I think Palin cost McCain the election, to a certain extent; and I think the big fear about McCain was that he'd be G. W. Bush's 3rd term. Then again, Obama has been faced with Bush's unsolved problems, a borderline-depressed economy, an un-cooperative congress, and bad public opinion ratings. In short, we have corrupt and out-of touch politicians, greedy corporations, massive job loss, and economic policies that may be making it worse!
@Logoscyth But to win, he needs the backing of the same poepl who backed Bush, Obama etc. What possible difference could there be if Ron does run and win?
I know its a bit late (since the election is long over), but the statistical analysis works only if the percentages are estimations of who will win, not if the percentages actually apply to support. If they apply to support, then a 60/40 split will result in a nearly absolute victory for the candidate with 60%
I'll keep that in mind next election season. I quit watching cable news last season because all they were doing was trying to fill airtime with fluff about the election and bad polling.
If they would find some actual news to cover, they wouldn't have to fill it with pointless hypotheticals etc.
Even if your were correct, not saying that you are, it wouldn't change the fact that Obama continues to inflate the dollar. Also, if you want a more accurate view of the situation...
Props to kennit1000 for recognizing this. Bush was easy to hate, with due thanks given to the media and contrarians-because-it's-stylish, but Obama is the polar opposite, as far as the popular eye sees. Bush could only get away with what his popular detractors would let him; Obama will be able to get away with anything because 1. most of the popular media wants to slurp his dick, and 2. opinions against the Dems will always seem ignorant and misguided thanks to FOX's bullshit. We're fucked.
I said Obama would win right from the beginning, and when he did... I thought it was a miracle. But after seeing more of ur vids, I thought about it and came to the conclusion it wasn't a miracle after all :))
There are no political party lines. Its all a smoke screen. The politcelebs are sacking this country like Atilla the Hun. Its Christmas and you can steal city hall. Watch as they continue to crash the party, fill their pockets and jump ship. Last one out gets stuck with the check!
yup i agree Obama is lying yo us and i'ma African American
first i believed in his change but then i started researching and doin my homework and i seen that he has da same beliefs as in the niggaz who been running this shit
Illuminati
Freemasons
and all that shit
Serpents
AntiChrist
I Think Obama is our AntiChrist and all that say he isn't isn't smart enough to research and find out on their own or is jus stupidly brainwashed that they can't open their eyes to jus look into it
I never get why blakc people can say nigger (even if it's spelled differently), but white people can't. Isn't that racist?
Anyway, don't believe "that shit". Neither Obama or the previous guys are into "that shit". It's just stupid, and there isn't any evidence for it. Be skeptic of what you find on the internet (and everywhere else).
According to 2012-ology, the world will end because of the Antichrist on the 21st of December. That's when the NEXT president has been elected, not this one.
The same reason why I can't (and won't) say the Cra word or maybe the Hon word....because even if you don't mean it offensively, if people are offended by it, then they're in the right. Besides, i know from personal experience that using those terms *aren't* so benign, even if you intend for it to be that way. They warp and distort you.
What?! Just because someone is offended, they are correct? So now people have a "right" to not be offended? And I suppose then they have the right to prohibit the free speech of those who would offend them?
I was putting forth the ethics of respecting one another. If you say or do something without the intention of insulting or offending someone and you do so by accident, then regardless of what happened, you should apologize. Why? Because you cannot tell what's going inside that person's mind or how they interpreted what you said. Now, intellectual ideas *shouldn't* insult or offend someone. Why is there a difference? Because an opinion is the property of your persons.
If you offend them via intellectual ideas, should you apologize? Probably yes but there's no backing in the sense that you don't really *have* to, it's just polite. An opinion doesn't assault anyone's persons. Say you were walking down the street, and you uttered something profane and someone walked up to you saying that they were disgusted by your vulgar language, then yea, apologize to be polite and respectful, unlike in an intellectual debate.
Again, that's not to be mistaken with your political rights. You can offend someone without harming them all you want. Will it reflect badly on you? Yes (Depending on the context of course). It's not really a rule of thumb so much as it is an ideal: just to respect people as much as possible while promoting social health and well-being. That's why I refrain from jokes involving race except my own (It's fun to make fun of yourself. :P)
They are trading closer to $77 to $23 now! If I could only wager here -- and you have McCain to thank for the QUASH on internet "gambling" he calls it.
Don't vote for this scumbag! He wants to take away our guns! He is a Marxist! He will be the next Hitler, We are doomed here in America, If he gets elected we will be a police state over this whole terrorist Lies we have been fed! This guy is a Liar like all of them, We have no votes that count anyways! We need to take all these assholes out of office and make 4 year terms for all of these clowns, 4 years and your gone period, All of them!
I am not a Redneck, I am a Italian/Irish White Guy that is educated and speaks with proper words! Obama is a Fraud...Look at Acorn man, open your eyes! There is no change and never will! We are all screwed, Obama is a damn Liar like all of them, he don't care about you, Why has he spent millions for a $150,000 a year job! Open your eyes!
Why can you treat current poll numbers as a probability of winning the state? You aren't randomly selecting a single voter from the state, you are trying to determine how likely it is for the poll to shift. That depends how strongly people support their candidates and what kind of new information about the candidates becomes available.
I have to say I'm a little wary of assigning an election result prediction based on the chances of winning individual states, because that sort of statistical treatment carries the assumption that the outcome in individual states has no co-dependency of any kind. I don't think that's the case. And yet, these methods are pretty good in giving out a more or less reliable trend.
Now I just need to find where I can buy some Obama shares :D
It's over. Market crashing today plucks McCains fingers from the edge of the cliff overhanging the valley of failure. Obama is what we need right now cause we need someone who can inspire and motivate. Taxes will be the last thing we'll be thinking about in the winter of 09 when Obama is sworn in.
Actually, don't get ahead yourself. Obama will lose by predestined factors that are not being taken into consideration with polls.
The voters will hold Obama accountable for going to a racist church for 20 yrs, hanging out with a terrorist, no executive experience, shady behavior with Tony Rezko, shady behavior with ACORN, talking about middle-class voters behind their back, and wanting to create the largest overreaching government to control everyone's life with his healthcare dictatorship
Hyperbole much? All that negative shit is going to do is annoy the very midwestern voters he is trying to win over. People in Ohio HATE attack adds, they think they're mean. Face facts buddy: it's over.
