my 2010 predictions - dollar dropped as world reserve currency, stock crash in spring or summer. $8k federal tax credit welfare ends 4/30, the housing market will dry up and added to the typical summer down, will be very bad. Commercial real estate will start to decline, but the bottom probably wont drop out until 2011. Unemplymnt will hit 14% by fall. There will be 2+ successful terror attacks, the Marxists will keep the Patriot act, try for stimulus 2, and more freedom sucking legislation. imo
unemployment is a lowsy figure to judge economic recovery on. Hell unemployment was low during WW2, but I'd like to see people calling a world war some kind of economic recovery. Not to mention govt counted the 3-4 million drafted into the military as "employed"
How about we have 50% of the people dig a ditch during the day, and at night the other 50% refill that ditch. Hey 100%, the economy must be good?
"He didnt devalue the $ enough" You cant possibly be serious with that statement.
none of which were contributed to low interest rates and fiat currency which is the hallmark of the far more devastating 20th century panics. 19th century panics were due to collapse of commodity prices and the practice of fractional reserve banking, not a gold standard. They were more localized too and not worldwide reaching. 20th century panics are far more damaging because of fiat money, arbitrary interest rates, and the joke of Keynesian economics that politicians use to try to fix them.
2000-2009, commodities have outperformed the stock market by a ton. Gold/Dow ratio from 2000-2009 plummets due to the massive money printing of that decade.
Stock market can't even come close to golds performance during this decade even enduring through the 2007-2008 stock market collapse.
Yes and those who think all big government programs are wrong are idiots. They should never get a government-subsidized vaccine, by the way. None of these fools should get flu shots.
Only a fool would get the government sponsored flu vaccine. Please tell us the outcome of your venture into purposely injecting yourself with Squalene turns out.
Urban sprawl and housing development, eh? Tell me, why do you think Zipf's law seems to fit the data well for the clustering of development that makes up cities?
Peter Schiff is an idiot. He correctly saw the economic meltdown coming and then stupidly proceeded to invest such that he lost 70% of his portfolio. That is like a physician correctly diagnosing a patient with heart disease and then stupidly prescribing flu medication. What a dumb douchebag!!!
If you are a goldbug, be sure NOT to buy it on margin. Leverage is very bad when buying a non-cash flowing asset. The short term variance can wipe out your equity and trigger a margin call. Don't borrow currency to buy commodities, because the commodity price won't rise soon enough or steady enough to cover your risk. Just pay all cash to preserve your purchasing power in anticipation of inflation. Beware capital gains taxation and govt confiscation.
All you fools who think the dollar is on a long term rebound against precious metals are about to see just how wrong you are. It's difficult to imagine being wrong about something more important than this, since keeping your assets in dollar-denominated assets means you'll be massacred as the dollar downgrade continues. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac borrowing, the third (so far) GMAC bailout, those who think the dollar is on the uptrend deserve destitution!
Are you suggesting that Hank Paulson nationalized the banks because they were doing great and it as a long aspired government ambition? I believe he reluctantly saved the banking system from complete failure. People need to think stopping of stimulus as stimuls, rather its purely life support.
Inflation is the increase in the money supply or credit. We are at record levels of inflation and the trend is not changing. Rising prices are a side effect of inflation, and just because it hasn't been fully realized yet does not mean we don't have inflation or that the prices will not rise. Historically, without exception, when a currency has been inflated to the levels we have in the U.S., that currency has failed. Without exception.
In a gold standard, if the gold is not in supply with the max amount of dollars printed for a gold standard, then prices must go down (the currency would gain small value). The problem is not that the gold standard doesn't work, it's that the Federal Reserve and Treasury didn't follow the gold standard while we had it towards the end. They printed too much currency vs what the government owned in gold.
thane17, the 2000-2007 period saw double digit price inflation if you include housing in CPI(which you should).
Credit and bank deposits spend in just the same way as federal reserve paper notes. Credit is collapsing, savings and income is falling due to rising unemployment. Price inflation comes from more purchasing power chasing a given quantity of good.
Price inflation will eventually come from debt monetization but barring Zimbabwe style printing it's not comming soon.
Whatever. Krugman, Rougini, Rogoff, Roach, Shiller, Stiglitz, and Feldstein all predicted the housing bubble would burst. Everyone knew there was a bubble. You're just stupid.
If you void a contract between a person with real equity (the house) and a fraud based money creation scheme such as bank-loans one might consider it justice.
loaning money they don't have, risk-free, at a 1:9 ratio, with interest! seems to be the best business i the world.
Anyone who has ever travelled knows that the best looking building in town is usually of some bank..
We need someone like Peter Schiff in Congess to educate the Wall St. lapdogs who currently are in contol. Ron Paul needs his help. Good job as always Mr. Schiff.
You did a lot better than Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and Paul Krugman. I'm not even an economist, but I have read many books on economics and watched countless hours of videos, read many articles, followed blogs and I live in the real world. So, perhaps that makes me more qualified than some of the professional economists.
Guys I think that we should not be so judgemental to other opinions as its divisive and unproductive.
Neither Schiff nor anyone commentating here can state that his opinions are empirical or prophetic.
For me the all or nothing mindset (All Commodities or All Stocks) is a flawed tact.
I'm trying my best to have as many bases covered as possible (Gold, Silver, Cash, food, Guns & Ammo, Debt free farm land and real estate) as I prefer tangible assets to the uncertainty of the stock trade.
So now we got a gold bubble this is just all becoming a fucked up joke, i think i'll stick with growing more food as thats the only thing that will matter soon.
For those of you who think gold is in a bubble, you are living in a fantasy world. Real estate was a bubble because everyone got in it and mortgage brokers approved any asshole to be pre approved for a mortgage. Gold however, requires capital to purchase it, REAL MONEY, and very few people own gold. Fact #2, Central Banks have historically been SELLERS of gold, NOW THEY ARE BUYERS..LOOK AROUND YOU, EVERY COUNTRY IS LOADING UP ON GOLD...NOT EVEN CLOSE TO A BUBBLE !! THE US DOLLAR IS HISTORY.
The Golden Rule. He who has All The Gold Rules! I say he who can shoot the fastest and accurate using the least amount of AMO WILL RULE. Good Luck Schiff.
Don't you think you should be posting this drivel on the CNBC channel or something?? People listen to Shiff to get away from mainstream media parrots.
Gold can only be a bubble if the majority of people see it as an asset. I think only 1 out of every 2000 people even know what the price of gold currently is, so it's not anywhere close to being a bubble.
lmao It doesn't take a majority of people. You start with the # of buyers X the average purchase amount ioan you apply this in a difference of weighted average model for both expected gains and costs. You have no idea what you're talking about. lmao
A bubble is when the general public gets involved, yes gold is going up but govts around the world are devaluing their currencies by printing so much fiat money. The average person is still unaware of gold unlike the housing market. But gold is not an investment, it doesn't yield dividends or equity, it's a store of wealth, as govts devalue paper money, it takes more paper money to buy an ounce of gold.
How much devaluation is occurring in each currency and what are the implications for domestic inflation and exchange values for each? lol
You talk about gold going up due to devaluation, yet how much devaluation can support the present gold price? Did you ever even think to check the numbers?
Besides, devaluation can keep a currency more valuable in the longrun by maintaining money velocity and hence economic growth and employment.
I know that the quatity of money is very important. Inflation is the increase in the money supply and credit. With the destruction of so much credit, the increase in the money supply has not been enough to off set that destruction. But the increase in the $ supply has gone to the top 1st. I think that the lack of transparency is a key issue. GATA just filed a suit against the Fed Res trying to figure out how they've been manipulating the gold prices down.
How buddie? Nations are printing so much money that its becoming worthless and that would mean the only sure way to preserve wealth is through precious metals. Eventually it'll be a bubble, but its nowhere near that yet
Nobody knows how much has been printed, we won't know until months, years later when prices rise as a result. Regardless, there will be heavy inflation so its just a matter of how much precious metals will rise. If we have a run and calls on silver derivatives the insider trading will be exposed and people will realised how rare the metal actually is above ground and it will for a short period of time be worth more than gold. That's when you sell your physical silver
Look at it this way, in the Earth's crust its 16 times more abundant than gold yet the price is 1/65th that of gold right now. Throughout history silver has always been 1/16th the price of gold. Now its used heavily in industry and in danger of going extinct according to the US Geological Society. Of course it won't go extinct, but the price will rise to a level where it'll be worthwhile recycling like gold. Look what happened to Rhodium
Next 3 years we see Gold below 650 and Silver below $5.
