Reliable Poll predicted landslide victory for Ahmadinejad Iran election 2009

[bahariran2009]

زمان آن رسيده كه صداي مردم ايران براي تغيير شنيده شود.

يك تغيير دمكراتيك به دست مردم و مقاومت ايران

مريم رجوي

maryam-rajavi سايت

We support Mrs Rajavi 100 percent

maryam_rajaviتوييتر

[piruz87]

you dumb cunt who uploaded this video, there are millions of people in iran protesting, and plus they gave out the results of the election before they recieved the rest of the votes from iranian outside the country, how many more evidence do we have to present to prove that this election was rigged? but everybody knows the truth now! i mean any moron can go on the internet and post a stupid video like this!

[boi187]

@piruz87 Actually, many independent opinion polls conducted by western organizations show that Ahmadinejad was overwhelmingly popular with the Iranian people 2:1. Me and my family are Iranian and we support Ahmadinejad and so does everyone we know. Just face it; American/Israeli propaganda has failed to work. The people of Iran support Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollah. Check out the Guardian (UK newspaper) report on this issue, it is clear that Ahmadinejad won the election fair and square.

[piruz87]

@boi187 well me and my family are Iranian too! and we all know that ahmedinejad is a thug murderer! and the election was rigged! lol everyone you know supports ahmedinejad well of course your all bunch of fucking cunts! really where are these indipendent polls? where were you supporters of ahmedinejad, when thousands and thousands of iranian protested all over the place in america, i didnt see any of you there? haha, you mean the polls set up by IRI gov! kose naneye to va khanevadat!

[boi187]

@piruz87 There were a handful of thugs that protested, all organized by American/Israeli intelligence (this is no secret). Maybe you should check the video that automatically plays when you go to my channel. The independent opinion polls were conducted by Western newspapers, charities, and neutral organizations. Ahmadinejad is a real people’s person. I do not believe that you are Iranian for a second, sorry. The protestors did not even show respect for Ashura.

[boi187]

@piruz87 Watch on YouTube: Copy and Paste: Iran Elections 2009 | Ahmadinejad Victory: Iranians voted for Revolution to go on

[piruz87]

@boi187 see unlike you who goes and watches videos made by people on youtube! i actually go out there and see people! any moron can upload bullshit on the internet! why dont you go watch what really iranian think of ahmedinejad? i wont complain though, mullah are in power right now! but know this one day people will have power in their hand! then we will get our revenge! just know that anywhere in the world you go, you wont be safe! and by the way no body gives a fuck about ashura anymore!

[boi187]

@piruz87 Me and my family are Iranian and we visit Iran frequently. Please refrain from making an even bigger fool out of yourself. Have you not been to Iran and seen the daily anti-American/Israel street protests in the streets of Iran? We are from Tehran.

[piruz87]

@boi187 lol go fuck yourself! yeah i do see bunch of morons on friday prayers, bunch of fucking morons paid to go there! bunch of fucking sepahis! but the young people are out there they are the one that will make a difference! i saw the 2 millions protesters after the day of rigged election to kose naneye adame dorooghoo you dont live in tehran!

[boi187]

@piruz87 You are a traitor and you know it. Go and fight for American and Israeli interests but don't you dare to claim that you fight for the Iranian peoples interests. Ahmadinejad has overwhelming majority support from the Iranian people (me and my family included). Opinion polls conducted by Western newspapers, charities, and organizations show that Ahmadinejad is popular 2:1 which is a landslide victory! Iran for a peaceful nuclear programme and Iran's wealth for Iran’s people!

[2bwiskid]

Weak poll ! Was data collection valid ? People did not dare to express views on their choice of president but were naturally more honest about absact questions. The peak of the green campaign was the last 2 weeks and the great majority of the undecided and even some pro-Ahmadi people shifted towards Mousavi. Mousavi was the real winner. Do google other sources.

[boi187]

@2bwiskid Actually, many independent opinion polls conducted by western organizations show that Ahmadinejad was overwhelmingly popular with the Iranian people 2:1. Me and my family are Iranian and we support Ahmadinejad and so does everyone we know. Just face it; American/Israeli propaganda has failed to work. The people of Iran support Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollah. Check out the Guardian (UK newspaper) report on this issue, it is clear that Ahmadinejad won the election fair and square.