You also forgotten to include the sale of halloween masks as a valid indicator. For the last 7 elections the best selling mask has won the White House.
the media is filtering the polls.They had Kerry winning at this point too..whenever the dems do something wrong, they blame it on the reps, and Bush...we warned them to reform Fanny and Freddy, but they didn't listen....now, they point at us, and ignorant latte-sipping college kids, who know nothing about Obama will vote for Obama,because he's a liberal..when we are in more debt, and the jobless rate skyrockets, and we have to count on the government for everything, don't blame it on us, or Bush
Sometimes you make ignorant mistakes. CNN's projections ARE done using a meta analysis. CNN calls it their "poll of polls." Using the median value would be stupid, which is why CNN averages trusted polls. John King talks about different scenarios for PRECISELY what is shown in your video - things can change. Someone goes down, someone goes up. John King talks about scenarios that are realistic even if not probable. Or have you forgotten about probability when not talking about mutations?
Ok, anybody remember when Gore was winning the Election????
exactly
McCain will win.....this shit goes far beyond these useless votes...its all money, and those electoral colleges will be bought off for the right vote.
What the hell? I never said he was running for vice president. And when I said did Gore not actually win that election, I meant, Gore actually did win that election, it was just stolen from him.
they did 3 recounts....Kerry kept the race close because the dead people's votes were counting for him...right now in Ohio, you will see handouts being handed out to people, right on registration day to vote for Obama....everyone, look at my first video on my profile
well isn't that what i said?? is that not what you responded to and just so begged to differ??? i was saying bush stole 2 elections before, so what makes this election so fail proof??? thats all i was saying, then you said exactly what i said but in a questionable way
The probabilities computed around ~1:30 are wrong, wrong, wrong. If 60% say they will vote for 'A', that does not mean 'A' has a 60% chance of winning.
If we assume votes follow a binomial distribution, then 'A' actually has a much greater than 60% chance of winning.
Think of it like this: if you had polled all voters in a region [say, with an election...], and 60% say Obama, then you are essentially 100% sure Obama will win that region, not 60% sure.
you wanna come to England guv - BBC - paid for by the people, no advertising, no sponsors, no government control, no private funding or investment, results in impartial stuff!
The problem with your networks Fox, NBC, CNN is that they are not only conspicuously politically bias, they are funded by those with political bias (or, at least, commercial bias)
Yeah. We have one publicly funded network in the US. It's called PBS. Best news in America. Its a shame, though; recently they've had to cut back due to a lack of funding.
Its called "poll of polls" for a reason shithead... oh and its a 24 hour news network... how the fuck can you fill 24 hours? Hypothetical help, and I and many of my friends and I find them interesting. "cdk007" is an idiot.
You can fill 24 hours with news because there is never a point at which something noteworthy is not happening to someone or something. You are the idiot in this endeavour.
the news spends 6 hours broadcast Paris Hilton's sex tape ok, lol. The news is useless, they have so much censorship that the real stories never make it.
Damned if you do and damned if you don't situation. Anyway you look at it, whether the FED owns all the banks or the banks that aren't bailed out fall on their own, the government will be in control..
Statistics is a tricky beast. Meta-analysis used in the way you suggest would likely contain a variety of polls, each with varying degrees of accuracy. Compiling them would incorporate all of these inaccuracies. The prediction shares market also has its problems. The people buying shares would likely be people who have the disposable income to do so. Since the people participating aren't chosen randomly, the market is itself "hypothetical" because it forces 'sharholders' to make predictions.
the assumption with these meta-analyses is that they will be oppsingly schewed, and thus cancel eachother out somewhat after eliminating the extremes. Now, while that may work on large trails, its a lot less effective on public polls.
But, while still not totally accurate, a larger number participants does result in a better representation, assuming the data was properly selected (ie, not all from Fox etc.)
The Dems/NeoCon's Community Reinvestment Act forced banks to give home loans to those with bad credit. This resulted in speculation which ARTIFICIALLY inflated housing prices causing meltdown.
Printing MORE fiat US $Dollars to encourage more Wall Street greed will debase the currency and cause a MUCH larger GLOBAL collapse later!
Real Estate AND the stock market MUST return to their TRUE value NOW before the problem grows any larger!
Any US citizens out there not planning on voting, please do us pitiful, powerless Canadians a favour, and vote for Obama!!
Your politics affect us too, and yet we have absolutely no say in the matter. (As I said on Thunderf00t's latest vid, "Whoever your president is, that's the ass that our prime minister has to kiss. And we all know it!")
Ha ha so your prime minister likes black me? I get pissed off when Canadans post about US politics they have no say in or know "A BOOT". BUT YOU MY FRIEND have a sense of humor & know you have no say, Cheers my Hinterland brother! Obama is probably the best man, but let me clue you in, ALL politishians are semi-incompetent egocentric power hungry liars & crooks. Obama may be selling hope but he's not Jesus. The Pres can't fix all, but we hope the next one is not a BUSH II, Amen!
Yea politics are less than honest, no matter how promising any candidate is, but i agree with you that Obama probably is the best man compared to the shadow of Bush (McCain). And yea i was wondering what Canada was thinking about this whole mess...
I dunno about Canada, but Europe thinks you're all idiots for letting it come this far. (everyone likes to generalise) Also, we deeply dislike you for causing this much economic fall-out that's heading our way. We're also all in agreement that our banking system is vastly superior.
And we're crossing our finger and hoping we're right on that last statement.
Ps, we're secretly laughing our asses off, shadenfreude is universal after all.
You should not generalize, people who would have put a stop to this had they saw this coming might take offense. Not to mention the general American civilian really has no control over what happens with the banks (though some had the bad judgment to take out mortgages they could not pay back, thus helping this economic crisis along it's way. Finally if you believe your banking system is far superior, you don't have to worry because your hardy economy will cope correct?
I never said that was my personal opinion, just the general opinion of people in my little section of the continent.
I don't blame the people, I blame the horrible policy. And I don't worry much, because most banks here are required to have much larger debt coverage then in the US. Of course it's going to hurt, but not nearly as much as it could have.
Sadly though the ppl who wish to vote Obama might not have internet, so we might need to take to the streets. If you didn't know Obama is also related to Dick Cheney who's related to bush (more closer then you think) look up what a 9th cousin twice removed is. Its all in the Blood dude, but what is needed is carried through the famale Gene. (call me a crazy nutjob I don't care anymore) GO AFTER THE BANKERS!
9th cousing? That means their great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-grandfather was a commen ancenstor.
If the whole family had two kids, that would mean about 4100 bloodrelatives. I don't know anyone who would still consider the two related, seeing how the last person in both lines threw crates of tea into the Boston harbor.
WHAAHH are you serious dude? please tell me your joking. and if your not give me the best source you have/or point me in the direction. I heard something similar, but only about Prescott bush. please tell me ur jokeing I'm gullible and take nothing for granted anymore.