Did you know they had a perfectly logical reason why you could be a house with a tulip in 1650 Holland. There was also going to be no oil next week when it hit $140/barrel.
The madness will never end, never it is what people do.
Maybe, Peter Schiff is talking about the devaluation of the USD so if it collapses then gold can go much higher. I have the strong suspicion that the dollar will collapse as the reserve currency in 2010. I could be wrong, but the USDA is telling us that we have a surplus of food when that's not the case. Other countries could appreciate their currencies in order to attract food imports and it would result in the collapse of the USD as reserve currency.
The US home is a store of wealth. That was the propaganda, now revealed to everyone that a home is not a store of wealth. I like Peter Schiff who said that a home is a utility. The author of Rich Dad Poor Dad said that a home is a liability (takes money out of your pocket) and is only an asset for the bank who makes money from interest you pay on your mortgage. I never bought a house, I always saw too much hidden expenses that my salary wouldn't cover easily.
People thought that housing prices would go up forever and it was the best investment you could make. But it was a gov't mandated bubble. If you think about it, there is no reason why your house should appreciate in value, It should depreciate, just like a used car does.
In a way, yes, but land won't go down in value as the population increases and a home can be fixed up to increase it's value. It depreciates in the fact that you have to spend money fixing it up in order for it to retain it's value.
I have personally researched housing prices through the years and I have noticed that the value of a house remains constant in relationship to the rate of inflation.
I would agree though that houses should somewhat depreciate. Though scarity of Land will appreciate the overall value.
Since 1970 inflation has gone up about 5.45% on average per year.
That is why bailouts are inevitable and when social security kicks in for the baby boomers and state bailouts simutaniously, then will be the currency crisis
I have the same feeling as peter about the state bailouts. I live here in Ny on Long Island and my parents are in real estate sales. The only people able to buy are govnt worker ( teachers, cops,fire, healthcare). And they have contract salaries with increases, how can the private sector catch up?
Gold will begin a protracted correction soon, if it hasn't already. Interest rates, TIPs spreads, nominal GDP growth, etc. indicate that inflation is expected to remain extremely low for at least another few years, as will economic growth. Hence, the demand for gold used in industry and jewelry will remain low, as will demand for gold as an inflation hedge.
This will only leave the gold bugs trying to hedge against total economic collapse, catastrophic civil unrest, and/or who knows what else.
Gold is much pricier than it was in the summer of 2008, after a considerable run up in commodities. Sometime over the next few years even many of the gold bugs will begin to relax and gold will find its way back to trend.
A lot of "Gold bugs" tend to be money historians who realize that the shelf life of free floating fiat currencies is around 40 years and Nixon closed the gold window in 1971. Gold's been money for 6000 years, paper money is just another science experiment doomed to fail.
Can you read ? I just said that Nixon closed the gold window in 1971
Notice what's happened to the intrinsic value of paper currency since that happened ? The dollar's lost 97% of it's value in the last 100 years but most of that has happened since 1971
Gold has been in a bull market for 10 years now, it has outperformed every single asset class and it's all time high inflation adjusted price is $2300/ounce.
It isn't even close to being a bubble yet, just ask the central bankers, they're now net buyers.
Sure. So, despite the fact that the market expects very little inflation or industrial or retail demand for gold, you think these prices are sustainable. Gold is much higher now than during inflationary summer of last year.
Finally, if you look at a chart of recent gold prices, they are rising at a prima facie too high a rate. The slop is now close to infinite , meaning demand is getting very close to infinite versus supply. Obviously, this growth in demand can't last much longer.
If the markets didn't expect inflation, then why is gold in a bull market? I don't know what you mean by "recent" prices, but if you use the "start point/end point" trick with a chart, I guess you could argue that the "recent" trend can't continue. Personally I see nothing weird about the charts.
The current environment is inflationary as well. Prices fell for a few months, but have been rising ever since. Soon it will be shown even in the year-to-year numbers.
Well, look at interest rates, Tips spreads, and futures prices. The numbers don't lie. Check Bloomberg and you'll see that interest rates are pretty flat and near historic lows going out to three years and only at about 4.5% ten years out. Is that evidence for inflationary expectations? Of course not. It's only the stupid gold bugs driving speculative demand and the crash will come very soon.
a huge majority of people arent even purchasing gold or just clueless on gold yet its called a bubble?
Inflation low? lol the CPI the govt uses is some BS manipulated number that doesnt include the two things that shoot up first during inflation...food and energy because "its too volatile" The govt has every reason to lie about the CPI to keep Social Security and other entitlement checks lower than what they really need to be. Seniors are getting robbed blind this way.
Read above and look at a recent chart. The graph for gold prices is almost exactly vertical. You think that rate of demand can continue? It's physically impossible.
CPI is for fools. The fact that you mention it lets me know you know nothing about economics. Serious people use the GDP deflator. You instant Peter Schiff economists annoy people who actually understand economics and investing. Schiff's record over the past year is disasterous.
Ive heard commentators from the Schiff way of thinking describe Bernanke and company as 1936 dinosaurs, because to apply policies that pertained to the 36 economy to the present one is an obvious mistake.
You know that even now the actual unemployment figures are hard to ascertain for the great depression as it is to the currant recession as well.
Many are stating that as far a percentages go, the figures are on parity with 1936 figures,
AGain with your simplistic thinking. It's not about the number of investors. You have to look at the average amount invested versus alternative investments. A change in demand can onlyget so steep before approaching infinite slope, which, of course, is impossible.
jag, Friedman was right about very many things. He advocated the raisng interest rates to smother the high inflation of the 70s and early 80s. It seems obvious today,but wasn't then. He also favored creating new money to fight recessions. Only when he was very old and maybe senile did he want to end the Fed.
In his Monetary History of the US, Friedman layed out his case against the Fed, claiming they allowed the money supply to fall by 33%., causing the Great Depression. This is accepted
Priests go to college for 5 years and learn bullshit. Looks like economists do likewise. Anyone living in the real world knows more than these so called experts
What's the most you can bet? Can you do $10,000? We can fax the appropriate paperwork, have it notarized, and even if not enforceable, at least I have something to hang on my wall if you bum out. I'm willing to go for much more than $10,000. Put your money where your mouth is.
is the closest thing to perfection in a capitalist system, even as it relates to savings and investment also recession and inflation. What is your best idea of an Economy based upon?
The Austrian model is a joke. It isn't even internally consistent.
For example, Austrians claim that low interest rates cause capital investment to shift further into the future, causing temporal malinvestment of capital. Yet, when interest rates cause the money supply to expand beyond that needed to maintain velocity at full employment, inflation results, which leads to higher interest rates. It just doesn't make sense.
You think you're smarter than real economists, but you aren't.
@Zeldovich in 1929 you could walk into the best mens store in NYC and buy a 3 piece suit, walk across the street and buy a steak dinner with your change( all from a $20.00 gold piece). Today you can still do that with that same $20.00 gold piece.
No fool, that has ALWAYS been true. Every year since @ least the turn of the century (1900) it has been true. Gold retains value. Gold retains buying power. That gold piece has exceeded it's face value in proportion to the rate the dollar supply has been inflated.
This is the reason real economists pay no attention to the Austrians. They're just ignorant, fringe nuts.
Visit the Mises Institute website and see how many economists they have on staff. They have almost none. There's Robery Murphy and maybe one other one.
Ron Paul doesn't claim to be an economist, he claims to subscribe to the Austrian School and he understands it very well. Obviously you disagree with Austrian theories but prefer to throw around insults instead of deal with Austrian arguments.
Jaquar, even a moderate and more reasonable position like yours is incomprehensible to these Schiff worshipers. They think they've learned all there is to know about economics by watching this clown on TV over the last year or so. They are too stupid to see how ignorant they are. All they have is assumptions and nothing else.
Schiff always expects economic disaster. He's been talking about it for 20-25 years. IF you say you expect it to rain everyday for a year, you'll be right attimes
i hate capital gains and Inheritance tax how unjust ,,,,, im sick of all the bullshit ,,,,, silver is my hope ,,, it's going up regardless of monetary demand . the IMF has alot of gold and could still control the market , if only every1 knew how it works , to many people watching tv ,, a whole nation of indoctrinated thinkers , try wake some1 up and they run kicking and screaming back to their little bubble they live inn. Banks our only BIG cause WE let them get big, time for counter evolution
Silver might be okay for a while, but gold is finished. Don't believe the idiots. Get a portfolio that is well balanced with a variety of commodities, foreign and domestic stocks, and real estate (REITs). Putting too many eggs in one box is just stupid.
