Real Estate Prices show when to Buy, Flip and Sell

[jedfa987]

I don't get how you can extrapolate like that.

Real estate prices did nothing of the sort until the 1970s, and the 90s peak wasn't much higher than the 80s peak. And the drop after the 90s peak went to almost as low as the drop after the 80s peak.

So why would the previous peak become the next floor, for the first time in US real estate price history?

Given the amazing amount of government intervention how can you predict anything about the current market from the past?

[MrAlanKendall]

@jedfa987

I see major depressions in Real Estate in 1890's, 1930's, 1970's and 2010's so we can learn from the 40 year cycles of the past. In the 1890's Mckinley went on the gold standard and printed dollars to "Inflate" out of depressed prices. FDR started 35 Govt programs between 1933-35 to spend and "inflate" out of depressed prices. Nixon went off the gold standard in 1971 to justify printing and "inflating". Today between 3 and 4 billion is printed each day to "inflate" our way out.

[flagship21]

I wonder where toronto falls in this chart?????

[MrAlanKendall]

@flagship21

My cousin has a couple of homes in Toronto and he asks me the same question. The Canadian economy and dollar are strong in forestry exports and are doing well. Home prices depend on the law of supply and demand. If foreclosures are rising, prices must fall. If foreclosures are not rising but being sold off, then prices are stable. If foreclosures dry up, demand is greater than supply and prices rise. I know the US because I have been following it for 30 years.

[ruanorafa]

Makes a lot of sense but my issue is where is all this demand for housing going to happen when unemployment is at almost 10% and growing..:\ and with the fed having all time low interest rates they r bound to go up...it will just kill the real estate market for yrs to come...I don't see a rebound for many yrs...unless inflation kicks in....

[MrAlanKendall]

@ruanorafa

The weak dollar keeps exports like cotton, metals, grains very strong. This keeps the economy from collapsing. Exports helps the central states but not the outer states like CA and NY. Population increase (1.35 million per year) slowly absorbs the 4 million foreclosures. I expect the foreclosed homes to be sold off in 2016. Over the last 20 years, immigration and births have averaged over 2.5 million increase in population per year in the US.

[3089280288]

real estate cycles are 8-10 years.

[rusonidehtekim]

I should not buy a home until prices do not fall for at least one year.