Do a google search; heaps of stuff will come up. I personally don't like to believe this sort of stuff but there are pictures that show a surprising resemblance between Barbara and Aleister
George W. Bush, Barbara Bush, and Aleister Crowley
then picked the "Was Aleister Crowley
Barbara Bush's Father?" link
Look i know I know nothing, theirs just so much to do. I literary just answered 3 comments from 3 dif people youtube is almost my life. I put this kind of stuff in the back of my mind.
The only people who win elections are the Christofascist corporate criminals who run these politicians. The rest of us are fucked up the ass twenty times a day.
Obama will lose the election because of other factors like....he sat in a racist church for 20 years, he friends with an unrepentent terrorist, he enterted into a shady land deak with a convicted slumlord (Hillary's own words), his wife is angry all the time (like Kerry's Wife), he's talks about middle class voters behind their back, he's weak on national defense, he's on a junior senator, he voted over 180 times present in the Illinois Senate, he dissed Hillary, and on and on..
Palin lost the election for McCain, if McCain(god forbid) would have die in office, she would be president... ya, tell me that isn't the stuff nightmares are made of. I'll take a angry black women giving a speech every once in awhile over a redneck cencorship happy "hockey mom" who didn't even know what the Bush Doctrine was as next in line for the presidency in a worst case scenario.
Yes, Congress must act AGAINST Bush. It is time to take our country from Paulson-bush-criminal Inc. for Congress belongs to the people . those who voted against this shameful robbery , are USA heroes who are swim against the current of corruption.
Oh no! Just because one person is ahead 60-40 doesn't mean they only have a 60% chance to win. If the poll was 80-20, would the underdog win 20% of the time? Of course not. Whoever is ahead, by any margin of 3+ points, is much more likely to win.
Uhm, wouldn't do a meta-analyses of inherently flawed polls, still yield an inaccurate result? Or are you assuming that all of the are slanted in opposite directions, cancelling eachother out?
You could make that claim for a hundred polls, but considering a small number (say a dozen) that's quite an assumption to make.
oh, you have a 3 party scenario? we're jealous over here......... our third parties never win anything, and are useless. so, we're forced to choose either the theocrats or the bleeding-heart liberals..... either way screwing us over.
Too this or too that. Must like this or you can't like that. "Listen to my thoughts & feelings." Ok. Cool, I don't agree with you put you're welcome to it. Here are my thoughts. "Free thinker? Multi faceted? Don't subscribe to generalizations or follow anything blindly? What? That's the American way you fucking god hating traitor"
Campbell Soup Co. was the only stock in the S&P 500 that escaped yesterday's historic sell-off. Thats right: 499 fell, and just one rose - - - Take that Greenwich, Conn - - you greedy bastards - - - -
Guess what? Obama or McCain, it doesn't matter. Maybe if you spent more time looking at voting records and thinking about issues, you'd realize you're lost in "election theatre"
So far there's no prediction market on "terrorist attacks in October".
I heard the DOD wanted to start one with the idea being the terrorists themselves would buy in before an attack (insider trading) to make a profit, but this would tip us off. It was canceled because it was seen as unpatriotic to gamble people would be blown up.
unpatriotic to gamble on people being blown up? bollocks! gambling is gambling, doesn't mean your gambling causes the attack. but it would be stupid for terrorists to bet that they'd attack, because it WOULD tip us off. so it probably wouldn't work.
I'm not saying that a vote for a 3rd is just the same as not voting. I'm saying it's similar because, in effect, a 3rd party vote has no bearing on the final result due the plural voting system. Implicit in my statement is accepting that a given 3rd party has no hope of winning. Of course the only way for a 3rd party to ever have any hope is to get voters. If you really care about the outcome and you live in a swing state I would recommend voting for the main candidate of your choice
One should not even look at the predictions. The popularity contest known as democracy should not be influenced by the likelihood of one particular candidate winning.
No, but for those of us who don't live in swing states where people's opinions sway like straw in the wind, and who have actually researched the candidates already, its fun to see what the rest of the country is thinking.
cdk007 does it again!i was WAITING for point at 3:34! If they DID they would have nothing to talk about (drag out).ah. such clarity! thank you cdk007!peace.
Ultimately, if they give predictions, they will affect the vote. Say they predict Obama to win. A large number of Obama supporters will feel safe, and won't vote. Then McCain has a much larger chance. Instead, if they do stupid pointless crap, they can try to get more voters out to get a solid election with many people voting from all sides. I doubt they would realize that tho. Either way, I like those methods, and will be watching them more closely.
ivy league schools LOL hmmm maybe that math class could teach you about the fact that Elect. College is a SUM and not a MEAN number. Even better about POLL WEIGHT which those polls give Blacks answering 2x weight of a white person. Why do they get to vote 2 x? How about using last elections exit polls as weight OH NO MR BILL. That puts John McCain up by 16 points Not the goal of this BS MAGIC math you video'd Apply mean to state polls then SUM EC votes Polls with proper weight not hype.
GunMuse, if you understood the math, perhaps you'd realize why you've put your foot in your mouth. He didn't split up the electoral votes; rather, he split up the probability of obtaining said votes (gained from polls) and weighted the probabilities by the number of electoral votes for the state in question. It's not "creative math;" it's accurate statistics.
Furthermore, the last presidential election's polls happened BEFORE the financial crisis, not after, ergo it has no weight. Money talks.
What poll are you talking about. Polls are balanced and weighted to reflect the electorate, i.e. if they happen to randomly sample many more senior citizens than they know are out there, they will adjust the weight of seniors down for that poll. It's not racist, its statistics.
Dude, that was a bad, repetitive song in the '80's I'm sorry I listened to it again. Warn us next time, so we can watch an otherwise good video without sound....
In a way it's an ironic reference to doomsday/apocalyptic warnings, like "in 'this generation' we have the final times" , oh no, the year 1000, oh no (insert a heapload of end of time warnings from jehovahs, joneses, etc) the year 2k, 2012, 2038 etc...
It is like government; the purpose is to get elected and stay elected. The media keep the hype high and make it seem like a contest, so they get more viewers. The Mccain campaign is the best tool out there to get Obama elected. The election will see Obama win by 15-20%, or possibly more. The GOP are doing their flat out best to rig the voting machines but they won't be successful. There will be no military, Oct surprise, because the military no longer listens to Bush. The election will be fair.
I think Palin cost McCain the election, to a certain extent; and I think the big fear about McCain was that he'd be G. W. Bush's 3rd term. Then again, Obama has been faced with Bush's unsolved problems, a borderline-depressed economy, an un-cooperative congress, and bad public opinion ratings. In short, we have corrupt and out-of touch politicians, greedy corporations, massive job loss, and economic policies that may be making it worse!
I seriously hope Ron Paul runs for 2012...