IOUs? Wow, you really have no idea what you're talking about. Bonds and notes are IOUs and our debt is nowhere near a record high. Even if it were significantly higher than the record, we'd still be fine.
There will be no hyper-inflation and anyway and when even you idiot gold bugs realize that, gold will take a dive back to trend. I hope you're all heavily invested in gold so I can laugh at your dead ingnorant asses after your broke.
Governments should be able to issue their own debt-free notes and banks should just store and lend. No fractional reserve banking. All savings would then fund future investments and only the market would dictate interest rates (based on risk). This is the only way to avoid malinvestment and ensure that society always directs its resources towards projects that make economic sense.
interest rates are not just a function of risk it is a function of supply and demand of savings, that is the supply of deferred consumption and the demand for those very same resources and labor. any other system will be desasterous including our current system of fed central banking
If you really, really think about it, supply and demand are built into the risk. You have to know economics to understand that. I think you're a bright guy for bringing this up but please consider what I am saying.
your right to attack fractional reserve banking, however the only way to avoid mass mal investment is by allowing the total borrowing of funds to be limited by the supply of funds (which is the supply of unclaimed resources and labor-hence savings which are deferred consumption- which makes those resources and labor available for the borrowers to use). anyother system will by definition create malinvestment because it allows the planning and claims for labor and resources that do not exist.
when you say that its good for only the investments that make economic sense to take place you are correct, however if interest rates are not a function of supply and demand (risk is in the micro sense for who gets the funds, but the total coordination of getting the saved funds to borrowers have to be a function of total supply and demand) then it will make economic sense at the time to start investing in things that cannot possible be completed, and thats the problem with the fed distortions
your smoking crack dude, who your kidding. gold always was money. wake up. money worth shit. welcome to the new world order. I want to meet you, you fool.
fiat isnt money and you will find that out pretty quick. I like how someone can look at gold which is a physical thing and has been used as money for thousands of years without a single second of it not being money, and say that gold isnt money, the baffling part is how these same people who are apparently not convinced of golds history and competence as money are somehow convinced that a piece of paper with a number on it and a digit in a computer screen is money lol. fiat has always collapsed
The clearest way for you to find out gold isn't money is for you to have money in it and have it crash hard. The market will teach you what you're too stupid to figure out ahead of time.
lol ok, I guess ill take the risk that gold isnt gonna be money on this gereration out of the past few hundred, and I guess youll take the risk that fiat will not be used as money like it has hundreds of times throughout its short history lol. I like my risk better than yours dick.
This is so stupid. There's no reason to change the currency. Anyone who wants gold or silver money can just buy it. If the inflation is going to crash like he says it is, the capital gains taxes will not make gold or silver bad investments.
But, if gold or silver are bought within 401s or IRAs, there'll be no taxes until the money is withdrawn.
the currency has to be changed for the new world order. its about power dick wake up. once the currency is changed you control the global market which control the world period. its all power grab. wake up dope.
Right stupid. Your bizarre, paranoid take on the near future will not pan out. The dollar will be the reserve currency for the foreseeable future.
Wow. We finally get a major recession and little pansies like you panic. The Great Depression was far worse and there was no dollar crisis, despite the national debt being 102% of GDP by the end of WW2.
I'm sure you will not disagree that we need competition of currencies... Why cant I go into Best Buy and buy a tv with a ounce of gold? Why not euros?
Look what the government did to the Liberty dollar.. It was a silver round.. The government crushed it because our legal tender laws bind us to federal reserve notes.. The fed is a monopoly.. If you use anything else, you go to jail..
Why change currency when you can just buy gold or Euros if you want? In fact, sin eyou think the rest of us are wrong, you should expect to make a lot more money by buying these yourself within the current system.
I predict very slow progress in the second derivative of growth for 3 years. The yield curve is almost completely flat going out 3 years, and still historically flat going out to 10. TIps spreads are still low and futures prices are still depressed. Nominal GDP is only at about 2% when it should be at 5% for a rapid recovery.
So, the market doesn't expect inflation and also doesn't expect that enough will be done to faciliate much growth. Buy commodities now, except for gold.
the krug-man and those like him represent a failed and disastrous economic system. kinda like the scientists involved in Climategate they have constructed a consensus amongst themselves. the krug-man receiving a nobel peace prize should have sent a signal to you Keynesianites, but you never learn.
What a surprise. You haven't been reading Krugman's columns. Krugman has criticized US economic policy for 10-12 years.
And have you read Keynes or examined the decades of research? What about monetarism? Do you even know what monetarism is? It is the primary paradigm that competes with Keynesianism. You're just ignorant.
If the US economic system is failed, then I guess you don't recognize success. Tell me, which systems in the world now haven't failed, based on your view? How many are sucessful?
Almost every economist agrees with Krugman. Of course, that's the difference between being a bachelors level stock broker and a PhD, Noble economist. Sure, PhD and Nobel don't automatically make Krugman right, but Schiff's ideas just don't make sense.
For example, Schiff says that no one is smart enough to beat th emarket when it comes to monetary policy, yet he thinks he knows more than the market on the dollar, for example. He also thinks he knows more about gold, silver, and stocks,
He's also been spot on about the financial collapse and wrote a whole book about what would happen in detail, while Krugman never even saw it coming.
To be a priest you have to spend about 5 years in college, but what they learn is total bullshit. I'm afraid its no different when it comes to Keynesian economics.
When did you read his General Theory? Most of you anti-Keynesians have never even read Keynes or examined any research meant to address his ideas. Also, apparently so many of you are so ignorant you don't even talk about monetarism, which is a school exemplified by Milton Friedman. Have you read his Monetary History of the US?
its seems you dont know nothing about the market yourself. peter is right on the money since 2006. your just like the rest of them dumasses. your worthless.
sure. I know nothing about the market, yet my rates of return vastly exceed his. I was dollar heavy in summer of '08 while the rest of you clowns were worried about inflation. I saw that nGDP was below 5%, and coupled with forward-looking indicators like interest rates and futures, I saw a very bad economy for a few years. Schiff was dead wrong about decoupling, but I thought that if the US sneezedm the whole world would get a cold. I was obviously right, and the dollar went up 31% during
the crisis. So, with a much more valuable dollar, I bought up assets at historic lows and have profitted handsomely to say the least.
Schiff lost a huge amount of money last year. He brags about being up 70%, but that still doesn't come close to making up for his tremendous losses last year. He's a fool and he'll flush you right down the toilet with him.
Gold is going to have a huge correction, by the way.
I watched plenty of Krugman interviews. For what I've learnt, even Keynes would have been against the amount of bailouts that have occured.
Schiff was wrong because he didn't bet on the government and FED being dumb enough to print so much money and give it to the failures at such a huge level. It has propped up the bubble, so give it a couple of years and it'll collapse and they won't be able to prop it up again. The dollar is down against gold and so is the Dow
yes most economist do agree with krugman, and those same economist didnt see a bubble, they didnt see the depression, they also agreed with bernake when he said that house prices we not gona fall,and when he said that the economy was looking very strong right before the collapse.they also agreed with paulson and barney frank and chris dodd when they said that the financial system was very strong and sound again right before the collapse.krugman is helpful because you can bet on the opposite
@Zeldovich Economics is my subject. I disagree with Krugman on the bailouts. Bailouts cant work. Dont compare Japan as they had completely different circumstances. What the fuck does a PHD mean? Look at Bernanke LULZ.
which people in the world disagree with schiff, you dont know what the fuck your talking about. thats why all the countries in the world are buying gold silver. waiting for the dollar to crash. wake the fuk up jerk..
My rate of return is much better than his and I retired at the end of last year at age 32. So, if that means I don't know what I'm talking about, then I'm happy being ignorant! lmao
"little" as in comprehensive and sensible regulatory laws. all gov can do is provide a fair playing field for businesses to thrive. the only religion is see is you worshiping the Fiat Currency which is totally based on FAITH. you obviously do not possess enough economic or historical knowledge and i am not going to play your professor. you can start to educate yourself some more by reading Gene Callahan's "Economics for Real People".
a dollar bill costs 3.6 cents to produce no matter what its printed value is. How can anyone claim that a $100 bill is worth 100x more than a $1 bill when they cost the same amount of effort to produce. Gold has been currency for 6000 years, paper money continually fails because you cannot have something represent value that has no value itself.
our most stable economic growth was 1800-1900s....under a gold standard. We had far less bubbles and crashes in that time. The panics that happened during that time were because of fractional reserve banking, not a gold standard. Funny how since 1913 the dollar has lost 96% of its purchasing power, and you say our standard of living went up?