[arlysutroa]

there is a striking difference between U.S. demonstrations and Iran demonstrations...in the U.S. the media is afraid to report anti-government demonstrations and suppresses all coverage of police suppression and brutality...beatings, shootings, mass arrests...we've seen more U.S. media coverage of the recent street demonstrations in Iran over the past few weeks than we have of U.S. demonstrations and police brutality over the past four decades

[Tom101229]

Anti-government demonstrations? I bet you haven't been seeing much of what is going on in the United States, recently have you? Tea-bag parties and the current don't allow a Democrat Congressman to speak mob insurgencies.

Supress politice brutality, what the hell was Obama doing for about a month or so regarding the police?

[Arraxbollar]

Actually there is 15% that didnt want to answer the question, they say it in this video.

[shorty40merza]

this is weird because when i add the percentages they don't add up to 100

27+34+14+2+1=78

22% missing

[Arraxbollar]

This is a short version of the poll, there is a 1hour video here aswell, they talk about those 22% in that video.

[japanrussell]

P.S., No poll is independent, free and fair because Iran is under the close supervision of the Basij and RG and counterintelligence services. Do you actually think many Iranians will tell someone calling them on the phone who they ACTUALLY support? Of course not! They or their family could become the subject of violence and brutality if they did. The idea of getting a statistically significant poll with a high degree of certainty, in Iran is absurd. This is bunk bunk bunk F- BUNK

[japanrussell]

What randomizing algorithms did you use to generate A. Time of call, B. Area of call, C. Type of device being called (cellular vs land line), D. Accent/Regional Identity of those placing the calls. Furthermore, you said "We did an analysis" on this and that data, time and time again. Why type of analysis did you do? This posting is completely not journal worthy. It is more like a pro-government banter mascarading as statistics and data that it is not. You forget the opposition is educated!

[japanrussell]

And before you attack back, I am a statistician who develops original algorithms to develop curve fitting data especially in a non-parametric adistributive subject data. I think your findings are completely bunk and the methodology to used to maintain the statistics is flawed.

[japanrussell]

Wow! This is wonderful! Statistics can say ANYTHING you want them to! However, those that develop statistics for a political purpose are doing so unethically. Please ask Neda who was shot through the chest yesterday by the Basij who she and her father voted for! Anything that props up President in-Pretense, or the hypocritical Supreme Leader in Treachery, has no place in a position to influence anyone's thinking, as they are lying murderers.

[eCraftSpace]

See my other videos about how CIA overthrow a government Iran election 2009 compared with Iran coup 1953 by Amy Goodman.

[SalahuddinIrani]

Were these telephone polls conducted in English or Persian? Although over 90% of Iranians have telephone only a small percentage speak English fluently. How scientific are telephone polls? I get lots of phone calls from these poll-people but I usually tell them to fuck off because their questions are irrelevant and designed in a way that they want to get the result they want. Questions like Do you want Free Press or Banana flavoured Ice-cream?"

BTW I voted for Ahmadinejad and I will again.

[SalahuddinIrani]

Is there such a thing as Free Press in the west? Rupert Murdock owns most of the western world media and dictates his Zionist views to the world! How free are his press? Try to post a comment on any one of them and you will see how they censor you! You are only free if you agree with them! Freedom of press is only a joke in the western world.

[jimladx]

So few people appreciate this in the west!

[Hilixy]

SalahuddinIrani,

Read the survey in its entirety; it's available on TFT website. The survey was conducted in Farsi language -- how else would they extract dozens of questions from people? The report has contradictory information regarding the location of the center. On page 3 says it was conducted inside Iran but on page 25, it asserts that it was done outside of the country.

[SalahuddinIrani]

Hilixy you need to ask yourself a couple of simple questions. Who are these people? Why do they conduct a survey? Who pays these people to do what they do and conduct the survey? When you answer these questions you will come to the conclusion that I have come to.

The guy who pays the bill is in charge of the results.

[nauiocelotl]

Sorry you liberal ,don't ignore the poor and rural vote .

[alexhiggins80]

Did you watch this video yourself? The title "poll predicts landslide victory for Ahmadinejad" is expressly contradicted by what the guy in the video actually says.

He states clearly that the 'don't knows' were largely reform-minded (60%) and predicts a run-off as the most likely outcome, based on the data.

