I think Prop has something like KQ. I actually wish you had raised the flop more so I could be more certain...but it seems pretty clear he has top pair. As for Louie, when idiots underbet-donk the flop and call a raise they usually have a draw or top-pair weak kicker, so I think he has K10 or 67. Since the turn check-check-checked I think one person will pay off a smaller bet and the other will fold. So I'd wait a few seconds (makes it more convincing that you might be bluffing) and bet $9.50.
Btw BB very, very rarely has midpairs. Pretty sure his range is like K's, some trappzorz sets, draws that have made a loose peel pre anticipating a multi-way pot and that's about it. Think he has KTs, KJso, KQso a vast majority of the time here and for the reasons stated below is liable to call off a 3/4 pot bet - btw, i think with our polarised range he is AS likely to pay off a 3/4 bet as a 60% pot bet, so the sizing of $16 is better than $12 for me. UTG calling would be unexpected bonus.
Think we are pretty polarised. If we have top pair we'd prob barrell again (KQ+) on safe turn. With a set we DEFFO barrell again so that can be ruled out. With midpairs we flat the donko a lot of the time to pot control/no need to turn our hand into a bluff.
Think it leaves us weak kings that we think we can value on river (KJ, KQ i guess), backdoor nines and air. Means a thinking BB can checkraise a big hand here and can hero with a lot of weak kings. Think I bet like $16 and fold to a BB c/r.
forget about the fish. He won't call anything on the river since he saw all the cards.
I put the big blind on a JJ TT maybe QQ.
I doubt that he has any kind of King broadway card, since he called your 3bet on the flop being aware of the fish too, who was betting first.
I would bet big, close to pot. You made a 3bet on the flop and then checked the turn, which is a very very bluffy line. The big blind will probably call.
I think The BB is going to show down a Strong King that He was intending on Ch+ raiseing him self, only you beat him to the punch, so feeling that you may have him crushed and stacking off, he elected to Flat your raise of the UTG player.
So i would day that UTG player may have a pair hand that is from 66 - TT excluding 99 of course. and is not calling your Bet of about 12 in to 20
they dont have a set for sure, i would say 2 pair or maybe jacks 10s 8s, i would bet $13.5 hopefully someone calls. if you are not sure then bet a small amount $5 and get some money.
The short stack probably has something like A5s,A4s,66-88,67s,36s,KT-KJ .. but after his river check i really dont think he has a king because he would definitely bet it on river.. unless its a retarded king like K3s or something its hard to judge without having played with him
I would expect proph to have K9s-KJs,KJo cuz he called a bet+raise.. he might check/call on river since u showed strength pf+otf
I would bet 60-65% pot so like $12.50 because you don't want really weak kings to fold
I put Louie on a range of any busted open ender or gutshot other than 37, any pocket pair 6's through 9's, any 4 or 5 that's part of a connector or suited 1 or 2 gapper, and any king up to KT. If K8 or lower, it's definitely s00ted.
@itstonymac Short, meaningless comment which isn't even correct.
Minsheme 3 months ago
I think Prop has something like KQ. I actually wish you had raised the flop more so I could be more certain...but it seems pretty clear he has top pair. As for Louie, when idiots underbet-donk the flop and call a raise they usually have a draw or top-pair weak kicker, so I think he has K10 or 67. Since the turn check-check-checked I think one person will pay off a smaller bet and the other will fold. So I'd wait a few seconds (makes it more convincing that you might be bluffing) and bet $9.50.
EGarrett01 1 year ago
Btw BB very, very rarely has midpairs. Pretty sure his range is like K's, some trappzorz sets, draws that have made a loose peel pre anticipating a multi-way pot and that's about it. Think he has KTs, KJso, KQso a vast majority of the time here and for the reasons stated below is liable to call off a 3/4 pot bet - btw, i think with our polarised range he is AS likely to pay off a 3/4 bet as a 60% pot bet, so the sizing of $16 is better than $12 for me. UTG calling would be unexpected bonus.
antiiniem1 1 year ago
Think we are pretty polarised. If we have top pair we'd prob barrell again (KQ+) on safe turn. With a set we DEFFO barrell again so that can be ruled out. With midpairs we flat the donko a lot of the time to pot control/no need to turn our hand into a bluff.
Think it leaves us weak kings that we think we can value on river (KJ, KQ i guess), backdoor nines and air. Means a thinking BB can checkraise a big hand here and can hero with a lot of weak kings. Think I bet like $16 and fold to a BB c/r.
antiiniem1 1 year ago
oh i thing the BB has a A5/A4 Hand and the UTG has KTo to KQo! :P
Wasserkoenig 2 years ago
forget about the fish. He won't call anything on the river since he saw all the cards.
I put the big blind on a JJ TT maybe QQ.
I doubt that he has any kind of King broadway card, since he called your 3bet on the flop being aware of the fish too, who was betting first.
I would bet big, close to pot. You made a 3bet on the flop and then checked the turn, which is a very very bluffy line. The big blind will probably call.
dondesto 2 years ago
I think The BB is going to show down a Strong King that He was intending on Ch+ raiseing him self, only you beat him to the punch, so feeling that you may have him crushed and stacking off, he elected to Flat your raise of the UTG player.
So i would day that UTG player may have a pair hand that is from 66 - TT excluding 99 of course. and is not calling your Bet of about 12 in to 20
wildDuces234 2 years ago
Lol russells, i think he has KJ of spades much more often here.
e4ds 2 years ago
they dont have a set for sure, i would say 2 pair or maybe jacks 10s 8s, i would bet $13.5 hopefully someone calls. if you are not sure then bet a small amount $5 and get some money.
S3xybek 2 years ago
The short stack probably has something like A5s,A4s,66-88,67s,36s,KT-KJ .. but after his river check i really dont think he has a king because he would definitely bet it on river.. unless its a retarded king like K3s or something its hard to judge without having played with him
I would expect proph to have K9s-KJs,KJo cuz he called a bet+raise.. he might check/call on river since u showed strength pf+otf
I would bet 60-65% pot so like $12.50 because you don't want really weak kings to fold
bohemia187 2 years ago 2
I put Louie on a range of any busted open ender or gutshot other than 37, any pocket pair 6's through 9's, any 4 or 5 that's part of a connector or suited 1 or 2 gapper, and any king up to KT. If K8 or lower, it's definitely s00ted.
And I put Proph on exactly KJ of diamonds.
RussellsParadox 2 years ago