Logoscyth 1 year ago
@Logoscyth But to win, he needs the backing of the same poepl who backed Bush, Obama etc. What possible difference could there be if Ron does run and win?
nowthatsinteresting1 10 months ago
I love how OP stopped with the "lefty loving politics" after Obama became el presidente and fucked up our country even more.
Demis, you gotta love 'em.
icemoutin 2 years ago
I know its a bit late (since the election is long over), but the statistical analysis works only if the percentages are estimations of who will win, not if the percentages actually apply to support. If they apply to support, then a 60/40 split will result in a nearly absolute victory for the candidate with 60%
Keeban3 2 years ago
I'll keep that in mind next election season. I quit watching cable news last season because all they were doing was trying to fill airtime with fluff about the election and bad polling.
If they would find some actual news to cover, they wouldn't have to fill it with pointless hypotheticals etc.
civisromae 2 years ago
Obamanomics in effect now. He's working hard to destroy the US economy.
FireFlyF111 2 years ago
I'm working hard to destroy your mom's vagina tonight.
diapasonify 2 years ago
Nice
mcpoopy7000 1 year ago
I like the equation given in one economist's site. He got it using econometric analysis.
VOTEP(repub%) = 46.61 + .680*GROWTH - .657*INFLATION + 1.075*GOODNEWS
Good news is based on number of positive growth above 3.2% of previous admin out of the last 15.
The guy's even got a calculator in there where you can input the values and do "what if" scenarios.
Shadyhunter04 2 years ago
"I never get why blakc people can say nigger (even if it's spelled differently), but white people can't. Isn't that racist?"
I just use the perfectly legitimate and non-racist word "niggardly" and laugh my ass off when the ignorant and illiterate take offense.
But why would racism enter this comment box? Obama isn't black. He's biracial; equally white and black.
BTW, I'm not a republican, but Obama is even worse than Bush. He's sent MORE troops over AND inflated the dollar into the ground...
kennit1000 2 years ago
Not sure about the troop thing but the inflation part is wrong. Peak inflation was in Q2 of 2008 and it has been in decline since November 2008.
forecasts(dot)org(slash)inflation(dot)htm
ShawnD1 2 years ago
Even if your were correct, not saying that you are, it wouldn't change the fact that Obama continues to inflate the dollar. Also, if you want a more accurate view of the situation...
watch?v=xIG9vDPqZwY
kennit1000 2 years ago
Props to kennit1000 for recognizing this. Bush was easy to hate, with due thanks given to the media and contrarians-because-it's-stylish, but Obama is the polar opposite, as far as the popular eye sees. Bush could only get away with what his popular detractors would let him; Obama will be able to get away with anything because 1. most of the popular media wants to slurp his dick, and 2. opinions against the Dems will always seem ignorant and misguided thanks to FOX's bullshit. We're fucked.
GuerrillaForce 2 years ago
Not sure why so many people voted for Obama. He is destroying America.
FireFlyF111 2 years ago
So what has he "destroyed"?
ikvsabre 1 year ago
I said Obama would win right from the beginning, and when he did... I thought it was a miracle. But after seeing more of ur vids, I thought about it and came to the conclusion it wasn't a miracle after all :))
kaxitaksi 2 years ago
Man I can't wait to see who wins!!!
madzyzome 2 years ago
nice vid. If you make your links have the full url (which I cannot do here, damn youtube!) they will be active in the video description!
farvision 2 years ago
This has been flagged as spam show
just moved new area
ANYONE UP? I NEED SOMEONE TO TALK TO Ac
916pun 3 years ago
my left nut sack itches
thelastdon415 3 years ago
whats the name of the song? its sick
gotcha110 3 years ago
final countdown by a cheezy swedish 80s band called Europe.
mrbtardation 3 years ago 3
lol
Devilonsteroids 3 years ago
The final countdown
rex0189 3 years ago
i just got out of the shower and im still naked xD e
UnSeReEtAgE 3 years ago
i'd vote for obama no offence
ToxicLim3 3 years ago
Pensez-y.
swyft187 3 years ago
This has been flagged as spam show
if U are reading this and horny and bored u should check out my PROFILE and msg me on MSN messenger!!! i like 2 cyber. i think im a nympho!! k
flora333 3 years ago
This has been flagged as spam show
z 18/F/Texas. hrmMMmmm. someone msg me im bored!! 2
bmts12 3 years ago
This has been flagged as spam show
z does anhyone have msn!!! msg me jane23belle c
91163304 3 years ago
the reason im still watching this shit is da sick song
zezimlasux 3 years ago
"the reason im still watching this shit is da sick song "
You should hear the Children of Bodom cover
;-)
by the way, check out this site:
npr (dot) org / news / specials / election2008 / 2008-election-map (dot) html
Obama leads McCain 364 to 174 in projected electoral votes.
mdiem 3 years ago
i like Europe version a lot better
11mc22 3 years ago
that is Europe. i would know,i´m swedish.
LordJCS 3 years ago
i know the one in the vid is by europe but i was responding to a person who said something about the heavy metal version
11mc22 3 years ago
There are no political party lines. Its all a smoke screen. The politcelebs are sacking this country like Atilla the Hun. Its Christmas and you can steal city hall. Watch as they continue to crash the party, fill their pockets and jump ship. Last one out gets stuck with the check!
bloodyugly 3 years ago
yup i agree Obama is lying yo us and i'ma African American
first i believed in his change but then i started researching and doin my homework and i seen that he has da same beliefs as in the niggaz who been running this shit
Illuminati
Freemasons
and all that shit
Serpents
AntiChrist
I Think Obama is our AntiChrist and all that say he isn't isn't smart enough to research and find out on their own or is jus stupidly brainwashed that they can't open their eyes to jus look into it
millyblick 3 years ago
I never get why blakc people can say nigger (even if it's spelled differently), but white people can't. Isn't that racist?
Anyway, don't believe "that shit". Neither Obama or the previous guys are into "that shit". It's just stupid, and there isn't any evidence for it. Be skeptic of what you find on the internet (and everywhere else).
According to 2012-ology, the world will end because of the Antichrist on the 21st of December. That's when the NEXT president has been elected, not this one.
philip1201 3 years ago
The same reason why I can't (and won't) say the Cra word or maybe the Hon word....because even if you don't mean it offensively, if people are offended by it, then they're in the right. Besides, i know from personal experience that using those terms *aren't* so benign, even if you intend for it to be that way. They warp and distort you.
NwZ2 3 years ago
What?! Just because someone is offended, they are correct? So now people have a "right" to not be offended? And I suppose then they have the right to prohibit the free speech of those who would offend them?
ErikWithBrain 2 years ago
I was putting forth the ethics of respecting one another. If you say or do something without the intention of insulting or offending someone and you do so by accident, then regardless of what happened, you should apologize. Why? Because you cannot tell what's going inside that person's mind or how they interpreted what you said. Now, intellectual ideas *shouldn't* insult or offend someone. Why is there a difference? Because an opinion is the property of your persons.