[SalahuddinIrani]

alexhiggins80; I can tell you that over 90% of my friends and family voted for Dr Ahmadinejad; so where are those 60% you are talking about?

[younggongofmine]

The title of this video is BS, the guy in the video says himself its gonna be close. and shouldnt the people that didnt answer be in the dont know section of the poll?

[Slaz111]

Real facts win zionist propaganda, go Ahamedinejad!

PS: YOU ALL STOP BELIEVING JEWISH PROPAGANDA ABOUT IRAN, ARE YOU FREAKING MAD? THEY DON'T GOT A SINGLE PROOF!

[alexhiggins80]

Slaz111, did the Jews also steal your lower case letters?

You know what - those hundreds of thousands of people challenging the Iranian regime in the streets aren't Zionists.

[Advorec]

Reply to this in our blog .

[Toxxic88]

Are you guys for real? this video is so utterly stupid.

These polls were conducted by means of intimidation and manipulation. Good grief

[eCraftSpace]

Look for these words in YouTube:

CIA, Iran and the Election Riots - June 14, 2009

[eCraftSpace]

Media is anti Ahmadinejad. You see the pattern in the media. They are manipulating the public by reporting one sided with enormous amount of distortions and biases. Demonstrators mostly from a rich district in north of Tehran shout WHERE IS MY VOTE? According to this poll their vote was not enough to win election. But they do not accept it. There is no evidence but this reliable poll. An extremely unreliable story, rumors and one sided reporting is becoming truth without evidence. I am critical.

[kzzz1000]

youtube McCain bomb iran song. 2 co-chairs of 9/11 commission picked by the bush admin.Shirin Farhadi can be a totally made up person. There is no way to verify if she was ever in iran and did they things they claim she did. Is that specific enough? Oh they claim so many of the democratic and student org and blogs in Iran praised their survey..they must be so many since they forgot to mention even ONE.

[HHRB0664]

You can't count 50,000,000 paper ballots in three hours.

[TheLegitHeel]

Dude. They counted the ballots as they came in to the voting stations. They dont just wait until after the elections to count. They are proactive. They had from early morning 9 am until polls closed at 9pm. Then 3 hours after polls closed they counted 19% of the vote. You are irrational and exagerating with your claims.

[fr0nc]

Why did they cheat so obvious? A 55% win of Ahmadinedschad would be more reliable. The most suspicious thing about this election is this result. 62% for Ahmadinedschad? No way. And who counted the votes? The internal affairs ministry whos chief is actually a supporter of Ahmadinedschad? And why did they try so hard to hide evaluation processes from international press if the results are correct and they normally won't have anything to hide?

[TheLegitHeel]

Proof? Do you have it? The polling was done by two government agencies and both were headed by Mousavi supporters. Nobody breaks the law for partisan politics.

[kzzz1000]

Also take a look at the board of advisers of Terror Free Tomorrow, quiet a cast of ppl such as John McCain. My favourite is Shirin Farhadi, who changed her name, to protect her identity. Wow. Why do they even have her name up there? How does anyone verify that this person even exist?

[kzzz1000]

They predicted that none of the candidates would win the first round. The race would be very close.

They mentioned that most of the undecided (27%) identified with REFORMIST values.

The rate of decline was 42%.

Also can someone clarify this? 34 +27+14+2+1 = 78

Wat about the remaining 22% ?

Improved relations with the US was considered a big point in this survey...is that was Ahmadinejad's been doing for the last 4yrs ?

[TheLegitHeel]

The 27% of undecided, 60% would go to reformist. So thats like 16%. Add that to the 14% Mousavi has and that equals 30%. The rest refused to answer the question. They broke even between regime supporters and reformers. I do not understand your point about McCain and Farhadi? What are you implying? Be specific.

[kzzz1000]

yes! they REFUSED. Why? The same reason as the 42% decline rate.They did not predict landslide victory, the predicted 34% support for Ahmadi. 23% were not satisfied wit ANY of the candidates. Now with respect to Ahmadi's position: 77% favoured elections for the position of supreme leader. 77% favor normal relations with US. 58% said Ahmadi did not fulfill the promise of oil money on their tables.