Wrong. It was blind adherence to that archaic commodity that caused the Great Depression. The countries that devalued their currencies did much better. Read Friedman's Monetary History of the US.
you are not a fan of Keynesian economics but believe in their primary cornerstone: that govt can stimulate the economy?
The govt cant stimulate anything they take from the economy to perform their functions. How is taking X dollars in taxes from the productive sector and giving it to some other sector help the entire economy?
you are confusing the economic expansion of the 50s with the erroneous correlation with the GD. 50s was prosperous because of the 2/3 reduction in govt spending, 1/3 reduction in taxes, the huge savings from citizens because of the lack of consumer goods in the post WW2 america
how you tied this to the great depression is beyond me
Funny how the standard of living has been constantly eroding the middle class since the 1960s, the middle class standard of living has been falling.
It's very simple. Without the artifical demend caused by WW2 and the pent up demand after, the US would've probably still been in the Great Depression.
And fiat currency has always failed. Always. You talk about history, you need to study. Under a true free market "devoid" of a central bank, currency has value and is backed by something of value. If currency doesn't need backing why work? Why not just print money?
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value -- zero. Voltaire
Let me get this straight, you prefer a program that employs methods that have repeatedly failed in their intent over a market free from overpowering manipulations that has rarely even been attempted? And you prefer this even given the history that the closest approximation to a free market resulted in the greatest period of expansion and wealth for all classes of citizen in the US.
You sir, have marked yourself an enemy of prosperity.
the "market" are people conducting business with little gov intervention. in a real sound money market financial products like credit default swaps, derivatives, MBS etc would have never existed. they only can exist with gov participation and a printing press. thats the point.
folks, once the USA defaults on their loans our creditor nations (europe, china, russia, india etc) will be mailing YOU (the us citizen) invoices to your home. get ready folks. when you refuse to pay the International Court will garnish your checks.
and Keynesian economics is.. what... based on reality? this is all Ivy League schools teach and its no wonder these ivy league presidents continue to destroy this country. you obviously do not understand Sound Money and are probably not smart enough to understand it either. we have to brake free from the chain of the US printing press and the Federal Reserve or are you satisfied with being plugged into the establishment's status quo?
jaguar is an idiot. The Great Depression resulted in the biggest economic expansion and living standards? We wasted over a decade of progress just like the Japanese did in the 1990s. The industrial revolution was biggest economic expansion for America, and we were on a gold standard at that time.
You cannot have something that has no intrinsic value represent something that has value.
No kidding they have called for a gold standard as PART of a program to reform out of control gov spending.
And the piece about New Deal success, that was a jolly good joke. Demonstrably the New Deal was a failure and for clear discernible reasons. It displaced capital from sustainable and productive activity to activities that proactively destroyed capital and the good that can be done with capital resources.
Crisis is in the eye of the beholder. How is limiting spending to what you have bad?
What sustainable and productive activity? When the New Deal started, unemployment was 25% and 1/3 of all banks had failed. Farmers had crops rotting in the fields and new vagrants roamed around the west aimlessly seeking employment. You're an idiot.
UNemployment fell as soon as Roosevelt started devaluing the dollar in '33. By '34, it was down to 17%. He just didn't devalue enough. He should've listened to Melon more.
RedInvadesBlue(dot)com
pjallen823 2 years ago
Comment removed
dino01 2 years ago
Unite us Ron Paul and Peter Schiff. You have great support in NY.
3daughterskillme 2 years ago
my 2010 predictions - dollar dropped as world reserve currency, stock crash in spring or summer. $8k federal tax credit welfare ends 4/30, the housing market will dry up and added to the typical summer down, will be very bad. Commercial real estate will start to decline, but the bottom probably wont drop out until 2011. Unemplymnt will hit 14% by fall. There will be 2+ successful terror attacks, the Marxists will keep the Patriot act, try for stimulus 2, and more freedom sucking legislation. imo
BamaKattt 2 years ago
For eample,
ideas.repec org/p/cep/cepdps/dp0484html
Yeah, I'm such a troll for asking you a question about your own professed field and then knowing more about it than you do. lmao
Zeldovich 2 years ago
unemployment is a lowsy figure to judge economic recovery on. Hell unemployment was low during WW2, but I'd like to see people calling a world war some kind of economic recovery. Not to mention govt counted the 3-4 million drafted into the military as "employed"
How about we have 50% of the people dig a ditch during the day, and at night the other 50% refill that ditch. Hey 100%, the economy must be good?
"He didnt devalue the $ enough" You cant possibly be serious with that statement.
ForTehNguyen 2 years ago
none of which were contributed to low interest rates and fiat currency which is the hallmark of the far more devastating 20th century panics. 19th century panics were due to collapse of commodity prices and the practice of fractional reserve banking, not a gold standard. They were more localized too and not worldwide reaching. 20th century panics are far more damaging because of fiat money, arbitrary interest rates, and the joke of Keynesian economics that politicians use to try to fix them.
ForTehNguyen 2 years ago
2000-2009, commodities have outperformed the stock market by a ton. Gold/Dow ratio from 2000-2009 plummets due to the massive money printing of that decade.
Stock market can't even come close to golds performance during this decade even enduring through the 2007-2008 stock market collapse.
ForTehNguyen 2 years ago
Yes and those who think all big government programs are wrong are idiots. They should never get a government-subsidized vaccine, by the way. None of these fools should get flu shots.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
Finally something we can agree on.
Only a fool would get the government sponsored flu vaccine. Please tell us the outcome of your venture into purposely injecting yourself with Squalene turns out.
maskedphrogg 2 years ago
Urban sprawl and housing development, eh? Tell me, why do you think Zipf's law seems to fit the data well for the clustering of development that makes up cities?
Zeldovich 2 years ago
Peter Schiff is an idiot. He correctly saw the economic meltdown coming and then stupidly proceeded to invest such that he lost 70% of his portfolio. That is like a physician correctly diagnosing a patient with heart disease and then stupidly prescribing flu medication. What a dumb douchebag!!!
shahen13 2 years ago
Inflation is already here...And growing... Go to the food store!!!!
icabodeeb 2 years ago 3
If you are a goldbug, be sure NOT to buy it on margin. Leverage is very bad when buying a non-cash flowing asset. The short term variance can wipe out your equity and trigger a margin call. Don't borrow currency to buy commodities, because the commodity price won't rise soon enough or steady enough to cover your risk. Just pay all cash to preserve your purchasing power in anticipation of inflation. Beware capital gains taxation and govt confiscation.
Two cents worth. Your mileage may vary.
xtarka 2 years ago 3
All you fools who think the dollar is on a long term rebound against precious metals are about to see just how wrong you are. It's difficult to imagine being wrong about something more important than this, since keeping your assets in dollar-denominated assets means you'll be massacred as the dollar downgrade continues. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac borrowing, the third (so far) GMAC bailout, those who think the dollar is on the uptrend deserve destitution!
michaelandolga 2 years ago
@michaelandolga
Please sell me your dollars.
Nuanceqwest 2 years ago
Are you suggesting that Hank Paulson nationalized the banks because they were doing great and it as a long aspired government ambition? I believe he reluctantly saved the banking system from complete failure. People need to think stopping of stimulus as stimuls, rather its purely life support.
marktcoleman 2 years ago
that's weird about taxing gold, here in Vancouver I don't have to report anything under 3000 dollars so I never sell more than 2 oz at a time.
trevormac77 2 years ago
sounds like someone holding their nose and imitating peter imo
userofnames 2 years ago
Inflation is the increase in the money supply or credit. We are at record levels of inflation and the trend is not changing. Rising prices are a side effect of inflation, and just because it hasn't been fully realized yet does not mean we don't have inflation or that the prices will not rise. Historically, without exception, when a currency has been inflated to the levels we have in the U.S., that currency has failed. Without exception.
Ncturnal 2 years ago
In a gold standard, if the gold is not in supply with the max amount of dollars printed for a gold standard, then prices must go down (the currency would gain small value). The problem is not that the gold standard doesn't work, it's that the Federal Reserve and Treasury didn't follow the gold standard while we had it towards the end. They printed too much currency vs what the government owned in gold.
residentzombie 2 years ago
Question for the Deflationists...
If the collapse of the derivitives can cause massive deflation then shouldn't the creation of that market have caused hyperinflation?
thane17 2 years ago
thane17, the 2000-2007 period saw double digit price inflation if you include housing in CPI(which you should).
Credit and bank deposits spend in just the same way as federal reserve paper notes. Credit is collapsing, savings and income is falling due to rising unemployment. Price inflation comes from more purchasing power chasing a given quantity of good.
