Bottom of the Stock Market Crash!?!? More Perfect than Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers or Marc Faber!

[smitchl100]

BTW, you said you didnt think the bottom was near. This video was made on 2-23-09 and the bottom was made on 3-09-09, s+p 666 was the bottom

[smitchl100]

I think you should have said bubbles a little more, LOL

[Growby10]

one month after i made this video...down hit 6,500...that's pretty damn on target!

[cosmicguerilla1]

good stuff man , lets have a new one right now , see what u think

[gvsmitty19]

4-6k on the dow?? No way

[Simcat888]

Hi, Where did you go on your Australian visit? I'm from Australia. I have been living in L.A. but think I will go back to 'Paradise'. S

[Growby10]

maybe i'll join you! I was in Sydney..and it was great!

[artfantasies]

IMO the actual problem is that real "classic" investors are out the market and don't will jump back in because the market belongs to traders and institutional manipulators.

There is a new strategie of the institutions ---> to overtake now bankrupted companies because of their assets. Chinese and Korean investors buy one base and precious metal company after the other.

[moomman89]

Thank You.

[MarionWeller]

Yeh, I learned my lesson at the same time.

I also was in the stock market (unfortunately kind of heavy in Nasdaq) in 2000/2001 and when the stocks went down at that time always heard and therefore believed in that "on-the-long-term" myth. So I held on.

Well, I got out of everything in July 2007. If you look back, not a bad timing. The DOW was around 13,000 at that time.

Still I have lost a lot of money... and if I would still believe in "holding on" my lost right now would be even higher.

[Fullperson]

perhaps I can ride this current bubble and drop at the top? How long do you guys think C's data will continue to rise?

[ANZUS777]

Thanks for the vid. Very informative.

[LLCoolPass]

no its not

[qkholster]

Great video, really puts things in perspective, thanks.

[pokerslut530]

Not to mention the derrivative bubble.... this is something that isn't being discussed very much but is unquestionably one of the largest problems in the financial sector. If you're unaware of it, definitely get to googling.

[AntiBullS]

it is better to take $ 100 profit than to take $ 1000 loss

you have to be like a rat which tries to snatch small bites of cheese out of a mouse trap really quickly before it snaps and you have to make sure person who set the trap is not watching :)

[Growby10]

@antiBull. amen brother!

[AntiBullS]

this is why you should never hold . There are hardly any investors left , mostly short term traders keep your stop loss orders tight and buy opposite options  but honestly I would not touch this market with a 9 ' pole as I believe all paper assets will be wiped out soon.

[Growby10]

buy and hold..forever!!!...oh the wall streeter will did a massive con job on the US investors!

woe is he who held all the way down from 14,000 to 6,000!!!

[FCKEVRY1]

We must also note the illusion which occurs when we measure a falling market with a falling currency. Dudes, in terms of money at the value it held in 1913 (when the federal reserve was imposed) our precious DOW is only at about 270 points...probably even less by the time I finish typing this comment. That's right folks, spend your money as fast as you can. It's worth less every second. Right now, your dollar buys a dozen, tomorrow 10! Better get moving! Oh, and don't forget to pay your taxes!

[Growby10]

@fckervery1:

true...WHEN inflation get out of control. But in the mean time...we have massive deflation and wealth destruction. This may counter and/or delay the coming inflation (and dollar collapse)...it's a thought and i will be doing a video going into this more deeply...please stay tune! thanks!

[mneedes]

I am interested in seeing a plot of historical P/E ratios (price to earnings) vs. index prices. Do you know where we can find a chart of this ?

[Growby10]

why? I think there are more powerful graphs you may focus on..for example. like long-term dow chart adjusted for inflation. or the dow/gold ratio, etc. i would like to know exactly what you're looking for.....i'm getting curious myself..thanks!

[AmeroAmigo]

This was a waste of 10 minutes of my life.,.

[Growby10]

why? i'm always trying to improve...so please shot me a comment on what you didn't like and why. thanks!