[TheLegitHeel]

Dude. This poll pretty solid if you ask me. So what if they are part of the 9/11 commission? So what is their angle for coming up with these results? And I would be pleased if you came up with a poll that showed Mousavi was actually ahead.

[mardekan]

None of these polls mean anything in Iran, none , zilch. It's all bull crap. People of Iran don't give a shit about opposition to Israel or arabs. Iranians don't even like arabs!! This is a myth put in your heads by all the BS western analysis who don't know anything about Iran. People of Iran absolutly hate this criminal ,torturing, murdering government (Ahmadi, Khamenaei, all the mullahs, Islamic government and so forth). I am from there and just came back from Iran. These basterds have to go.

[mvaredi]

Only a person who knows Iran can judge about it. Data analysis that you have done is correct where people can tell the truth and dare to say their real will.

If any one asks me who would you vote I would say Ahmadi Nejad but that's because someone is called me and I afraid of being arrested !

That's why your data is not reliable and I am sorry that any analysis on them does not indicate truth in Iran.

[dhundupdolker]

how come people think all these are fake?

if cheating in vote count would be that easy then the voting wouldn't have been there at the first place.

Iran wanted a president who can stand up to us and israel and they got it. end of story.

if those undecited voters and refused to answer voter wanted to vote for the reform they would have spoken out loud. Tehran is one city, Iran is not Tehran. People voted for Ahmadenejad coz they want him to make Iran a nuclear power.

[TheLegitHeel]

All the Mousavi supporters are shocked because they were relying on Mousavi's biased pollsters. And Mousavi stupidly and arrogantly declared victory well before the votes were tallied. He got caught up in "winners syndrome". Mousavi has yet to submit formal documentation citing irregularities or fraud to the interior ministry. So far his allegations are without viable proof. All candidates had observers at each polling station. There was very little to no reports of anything wrong.

[mardekan]

The LegitHeel,

You are repeating official Iranian government BS response to the west. Very fishy pal. Everybody that is in touch with Iran and truly loves Iran knows what these criminals have done to Iran in the past 30 years. you are saying all this non sense when 9 out of 10 people in iran want the mullahs to go. People here need to undersrtand people of Iran are fighting for their freedom from these basterds. bringing Mousavi is not the real goal. This whole system must and will change.

[eCraftSpace]

I am a critical thinker. Those 27% undecided might voted for Ahmadinejad, becasue a lot happened between May 2009 and election day. The poll predicted reliably the results for Rezai (1%) and Karroubi (2%). The poll predicted reliably that most Azaris (Mousavi's ethnic group) would vote for Ahmadinejad. Conclusion from the poll:NO FRAUD! Ahmadinejad has done a great job. Media is controlled by interest groups. Protesters are undemocratic, because they do not accept the majority rule.

[zaappaaz]

For you as a critical thinker it is obvious that those undecided voted for Ahmadinejad?

Explain that. Is it because the opponent´s wife wanted more rights for women? Or is it because Obama gave the Iranian people some hope for a better relationship to the west?

You are right, a lot happened. A lot that helped the opposition in Iran.

[Shaghayegh11]

There is no hard evidence? How about the fact that numbers do not add up in iran's election website? how about the fact that results were in Keihan BEFORE the election polls closed? ARE YOU THE KIND THAT HAVE SOME BENEFITS WITH AHMADI NEJAD"S WIN OR ARE YOU JUST SO DAMN STUPID?

[zets13]

what a AIPAC bullshit kind of crap.....they just wanna bomb Iran.Desperately, he is trying to say that Ahmdnj is popular in Iran and people actually elected him.

BULLSHIT

[Hilixy]

This is utter nonsense. The majority of the rural voters are extremely frustrated with Ahmadinejad's handling of the economy and economy trumps almost every other criteria when it comes to voters. Ahmadinejad had been traveling the country for the last several months and even at his strongest cities, the attendance of the supporters were so low that the government controlled networks didn't dare to air the speeches and only reported after a meager crowd dispersed.

THIS IS BULLSHIT.

[idricool]

Youre Bullshit.Did you go to Iran and actually count the number of protestants and compare them to the country's population ? NO.

Hillyxy, You were propbably sitting in front of your computer and watching videos on CNN about the protest. Protesters can make only 30-40% of voters thats why you'd think its a majority.