Price inflation will eventually come from debt monetization but barring Zimbabwe style printing it's not comming soon.
soylentgreenb 2 years ago
Whatever. Krugman, Rougini, Rogoff, Roach, Shiller, Stiglitz, and Feldstein all predicted the housing bubble would burst. Everyone knew there was a bubble. You're just stupid.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
That's .057% of GDP and you're getting your panties in a bunch over it. lmao
Zeldovich 2 years ago
Bring back the Greenback.
rayme4raw 2 years ago
If you void a contract between a person with real equity (the house) and a fraud based money creation scheme such as bank-loans one might consider it justice.
loaning money they don't have, risk-free, at a 1:9 ratio, with interest! seems to be the best business i the world.
Anyone who has ever travelled knows that the best looking building in town is usually of some bank..
superdiza 2 years ago
If he'll pledge to get us out of "NAFTA" and start enforcing our immigration laws I'd vote for him!
popeye1250 2 years ago 3
We need someone like Peter Schiff in Congess to educate the Wall St. lapdogs who currently are in contol. Ron Paul needs his help. Good job as always Mr. Schiff.
ronheri 2 years ago 2
You did a lot better than Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and Paul Krugman. I'm not even an economist, but I have read many books on economics and watched countless hours of videos, read many articles, followed blogs and I live in the real world. So, perhaps that makes me more qualified than some of the professional economists.
Seano71 2 years ago 3
Guys I think that we should not be so judgemental to other opinions as its divisive and unproductive.
Neither Schiff nor anyone commentating here can state that his opinions are empirical or prophetic.
For me the all or nothing mindset (All Commodities or All Stocks) is a flawed tact.
I'm trying my best to have as many bases covered as possible (Gold, Silver, Cash, food, Guns & Ammo, Debt free farm land and real estate) as I prefer tangible assets to the uncertainty of the stock trade.
seekerofgod7777777 2 years ago
So now we got a gold bubble this is just all becoming a fucked up joke, i think i'll stick with growing more food as thats the only thing that will matter soon.
realkingkado 2 years ago
For those of you who think gold is in a bubble, you are living in a fantasy world. Real estate was a bubble because everyone got in it and mortgage brokers approved any asshole to be pre approved for a mortgage. Gold however, requires capital to purchase it, REAL MONEY, and very few people own gold. Fact #2, Central Banks have historically been SELLERS of gold, NOW THEY ARE BUYERS..LOOK AROUND YOU, EVERY COUNTRY IS LOADING UP ON GOLD...NOT EVEN CLOSE TO A BUBBLE !! THE US DOLLAR IS HISTORY.
TheNRA4ever 2 years ago 2
The Golden Rule. He who has All The Gold Rules! I say he who can shoot the fastest and accurate using the least amount of AMO WILL RULE. Good Luck Schiff.
BablyonsKing 2 years ago
i love it when people call gold a bubble but they didn't see the housing bubble themselves
ForTehNguyen 2 years ago
Everyone saw the housing bubble. I have no idea what you're talking about. maybe you didn't see it bursting.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
Don't you think you should be posting this drivel on the CNBC channel or something?? People listen to Shiff to get away from mainstream media parrots.
guysmyly 2 years ago
Gold can only be a bubble if the majority of people see it as an asset. I think only 1 out of every 2000 people even know what the price of gold currently is, so it's not anywhere close to being a bubble.
rayme4raw 2 years ago
lmao It doesn't take a majority of people. You start with the # of buyers X the average purchase amount ioan you apply this in a difference of weighted average model for both expected gains and costs. You have no idea what you're talking about. lmao
Zeldovich 2 years ago
A bubble is when the general public gets involved, yes gold is going up but govts around the world are devaluing their currencies by printing so much fiat money. The average person is still unaware of gold unlike the housing market. But gold is not an investment, it doesn't yield dividends or equity, it's a store of wealth, as govts devalue paper money, it takes more paper money to buy an ounce of gold.
rayme4raw 2 years ago
How much devaluation is occurring in each currency and what are the implications for domestic inflation and exchange values for each? lol
You talk about gold going up due to devaluation, yet how much devaluation can support the present gold price? Did you ever even think to check the numbers?
Besides, devaluation can keep a currency more valuable in the longrun by maintaining money velocity and hence economic growth and employment.
lmao
Zeldovich 2 years ago
I know that the quatity of money is very important. Inflation is the increase in the money supply and credit. With the destruction of so much credit, the increase in the money supply has not been enough to off set that destruction. But the increase in the $ supply has gone to the top 1st. I think that the lack of transparency is a key issue. GATA just filed a suit against the Fed Res trying to figure out how they've been manipulating the gold prices down.
rayme4raw 2 years ago
@rayme4raw
The Gold frenzy has arrived and past. Not sure we will take out 1200.
You dont need a bubble mania for 5 years now. we have already depleted credit significantly.
The USD is king
Nuanceqwest 2 years ago
Is that why Indian, Iran, China and many other nations are buying so much gold?
Seano71 2 years ago
@Seano71
OK suit yourself buddy. I think we will see 650 in gold in the next 3 years.
Nuanceqwest 2 years ago
How buddie? Nations are printing so much money that its becoming worthless and that would mean the only sure way to preserve wealth is through precious metals. Eventually it'll be a bubble, but its nowhere near that yet
Seano71 2 years ago
@Seano71
They havent printed nearly close to enough to cover the destruction of credit.
Nuanceqwest 2 years ago
Nobody knows how much has been printed, we won't know until months, years later when prices rise as a result. Regardless, there will be heavy inflation so its just a matter of how much precious metals will rise. If we have a run and calls on silver derivatives the insider trading will be exposed and people will realised how rare the metal actually is above ground and it will for a short period of time be worth more than gold. That's when you sell your physical silver
Seano71 2 years ago
@Seano71
Ok buddy. Keep your youtube account opened and I will contact you on a regular basis hopefully you will get out of the zone that you are in.
Nuanceqwest 2 years ago
Can you tell me on reason not to invest in silver?
Seano71 2 years ago
@Seano71
The leverage. If there was no leverage in Silver, I would be starting my own silver website, blog, fanclub, company, party
just like most folk.
Nuanceqwest 2 years ago
Look at it this way, in the Earth's crust its 16 times more abundant than gold yet the price is 1/65th that of gold right now. Throughout history silver has always been 1/16th the price of gold. Now its used heavily in industry and in danger of going extinct according to the US Geological Society. Of course it won't go extinct, but the price will rise to a level where it'll be worthwhile recycling like gold. Look what happened to Rhodium
Seano71 2 years ago
@Seano71
Next 3 years we see Gold below 650 and Silver below $5.
Did you know they had a perfectly logical reason why you could be a house with a tulip in 1650 Holland. There was also going to be no oil next week when it hit $140/barrel.
The madness will never end, never it is what people do.
Nuanceqwest 2 years ago
It's really undervalued, no.
rayme4raw 2 years ago
How much of a bounce did gold get each time a central bank bought some? lol not much
Zeldovich 2 years ago
LOL, gold is a store of wealth, with vast money printing going on now until the USD collapses, gold will reach $3K to $5K an ounce.
rayme4raw 2 years ago
if the usd really collapses, i most think thet we will see gold 15000$... or even higher
vince4782 2 years ago
Maybe, Peter Schiff is talking about the devaluation of the USD so if it collapses then gold can go much higher. I have the strong suspicion that the dollar will collapse as the reserve currency in 2010. I could be wrong, but the USDA is telling us that we have a surplus of food when that's not the case. Other countries could appreciate their currencies in order to attract food imports and it would result in the collapse of the USD as reserve currency.
rayme4raw 2 years ago
Did you know that a US home was also a "store of wealth"?
Anyway. rest my case. No more from me.
Nuanceqwest 2 years ago
The US home is a store of wealth. That was the propaganda, now revealed to everyone that a home is not a store of wealth. I like Peter Schiff who said that a home is a utility. The author of Rich Dad Poor Dad said that a home is a liability (takes money out of your pocket) and is only an asset for the bank who makes money from interest you pay on your mortgage. I never bought a house, I always saw too much hidden expenses that my salary wouldn't cover easily.
rayme4raw 2 years ago
People thought that housing prices would go up forever and it was the best investment you could make. But it was a gov't mandated bubble. If you think about it, there is no reason why your house should appreciate in value, It should depreciate, just like a used car does.
dleksen 2 years ago
In a way, yes, but land won't go down in value as the population increases and a home can be fixed up to increase it's value. It depreciates in the fact that you have to spend money fixing it up in order for it to retain it's value.
rayme4raw 2 years ago
I have personally researched housing prices through the years and I have noticed that the value of a house remains constant in relationship to the rate of inflation.