[brh986]

Listen here you stupid fucking dipshit armchair economic commentator. There is no excuse for you to show a long term chart of one index and then show a different one for a shorter time period and try to pass them off as the same. The only index that peaked in the "bubble" previous to this one is the nasdaq. And what you said of holding your money for 10 years and not getting it back only applies to NASDAQ stocks. Shut the fuck up if you don't have a good answer you stupid fuck.

[Growby10]

@brh986. Thank you for proving my peanut remark.

Bro, you started it. As you can tell from my video's i'm just trying to share my thoughts, comment w/ our community way in a informative, yet somewhat entertaining way. Now you come on here and start cursing at me...for no good reason.

How would YOU respond?!?!

[brh986]

You either don't know what you're talking about or you are giving a distorted perspective. Either way why not let people that KNOW what they're talking about like Schiff and Faber do the talking instead of shamelessly trying to draw people to your inaccurate videos by exploiting there names?

[Growby10]

good point. about the names.

But, we all have to use a little marketing in this world to promote ourselves...don't we?

[brh986]

Not really, if you have something to stay that stands on its own merit (or how about at least factually correct?) you can stand own your own merit.

[DonReno007]

@brh986. you're obviously a ignorant loser. I don't know why growby10 even spends any energy responding to your dumb ass.

[Jeaniea78]

dude. just admit you're wrong like a man. i ran the charts...both for the 10 yr and long term for the nasdaq...and growby10 seems to be right.

[brh986]

He likes to talk about "ulterior motives" maybe you idiots looking on youtube for investment advice should consider his - why pass off two different indexes as the same without explaining it? Either due to incompetence or for some other reason. Same goes for the 10 year statement unless you qualify it as only applying to Nasdaq/tech stocks. Shameful people, is everyone this stupid, really? You defend this?

[Growby10]

Ok. let's end this by you tell me and the rest of the readers that after YOU looking at the long-term (say about 40 yrs) NASDAQ chart that my premise of bubbles reverting to back to the mean (adjusted for inflation) is WRONG.

I will admit defeat and trust you to put up the truth, as an honorable person, and post your response to this FACTUAL yes or no question.

[brh986]

Why the fuck are you showing a long term chart of the dow (~40 year) but then a short term chart of the nasdaq (~10 year). That's apples to apples. It only aplies to the nasdaq index that holders for 10 years haven't gotten anywhere near their money back. This is an intellectually dishonest presentation.

[Growby10]

@brh986 it must take a lot to be so stupid...and i applaud you...you're doing a great job!

No seriously, b/c we're limited to 10mins. I can't cram this entire theory (and stats, charts, etc) in that tiny time frame. it would be like trying to fit a peanut into your brain...no way possible =).

I showed this theory (reverting to mean) can work in mid-term time periods...like the 10 yr example in the Nasdaq i showed. as well as the 80yr dow chart.

Just do a long-term chart on Nasdq & behold

[Growby10]

@brh986 please run a long term chart of Nasdaq and post your follow up comments here for all to see. Thank you very much for the comments!

[atube1001]

I think it is arrogant of you to cal this analysis as "more" accurate than Marc Faber's work.

[Growby10]

i thought most youtubers would understand that that's just a little marketing spice. and by no means saying i am "more" correct than Marc. thanks for you comments

[PhotonDrive]

I understand that the NYSE lost about 50% in the past 8 months. More than 2 1/2 Trillion? With more than 460 trillion out there in "Dirivatives", this seems a piddling amount? Perhaps we can get along fine without any stock market? Perhaps what we are watching is the stock markets ALL going out - like the town lights winking out one by one, on a late summers night?

[Rspringscabin]

bottoms happen every fucking time when 1 thing happens. NOBODY is talking about it and gave up.

[donharlan1]

Yes! The bottom isn't even close to being in, priced. The last bottom we had occurred in mid-02. Kudlow, the perennial bull, gave up on the market on Kudlow and Cramer. And guess what happened...