[fayrouz2008]

exactly were the millions of ahmadinejad supporters shown on cnn no theyre not only the upper class students were all 3 thousand of them good job mousavi lol

[Hilixy]

Good grief, you are subtle boy. This is a poll conducted by Terror Free Tomorrow, funded by Rockefeller Fund, an umbrella group for every drollery neo-con think tank out there, which was incidentally done at the beginning of the election, several weeks prior to even the momentum of Mousavi's movement going into high gear. Of course, an absent minded clueless arm chair warrior such as yourself wouldn't care to know the election in Iran pretty much happens in the last 4 weeks.

[Hilixy]

The survey is highly unreliable and does not reflect the reality of the matter.

First and foremost, almost half the interviewees either didn't divulge who they were going to vote for or didn't know. However, according to the survey itself, 60% of those who didn't give answers were tilting toward the reformists -- again, a reminder that the poll was conducted way before Mousavi's support catapulted so the percentage who inclined toward reformist must have grown proportionally.

[Hilixy]

Second, it is interesting that by cross tabbing all the questions, it becomes apparent that the majority of those interviewed (80%) sought almost the exact same policies that the reformists like Mousavi has been touting and doing away from Ahmadinejad's conservative views. Yet we are ought to believe that the majority of people frustrated by decline in economy and skyrocketed unemployment, especially in the rural area, would choose a failed Muppet incumbent.

[Hilixy]

Third, A number of polls taken a week to 10 days prior to the election by various sources indicated a much closer race. For instance, in Tehran providence, on 13th of Khordad, Mousavi was ahead 50-55% to 30% for Ahmadinejad. Now all of a sudden the tide has turned and Ahmadinejad received 52% and Mousavi 46%. Not to mention every single polling institution was halted by the regime 10 days to a week prior to the election because apparently numbers were showing a growing momentum for Mousavi.

[Hilixy]

Fourth, this poll was not screened for likelihood of voting and frankly with 50% of interviewees not giving a solid answer to which candidate they would vote for, it becomes patently obvious that the "conclusions" drawn here is highly debatable and hardly should be taken seriously. Of course, don't let a propagandist neo-con tool, parading around your mental handicap conceal reality from your "lying" eyes.

[Hilixy]

Finally, I am an Iranian-American. I do have a number of acquaintances and relatives which I've been contacting all weekend. I also correspond with number of active journalists and university students inside Iran through various channels so I am in far more better position to be informed.

P.S. Learn to spell you cretin. It's not "protestants" but rather protesters. The former is a sect of Christianity. Take a hike.

[TheLegitHeel]

15% did not answer. Not 50%. And half was for the government.

[Hilixy]

Read the comment again, 50% gave an inconclusive answer -- either refrained from answering or didn't know. The other "half was for government" doesn't make much sense either. The remaining known interviewees' selection in the survey distributed among the four candidates which are basically "the government." Your redundancy was noted.

[TheLegitHeel]

At 4:08 he says that 15% of those polled did not give a response. That is what I am referring to. Also, that 60% were not based on those who did not answer. It is assumed that 60% of those who were undecided (27%) would prefer reformist policies. This poll is very thorough and reliable. If you have a poll that actually shows Mousavi ahead of Ahmadinejad, provide the link. Good luck

[Hilixy]

Once again, and try not to read between the lines this time, less than half the interviewees didn't provide a definitive answer, therefore it would be wrong to draw conclusion base on such undeterministic data set -- hence the reason I called the survey "unreliable" and "inconclusive." Even that, given the speculative nature of responses, we can assert the following from the paper:

Mousavi: .6 * .27 = 16% + 14% ~ 30%

AN: .4 * .27 = 11% + 34% ~ 45%

[Hilixy]

Now, in order to adjust these numbers to reflect what the official outcome suggests, Mousavi needs a mere "3%" while AN requires an additional "18%." So are we to believe that the remaining small portion that did not provide any answers (%15) are overwhelmingly went to AN ("95%") while the trend among those 27% was adjusted at 3 to 2 (60% vs. 40%)? That's absurd. If you wish to take the official results on face value, then this survey does not explain the construction of the election.

[idricool]

And you are an idiot. Do you have any other sources of information to support your statement ? Ahmedinadjad won the elections. If you're not happy than go cry about it. You use big words for nothing . ANd I didn't say that the elections did not happen in 1 month. ? You are a hypocrite.