I would agree though that houses should somewhat depreciate. Though scarity of Land will appreciate the overall value.
Since 1970 inflation has gone up about 5.45% on average per year.
dusternm 2 years ago
That is why bailouts are inevitable and when social security kicks in for the baby boomers and state bailouts simutaniously, then will be the currency crisis
krillin876 2 years ago
I have the same feeling as peter about the state bailouts. I live here in Ny on Long Island and my parents are in real estate sales. The only people able to buy are govnt worker ( teachers, cops,fire, healthcare). And they have contract salaries with increases, how can the private sector catch up?
krillin876 2 years ago
Good interview, as always. The next "Peter Schiff was right" video is going to have to be 2 hrs long to include all of the accurate sound bites.
JessicaBelle81 2 years ago 2
There is alot less Silver peter!..Silver is needed Gold is horded
rollinglibs101 2 years ago 2
Gold will begin a protracted correction soon, if it hasn't already. Interest rates, TIPs spreads, nominal GDP growth, etc. indicate that inflation is expected to remain extremely low for at least another few years, as will economic growth. Hence, the demand for gold used in industry and jewelry will remain low, as will demand for gold as an inflation hedge.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
This will only leave the gold bugs trying to hedge against total economic collapse, catastrophic civil unrest, and/or who knows what else.
Gold is much pricier than it was in the summer of 2008, after a considerable run up in commodities. Sometime over the next few years even many of the gold bugs will begin to relax and gold will find its way back to trend.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
A lot of "Gold bugs" tend to be money historians who realize that the shelf life of free floating fiat currencies is around 40 years and Nixon closed the gold window in 1971. Gold's been money for 6000 years, paper money is just another science experiment doomed to fail.
Frankenpalin 2 years ago 5
Your position is ridiculus. First, politicians abandon the gold standard when they want to. Notice that there's no country on the gold standard now.
Second, if you want gold, just buy it for yourself.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
Can you read ? I just said that Nixon closed the gold window in 1971
Notice what's happened to the intrinsic value of paper currency since that happened ? The dollar's lost 97% of it's value in the last 100 years but most of that has happened since 1971
Frankenpalin 2 years ago
Any country can choose to be on the gold standard, stupid. Not one does.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
hah! Now answer the question Why?
Why do nations choose to not fix the value of money in a sound commodity?
Easy, so they can inflate money supply at will to fund projects they can't afford.
And you have the temerity to call others stupid. From your earlier comments I see you don't have a clear understanding of what inflation refers to.
maskedphrogg 2 years ago
Where did you get your degree in the history of monetary systems?
Zeldovich 2 years ago
Gold has been in a bull market for 10 years now, it has outperformed every single asset class and it's all time high inflation adjusted price is $2300/ounce.
It isn't even close to being a bubble yet, just ask the central bankers, they're now net buyers.
Frankenpalin 2 years ago 2
Sure. So, despite the fact that the market expects very little inflation or industrial or retail demand for gold, you think these prices are sustainable. Gold is much higher now than during inflationary summer of last year.
Finally, if you look at a chart of recent gold prices, they are rising at a prima facie too high a rate. The slop is now close to infinite , meaning demand is getting very close to infinite versus supply. Obviously, this growth in demand can't last much longer.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
If the markets didn't expect inflation, then why is gold in a bull market? I don't know what you mean by "recent" prices, but if you use the "start point/end point" trick with a chart, I guess you could argue that the "recent" trend can't continue. Personally I see nothing weird about the charts.
The current environment is inflationary as well. Prices fell for a few months, but have been rising ever since. Soon it will be shown even in the year-to-year numbers.
Xasew 2 years ago
Well, look at interest rates, Tips spreads, and futures prices. The numbers don't lie. Check Bloomberg and you'll see that interest rates are pretty flat and near historic lows going out to three years and only at about 4.5% ten years out. Is that evidence for inflationary expectations? Of course not. It's only the stupid gold bugs driving speculative demand and the crash will come very soon.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
a huge majority of people arent even purchasing gold or just clueless on gold yet its called a bubble?
Inflation low? lol the CPI the govt uses is some BS manipulated number that doesnt include the two things that shoot up first during inflation...food and energy because "its too volatile" The govt has every reason to lie about the CPI to keep Social Security and other entitlement checks lower than what they really need to be. Seniors are getting robbed blind this way.
ForTehNguyen 2 years ago
Read above and look at a recent chart. The graph for gold prices is almost exactly vertical. You think that rate of demand can continue? It's physically impossible.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
CPI is for fools. The fact that you mention it lets me know you know nothing about economics. Serious people use the GDP deflator. You instant Peter Schiff economists annoy people who actually understand economics and investing. Schiff's record over the past year is disasterous.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
Zeldo
Ive heard commentators from the Schiff way of thinking describe Bernanke and company as 1936 dinosaurs, because to apply policies that pertained to the 36 economy to the present one is an obvious mistake.
You know that even now the actual unemployment figures are hard to ascertain for the great depression as it is to the currant recession as well.
Many are stating that as far a percentages go, the figures are on parity with 1936 figures,
seekerofgod7777777 2 years ago
AGain with your simplistic thinking. It's not about the number of investors. You have to look at the average amount invested versus alternative investments. A change in demand can onlyget so steep before approaching infinite slope, which, of course, is impossible.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
jag, Friedman was right about very many things. He advocated the raisng interest rates to smother the high inflation of the 70s and early 80s. It seems obvious today,but wasn't then. He also favored creating new money to fight recessions. Only when he was very old and maybe senile did he want to end the Fed.
In his Monetary History of the US, Friedman layed out his case against the Fed, claiming they allowed the money supply to fall by 33%., causing the Great Depression. This is accepted
Zeldovich 2 years ago
Priests go to college for 5 years and learn bullshit. Looks like economists do likewise. Anyone living in the real world knows more than these so called experts
Seano71 2 years ago
I don't think Paul is working for the system, but I do think he's unintentionally working for economic ruin.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
What's the most you can bet? Can you do $10,000? We can fax the appropriate paperwork, have it notarized, and even if not enforceable, at least I have something to hang on my wall if you bum out. I'm willing to go for much more than $10,000. Put your money where your mouth is.
Message me privately if you wanna man up.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
@Zeldovich the Austrian Economic Model
is the closest thing to perfection in a capitalist system, even as it relates to savings and investment also recession and inflation. What is your best idea of an Economy based upon?
genusrightwingus 2 years ago
The Austrian model is a joke. It isn't even internally consistent.
For example, Austrians claim that low interest rates cause capital investment to shift further into the future, causing temporal malinvestment of capital. Yet, when interest rates cause the money supply to expand beyond that needed to maintain velocity at full employment, inflation results, which leads to higher interest rates. It just doesn't make sense.
You think you're smarter than real economists, but you aren't.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
@Zeldovich why not gold? after all is anything better than "the gold standard"?
genusrightwingus 2 years ago
Gold is not money. It has its own supply and demand dynamics. Gold is in a huge bubble right now and it'll burst soon if it hasn't started already.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
@Zeldovich in 1929 you could walk into the best mens store in NYC and buy a 3 piece suit, walk across the street and buy a steak dinner with your change( all from a $20.00 gold piece). Today you can still do that with that same $20.00 gold piece.
genusrightwingus 2 years ago 2
If that's true now, was it true 6 months ago when the gold price was much lower? At best, it's a coincidence.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
@Zeldovich There are fluctuations, thats the key to investing. Timing is everything!
genusrightwingus 2 years ago
No fool, that has ALWAYS been true. Every year since @ least the turn of the century (1900) it has been true. Gold retains value. Gold retains buying power. That gold piece has exceeded it's face value in proportion to the rate the dollar supply has been inflated.
maskedphrogg 2 years ago
at all times and under any circumstances, gold is money
that's why fighter pilots are given 100 year old 1/4 ounce gold sovereigns in their survival equipment
Frankenpalin 2 years ago 2
This is the reason real economists pay no attention to the Austrians. They're just ignorant, fringe nuts.
Visit the Mises Institute website and see how many economists they have on staff. They have almost none. There's Robery Murphy and maybe one other one.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
Ron Paul knows nothing about economics and only other know-nothings think he knows anything.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
Ron Paul doesn't claim to be an economist, he claims to subscribe to the Austrian School and he understands it very well. Obviously you disagree with Austrian theories but prefer to throw around insults instead of deal with Austrian arguments.
strongbadXCP 2 years ago
I've dealt with Austrian positions if you'd actually read my posts numbnuts.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
Jaquar, even a moderate and more reasonable position like yours is incomprehensible to these Schiff worshipers. They think they've learned all there is to know about economics by watching this clown on TV over the last year or so. They are too stupid to see how ignorant they are. All they have is assumptions and nothing else.
