 2 here in USA

14.2 T is based on past numbers