NwZ2 2 years ago
If you offend them via intellectual ideas, should you apologize? Probably yes but there's no backing in the sense that you don't really *have* to, it's just polite. An opinion doesn't assault anyone's persons. Say you were walking down the street, and you uttered something profane and someone walked up to you saying that they were disgusted by your vulgar language, then yea, apologize to be polite and respectful, unlike in an intellectual debate.
NwZ2 2 years ago
Again, that's not to be mistaken with your political rights. You can offend someone without harming them all you want. Will it reflect badly on you? Yes (Depending on the context of course). It's not really a rule of thumb so much as it is an ideal: just to respect people as much as possible while promoting social health and well-being. That's why I refrain from jokes involving race except my own (It's fun to make fun of yourself. :P)
NwZ2 2 years ago
They are trading closer to $77 to $23 now! If I could only wager here -- and you have McCain to thank for the QUASH on internet "gambling" he calls it.
calboy2 3 years ago
Vote third party!
bonxmarl 3 years ago
Don't vote for this scumbag! He wants to take away our guns! He is a Marxist! He will be the next Hitler, We are doomed here in America, If he gets elected we will be a police state over this whole terrorist Lies we have been fed! This guy is a Liar like all of them, We have no votes that count anyways! We need to take all these assholes out of office and make 4 year terms for all of these clowns, 4 years and your gone period, All of them!
PLUMCRAZYFIREARMS 3 years ago
oh no!
piddleytwang rednecks will be outraged!
... and the KKK
noobwithagun 3 years ago
I am not a Redneck, I am a Italian/Irish White Guy that is educated and speaks with proper words! Obama is a Fraud...Look at Acorn man, open your eyes! There is no change and never will! We are all screwed, Obama is a damn Liar like all of them, he don't care about you, Why has he spent millions for a $150,000 a year job! Open your eyes!
PLUMCRAZYFIREARMS 3 years ago
Why can you treat current poll numbers as a probability of winning the state? You aren't randomly selecting a single voter from the state, you are trying to determine how likely it is for the poll to shift. That depends how strongly people support their candidates and what kind of new information about the candidates becomes available.
machalot 3 years ago
I sure would like to see cdk007 do an analyzation of Youtubes' logarithm. The damn thing keeps changing.
DogFoot23 3 years ago
I have to say I'm a little wary of assigning an election result prediction based on the chances of winning individual states, because that sort of statistical treatment carries the assumption that the outcome in individual states has no co-dependency of any kind. I don't think that's the case. And yet, these methods are pretty good in giving out a more or less reliable trend.
Now I just need to find where I can buy some Obama shares :D
Polymeron 3 years ago
It's over. Market crashing today plucks McCains fingers from the edge of the cliff overhanging the valley of failure. Obama is what we need right now cause we need someone who can inspire and motivate. Taxes will be the last thing we'll be thinking about in the winter of 09 when Obama is sworn in.
nickfurry1958 3 years ago 2
Obama has already won the election.
This has been pre-decided by the powers that be.
They are simply running McCain to lose, in order to foster the illusion of electoral democracy.
They did the same thing with Bush and Gore, Bush and Kerry.
just my opinion of course!
blackarrow125 3 years ago
Actually, don't get ahead yourself. Obama will lose by predestined factors that are not being taken into consideration with polls.
The voters will hold Obama accountable for going to a racist church for 20 yrs, hanging out with a terrorist, no executive experience, shady behavior with Tony Rezko, shady behavior with ACORN, talking about middle-class voters behind their back, and wanting to create the largest overreaching government to control everyone's life with his healthcare dictatorship
thepoliticalmind 3 years ago
I hope you are right.
blackarrow125 3 years ago
Hyperbole much? All that negative shit is going to do is annoy the very midwestern voters he is trying to win over. People in Ohio HATE attack adds, they think they're mean. Face facts buddy: it's over.
TheKingOfFresno 3 years ago 2
No they won't.
That stuff means nothing.
McCain is wrong on regulation, wrong for the economy, wrong on the war on terror, wrong on everything that means anything to voters.
His staff is full of lobbyists and fat cats. And his first major decision was to pick a bag of hammers to be the VP.
middlekk 3 years ago 4
You also forgotten to include the sale of halloween masks as a valid indicator. For the last 7 elections the best selling mask has won the White House.
bunnysnot 3 years ago
the media is filtering the polls.They had Kerry winning at this point too..whenever the dems do something wrong, they blame it on the reps, and Bush...we warned them to reform Fanny and Freddy, but they didn't listen....now, they point at us, and ignorant latte-sipping college kids, who know nothing about Obama will vote for Obama,because he's a liberal..when we are in more debt, and the jobless rate skyrockets, and we have to count on the government for everything, don't blame it on us, or Bush
Jagnole101 3 years ago
Sometimes you make ignorant mistakes. CNN's projections ARE done using a meta analysis. CNN calls it their "poll of polls." Using the median value would be stupid, which is why CNN averages trusted polls. John King talks about different scenarios for PRECISELY what is shown in your video - things can change. Someone goes down, someone goes up. John King talks about scenarios that are realistic even if not probable. Or have you forgotten about probability when not talking about mutations?
AshiStarshade 3 years ago
Ok, anybody remember when Gore was winning the Election????
exactly
McCain will win.....this shit goes far beyond these useless votes...its all money, and those electoral colleges will be bought off for the right vote.
Elections are bought, not won.
SuaveCapone 3 years ago
Did Gore not actually win that election?
in3x 3 years ago
uh no...see what happens when people try to be smart asses. lol
He ran against Bush in 2000 for president, not vice president dumbass.
SuaveCapone 3 years ago
What the hell? I never said he was running for vice president. And when I said did Gore not actually win that election, I meant, Gore actually did win that election, it was just stolen from him.
in3x 3 years ago
they did 3 recounts....Kerry kept the race close because the dead people's votes were counting for him...right now in Ohio, you will see handouts being handed out to people, right on registration day to vote for Obama....everyone, look at my first video on my profile
Jagnole101 3 years ago
well isn't that what i said?? is that not what you responded to and just so begged to differ??? i was saying bush stole 2 elections before, so what makes this election so fail proof??? thats all i was saying, then you said exactly what i said but in a questionable way
SuaveCapone 3 years ago
The probabilities computed around ~1:30 are wrong, wrong, wrong. If 60% say they will vote for 'A', that does not mean 'A' has a 60% chance of winning.
If we assume votes follow a binomial distribution, then 'A' actually has a much greater than 60% chance of winning.