Schiff always expects economic disaster. He's been talking about it for 20-25 years. IF you say you expect it to rain everyday for a year, you'll be right attimes
Zeldovich 2 years ago
i hate capital gains and Inheritance tax how unjust ,,,,, im sick of all the bullshit ,,,,, silver is my hope ,,, it's going up regardless of monetary demand . the IMF has alot of gold and could still control the market , if only every1 knew how it works , to many people watching tv ,, a whole nation of indoctrinated thinkers , try wake some1 up and they run kicking and screaming back to their little bubble they live inn. Banks our only BIG cause WE let them get big, time for counter evolution
rich232399 2 years ago
Silver might be okay for a while, but gold is finished. Don't believe the idiots. Get a portfolio that is well balanced with a variety of commodities, foreign and domestic stocks, and real estate (REITs). Putting too many eggs in one box is just stupid.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
Why should anybody take your advice ? You've been wrong for the last 10 years.
Frankenpalin 2 years ago
lol I've been wrong for the last 10 years? lmao I don't recall you seeing my portfolio. What an idiot. lmao
You literally just parroted a Schiff/Rgoers line meant to refer to Geithner or Bernanke and applied it to me! Brilliant! lmao
Zeldovich 2 years ago
I was talking about gold you fucking idiot
Frankenpalin 2 years ago
@Zeldovich: continue worshiping the green tainted IOUs. just make sure you have a wagon ready to schlep billions of it around to the grocery store.
betodesign101 2 years ago
IOUs? Wow, you really have no idea what you're talking about. Bonds and notes are IOUs and our debt is nowhere near a record high. Even if it were significantly higher than the record, we'd still be fine.
There will be no hyper-inflation and anyway and when even you idiot gold bugs realize that, gold will take a dive back to trend. I hope you're all heavily invested in gold so I can laugh at your dead ingnorant asses after your broke.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
This has been flagged as spam show
i rest my case.
betodesign101 2 years ago
Governments should be able to issue their own debt-free notes and banks should just store and lend. No fractional reserve banking. All savings would then fund future investments and only the market would dictate interest rates (based on risk). This is the only way to avoid malinvestment and ensure that society always directs its resources towards projects that make economic sense.
jgpenate 2 years ago
interest rates are not just a function of risk it is a function of supply and demand of savings, that is the supply of deferred consumption and the demand for those very same resources and labor. any other system will be desasterous including our current system of fed central banking
slickbtk 2 years ago
If you really, really think about it, supply and demand are built into the risk. You have to know economics to understand that. I think you're a bright guy for bringing this up but please consider what I am saying.
jgpenate 2 years ago
your right to attack fractional reserve banking, however the only way to avoid mass mal investment is by allowing the total borrowing of funds to be limited by the supply of funds (which is the supply of unclaimed resources and labor-hence savings which are deferred consumption- which makes those resources and labor available for the borrowers to use). anyother system will by definition create malinvestment because it allows the planning and claims for labor and resources that do not exist.
slickbtk 2 years ago
when you say that its good for only the investments that make economic sense to take place you are correct, however if interest rates are not a function of supply and demand (risk is in the micro sense for who gets the funds, but the total coordination of getting the saved funds to borrowers have to be a function of total supply and demand) then it will make economic sense at the time to start investing in things that cannot possible be completed, and thats the problem with the fed distortions
slickbtk 2 years ago 2
Gold is gonna crash hard. Speculation is the primary factor in the price runup and the price will return to trend withn the next few years.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
your smoking crack dude, who your kidding. gold always was money. wake up. money worth shit. welcome to the new world order. I want to meet you, you fool.
omapps 2 years ago
Gold isn't money and you'll find that out very quickly. I warned you.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
fiat isnt money and you will find that out pretty quick. I like how someone can look at gold which is a physical thing and has been used as money for thousands of years without a single second of it not being money, and say that gold isnt money, the baffling part is how these same people who are apparently not convinced of golds history and competence as money are somehow convinced that a piece of paper with a number on it and a digit in a computer screen is money lol. fiat has always collapsed
slickbtk 2 years ago
The clearest way for you to find out gold isn't money is for you to have money in it and have it crash hard. The market will teach you what you're too stupid to figure out ahead of time.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
you are going to get burned bud.
murrchops 2 years ago
lol ok, I guess ill take the risk that gold isnt gonna be money on this gereration out of the past few hundred, and I guess youll take the risk that fiat will not be used as money like it has hundreds of times throughout its short history lol. I like my risk better than yours dick.
slickbtk 2 years ago
This is so stupid. There's no reason to change the currency. Anyone who wants gold or silver money can just buy it. If the inflation is going to crash like he says it is, the capital gains taxes will not make gold or silver bad investments.
But, if gold or silver are bought within 401s or IRAs, there'll be no taxes until the money is withdrawn.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
the currency has to be changed for the new world order. its about power dick wake up. once the currency is changed you control the global market which control the world period. its all power grab. wake up dope.
omapps 2 years ago
Right stupid. Your bizarre, paranoid take on the near future will not pan out. The dollar will be the reserve currency for the foreseeable future.
Wow. We finally get a major recession and little pansies like you panic. The Great Depression was far worse and there was no dollar crisis, despite the national debt being 102% of GDP by the end of WW2.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
@Zeldovich
I'm sure you will not disagree that we need competition of currencies... Why cant I go into Best Buy and buy a tv with a ounce of gold? Why not euros?
Look what the government did to the Liberty dollar.. It was a silver round.. The government crushed it because our legal tender laws bind us to federal reserve notes.. The fed is a monopoly.. If you use anything else, you go to jail..
vdubs4life1964 2 years ago 2
Why change currency when you can just buy gold or Euros if you want? In fact, sin eyou think the rest of us are wrong, you should expect to make a lot more money by buying these yourself within the current system.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
right, I am buying silver...
And it doesnt matter if I think you are wrong.. I'm just a guy on the internet.. You decide your own fate..
Anything can be money.. Food, ammunition, seeds, cigarettes, gold, diamonds, ....
vdubs4life1964 2 years ago
In extreme circumstances, yes, any of those things can function as money, but we won't face extreme circumstances like those.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
you dont know that for sure... Nobody knows exactly what the future holds.. We all speculate based off history and past trends..
What are your predictions?
vdubs4life1964 2 years ago
I predict very slow progress in the second derivative of growth for 3 years. The yield curve is almost completely flat going out 3 years, and still historically flat going out to 10. TIps spreads are still low and futures prices are still depressed. Nominal GDP is only at about 2% when it should be at 5% for a rapid recovery.
So, the market doesn't expect inflation and also doesn't expect that enough will be done to faciliate much growth. Buy commodities now, except for gold.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
the trolls here most likely worship Paul Krugman. so sad. i weep for the future.
betodesign101 2 years ago
Yeah, I guess it's awful when real economists like Krugman and just about every other one in the world disagrees with Schiff.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
the krug-man and those like him represent a failed and disastrous economic system. kinda like the scientists involved in Climategate they have constructed a consensus amongst themselves. the krug-man receiving a nobel peace prize should have sent a signal to you Keynesianites, but you never learn.
betodesign101 2 years ago
What a surprise. You haven't been reading Krugman's columns. Krugman has criticized US economic policy for 10-12 years.
And have you read Keynes or examined the decades of research? What about monetarism? Do you even know what monetarism is? It is the primary paradigm that competes with Keynesianism. You're just ignorant.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
10-12yrs? ha! how convenient. you keep bringing up failed economic systems. whats your deal? are you a Wharton or Kellogg alumni or something?
betodesign101 2 years ago
If the US economic system is failed, then I guess you don't recognize success. Tell me, which systems in the world now haven't failed, based on your view? How many are sucessful?
Zeldovich 2 years ago
Really? So, which papers have you read by Krugman? What work did he win his Nobel for?
Which climate science papers have you read?
Zeldovich 2 years ago
Krugman says the FED should have printed far more money to bailout the banks and companies in trouble. Shows all he knows
Seano71 2 years ago 2
Almost every economist agrees with Krugman. Of course, that's the difference between being a bachelors level stock broker and a PhD, Noble economist. Sure, PhD and Nobel don't automatically make Krugman right, but Schiff's ideas just don't make sense.