[chunstiger]

If you look at the entire DOW chart over time you can see a nice steady growth line that would put us in the 2-3K range. Adjusted for inflation this is probably where it will bottom. 1oz Gold = DOW at some point.

[Growby10]

we are getting closer to it....it seems. i will be doing a video about this. please come back and check it out! thanks!

[jagiar]

The problem with your analysis is that your basic premise - 'reverting back to the mean' - may not necessarily hold. Peter Lynch (famed Fidelity fund manager) once said "you can't invest in the market by looking in the rear view mirror". The market may revert to somewhere above (or below) the mean. For example, if corporations became for more profitable in the last decade then previous, then they would deserve a higher premium (i.e. p/e ratio). So it's not so black and white.

[jagiar]

This is not to say that I don't agree with your conclusion. I too think the market has a way to go. How far and for how long is beyond my capability to say.

[Growby10]

your comments seems like it make sense..until you put you theory to test. take some of the best companies, like, GE, Microsoft, Google,etc....and look at their long term charts...they all revert to the mean. this is NOT to say that there are some that may not fit this model...but you can't base your model on the .01% of companies that are the exception to this "rule". Please send any companies that you can disprove this rule...i am curious to know any that are exceptions. Thanks!

[jagiar]

Well, first of all, you'd have to follow the profitability of the companies that make up the DJIA index (since this is what you're charting). Going as far back as your chart is, some of the companies do not even exist anymore.

To say that company A reverts back to their mean, doesn't really make sense (wadr) since every price hike/dip changes that mean. Yes, prices go up and down, but to say they revert back to their mean is incorrect.

[jagiar]

To prove my point, take the company that you mentioned - GE. Take the chart of GE going back to 1920, adjusted for stock splits, and I can assure you that it HAS NOT reverted back to it's mean. GE has been one of the best performing stocks in history.

Another extreme example would be Berkshire Hathaway class A shares.

Go back far enough for any profitable company, who's profitablity has changed (for example due to technology) and the stock price has not reverted back to it's mean.

[Growby10]

I can't post a link here but BOTH GE and Berkshire have reverted to the mean (adjusted for inflation and compared to the growth of the DOW). Go to Yahoo finance, and put in their stock symbols...hit the "max" time frame and behold. I'm NOT trying to argue w/ you but there may always be a very small number of companies that can perform as you say...but again, if it's 1 out of 1000, doesn't it make sense NOT to try to identify those, but rather make money form the overall trends?

[Growby10]

that's why it's SOOOOOO hard for fund managers to beat the "market" and there has been test after test that by throwing darts to pick stock is just as good OR better than the majority of professional stock pickers. I HOPE for our readers you would please respond AFTER you check the long term charts of both GE and Berkshire. Even IF you were right, i wouldn't bet on individual stocks...it's just too risky for my investment style.

Thank you so much for your comments!

[jagiar]

I think you need to check the charts of GE and Berkshire going back as far as you've gone back with the Dow. But as you said, I'm not trying to argue with you either. But, as you also said, if it was as easy as stocks/indexes reverting back to their means, then we wouldn't have Harvard educated investment analysts.

With your theory you could EASILY invest a few thousand dollars in the futures market and within a year become a millionaire (with puts or index swaps).

[fawnknudsen]

search for "Henry Rollins" and "disconnect" and that is about where I am at with all of this.

[Growby10]

I feel yah!!! Thanks for that!

[Atom299]

Thanks for that.

It's an interesting philosophy that makes a lot of sense and certainly looks to be backed up by your charts.

[Growby10]

Most investors don't look at LONG TERM trends or fundamentals... which prove themselves over and over again. Thanks for your comment!

[Atom299]

Have you tested this theory with the gold charts?

All I can see in a 5 year or 20 year chart is just up and up and up.

Do you have any opinions on that?

[Growby10]

just wrote a long reply w/ a link...it's all gone now =( ...that's what i get for doing this while half asleep! I'll be sending the link soon. Thanks for the comments!