Think of it like this: if you had polled all voters in a region [say, with an election...], and 60% say Obama, then you are essentially 100% sure Obama will win that region, not 60% sure.
Alky97495783 3 years ago
interesting
unclepetesnews 3 years ago
you wanna come to England guv - BBC - paid for by the people, no advertising, no sponsors, no government control, no private funding or investment, results in impartial stuff!
The problem with your networks Fox, NBC, CNN is that they are not only conspicuously politically bias, they are funded by those with political bias (or, at least, commercial bias)
PatRibsey 3 years ago 3
Yeah. We have one publicly funded network in the US. It's called PBS. Best news in America. Its a shame, though; recently they've had to cut back due to a lack of funding.
Crit0 3 years ago
I think PBS funding still is greater than BBC though. It's mostly funded by donations.
AshiStarshade 3 years ago
Its called "poll of polls" for a reason shithead... oh and its a 24 hour news network... how the fuck can you fill 24 hours? Hypothetical help, and I and many of my friends and I find them interesting. "cdk007" is an idiot.
Coldkilla9 3 years ago
"oh and its a 24 hour news network... how the fuck can you fill 24 hours?"
um.. with news? There's a whole lot going on in the world besides the election, you know.
Crit0 3 years ago 2
You can fill 24 hours with news because there is never a point at which something noteworthy is not happening to someone or something. You are the idiot in this endeavour.
Th1sWasATriumph 3 years ago
the news spends 6 hours broadcast Paris Hilton's sex tape ok, lol. The news is useless, they have so much censorship that the real stories never make it.
SuaveCapone 3 years ago
Damned if you do and damned if you don't situation. Anyway you look at it, whether the FED owns all the banks or the banks that aren't bailed out fall on their own, the government will be in control..
drewd1987 3 years ago
64% of all statistics are made up.
(c'mon, somebody had to say it.)
Crit0 3 years ago
Statistics is a tricky beast. Meta-analysis used in the way you suggest would likely contain a variety of polls, each with varying degrees of accuracy. Compiling them would incorporate all of these inaccuracies. The prediction shares market also has its problems. The people buying shares would likely be people who have the disposable income to do so. Since the people participating aren't chosen randomly, the market is itself "hypothetical" because it forces 'sharholders' to make predictions.
vortbio 3 years ago
the assumption with these meta-analyses is that they will be oppsingly schewed, and thus cancel eachother out somewhat after eliminating the extremes. Now, while that may work on large trails, its a lot less effective on public polls.
But, while still not totally accurate, a larger number participants does result in a better representation, assuming the data was properly selected (ie, not all from Fox etc.)
alcari 3 years ago
Great objective and informational video mate.
Ithallis 3 years ago
I'm not running the numbers, but this looks good overall. Nice job. Thanks for the vid.
t4ac3y1 3 years ago
Bailout? HELL NO!
The Dems/NeoCon's Community Reinvestment Act forced banks to give home loans to those with bad credit. This resulted in speculation which ARTIFICIALLY inflated housing prices causing meltdown.
Printing MORE fiat US $Dollars to encourage more Wall Street greed will debase the currency and cause a MUCH larger GLOBAL collapse later!
Real Estate AND the stock market MUST return to their TRUE value NOW before the problem grows any larger!
ANY 3rd Party in Nov.!
yakyakyak69 3 years ago
Any US citizens out there not planning on voting, please do us pitiful, powerless Canadians a favour, and vote for Obama!!
Your politics affect us too, and yet we have absolutely no say in the matter. (As I said on Thunderf00t's latest vid, "Whoever your president is, that's the ass that our prime minister has to kiss. And we all know it!")
therugdoctoranimesux 3 years ago 3
Ha ha so your prime minister likes black me? I get pissed off when Canadans post about US politics they have no say in or know "A BOOT". BUT YOU MY FRIEND have a sense of humor & know you have no say, Cheers my Hinterland brother! Obama is probably the best man, but let me clue you in, ALL politishians are semi-incompetent egocentric power hungry liars & crooks. Obama may be selling hope but he's not Jesus. The Pres can't fix all, but we hope the next one is not a BUSH II, Amen!
gmcjetpilot 3 years ago
Yea politics are less than honest, no matter how promising any candidate is, but i agree with you that Obama probably is the best man compared to the shadow of Bush (McCain). And yea i was wondering what Canada was thinking about this whole mess...
Samuris27 3 years ago
I dunno about Canada, but Europe thinks you're all idiots for letting it come this far. (everyone likes to generalise) Also, we deeply dislike you for causing this much economic fall-out that's heading our way. We're also all in agreement that our banking system is vastly superior.
And we're crossing our finger and hoping we're right on that last statement.
Ps, we're secretly laughing our asses off, shadenfreude is universal after all.
alcari 3 years ago
You should not generalize, people who would have put a stop to this had they saw this coming might take offense. Not to mention the general American civilian really has no control over what happens with the banks (though some had the bad judgment to take out mortgages they could not pay back, thus helping this economic crisis along it's way. Finally if you believe your banking system is far superior, you don't have to worry because your hardy economy will cope correct?
Samuris27 3 years ago
I never said that was my personal opinion, just the general opinion of people in my little section of the continent.
I don't blame the people, I blame the horrible policy. And I don't worry much, because most banks here are required to have much larger debt coverage then in the US. Of course it's going to hurt, but not nearly as much as it could have.
alcari 3 years ago
Ah sry for the misunderstanding then
Samuris27 3 years ago
Very good, thanks.
Gugguggug 3 years ago
Government is like a corporation, change the person in charge doesn't do much.
Fecture2222 3 years ago
Uhg Obama doesnt' deserve to win.
Roenazarrek 3 years ago
This election is too important to get wrong
Obama might not be ideal but he is much better than McCain
maxine2win 3 years ago 2
No he's not.
Roenazarrek 3 years ago
McCain and Obama are like coke and Pepsi.
Sadly though the ppl who wish to vote Obama might not have internet, so we might need to take to the streets. If you didn't know Obama is also related to Dick Cheney who's related to bush (more closer then you think) look up what a 9th cousin twice removed is. Its all in the Blood dude, but what is needed is carried through the famale Gene. (call me a crazy nutjob I don't care anymore) GO AFTER THE BANKERS!
lorerax1 3 years ago
9th cousing? That means their great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-great-grandfather was a commen ancenstor.