For example, Schiff says that no one is smart enough to beat th emarket when it comes to monetary policy, yet he thinks he knows more than the market on the dollar, for example. He also thinks he knows more about gold, silver, and stocks,
Zeldovich 2 years ago
He's also been spot on about the financial collapse and wrote a whole book about what would happen in detail, while Krugman never even saw it coming.
To be a priest you have to spend about 5 years in college, but what they learn is total bullshit. I'm afraid its no different when it comes to Keynesian economics.
Seano71 2 years ago
When did you read his General Theory? Most of you anti-Keynesians have never even read Keynes or examined any research meant to address his ideas. Also, apparently so many of you are so ignorant you don't even talk about monetarism, which is a school exemplified by Milton Friedman. Have you read his Monetary History of the US?
Zeldovich 2 years ago
its seems you dont know nothing about the market yourself. peter is right on the money since 2006. your just like the rest of them dumasses. your worthless.
omapps 2 years ago
sure. I know nothing about the market, yet my rates of return vastly exceed his. I was dollar heavy in summer of '08 while the rest of you clowns were worried about inflation. I saw that nGDP was below 5%, and coupled with forward-looking indicators like interest rates and futures, I saw a very bad economy for a few years. Schiff was dead wrong about decoupling, but I thought that if the US sneezedm the whole world would get a cold. I was obviously right, and the dollar went up 31% during
Zeldovich 2 years ago
the crisis. So, with a much more valuable dollar, I bought up assets at historic lows and have profitted handsomely to say the least.
Schiff lost a huge amount of money last year. He brags about being up 70%, but that still doesn't come close to making up for his tremendous losses last year. He's a fool and he'll flush you right down the toilet with him.
Gold is going to have a huge correction, by the way.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
I watched plenty of Krugman interviews. For what I've learnt, even Keynes would have been against the amount of bailouts that have occured.
Schiff was wrong because he didn't bet on the government and FED being dumb enough to print so much money and give it to the failures at such a huge level. It has propped up the bubble, so give it a couple of years and it'll collapse and they won't be able to prop it up again. The dollar is down against gold and so is the Dow
Seano71 2 years ago
Schiff said all along that he thought the Fed would print until we ran out of trees. He'd been saying that for 15 years.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
yes most economist do agree with krugman, and those same economist didnt see a bubble, they didnt see the depression, they also agreed with bernake when he said that house prices we not gona fall,and when he said that the economy was looking very strong right before the collapse.they also agreed with paulson and barney frank and chris dodd when they said that the financial system was very strong and sound again right before the collapse.krugman is helpful because you can bet on the opposite
slickbtk 2 years ago 2
@Zeldovich Economics is my subject. I disagree with Krugman on the bailouts. Bailouts cant work. Dont compare Japan as they had completely different circumstances. What the fuck does a PHD mean? Look at Bernanke LULZ.
theguvnorjimmy 2 years ago 2
What do you mean economics is your subject?
I agree Bernanke's been horrible, but because he hasn't created nearly enough money.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
which people in the world disagree with schiff, you dont know what the fuck your talking about. thats why all the countries in the world are buying gold silver. waiting for the dollar to crash. wake the fuk up jerk..
omapps 2 years ago
My rate of return is much better than his and I retired at the end of last year at age 32. So, if that means I don't know what I'm talking about, then I'm happy being ignorant! lmao
Zeldovich 2 years ago
wait, no one is arguing to carry gold bars in your pocket. what the hell are you talking about? did you go to Harvard Business School?
betodesign101 2 years ago
"little" as in comprehensive and sensible regulatory laws. all gov can do is provide a fair playing field for businesses to thrive. the only religion is see is you worshiping the Fiat Currency which is totally based on FAITH. you obviously do not possess enough economic or historical knowledge and i am not going to play your professor. you can start to educate yourself some more by reading Gene Callahan's "Economics for Real People".
betodesign101 2 years ago
a dollar bill costs 3.6 cents to produce no matter what its printed value is. How can anyone claim that a $100 bill is worth 100x more than a $1 bill when they cost the same amount of effort to produce. Gold has been currency for 6000 years, paper money continually fails because you cannot have something represent value that has no value itself.
ForTehNguyen 2 years ago 2
none of that matters. It's only the perceived value that matters, until the cost of producing a dollar actually falls below the market value.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
our most stable economic growth was 1800-1900s....under a gold standard. We had far less bubbles and crashes in that time. The panics that happened during that time were because of fractional reserve banking, not a gold standard. Funny how since 1913 the dollar has lost 96% of its purchasing power, and you say our standard of living went up?
ForTehNguyen 2 years ago 2
Wrong. It was blind adherence to that archaic commodity that caused the Great Depression. The countries that devalued their currencies did much better. Read Friedman's Monetary History of the US.
It's maintaining money velcity that's important.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
lol There were many more booms and busts before 1913 than since. Look at NBER data. lmao
Zeldovich 2 years ago
you are not a fan of Keynesian economics but believe in their primary cornerstone: that govt can stimulate the economy?
The govt cant stimulate anything they take from the economy to perform their functions. How is taking X dollars in taxes from the productive sector and giving it to some other sector help the entire economy?
ForTehNguyen 2 years ago 2
Monetarists beleive in expanding the money supply to stimulate economic growth during recessions. Keynesians put more emphasis on fiscal policy.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
you are confusing the economic expansion of the 50s with the erroneous correlation with the GD. 50s was prosperous because of the 2/3 reduction in govt spending, 1/3 reduction in taxes, the huge savings from citizens because of the lack of consumer goods in the post WW2 america
how you tied this to the great depression is beyond me
Funny how the standard of living has been constantly eroding the middle class since the 1960s, the middle class standard of living has been falling.
ForTehNguyen 2 years ago 2
It's very simple. Without the artifical demend caused by WW2 and the pent up demand after, the US would've probably still been in the Great Depression.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
And fiat currency has always failed. Always. You talk about history, you need to study. Under a true free market "devoid" of a central bank, currency has value and is backed by something of value. If currency doesn't need backing why work? Why not just print money?
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value -- zero. Voltaire
lintburger 2 years ago 2
Let me get this straight, you prefer a program that employs methods that have repeatedly failed in their intent over a market free from overpowering manipulations that has rarely even been attempted? And you prefer this even given the history that the closest approximation to a free market resulted in the greatest period of expansion and wealth for all classes of citizen in the US.
You sir, have marked yourself an enemy of prosperity.
maskedphrogg 2 years ago
the "market" are people conducting business with little gov intervention. in a real sound money market financial products like credit default swaps, derivatives, MBS etc would have never existed. they only can exist with gov participation and a printing press. thats the point.
betodesign101 2 years ago
folks, once the USA defaults on their loans our creditor nations (europe, china, russia, india etc) will be mailing YOU (the us citizen) invoices to your home. get ready folks. when you refuse to pay the International Court will garnish your checks.
betodesign101 2 years ago
and Keynesian economics is.. what... based on reality? this is all Ivy League schools teach and its no wonder these ivy league presidents continue to destroy this country. you obviously do not understand Sound Money and are probably not smart enough to understand it either. we have to brake free from the chain of the US printing press and the Federal Reserve or are you satisfied with being plugged into the establishment's status quo?
betodesign101 2 years ago
jaguar is an idiot. The Great Depression resulted in the biggest economic expansion and living standards? We wasted over a decade of progress just like the Japanese did in the 1990s. The industrial revolution was biggest economic expansion for America, and we were on a gold standard at that time.
You cannot have something that has no intrinsic value represent something that has value.
ForTehNguyen 2 years ago
No kidding they have called for a gold standard as PART of a program to reform out of control gov spending.
And the piece about New Deal success, that was a jolly good joke. Demonstrably the New Deal was a failure and for clear discernible reasons. It displaced capital from sustainable and productive activity to activities that proactively destroyed capital and the good that can be done with capital resources.
Crisis is in the eye of the beholder. How is limiting spending to what you have bad?
maskedphrogg 2 years ago
I certainly hope the teachings of the Austrian School of Economic thought are "unfalsifiable"
Last thing we need is more faux stimulus based on lying about an economic theory.
See Keynesian analysis for an example misused throughout the 20th century in the US.
maskedphrogg 2 years ago
What sustainable and productive activity? When the New Deal started, unemployment was 25% and 1/3 of all banks had failed. Farmers had crops rotting in the fields and new vagrants roamed around the west aimlessly seeking employment. You're an idiot.
UNemployment fell as soon as Roosevelt started devaluing the dollar in '33. By '34, it was down to 17%. He just didn't devalue enough. He should've listened to Melon more.
Zeldovich 2 years ago