[Hilixy]

I presented my case and rather than providing a rebuttal, you conveniently butt out to counter any premise I put forth. Rules in debating speculate that a blunt rejection with no persuasive clause would not constitute an eloquent rebuttal.

There is no crying on YouTube. I merely mentioned the time constraint in the election to point out the archaic characteristic of the survey done by TFT. Stop reading between the lines. You have a long way to go in life. So go, go, and keep going...

[SmallCountry09]

Precisly correct on the "Iranian people not being who Americans thought they were.."

This election was as just as Bush Gore 2000. Completely BS. They will do what they need to do to take control from theyre people like Bush did. I hope the people take back THIER country.

[iiNDiTC]

DONT BELIEVE THIS VIDEO, IF YOU NEED PROOF THAT THE STATISTICS HAVE BEEN MANIPULATED AND NO OTHER SOURCE CAN BE CORECT IF THE PRIMARY IS FLAWED! GO YOUTUBE IRAN ELECTION 2009 JUNE 13, 14, 15..you will find your evidence that these statistics have been tampered with, and in a way that shows that the govt can spit in the face of the majority of iranians who dont want a potato govt leader.

[boi187]

@iiNDiTC Actually, many independent opinion polls conducted by western organizations show that Ahmadinejad was overwhelmingly popular with the Iranian people 2:1. Me and my family are Iranian and we support Ahmadinejad and so does everyone we know. Just face it; American/Israeli propaganda has failed to work. The people of Iran support Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollah. Check out the Guardian (UK newspaper) report on this issue, it is clear that Ahmadinejad won the election fair and square.

[iiNDiTC]

the students are protesting everyday, people who didnt even like mousavi STILL VOTED against ahmad...the 65% is an insult to the intelligence of Iranian people, especially the bright young intellectuels who are INHIBITED AND OPPRESSED from reaching their potential...what a bunch of crap ppl like you are posting! ignorant idiots !(excuse the profanity, but at times like this it is the ONLY WAY TO LASH OUT AGAINST MORONS WHO DONT UNDERSTAND WHAT MAJORITY OF IRANIANS TALK ABOUT

[iiNDiTC]

True Reflection that is a bunch of bullshit, what are you talking about? You work for the Iranian government or your a stupid ahmadnejad supporter. Look guy the ENTIRE COUNTRY VOTED AGAINST AHMAD, your an idiot and your obviously not on the streets to see the protests STILL UNDERWAY SINCE FRIDAY..go youtube iran election 2009 June 13, June 14, June 15, and you will find your evidence against this "conspiracy theory..

[yanfaelone]

if those mob-like supporters keep their violent action, they only make a fool of themselves and disgrace Iran themselves. They don't know what is democracy is. It's a shame for all iranians to have such selfish and childish protesters.

[logansGT]

STFU yanfaelone, you mindless moron. You've been brainwashed by the mullahfuckers.

[mrsthursday]

yanfaelone. the majority rules in democracy. The majority voted for other than your little monster Ahmadinejad. He should pack his bags. little bastard.

[bleupeony2]

One wonders if the undecided really knew they would vote for Anmad or if the news of outside influence on the Lebanon election and the bombing of the mosque by American supported Fundullah pushed them over the fence to Ahmad?

[mikkitiny]

in fact, this poll looks very reliable and BTW it was carried out with participation of american institution. the poll shows that before the elections Ahmadinejad did have landslide advantage. another major finding of this poll is that iranians are thirsty of political changes and very drastic ones in their country. and it did not depend on their preference whether Ahmidinejad or Moussawi.

[nameofthepen]

Terror Free Tomorrow mission statement: "We are the only organization dedicated to a new strategic vision: leading the fight against terror by winning the popular support that empowers global terrorists.

LOL - what a bunch of tools. :D

Everyone knows the only "terrorists" are the people running the shadow governments.

[eCraftSpace]

As the poll in the video shows 27% who did not know plus 15% who did not answer could go either to Ahmadinejad or Mousavi. No one knows!

But the other results show that Ahmadinejad got 34% and Mousavi only 14&. This poll shows that it is highly possible that Ahmadinejad's cliam of victory is quite possible. In other words, no fraud in election.

[keren7]

No wonder the Right Wing was for Ahmadinejad he steals Elections just like they do.