If the whole family had two kids, that would mean about 4100 bloodrelatives. I don't know anyone who would still consider the two related, seeing how the last person in both lines threw crates of tea into the Boston harbor.
alcari 3 years ago
Search youtube using these key words/vid titles
Bush Family Tree
USA Presidents related to UK
George Bush, More Strange Relations
Rockefeller Bloodline is intwined w/ in the Rothschild, Then there's the Freeman, the Kennedy, and other families of the Cabal 13 bloodlines.
lorerax1 3 years ago
My favourite internet allegation about Bush is that he's the grandson of Aleister Crowley through his mother Barbara Bush née Pierce
maxine2win 3 years ago
WHAAHH are you serious dude? please tell me your joking. and if your not give me the best source you have/or point me in the direction. I heard something similar, but only about Prescott bush. please tell me ur jokeing I'm gullible and take nothing for granted anymore.
lorerax1 3 years ago
Do a google search; heaps of stuff will come up. I personally don't like to believe this sort of stuff but there are pictures that show a surprising resemblance between Barbara and Aleister
maxine2win 3 years ago
right duh. sorry bout that.
lorerax1 3 years ago
did you do a google search?
maxine2win 3 years ago
yeah yeah
I googled
George W. Bush, Barbara Bush, and Aleister Crowley
then picked the "Was Aleister Crowley
Barbara Bush's Father?" link
Look i know I know nothing, theirs just so much to do. I literary just answered 3 comments from 3 dif people youtube is almost my life. I put this kind of stuff in the back of my mind.
lorerax1 3 years ago
The only people who win elections are the Christofascist corporate criminals who run these politicians. The rest of us are fucked up the ass twenty times a day.
NotSoOldHippy 3 years ago
move to canada, enjoy a responsible government!
SpanerMagnet 3 years ago
Haha! Responsible government... now those are two words you don't very often hear together.
Th0ughtm0nger 3 years ago
"Haha! Responsible government... now those are two words you don't very often hear together."
Much like Military Intelligence ;-)
mandolinic 3 years ago
or "Microsoft Works"
Jermbot15 3 years ago
Polls Smolls.
Obama will lose the election because of other factors like....he sat in a racist church for 20 years, he friends with an unrepentent terrorist, he enterted into a shady land deak with a convicted slumlord (Hillary's own words), his wife is angry all the time (like Kerry's Wife), he's talks about middle class voters behind their back, he's weak on national defense, he's on a junior senator, he voted over 180 times present in the Illinois Senate, he dissed Hillary, and on and on..
thepoliticalmind 3 years ago
Palin lost the election for McCain, if McCain(god forbid) would have die in office, she would be president... ya, tell me that isn't the stuff nightmares are made of. I'll take a angry black women giving a speech every once in awhile over a redneck cencorship happy "hockey mom" who didn't even know what the Bush Doctrine was as next in line for the presidency in a worst case scenario.
adsensus 3 years ago
That's a highly likely worst case scenario. Hopefully the Reps will say some dumb shit that the media swarms.
elan2000 3 years ago
The cheesy 80's music is distracting.
cincinnatusnow 3 years ago
2xgoodx4xu7997 "he sucks balls just like u do god". Thank you for the lulz.
You just told a god that he sucks balls.
Mephistophilus 3 years ago
good.
money 'market' should be replaced!
Yes, Congress must act AGAINST Bush. It is time to take our country from Paulson-bush-criminal Inc. for Congress belongs to the people . those who voted against this shameful robbery , are USA heroes who are swim against the current of corruption.
End of BLOODY EARA of BUSH DINASTY.
woodyaan 3 years ago
Oh no! Just because one person is ahead 60-40 doesn't mean they only have a 60% chance to win. If the poll was 80-20, would the underdog win 20% of the time? Of course not. Whoever is ahead, by any margin of 3+ points, is much more likely to win.
fermium77 3 years ago
There's another big reason why Faux News won't use this method--it isn't currently producing the result they want.
DarthServo 3 years ago
Uhm, wouldn't do a meta-analyses of inherently flawed polls, still yield an inaccurate result? Or are you assuming that all of the are slanted in opposite directions, cancelling eachother out?
You could make that claim for a hundred polls, but considering a small number (say a dozen) that's quite an assumption to make.
alcari 3 years ago
Oh, and Gallup is spelled with a "u"
Japanzor 3 years ago
I go onto fivethirtyeight EVERY SINGLE DAY
I'M ADDICTED TO IT
Oh, and sometime I go to RCP
Japanzor 3 years ago
dude shut up you just want obama 2 win and he sucks balls just like u do god
2xgoodx4xu7997 3 years ago
Will you please register your power video maker.
kkehoe5 3 years ago
No way, I wouldn't recognize CDK's vids without "unregistered power video maker" in the lower corner.
Jermbot15 3 years ago
HAHHAHA LOL HHAHAHA The "Unregistered PowerVideoMaker" it's a classic :)
ozpowermo 3 years ago
send him a key then.
alcari 3 years ago
It's just as bad in Britain by some presenters. Especially now you have the 3 party politics secnario (kind of).
micky382 3 years ago
oh, you have a 3 party scenario? we're jealous over here......... our third parties never win anything, and are useless. so, we're forced to choose either the theocrats or the bleeding-heart liberals..... either way screwing us over.
bl4ckd0g187 3 years ago
Agreed.
Mephistophilus 3 years ago
Warning rant coming.
You're either too conservative or too liberal.
Too this or too that. Must like this or you can't like that. "Listen to my thoughts & feelings." Ok. Cool, I don't agree with you put you're welcome to it. Here are my thoughts. "Free thinker? Multi faceted? Don't subscribe to generalizations or follow anything blindly? What? That's the American way you fucking god hating traitor"
We the people is Me the people.
Mephistophilus 3 years ago
Forgot to add or not conservative or liberal enough. Thanks for posting cdk007.
Mephistophilus 3 years ago
Campbell Soup Co. was the only stock in the S&P 500 that escaped yesterday's historic sell-off. Thats right: 499 fell, and just one rose - - - Take that Greenwich, Conn - - you greedy bastards - - - -
SuperDoopz 3 years ago
Vote for Captain torpedo as your next president and i will put an end to the stock market crash
go watch the video in my channel to see for yourself...it is flawless
CaptainnTorpedo 3 years ago
GREAT video!!!!
makeyanoticeme 3 years ago
Guess what? Obama or McCain, it doesn't matter. Maybe if you spent more time looking at voting records and thinking about issues, you'd realize you're lost in "election theatre"
juice797 3 years ago
i couldnt watch the video i was to busy thinking about arrested development and jobe doing his little dance before his majic show
laxguy22655 3 years ago
Dangerous video you got here...
Linking up a Princeton site? Asking the viewers to think? ELITE! ELITE! The reds will scream!
Good job at offering an alternative view on the analysis.
ezsharedock 3 years ago
Obama's up by $3 today.
philip1201 3 years ago
So far there's no prediction market on "terrorist attacks in October".
I heard the DOD wanted to start one with the idea being the terrorists themselves would buy in before an attack (insider trading) to make a profit, but this would tip us off. It was canceled because it was seen as unpatriotic to gamble people would be blown up.
cdk007 3 years ago
unpatriotic to gamble on people being blown up? bollocks! gambling is gambling, doesn't mean your gambling causes the attack. but it would be stupid for terrorists to bet that they'd attack, because it WOULD tip us off. so it probably wouldn't work.
bl4ckd0g187 3 years ago
OMFG! thats bloody genius!
its a load better than scaring everybody with the rainbow of death warning system they had a couple years back.
SpanerMagnet 3 years ago
why are you responding to ME making that claim? I was agreeing with cdk007; he deserves the credit for pointing out this logical hole in the idea.
bl4ckd0g187 3 years ago
bah clicked wrong reply button..
SpanerMagnet 3 years ago
This video made me happy. :O
SkepticalStudent 3 years ago
If anyone knows of any other good unbiased sites I'll be happy to add them to the list.
cdk007 3 years ago
I'm feeling a bit better now, but my inner pessimist is still worried.
TheBronzeDog 3 years ago
Oh good, if mccain-palin isn't going to win I can vote 3rd party.
borrofburi 3 years ago
You have to look at what state you live in
If you are in a swing state voting for a 3rd party is a little like not voting at all
maxine2win 3 years ago
While I understand the logic of your statement, your concept of voting for a 3rd party as "not voting at all" is flawed.
borrofburi 3 years ago 2
I'm not saying that a vote for a 3rd is just the same as not voting. I'm saying it's similar because, in effect, a 3rd party vote has no bearing on the final result due the plural voting system. Implicit in my statement is accepting that a given 3rd party has no hope of winning. Of course the only way for a 3rd party to ever have any hope is to get voters. If you really care about the outcome and you live in a swing state I would recommend voting for the main candidate of your choice
maxine2win 3 years ago
One should not even look at the predictions. The popularity contest known as democracy should not be influenced by the likelihood of one particular candidate winning.
jesokingcryst 3 years ago 5
Look everybody.
Someone is speaking truth on the internet.
Behold truth, in its rarity.
waveoflight 3 years ago 2
Someone has to state the obvious because the larger the crowd the bigger is the chance for someone really ignorant or stupid who can benefit from it.
jesokingcryst 3 years ago
No, but for those of us who don't live in swing states where people's opinions sway like straw in the wind, and who have actually researched the candidates already, its fun to see what the rest of the country is thinking.
cdk007 3 years ago
Real progress can only be made when the majority is ashamed of their intellectual standing.
freebaker 3 years ago
I see you use Real Clear Politics. Very informative site.
2ndOfficerCHL 3 years ago
cdk007 does it again!i was WAITING for point at 3:34! If they DID they would have nothing to talk about (drag out).ah. such clarity! thank you cdk007!peace.
practicalmagic9 3 years ago
Good vid, Loved the Swedish music!!
Elol22 3 years ago
Ultimately, if they give predictions, they will affect the vote. Say they predict Obama to win. A large number of Obama supporters will feel safe, and won't vote. Then McCain has a much larger chance. Instead, if they do stupid pointless crap, they can try to get more voters out to get a solid election with many people voting from all sides. I doubt they would realize that tho. Either way, I like those methods, and will be watching them more closely.
IdleGod 3 years ago 2
Thank you for these excellent resources, cdk007. These statistics are far more reliable than Faux News!
asteroth876 3 years ago
As if Faux News was ever reliable (even a little bit).
cdk007 3 years ago
This deal was WAY too political
SuperiorSavior 3 years ago
You are a valuable asset to YouTube, cdk007.
deconstrained 3 years ago 4
I feel like I've just been Rick-rolled
chuckfaststrat 3 years ago
ivy league schools LOL hmmm maybe that math class could teach you about the fact that Elect. College is a SUM and not a MEAN number. Even better about POLL WEIGHT which those polls give Blacks answering 2x weight of a white person. Why do they get to vote 2 x? How about using last elections exit polls as weight OH NO MR BILL. That puts John McCain up by 16 points Not the goal of this BS MAGIC math you video'd Apply mean to state polls then SUM EC votes Polls with proper weight not hype.
GunMuse 3 years ago
GunMuse, if you understood the math, perhaps you'd realize why you've put your foot in your mouth. He didn't split up the electoral votes; rather, he split up the probability of obtaining said votes (gained from polls) and weighted the probabilities by the number of electoral votes for the state in question. It's not "creative math;" it's accurate statistics.
Furthermore, the last presidential election's polls happened BEFORE the financial crisis, not after, ergo it has no weight. Money talks.
PrometheusWithLight 3 years ago
What poll are you talking about. Polls are balanced and weighted to reflect the electorate, i.e. if they happen to randomly sample many more senior citizens than they know are out there, they will adjust the weight of seniors down for that poll. It's not racist, its statistics.
cdk007 3 years ago
As a smug econ major, I would definitely say that markets like intrade are highly effective. The aggregation of information is extremely powerful.
jct329 3 years ago 3
As another economist, I have never really overcome my sense of awe when I see these emergent systems. Perhaps I am just easily impressed.
Xorinite 3 years ago
'Thinking' is hard and it hurts, I try not to think about thinking in case I break something.
SuperTwit 3 years ago
Dude, that was a bad, repetitive song in the '80's I'm sorry I listened to it again. Warn us next time, so we can watch an otherwise good video without sound....
mpekarek1 3 years ago 2
In a way it's an ironic reference to doomsday/apocalyptic warnings, like "in 'this generation' we have the final times" , oh no, the year 1000, oh no (insert a heapload of end of time warnings from jehovahs, joneses, etc) the year 2k, 2012, 2038 etc...
MrFacet 3 years ago
Speak for yourself. A lot of people like that song, and it was fitting given the content of the video.
ltflermy 3 years ago
dude fuck you
that song is classic
and the vid was awesome, thanks for the info cdk
thepoison1627 3 years ago
*
Great educational video about how to really identify trends.
Yest TV is already a waste of time.
*
honestlycorrect 3 years ago
It is like government; the purpose is to get elected and stay elected. The media keep the hype high and make it seem like a contest, so they get more viewers. The Mccain campaign is the best tool out there to get Obama elected. The election will see Obama win by 15-20%, or possibly more. The GOP are doing their flat out best to rig the voting machines but they won't be successful. There will be no military, Oct surprise, because the military no longer listens to Bush. The election will be fair.
rollsthepaul 3 years ago
elections are never fair.
We have two corrupted parties full of shit debate over which one is less corrupted.
It's anything but fair.
Unfortunately the system fucks over 3rd parties. American politics suck
Caturdayz 3 years ago 6
That music reminds me of Arrested Development - a brilliant show!
TheDoubtingApproach 3 years ago